After Iran mourned president Ebrahim Raisi, who died in a recent helicopter crash, the nation’s focus turns to an election next month for his successor, with the conservative camp seeking a loyalist to supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

The lead-up to the early vote on June 28 has opened up the field to a broad range of hopefuls from all political parties. The big question for them is how many candidacies will survive the vetting process in the Islamic republic.

Ultraconservative Raisi, who had more than a year left of his first term, died on May 19 alongside his foreign minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian and six others when their helicopter crashed into a fog-shrouded mountainside.

They were laid to rest in multi-day funeral rites drawing mass crowds of mourners.

The June vote will be held during a turbulent time, as the Gaza war rages between Iran’s arch-foe Israel and Tehran-backed Palestinian militant group Hamas, and amid continued diplomatic tensions over Iran’s nuclear programme.

Iran also faces sustained economic hardship, exacerbated by tough international sanctions reimposed after the United States withdrew from a landmark 2015 nuclear deal, and in the aftermath of widespread anti-government protests.

Mr. Khamenei, who has the final say in all matters of state, has assigned Raisi’s vice president, Mohammad Mokhber, 68, to assume interim duties for the next few weeks and organise the June election.

Media reports suggest Mr. Mokhber himself plans to run for Iran’s second-highest post, as do parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and several prominent former officials.

Among other hopefuls, ultraconservative former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili was one of the first to announce his candidacy.

Other contenders include moderate former foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, and centrist Ali Larijani, who served as the speaker in parliament.

Populist ex-president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has so far kept voters guessing and said he is “checking the conditions to decide whether to register”.

“We have to wait for positive developments in the country,” he added.

Vetting process

Iran was rocked from late 2022 by nationwide protests sparked by the death in custody of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old Iranian Kurd, following her arrest in Tehran over an alleged breach of the strict dress code for women.

Hundreds of people including dozens of security personnel were killed and thousands were arrested.

Political expert Abbas Abdi told the reformist newspaper Hammihan that if Iran’s “protesting community” sees an opportunity for change, it “will show its protest, activism and responsibility through participating in the election”.

He said that he was “sure that the reformists will win with a huge margin”, but only if they are allowed to participate — a major concern after many candidates were disqualified ahead of recent elections.

Mr. Abdi added that if the authorities permit a broad spectrum of candidates to run this time, “it will create the necessary hope in the people and lead to high participation”.

Under Iran’s election process, candidates will have several days to formally register, starting on May 30.

The final list, however, will depend on the outcome of the validation process by the conservative-dominated Guardian Council following a June 3 registration deadline.

The 12-member body, which is in charge of overseeing elections, had previously barred many candidates, among them Ahmadinejad and Larijani.

Recent parliamentary and presidential elections have seen plunging turnout, despite efforts by the authorities to encourage people to vote.

Ahead of Iran’s parliamentary elections held on March 1, the Guardian Council disqualified tens of thousands of candidates.

With many of them reformists and moderates, the vetting effectively helped Iran’s conservative and ultraconservative politicians tighten their grip on power.

The March legislative vote saw the lowest turnout since 1979.

Low voter turnout

The 2021 election that brought Raisi to power also saw many reformist and moderate figures disqualified from the race, and the turnout hit a record low for any presidential polls in Iran.

During his years in office, Raisi faced a barrage of criticism from former officials and activists, including over his handling of an already fragile economy.

Raging inflation, rampant unemployment and record currency depreciation dogged Raisi’s presidency, while his government failed to clinch a deal with Washington to revive the nuclear deal and lift sanctions.

He also faced criticism for the government’s handling of the street protests sparked by Amini’s death.

More recently, spillover from the Gaza war saw tensions with Israel skyrocket and climax in mid-April when Iran carried out its first-ever direct attack against Israel.

Iranian forces and allied groups unleashed hundreds of drones and missiles, most of which were intercepted by Israel and its partners.

Amid all the turmoil, Iran’s leaders have urged a calm election process.

On Monday, the new parliament started its first session with a message from Khamenei calling on the lawmakers to keep away from “useless media contests and harmful political controversies”.

Iranian women fill out their ballots before casting their vote, during elections to select members of parliament and a key clerical body, in Tehran on March 1, 2024.
| Photo Credit: AFP

Iranian conservatives secured the bulk of seats in elections for a key clerical body and the national legislature, local media reported, estimating a record low turnout.

Authorities were still counting ballots two days after Friday’s vote for members of parliament and for the Assembly of Experts, which selects the Islamic republic’s supreme leader.

Also Read | Iranians go to vote burdened by economic pain and unmoved by promises

The vote was the first since protests broke out over the September 2022 death of Mahsa Amini, 22, an Iranian Kurd who had ben arrested for allegedly violating the strict dress code for women.

The election, in which a vetting process barred many hopefuls from running, took place with Iran suffering a severe economic crisis deepened by international sanctions.

The official IRNA news agency put the turnout at around “41 percent” among 61 million eligible voters. No official figure had yet been announced.

The reformist daily Shargh predicted the next parliament would be “in the hands of radical conservatives” who “took advantage of the opportunity created by the low participation”.

Etemad, another reformist newspaper, reported that turnout was lower in Iran’s bigger cities than its smaller ones, and that there was a significant number of “blank votes”.

Fears of a low turnout had swirled ahead of the elections after a state TV poll found more than half of respondents were indifferent about the elections.

Wake-up call

Turnout in the capital Tehran was around 25%, according to Iranian media, which reported that ultraconservative candidates secured 12 of the 30 parliament seats alloted to the capital.

Some seats have gone to a second round, which will take place in either April or May, IRNA reported.

The pro-government Iran Daily said authorities should see the low turnout as a “wake-up call and redouble their efforts to fortify their support base”.

Reformist daily Ham Mihan said that “the soul of the elections was lost” and that turnout was “far from victorious” which could have “political repercussions” for Iran’s system.

Political analyst Mohammad Mohajeri said conservatives and ultraconservatives will emerge as the main winner in the elections due to “sharp decline in the participation rate”.

A record figure of 15,200 hopefuls were competing for seats in the 290-member parliament.

Another 144 candidates sought a place in the 88-member Assembly of Experts, which is exclusively made up of male Islamic scholars.

By allowing a large pool of candidates, the government wanted “to create local competition and increase participation” to help attract voters, journalist Maziar Khosravi earlier told AFP.

Iran’s 2020 parliament was elected during the Covid pandemic with a turnout of 42.57% — at the time the lowest since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

Former moderate president Hassan Rouhani cast his ballot on Friday despite his disqualification from running for the Assembly of Experts after 24 years of membership.

Another former president, the reformist Mohammad Khatami, was among those who did not vote, according to a coalition of parties called the Reform Front.

In February, Mr. Khatami had said on his official website that Iran is “very far from free and competitive elections”.

Iranians vote during the parliamentary election at a polling station in Tehran, Iran, March 1, 2024.
| Photo Credit: Reuters

A day after parliamentary election concluded in Iran, hard-liners are leading in initial vote counting in the capital of Tehran, state media.

State-run IRNA news agency and state TV said 1,960 from 5,000 ballots in Tehran have been counted so far, based on an interior ministry report which is updated hourly.

Also Read |Iranians go to vote burdened by economic pain and unmoved by promises

Officials have not yet released the total voter turnout. However, IRNA said it was 41%, based on unofficial reports.

In the last parliamentary election in 2019, only 42% of eligible voters headed to the ballot stations. It was considered the lowest turnout since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

Hard-liners have controlled the parliament for the past two decades — with chants of “Death to America” often heard while in session.

Under Iranian law, the parliament has a variety of roles, including overseeing the executive branch and voting on treaties. In practice, absolute power in Iran rests with its supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Friday’s election was the first since the bloody crackdown on the 2022 nationwide protests that followed the death of Mahsa Amini in police custody.

Amini, 22, died on Sept. 16, 2022, after her arrest by Iran’s morality police for allegedly violating the country’s strict headscarf law forcing women to cover their hair and entire bodies. The protests quickly escalated into calls to overthrow Iran’s clerical rulers. In the severe clampdown that followed, over 500 people were killed and nearly 20,000 arrested, according to human rights activists in Iran.