Thousands of fighters from Iran-backed groups in the Middle East are ready to come to Lebanon to join with the militant Hezbollah group in its battle with Israel if the simmering conflict escalates into a full-blown war, officials with Iran-backed factions and analysts say.

Almost daily exchanges of fire have occurred along Lebanon’s frontier with northern Israel since fighters from the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip staged a bloody assault on southern Israel in early October that set off a war in Gaza.

The situation to the north worsened this month after an Israeli airstrike killed a senior Hezbollah military commander in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah retaliated by firing hundreds of rockets and explosive drones into northern Israel.

Israeli officials have threatened a military offensive in Lebanon if there is no negotiated end to push Hezbollah away from the border.

Over the past decade, Iran-backed fighters from Lebanon, Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan fought together in Syria’s 13-year conflict, helping tip the balance in favour of Syrian President Bashar Assad. Officials from Iran-backed groups say they could also join together again against Israel.

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said in a speech Wednesday that militant leaders from Iran, Iraq, Syria, Yemen and other countries have previously offered to send tens of thousands of fighters to help Hezbollah, but he said the group already has more than 1,00,000 fighters.

“We told them, thank you, but we are overwhelmed by the numbers we have,” Nasrallah said.

Nasrallah said the battle in its current form is using only a portion of Hezbollah’s manpower, an apparent reference to the specialized fighters who fire missiles and drones.

But that could change in the event of an all-out war. Nasrallah hinted at that possibility in a speech in 2017 in which he said fighters from Iran, Iraq, Yemen, Afghanistan and Pakistan “will be partners” of such a war.

Officials from Lebanese and Iraqi groups backed by Iran say Iran-backed fighters from around the region will join in if war erupts on the the Lebanon-Israel border. Thousands of such fighters are already deployed in Syria and could easily slip through the porous and unmarked border.

Some of the groups have already staged attacks on Israel and its allies since the Israel-Hamas war started October 7. The groups from the so-called “axis of resistance” say they are using a “unity of arenas strategy” and they will only stop fighting when Israel ends its offensive in Gaza against their ally, Hamas.

“We will be (fighting) shoulder to shoulder with Hezbollah” if an all-out war breaks out, one official with an Iran-backed group in Iraq told The Associated Press in Baghdad, insisting on speaking anonymously to discuss military matters. He refused to give further details.

The official, along with another from Iraq, said some advisers from Iraq are already in Lebanon.

An official with a Lebanese Iran-backed group, also insisting on anonymity, said fighters from Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces, Afghanistan’s Fatimiyoun, Pakistan Zeinabiyoun and the Iran-backed rebel group in Yemen known as Houthis could come to Lebanon to take part in a war.

Qassim Qassir, an expert on Hezbollah, agreed the current fighting is mostly based on high technology such as firing missiles and does not need a large number of fighters. But if a war broke out and lasted for a long period, Hezbollah might need support from outside Lebanon, he said.

“Hinting to this matter could be (a message) that these are cards that could be used,” he said.

Israel is also aware of the possible influx of foreign fighters.

Eran Etzion, former head of policy planning for the Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said at a panel discussion hosted by the Washington-based Middle East Institute on Thursday that he sees “a high probability” of a “multi-front war.”

He said there could be intervention by the Houthis and Iraqi militias and a “massive flow of jihadists from (places) including Afghanistan, Pakistan” into Lebanon and into Syrian areas bordering Israel.

Daniel Hagari, Israel’s military spokesman, said in a televised statement this past week that since Hezbollah started its attacks on Israel on October 8, it has fired more than 5,000 rockets, anti-tank missiles and drones toward Israel.

“Hezbollah’s increasing aggression is bringing us to the brink of what could be a wider escalation, one that could have devastating consequences for Lebanon and the entire region,” Hagari said. “Israel will continue fighting against Iran’s axis of evil on all fronts.”

Hezbollah officials have said they don’t want an all-out war with Israel but if it happens they are ready.

“We have taken a decision that any expansion, no matter how limited it is, will be faced with an expansion that deters such a move and inflicts heavy Israeli losses,” Hezbollah’s deputy leader, Naim Kassem, said in a speech this past week.

The U.N. special coordinator for Lebanon, Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert, and the commander of the U.N. peacekeeping force deployed along Lebanon’s southern border, Lt. Gen. Aroldo Lázaro, said in a joint statement that “the danger of miscalculation leading to a sudden and wider conflict is very real.”

The last large-scale conflict between Israel and Hezbollah occurred in the summer of 2006, when the two fought a 34-day war that killed about 1,200 people in Lebanon and 140 in Israel.

Since the latest run of clashes began, more than 400 people have been killed in Lebanon, the vast majority of them fighters but including 70 civilians and non-combatants. On the Israeli side, 16 soldiers and 11 civilians have been killed. Tens of thousands have been displaced on both sides of the border.

Qassir, the analyst, said that if foreign fighters did join in, it would help them that they fought together in Syria in the past.

“There is a common military language between the forces of axis of resistance and this is very important in fighting a joint battle,” he said.

Officers stand near the Israeli Embassy in Stockholm, Sweden in January, 2024. File.
| Photo Credit: AP

Iran is recruiting members of Swedish criminal gangs, some of them children, as proxies to commit “acts of violence” against Israel and other states and groups in Sweden that Tehran considers a threat, Sweden’s intelligence agency said on May 30.

The announcement came two weeks after nighttime gunfire was reported outside Israel’s embassy in Stockholm and three months after police found an unexploded grenade lying on the grounds of the Israeli compound.

“The Swedish Security Police notes that the Iranian regime is using criminal networks in Sweden to carry out acts of violence against other states, groups or people in Sweden that it considers a threat,” the intelligence service, commonly known as Sapo, said in a statement.

It cited in particular “Israeli and Jewish interests, targets and operations in Sweden”.

“Iran has previously used violence in other countries in Europe in a bid to silence critical voices and perceived threats against its regime,” it said.

“Our assessment is that this is a regional conflict that has spread globally and now also includes Sweden as an arena for this conflict,” the head of Sapo’s counterintelligence service Daniel Stenling told a press conference.

He said “very young individuals, even children, can be used to carry out Iranian activities that threaten security in Sweden”.

The Scandinavian country has struggled to contain surging gang violence in recent years, with shootings and bombings now weekly occurrences across the country.

The gang violence was originally linked to control over the drugs market.

Sapo said it was collaborating with the police, military and international allies “to meet the threat from Iran”.

A wave of risk aversion swept over markets on Friday and sent investors chasing after traditional safety assets such as the Swiss franc and the yen following reports that Israel attacked Iran in an escalation of conflict in the Middle East. 

Markets initially reacted sharply to the news, which sparked a huge selloff in risk assets, caused oil and gold prices to surge, and ignited a rally in U.S. Treasuries and safe-haven currencies.Some of those moves were later retraced as few details emerged about the attack and an Iranian official told Reuters no missile attack took place. 

Still, the Swiss franc, a traditional safe-haven currency, remained 0.35% higher on the day at 0.9089 per dollar, having rallied 1% earlier in the session. Moves in the Swissie were more pronounced against the euro, with the common currency last 0.4% lower at 0.96685 francs, after sliding as much as 1.5% earlier. 

The yen rose roughly 0.2% to 154.38 per dollar, after having rallied more than 0.6% in a knee-jerk reaction to reports of the attack.”It’s pretty obvious the market is nervous,” said Moh Siong Sim, a currency strategist at Bank of Singapore.”I think markets are at this stage in a flight-to-safety mode … Right now, we’re still in a situation where we know something has happened. But we need to understand the degree of retaliation,” Sim said.- Reuters

The United Nations Security Council meets on the situation in the Middle East at the UN headquarters in New York City on April 18, 2024.
| Photo Credit: AFP

Iran fired air defense batteries early Friday, April 19, 2024 morning after reports of explosions near the city of Isfahan, the state-run IRNA news agency reported.

It remained unclear if the country was under attack. However, tensions remain high in the wider Middle East after Iran’s unprecedented missile-and-drone attack on Israel.

IRNA said the defenses fired across several provinces. It did not elaborate on what caused the batteries to fire, though people across the area reported hearing the sounds.

The semiofficial Fars and Tasnim news agencies reported the sound of blasts, without giving a cause. State television acknowledged “loud noise” in the area.

Earlier, the commercial flights began diverting their routes over western Iran without explanation early Friday as one semiofficial news agency in the Islamic Republic reported “explosions” heard over the city of Isfahan. State television acknowledged “loud noise.”

The incident comes as tensions remain high in the wider Middle East after Iran’s unprecedented missile-and-drone attack on Israel.

Dubai-based carriers Emirates and FlyDubai began diverting around western Iran about 4:30 a.m. local time. They offered no explanation, though local warnings to aviators suggested the airspace may have been closed.

The semiofficial Fars news agency reported on explosions being heard over Isfahan near its international airport. It offered no explanation. However, Isfahan is home to a major airbase for the Iranian military, as well as sites associated with its nuclear program.

Iranian state television began a scrolling, on-screen alert acknowledging a “loud noise” near Isfahan, without immediately elaborating.

The Israeli military did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Iran’s Ambassador to India Iraj Elahi.
| Photo Credit: The Hindu

India can play an important role in stopping Israel’s operations in Gaza, said Iran’s Ambassador to India Iraj Elahi, adding that Iran would also “welcome” any mediatory role by India to bring peace and stability to the region.

Mr. Elahi said Iran has kept India fully briefed about last week’s air attack on Israel, and said its main objectives, to “deter Israel” and demonstrate the “possible costs of transgressing red lines”, had been achieved. The U.S. White House has described Iran’s attack, sending about 350 drones and missiles on Israeli targets on April 13, a “spectacular and embarrassing failure”, as more than 90% were intercepted by the US, Israel and Jordan.

“This is what Israel and Western countries say. But the reality is something else, and the Israeli regime understood what Iran’s missile capability is. Every operation has its own objective. The main objective of this operation was to deter Israel and to warn them of the dangerous consequences of their reckless deeds,” Mr. Elahi told The Hindu in a written response to a question about the US statement. He said the operations had “proven” that all the “vital military bases” of the Israeli Defence Forces would be “easily accessible” if Iran decided to use “more developed weapons”.

Iran has said its attacks were a “legitimate” response to Israel’s bombing of the Iranian Embassy building in Damascus on April 1 that killed seven military advisors including a senior Iranian general, which Mr. Elahi said was a violation of the Vienna Convention and other conventions on the protection for diplomats. The Ministry of External Affairs’ response to both Israel’s attack and Iran’s counterattack has been seen as neutral, with no direct condemnation of either country but expressing serious concerns about the escalation of tensions in the region.

“I cannot speak for the Indian government. Each country has its own position in such situations. But what is certain is that attacking diplomatic places is prohibited according to international conventions,” Mr. Elahi said. He said India should condemn Israeli operations in Gaza in retaliation for the October 7 terror attacks by Hamas, that left more than 1,200 Israelis dead, and dozens taken hostage. More than 35,000 Palestinians have been killed in Israeli operations since then, mostly women and children.

“We believe that India can play a very important role in stopping” Israel operations in Gaza, Mr. Elahi said, adding that “the Indian government can play an active role in condemning these actions of Israel.” When asked whether India could play mediator in the region given its strong strategic ties with both Iran and Israel, the Iranian Ambassador said his government would “welcome any action to reduce tension and establish peace and stability in the region”.

Israel’s Ambassador Naor Gilon has said Iran’s attacks “cannot go unanswered”. “We have to make it clear to Iran that these are unacceptable, and our capabilities to retaliate are reasonable,” he told various news channels this week.

The Iranian Ambassador also said bilateral cooperation with India over the Chabahar port project, where India operates a terminal, is “going well”, and promised that there would be “good news in this regard in the coming days”. When asked about India’s 2018 decision to cancel import of Iranian oil due to U.S. sanctions, Mr. Elahi said that as an oil exporter, Iran was ready to sell to any country. “If there is a request from the Indian government to buy oil, Iran will definitely welcome it,” he added.