New Delhi:

India is poised to experience more energy demand growth than any other country over the next decade due to its large population and rising demand from all sectors, according to a new report by the International Energy Agency.

The World Energy Outlook 2024 report also said that coal will remain a major part of India’s energy mix for the next few decades, with the country projected to add about 60 gigawatts of new coal-fired power capacity by 2030, even though some older coal plants will retire.

India overtook China in 2023 to become the most populous country in the world, even as its fertility rate dropped below the replacement level.

“The population size and the scale of rising demand from all sectors mean that India is poised to experience more energy demand growth than any other country over the next decade,” the IEA report said.

According to the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), the report said that India is on track to add over 12,000 cars daily to its roads from now until 2035. Built space is expected to increase by over 1 billion square metres annually, which is larger than the total built space in South Africa today.

India’s iron and steel production is on track to grow by 70 per cent by 2035, cement output is set to rise by nearly 55 per cent, and the number of air conditioners is projected to increase by more than 4.5 times, resulting in electricity demand from air conditioners exceeding Mexico’s total expected electricity consumption by that year.

The total energy demand in India is projected to increase by nearly 35 per cent, and its electricity generation capacity is likely to triple to 1,400 GW by 2035.

The IEA said while India is committed to achieving net zero emissions by 2070, coal will continue to play a significant role in the energy mix for the next few decades.

India is expected to add about 60 gigawatts of new coal-fired power capacity by 2030, even though some older coal plants will retire. Coal-based electricity generation is projected to increase by over 15 per cent, the report stated.

Coal provided 40 per cent of the energy used in industries like steel, cement, and manufacturing in 2023. By 2035, coal use in industry is expected to grow by 50 per cent, according to the report.

India, the world’s second-largest consumer of coal for electricity generation after China, saw the share of coal-fired power generation rise to 75 per cent in 2023-24, up from 71 per cent in 2019-20.

According to the IEA, while coal consumption fell in Europe and the US in 2023, it rose by 8 per cent in India and 5 per cent in China.

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

Saudi Aramco, Coal India and Gazprom did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
| Photo Credit: AP

“The vast majority of planet-warming carbondioxide emissions since 2016 can be traced to a group of just 57 fossil fuels and cement producers,” researchers said on April 4.

“From 2016 to 2022, the 57 entities including nation-states, state-owned firms and investor-owned companies produced 80% of the world’s CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and cement production,” said the Carbon Majors report by non-profit think tank InfluenceMap.

“The world’s top three CO2-emitting companies in the period were state-owned oil firm Saudi Aramco, Russia’s state-owned energy giant Gazprom and state-owned producer Coal India,” the report said.

Saudi Aramco, Coal India and Gazprom did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

The report found most companies had expanded their fossil fuel production since 2015, the year when nearly all countries signed the U.N. Paris Agreement, committing to take action to curb climate change.

Since then, while many governments and companies have set tougher emissions targets and rapidly expanded renewable energy, they have also produced and burned more fossil fuels, causing emissions to rise.

“Global energy-related CO2 emissions hit a record high last year,” the International Energy Agency has said.

InfluenceMap said its findings showed that a relatively small group of emitters were responsible for the bulk of ongoing CO2 emissions, and it aimed to increase transparency around which governments and companies were causing climate change.

“It can be used in a variety of cases, ranging from legal processes seeking to hold these producers to account for climate damages, or it can be used by academics in quantifying their contributions, or by campaign groups, or even by investors,” InfluenceMap Programme Manager Daan Van Acker said of the report.

A previous edition of the Carbon Majors database was cited last month in a legal case brought by a Belgian farmer against French oil and gas company TotalEnergies. The farmer argued that as one of the world’s top 20 CO2-emitting companies, TotalEnergies was partly responsible for damage to his operations from extreme weather.

The database was first launched in 2013 by the non-profit research organisation Climate Accountability Institute. It combines companies’ self-reported data on coal, oil and gas production with sources like the U.S. Energy Information Administration, national mining associations and other industry data.

Carroll Muffett, CEO of the non-profit Center for International Environmental Law said the database would improve investors’ and litigators’ ability to track companies’ actions over time.

The Paris-based agency said failing to curb methane leaks from oil and gas projects was a “massive missed opportunity” to prevent losses and reduce emissions of the potent greenhouse gas.
| Photo Credit: AP

“Planet-heating methane released by the fossil fuel industry rose to near record highs in 2023 despite technology available to curb this pollution at virtually no cost,” the International Energy Agency said on March 13.

“Slashing emissions of methane — second only to carbon dioxide for its contribution to global warming — is essential to meeting international targets on climate change,” the IEA said.

The Paris-based agency said failing to curb methane leaks from oil and gas projects was a “massive missed opportunity” to prevent losses and reduce emissions of the potent greenhouse gas.

“Emissions of methane from fossil fuel operations remain unacceptably high… There is no reason for emissions to remain as high as they are,” IEA chief energy economist Tim Gould told reporters ahead of the release of the agency’s annual Global Methane Tracker report.

But he expressed hope that this year “could mark a turning point” — if countries and fossil fuel firms turn their pollution-cutting promises into concrete policies. Methane is responsible for around 30% of the global warming experienced today, according to the UN Environment Programme.

While some 40% of methane is released from natural sources, mainly wetlands, human activities are responsible for the rest. Agriculture is the main source — methane is burped out by livestock such as cows and sheep and emitted during rice cultivation.

That is followed by the energy sector where the methane leaks from energy infrastructure — such as gas pipelines — and from deliberate releases during maintenance.

“This fossil fuel methane pollution has risen three years in a row,” the IEA report said, adding that two thirds of the emissions were from just 10 countries — including China for its methane linked to coal, and the United States for gas, with Russia shortly behind.

Major leaks

Overall, the IEA said the production and burning of fossil fuels resulted in close to 120 million tonnes of methane emissions in 2023, a small rise compared with 2022 and close to the record high in 2019.

“Last year witnessed a surge in large-scale methane leaks,” it said, “including a well blowout in Kazakhstan that lasted more than 200 days.”

“Some 40% of the emissions recorded in 2023 “could have been avoided at no net cost” using tried and tested methods to prevent such leakages,” said IEA energy expert Christophe McGlade. “It still represents a massive missed opportunity,” he said.

Methane is far more powerful than CO2 at trapping heat in the atmosphere but relatively short-lived, making it a key target for countries wanting to slash emissions quickly and slow climate change.

More than 150 countries — including Azerbaijan, host of the next UN climate talks — have promised a 30 percent reduction by 2030. Oil and gas firms have meanwhile pledged to slash methane emissions by 2050.

“But these commitments were not backed up by detailed plans,” the IEA said, calling for concrete policies to turn the pledges into reality.

It said countries and companies have the power to slash methane emissions from fossil fuels in half by 2030, if they deliver on their promises.