New Delhi:

With demand for electricity in India expected to surge by a massive eight per cent this year, the world’s demand is rising at its fastest rate in years, driven by robust economic growth, intense heat waves and increasing uptake of technologies that run on electricity such as EVs and heat pumps, a new report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Friday.

At the same time, renewables continue their rapid ascent, with solar PV on course to set new records.

Global electricity demand is forecast to grow by around four per cent in 2024, up from 2.5 per cent in 2023, the IEA’s Electricity Mid-Year Update finds.

This would represent the highest annual growth rate since 2007, excluding the exceptional rebounds seen in the wake of the global financial crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic.

The strong increase in global electricity consumption is set to continue into 2025, with growth around four per cent again, according to the report. Renewable sources of electricity are also set to expand rapidly this year and next, with their share of global electricity supply forecast to rise from 30 per cent in 2023 to 35 per cent in 2025.

The amount of electricity generated by renewables worldwide in 2025 is forecast to eclipse the amount generated by coal for the first time. Solar PV alone is expected to meet roughly half of the growth in global electricity demand over 2024 and 2025 — with solar and wind combined meeting as much as three-quarters of the growth.

Despite the sharp increases in renewables, global power generation from coal is unlikely to decline this year due to the strong growth in demand, especially in China and India, according to the report.

As a result, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the global power sector are plateauing, with a slight increase in 2024 followed by a decline in 2025.

However, considerable uncertainties remain: Chinese hydropower production recovered strongly in the first half of 2024 from its 2023 low. If this upward trend continues in the second half of the year, it could curb coal-fired power generation and result in a slight decline in global power sector emissions in 2024.

Some of the world’s major economies are registering particularly strong increases in electricity consumption. Demand in India is expected to surge by a massive eight per cent this year, driven by strong economic activity and powerful heat waves.

China is also set to see significant demand growth of more than six per cent, as a result of robust activity in the services industries and various industrial sectors, including the manufacturing of clean energy technologies.

After declining in 2023 amid mild weather, electricity demand in the US is forecast to rebound this year by three per cent amid steady economic growth, rising demand for cooling and an expanding data centre sector.

By contrast, the European Union will see a more modest recovery in electricity demand, with growth forecast at 1.7 per cent, following two consecutive years of contraction amid the impacts of the energy crisis.

In many parts of the world, increasing use of air-conditioning will remain a significant driver of electricity demand. Multiple regions faced intense heat waves in the first half of 2024, which elevated demand and put electricity systems under strain, the report finds.

“Growth in global electricity demand this year and next is set to be among the fastest in the past two decades, highlighting the growing role of electricity in our economies as well as the impacts of severe heat waves,” said Keisuke Sadamori, IEA Director of Energy Markets and Security.

“It’s encouraging to see clean energy’s share of the electricity mix continuing to rise, but this needs to happen at a much faster rate to meet international energy and climate goals. At the same time, it’s crucial to expand and reinforce grids to provide citizens with secure and reliable electricity supply — and to implement higher energy efficiency standards to reduce the impacts of increased cooling demand on power systems.”

With the rise of Artificial Intelligence (AI), the electricity demand of data centres is drawing increased attention, underscoring the need for more reliable data and better stocktaking measures. The report highlights the wide range of uncertainties concerning the electricity demand of data centres, including the pace of deployment, the diverse and expanding uses of AI, and the potential for energy efficiency improvements. Better collection of electricity consumption data of the data centre sector will be essential to identify past developments correctly and to better understand future trends.
 

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

New Delhi:

India’s demand for electricity for running household air conditioners is estimated to expand nine-fold by 2050 and will exceed total power consumption in the whole of Africa today, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said today.

In its latest World Energy Outlook, IEA said India will see the largest energy demand growth of any country or region in the world over the next three decades.

It projected India’s energy supply to rise from 42 exajoules (EJ) in 2022 to 53.7 EJ in 2030 and 73 EJ in 2050 under stated policies scenarios and 47.6 EJ by 2030 and 60.3 EJ by 2050 as per announced pledges.

Oil demand is seen rising from 5.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2022 to 6.8 million bpd in 2030 and 7.8 million bpd in 2050 under stated policies scenario. Under announced pledges, this demand is seeking 6.2 million bpd in 2030 and 4.7 million bpd in 2050.

IEA said over the past five decades, India witnessed over 700 heatwave events, which have claimed over 17,000 lives. Fuelled by its geographic and meteorological conditions, air conditioner ownership in India has been steadily rising with growing incomes, tripling since 2010 to reach 24 units per 100 households.

“The impact of cooling needs on electricity consumption is already clear,” the Paris-based agency said.

“Electricity demand is sensitive to temperatures, and in India’s case there is a sharp increase in demand as temperatures cross the 25-degree Celsius threshold..

Electricity consumption due to space cooling increased 21 per cent between 2019 and 2022, and today nearly 10 per cent of electricity demand comes from space cooling requirements.

“Household air conditioner ownership is estimated to expand ninefold by 2050 across the IEA scenarios, outpacing the growth in ownership of every other major household appliance including televisions, refrigerators and washing machines,” it said.

“Residential electricity demand from cooling increases ninefold in the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) by 2050..

IEA said by 2050, “India’s total electricity demand from residential air conditioners in the STEPS exceeds total electricity consumption in the whole of Africa today..

In the Announced Pledges Scenario (APS), however, electricity demand for air conditioners is nearly 15 per cent lower in 2050 as it is in the STEPS as a result of increased use of energy-efficient air conditioners and thermal insulation in buildings. “This reduction itself is larger than the total electricity generation by several countries today, such as that of the Netherlands”.

The growth in ownership and use of air conditioners and other cooling equipment is one of the key drivers of the increase in peak electricity demand in India.

In the STEPS, peak electricity demand rise around 60 per cent from the 2022 level by 2030 and cooling accounts for nearly half of this increase.

In the APS, however, the implementation of building codes, the use of more efficient appliances and the adoption of demand response measures enable the same cooling needs to be met with less energy. This reduces peak electricity demand growth by nearly one-quarter compared to the STEPS. Given that the electricity system is sized to meet peak demand, lower peak demand helps to lower electricity investment needs and system costs.

Although solar PV matches well with daytime cooling needs, cooling demand is also significant in India during the late evening and at night.

“Lowering cooling demand through energy efficiency policies therefore reduces the need for investment in batteries or expensive standby generation capacity, and thus helps to integrate renewables more cost effectively,” IEA said.

IEA said India is moving into a dynamic new phase in its energy development marked by a long-term net zero emissions ambition, increased regulatory sophistication, a focus on clean energy deployment, and the creation of domestic clean energy technology supply chains.

Recognising the potential to transform its energy sector and reduce the import burden of fossil fuels while reducing CO2 emissions, India has announced a net zero emissions target by 2070, and has put in place policies to scale up clean energy supply and clean technology manufacturing.

“While clean energy investment in India more than doubles in the STEPS by 2030 from around USD 60 billion in 2022, investment needs to nearly triple by the end of this decade to be on a trajectory to meet its net zero emissions target, which is reflected in the APS,” it said.

Although India’s population growth has slowed to reach replacement levels, its urban population increases by 74 per cent and per capita income triples by 2050. Industrial output expands rapidly, for example through a tripling of output of iron and steel, and doubling of cement, plus there is a ninefold increase in residential air conditioner ownership by 2050.

“As a result, demand for oil and natural gas increases in the STEPS by nearly 70 per cent between 2022 and 2050, while coal demand increases by 10 per cent, even as solar PV makes inroads into electricity generation. As a result, India’s annual CO2 emissions still rise nearly 30 per cent by 2050, which is one of the largest increases in the world,” the outlook said.

In the APS, the increase in clean energy investment changes the outlook. In the STEPS, solar provides nearly 45 per cent of total generated power by 2050; in the APS, it crosses 50 per cent. In both the STEPS and APS, India achieves its target of 50 per cent non-fossil power generation capacity by 2030.

Clean energy investment in the APS over and above those in the STEPS also drives faster growth in electromobility, low-emissions hydrogen, grid expansions and other clean energy infrastructure.

“As a result, India’s annual CO2 emissions fall sharply in the APS by over 40 per cent from current levels by 2050, even though its GDP quadruples over this period,” it added.
 

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)