Tehran:

The election of relative moderate Masoud Pezeshkian as Iran’s president has lifted the hopes of Iranians yearning for social freedoms and better relations with the West, but few expect big policy changes.

Iran’s ruling clerics’ political fortunes’ rely on tackling economic hardship, so Pezeshkian may have a comparatively strong hand to revive the economy, but his scope to permit social freedoms will be limited, insiders and analysts said.

Under Iran’s dual system of clerical and republican rule, the president cannot usher in any major policy shift on Iran’s nuclear programme or foreign policy, since Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei calls all the shots on top state matters.

However, the president can influence the tone of policy and he will be closely involved in selecting the successor to Khamenei, now 85. 

Hardliners, entrenched in institutions Khamenei controls such as the judiciary, armed forces and the media, have in the past blocked either the new opening to the West or domestic liberalisation.

Khamenei has set out guidelines he would like to see in the new government by counselling Pezeshkian to continue the policies of hardline President Ebrahim Raisi, who was killed in a helicopter crash in May.

“Pezeshkian self-identifies as a ‘principlist’ – someone committed to the ideological principles of the revolution – and has been clear about his devotion to the Revolutionary Guards and Khamenei,” said Karim Sadjadpour, an associate at the Carnegie Endowment in Washington.

Will Iran Change Its Stance On The Nuclear Standoff?

Pezeshkian, a 69-year-old former heart surgeon, won Iran’s run-off presidential vote last week and is yet to be sworn in.

He has pledged to promote a pragmatic foreign policy and ease tensions with the six major powers that have been involved in now-stalled nuclear talks to revive a 2015 nuclear pact.

Undoubtedly, analysts said, Pezeshkian’s victory was a setback for hawks such as his rival, hardliner Saeed Jalili, who opposed any opening to the West and revival of the nuclear pact.

Jalili’s supporters have criticised a hardline watchdog body for allowing Pezeshkian to run, with insiders suggesting that this decision was made by Khamenei to secure a high turnout amid consistently low participation in elections since 2020.

Pezeshkian hopes that revived talks with the West would lead to a lifting of tough U.S. sanctions, given growing popular discontent over economic hardships.

However, White House spokesperson John Kirby said on Monday the United States was not ready to resume nuclear talks with Iran under the new president.

For Pezeshkian the stakes are high. The president could become politically vulnerable if he fails to revive the pact, which then-U.S. President Donald Trump ditched in 2018 and reimposed harsh sanctions on Iran.

“He has a difficult path ahead … Pezeshkian’s inability to revive the pact will weaken the president and also lead to a backlash against the pro-reform camp who backed him,” said a senior reformist former official.

A restoration of ties with the United States, which Iran’s rulers have called the “Great Satan” since taking power in a 1979 revolution, remains out of the question.

Will The Economy See A Boom?

As the economy remains the Achilles heel for Khamenei, breaking free of the crippling U.S. sanctions, which have cost Iran billions of dollars in income from oil, will remain the top economic goal for Pezeshkian.

Spiralling prices and constricted spending power have left millions of Iranians struggling against a combination of sanctions and mismanagement.

Khamenei knows the economic struggle is a persistent challenge for the ruling clerics, who fear a revival of protests that have erupted since 2017 among lower- and middle-income people angry at enduring hardship.

“Failure to improve the economy will lead to street protests, particularly now that people have high hopes because of Pezeshkian’s campaign promises,” said an insider who is close to Khamenei.

Iran’s economic outlook looks ever more uncertain, analysts say, with the possible return of Trump as U.S. president considered likely to lead to tougher enforcement of oil sanctions.

Will Strict Social Restrictions Change?

Pezeshkian enjoys an insider status and close relationship with the theocratic Khamenei, and may be able to build bridges between factions to yield moderation, but this would not enable him to bring about the fundamental changes that many pro-reform Iranians demand.

Pezeshkian, analysts said, is highly likely to end up in a similar position to his predecessors – reformist President Mohammad Khatami and pragmatist Hassan Rouhani – who whetted Iranians’ appetite for change but ultimately were blocked by hardliners in the dominant elite of clerics and the powerful Revolutionary Guards.

“Pezeshkian is neither a reformist nor a moderate … As a foot soldier of Khamanei, Pezeshkian will be subjected to his wishes which clearly has been to rule by violence and repression,” said Hadi Ghaemi, executive director of New York-based advocacy group the Centre for Human Rights in Iran (CHRI).

As a lawmaker in 2022, Pezeshkian criticised the establishment over the death in custody of young Iranian woman Mahsa Amini, which triggered months of unrest in Iran.

Will Iran Change Its Regional Policy?

Unlikely. The top authority in regional policy is not the president, but the Guards, who answer only to Khamenei.

Pezeshkian is taking office at a time of escalating Middle East tensions over the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Signalling no change in Iran’s regional policies, Pezeshkian reaffirmed on Monday Iran’s anti-Israel stance and its support for resistance movements across the region

“Supporting the resistance of the people in the region against the illegitimate Zionist regime (Israel) is rooted in the fundamental policies of the Islamic Republic,” Pezeshkian said in a message to the Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

Cars drive past a billboard bearing a portrait of Iran’s late president Ebrahim Raisi, centre, his Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, second from left, and other members of his entrourage in central Tehran on May 21, 2024, as mourners in the northestern city of Tabriz attended a funeral procession for the President and seven others who were killed with him in a helicopter accident two days ago.
| Photo Credit: AFP

Being Iran’s President is not easy. The highest elected office in the country is not the most powerful one. The President is answerable to the Supreme Leader, who is appointed by a body of senior clerics. The President’s main responsibility is to run the day-to-day affairs of the country, especially its crisis-ridden, sanctions-hit economy. The President also has to run a delicate foreign policy in a hostile region where its only national state ally is Syria, which itself has been battered by years of civil war. The President has to do a lot of balancing acts at home as well, keeping the link between popular legitimacy and clerical rule alive, while also working with the security apparatus, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), to protect Tehran’s key geopolitical interests.

Also read: A brief look at the life of Ebrahim Raisi

Ebrahim Raisi, the 63-year-old hardline cleric who became Iran’s eighth President in August 2021, was doing just that, until May 19, 2024, when he was killed in a helicopter crash. In many ways, Iran’s clerical establishment found a near-perfect leader in Raisi. He was an ideologically committed loyal servant of Iran’s theocratic system. A cleric and a close confidant of the Supreme Leader, Raisi was seen as a potential successor to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. And his death comes as a massive shock for the Islamic Republic.

Immediate priority

Iran faces three broad challenges in the wake of Raisi’s death. Tehran’s immediate priority is to put in place an orderly transition so that the “nation would not be disrupted at all”, as Mr. Khamenei has said. According to the Constitution, if the President is incapacitated, the First Vice-President would assume interim duties and fresh elections should be held in 50 days. Mr. Khamenei has already approved First Vice-President Mohammad Mokhber as acting head of the executive branch of the state. Now, it’s the responsibility of Mr. Mokhber, parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf and Chief Justice Gholamhossein Mohseni-Ejei to hold elections within the timeframe. Authorities have already announced that elections would be held on June 28.

When Raisi became President, all branches of Iran’s government — executive, judiciary and legislature — came under the control of conservatives. In the parliamentary elections held earlier this year, conservatives retained their dominance. But what worries the establishment is the dwindling turnout. For years, Iran’s clerical leadership would use high voter turnout as a marker of legitimacy for the country’s system. If the voter turnout was 85% in the 2009 presidential elections, it fell to 48% in 2021 when Raisi was elected. When the country is preparing to hold a snap election, the establishment would like to see not just the election of another conservative as President but also a high turnout.

Larger transition

Secondly, Raisi’s abrupt death did disrupt Iran’s bigger transition plans as well. Mr. Khamenei, the most powerful man in Iran, is 85 years old and ailing. He became the Supreme Leader in 1989 when Ayatollah Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic Republic died. Many Iran watchers saw Raisi as an ideal candidate to succeed Mr. Khamenei. Raisi was relatively young, ideologically committed, had the blessings of the establishment and successfully negotiated between the different branches of the state and made his standing more powerful ever since his election. But now, Iran has to start from scratch to find Mr. Khamenei’s successor. Different names are being added to the list, including Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the Supreme Leader, and Alireza Arafi, an influential white-turbaned cleric who heads Friday prayers at the Qom Shia seminary.

Regional dynamics

Lastly, Raisi’s death comes at a time when regional tensions are at an all-time high. After the Israel-Hamas war began on October 7, 2023, regional focus shifted to Iran’s support of non-state actors in West Asia, including Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthis. Last month, Iran launched an unprecedented drone and missile attack on Israel, after its consulate in Damascus was struck and officers killed. Hezbollah, which is directly backed by Iran, is fighting a slow-burning war with Israel on its northern border. Houthis, the Yemeni militia backed by Iran, is carrying out attacks targeting vessels in the Red Sea, “in solidarity with Palestinians”.

In recent months, Iran has flexed its muscles both through its proxies and directly in the region. A change in presidency is unlikely to alter Iran’s overall security doctrine, which has been laid out by the clerical and military establishment. But for the smooth implementation of this multi-layered security strategy, which involves both state and non-state actors, in a hostile region, Iran needs a cohesive national leadership. The challenge before the Ayatollahs is to stay the political course irrespective of the disruptions.

Tehran, Iran:

Iran’s first vice president, Mohammad Mokhber, is expected assume the presidency after Ebrahim Raisi’s death in a helicopter crash as the country gears up for early elections.

The Iranian constitution stipulates that the first vice president take over “in the event of the president’s death, dismissal, resignation, absence or illness for more than two months”.

Raisi, who died on Sunday along with Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian and other officials, was nearing the end of his first four-year term as president.

Mokhber’s interim appointment requires the approval of Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has the final word in all state affairs.

Presidential elections to pick a permanent successor are to be held within 50 days, according to the constitution.

A council made up of the parliament speaker, head of the judiciary and the vice president are to be tasked with organising the national vote.

Mokhber, 68, was appointed vice president as Raisi took office in August 2021.

The vice president was born in Dezful city in the southwestern province of Khuzestan, where he held several official positions.

For years since 2007, Mokhber chaired the Execution of Imam Khomeini’s Order, a governmental organisation tasked with managing properties confiscated following the 1979 Islamic revolution.

The foundation, established in the 1980s, has over the years grown to become a major state economic conglomerate with shares in various sectors.

Iranians head to the polls for presidential elections every four years since the Islamic republic’s first vote in 1980.

The constitution sets a two-term limit for Iranian presidents.

The position of prime minister does not exist in Iran, and the president — assisted by several vice presidents — is responsible for appointing and directing the cabinet.

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)