The Indian rupee crashed below the 96/USD mark on Friday (May 15, 2026) before closing at an all-time low of 95.86 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar as elevated crude oil prices and inflation concerns added to the downside pressure on the rupee.

Rupee has registered over 6% losses so far this year, and in the past six trading sessions, it has depreciated nearly 2% as Iran war risk escalation pushed crude oil prices higher. The dollar index moved northwards after strong U.S. retail sales and stable labour market data reduced expectations of aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Forex traders said global uncertainties, relatively high valuations, and the lack of AI-led investment opportunities have weighed on capital flows.

Moreover, weak net FDI inflows are likely to exert pressure on the balance of payments, while rising crude oil prices stoke inflation worries.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 95.86, then slumped to a record low of 96.14 in intraday trade, registering a fall of 50 paise from its previous close.

The USD/INR pair finally settled at 95.86 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar, registering a fall of 22 paise from its previous close, helped by likely RBI intervention.

On Thursday (May 14, 2026), the rupee weakened to a fresh record low of 95.96 before closing with a marginal gain of 2 paise at 95.64 against the U.S. dollar.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading at 99.15, higher by 0.34%.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was trading up 3.14% at $109.04 per barrel in futures trade.

On the domestic equity market front, Sensex fell 160.73 points to settle at 75,237.99, while Nifty declined 46.10 points to 23,643.50.

Foreign Institutional Investors turned net buyers, purchasing equities worth ₹187.46 crore on Thursday, according to exchange data.

Meanwhile, the country’s exports in April rose by 13.78% to $43.56 billion despite global challenges, Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal said on Friday.

Imports grew 10 per cent year-on-year to $71.94 billion in April. The trade deficit during the month stood at $28.38 billion.

“We expect the rupee to trade with a negative bias on elevated crude oil prices and inflation concerns. Strong dollar and FII outflows may also weigh on the rupee. However, any intervention by the RBI and hiking of import duty on gold and silver may support the rupee at lower levels. USD-INR spot price is expected to trade in a range of 95.60 to 96.20,” said Anuj Choudhary, Research analyst at Mirae Asset ShareKhan.

Chinese President Xi Jinping and his U.S. counterpart Donald Trump on Friday (May 15, 2026) hailed their talks as “historic” and “landmark”, as the American leader wrapped up his three-day visit on a high note, but no deals on any contentious issues were announced.

Both Presidents, who held several rounds of talks covering a range of global issues, including the Iran war and bilateral trade frictions, concluded their discussions with a private meeting at Zhongnanhai, the well-guarded compound in Beijing where top leaders reside.

The rupee touched its lowest-ever intraday level of 95.80 against the U.S. dollar, weakening for the fourth consecutive session on Wednesday (May 13, 2026) due to elevated crude oil prices and fear of a prolonged global trade disruption amid the West Asia crisis.

According to forex analysts, in the backdrop of surging crude oil prices, the government’s move to raise import duties on gold and silver may not be enough to ease the overall demand for the safe-haven greenback.

Effective May 13, the government raised import tariffs on gold and silver to 15% from 6% to curb overseas purchases of the metals and ease pressure on the country’s forex reserves.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee logged a fall of 21 paise during the session, and it hit the day’s high of 95.51 against the greenback, even though it opened the session at 95.52, 16 paise higher than its previous day’s closing level.

In the past three sessions, the Indian currency has lost 96 paise since May 7, when it ended at 94.22 against the U.S. dollar.

Anuj Choudhary, Research analyst at Mirae Asset ShareKhan, said the rupee hit a fresh record low on rising crude oil prices and a surge in inflation.

“Stalemate between the U.S. and Iran on peace talks has led to risk aversion in global markets. A strong dollar and FII outflows too pressurised the rupee,” he said and projected the USD-INR spot price to trade “in a range of ₹95.45 to ₹96.15”.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading at 98.46, up 0.29%.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was trading lower by 0.22% at $107.73 per barrel in futures trade.

On the domestic equity market front, the 30-share Sensex was trading 79.50 points higher at 74,638.74, while the Nifty was up 39.50 points to 23,419.05.

Foreign Institutional Investors offloaded equities worth ₹1,959.39 crore on Tuesday (May 12, 2026), according to exchange data.

On the domestic macroeconomic front, retail inflation inched up to 3.48% in April mainly due to higher prices of gold and silver jewellery as well as some kitchen items, according to government data released on Tuesday (May 12, 2026).

The Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation, with base year 2024, was 3.40% in March, 3.21% in February, and 2.74% in January.

The rupee tanked 82 paise to settle at its record low of 95.31 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar on Monday (May 11, 2026) after U.S. President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s response to the West Asia peace proposal, following which crude oil prices surged rapidly.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi urging citizens to avoid buying gold and embrace austerity measures further dented market sentiments.

A strengthening U.S. dollar and steep foreign capital outflows further pressured the local unit, according to forex traders.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 94.97 and traded in the range of 94.87-95.34. It eventually settled at its record low of 95.31 (provisional), down 82 paise from its previous close.

On Friday (May 9, 2026), the rupee had closed at 94.49 against the U.S. dollar.

Iran, meanwhile, has sent its response to the latest U.S. ceasefire proposal via Pakistani mediators and wants negotiations to focus on permanently ending the war, Iran’s state-run media said on Sunday (May 10, 2026).

Mr. Trump rejected Iran’s proposal to end the months-long war as “totally unacceptable” without sharing details even as a key Republican leader urged him to consider the “military option”.

PM Modi on Sunday (May 10, 2026) appealed to people of the country for judicious use of fuel, postponement of gold purchases and foreign travel, among other measures, amid the ongoing conflict in West Asia.

“PM Modi asked for a slowdown on buying petrol, gold, foreign trips, etc., to save foreign exchange to keep fiscal deficit lower. The implication of these steps in the short term would be a slowdown in growth,” Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury and Executive Director, Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP, said.

“While Trump did not agree to Iran’s reply on his peace proposals, it took oil to USD 105 levels and dollar index to above 98 levels keeping them well bid… The rupee is expected to remain between 94.75 and 95.50 on Tuesday,” he said.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading at 98.02, up 0.13%.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, rose 2.52% to $103.8 per barrel in futures trade.

On the domestic equity market front, the Sensex crashed 1,312.91 points, or 1.70%, to 76,015.28, while the Nifty plummeted 360.30 points, or 1.49%, to 23,815.85.

Foreign Institutional Investors offloaded equities worth ₹4,110.60 crore on Friday (May 8, 2026), according to exchange data.

India’s forex reserves dropped by $7.794 billion to $690.693 billion during the week ended May 1, the RBI said on Friday (May 8, 2026). In the previous reporting week ended April 24, the overall reserves declined by $4.82 billion to $698.487 billion.

The rupee appreciated by 23 paise to 94.95 against the U.S. dollar in early trade on Wednesday (May 6, 2026) as Brent crude prices retreated from their elevated level after U.S. President Donald Trump hinted at a possible deal with Iran.

Forex traders said oil prices fell to $108 per barrel, as signs of easing geopolitical tensions in West Asia offset the lingering supply concerns.

The rupee depreciated 14 paise to close near its all-time low at 94.82 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday (April 29, 2026), pressured by rising Brent crude oil prices, hovering around $115 per barrel, and continued foreign capital outflows.

Forex traders said the elevated crude oil price is likely to sharply impact India’s import costs, while the ongoing West Asia crisis and concerns over potential wider conflict are fuelling investor anxiety.

Also, analysts said that investors were awaiting cues from the upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve policy decision.

Moreover, heavy foreign institutional investor (FII) selling so far this year further dented investor sentiment.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 94.79 against the U.S. dollar, then lost ground and touched an intraday low of 94.86 against the U.S. dollar, and finally settled for the day at 94.82 (provisional), registering a fall of 14 paise over its previous close.

On Tuesday (April 28, 2026), the rupee depreciated by 53 paise to close at 94.68 against the U.S. dollar.

The rupee’s all-time low closing level of 94.85 versus the U.S. dollar was recorded on March 27 this year.

The rupee continued to trade weakly, as sustained FII outflows and elevated crude prices near $114 (Brent) kept pressure on the currency. Higher oil prices are significantly increasing India’s import bill and inflation risks, limiting any meaningful recovery in the rupee.

“The trend remains weak, with the currency consistently facing selling pressure on rebounds, indicating a lack of strong support at higher levels. In the near term, 94.40 is likely to act as resistance, while 95.25 remains the next key support, with the rupee expected to stay volatile and driven by crude and capital flows,” said Jateen Trivedi, VP research analyst – Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was up 0.08% at 98.72.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was trading higher by 3.13% at $114.74 per barrel in futures trade.

Meanwhile, the United Arab Emirates said on Tuesday (April 28, 2026) it will leave OPEC effective May 1, in a major blow to the global oil cartel.

On the domestic equity market front, Sensex jumped 609.45 points to settle at 77,496.36, while the Nifty climbed 181.95 points to 24,177.65.

Foreign Institutional Investors offloaded equities worth ₹2,103.74 crore on Tuesday (April 28, 2026), according to exchange data.

Meanwhile, India’s industrial production growth decelerated to a five-month low of 4.1% in March on account of subdued manufacturing growth and almost flat expansion in the power sector amid the West Asia crisis, according to official data released on Tuesday (April 28, 2026).

The factory output, measured in terms of the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), expanded by 3.9% in March 2025, an official statement said.

The rupee depreciated 41 paise to close at 94.56 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday (April 28, 2026), as elevated crude oil prices and unabated foreign capital outflows amid rising geopolitical uncertainties dented investor sentiments.

Forex traders said the rupee has already weakened quite sharply, factoring in the likely widening of the Current Account Deficit (CAD) and volatile capital flows. Moreover, persistent foreign fund outflows weighed on the rupee, as so far this year, FIIs have pulled out over $19 billion from Indian equities.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 94.35 against the U.S. dollar, then lost ground and touched an intraday low of 94.58 against the U.S. dollar, and finally settled for the day at 94.56 (provisional), registering a fall of 41 paise over its previous close.

On Monday (April 27, 2026), the rupee settled with a gain of just one paisa, closing at 94.15 against the U.S. dollar. “The primary pressure on the rupee stems from weak capital inflows. Net FDI inflows have been subdued, while FPI flows have been affected by elevated global uncertainty, relatively high equity valuations, and the absence of a strong AI investment narrative in India,” said Rajani Sinha, Chief Economist, CareEdge Ratings.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was up 0.245 at 98.73. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was trading higher by 2.62% at $111.07 per barrel in futures trade.

“There is a lot of uncertainty around the West Asia conflict. Even if the conflict eases in the near term, we expect crude oil prices to average around $85–90 per barrel in FY27. Under this baseline, the rupee is likely to remain in the 92–93 range on average in FY27,” Ms. Sinha added.

On the domestic equity market front, Sensex dropped 416.72 points to settle at 76,886.91, while the Nifty declined 97 points to 23,995.70. Foreign Institutional Investors offloaded equities worth ₹1,151.48 crore on Monday (April 27), according to exchange data.

“The rupee appears somewhat undervalued based on interest rate differentials and REER indicators. However, in a downside scenario where the conflict escalates and crude oil prices rise further, there would be further weakening pressure on the rupee,” Ms. Sinha said.

The rupee extended its losing streak for the fifth day in a row, depreciating 22 paise to close at 94.23 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar on Friday (April 24, 2026) due to higher crude oil prices and strengthening American currency, with prospects of West Asia peace talks hanging in the balance.

Despite a ceasefire being in place between the United States and Iran, ship movement through the Strait of Hormuz remained uncertain, unsettling the global fuel prices, while the upheaval triggered a massive selling in domestic equity markets and outflow of foreign funds, forex analysts said.

President Donald Trump has also ordered the U.S military to “shoot and kill” small Iranian boats that deploy mines to choke traffic through the Strait of Hormuz..

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 94.25 and stayed range-bound throughout the session, hitting the day’s high of 94.18 and the low of 94.31 against the greenback.

The currency settled for the day at 94.23 (provisional), registering a loss of 22 paise from the previous closing level.

The rupee settled 23 paise lower at 94.01 against the U.S. dollar on Thursday (April 23, 2026), the fourth consecutive day of decline.

In the past five sessions, the domestic unit has lost over 1%, since the closing level of 92.91 recorded on April 17.

Anuj Choudhary, Research Analyst at Mirae Asset ShareKhan, said the rupee fell on risk aversion in global markets as the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continued to keep the tensions high.

“A strong dollar and surge in crude oil prices weighed on the rupee,” he said, adding,” USD-INR spot price is expected to trade in a range of ₹94 to ₹94.62.”

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was 0.02% higher at 98.62.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, surged 2.21% to $107.39 per barrel in futures trade.

In the domestic equity markets, the 30-share Sensex sank 982.71 points or 1.27% to settle at 76,681.29, while the Nifty crashed 275.10 points or 1.14% to 23,897.95.

Foreign Institutional Investors offloaded equities worth about ₹3,254.71 crore on Thursday (April 23, 2026), according to the exchange data.

Driven by high hedging dollar demand and a broader shift toward safe-haven assets, the Indian rupee on Thursday (April 23, 2026) weakened past the 94 level against the U.S. dollar.

As crude oil prices rose over $100 a barrel owing to uncertainties around the West Asia conflict, the rupee came under pressure and fell 23 paise to 94.01 against the dollar from its previous close of 93.78 in the spot market as reflected in the Clearing Corporation of India platform.

This is the rupee’s fall for the fourth consecutive session, its longest losing streak, analysts said.

Dilip Parmar, Senior Research Analyst, HDFC Securities, said, “Central bank interventions failed to arrest the slide as a simultaneous rally in crude oil and the U.S. dollar exerted additional downward pressure.”

“With excessive speculation in the currency markets curbed by the RBI’s actions, the rupee is likely to move in tandem with fundamentals. The fundamental factor behind rupee’s weakness is the rising current account deficit caused by high crude prices and the sustained FPI outflows from India,” said V.K. Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Ltd.

“So long as these factors remain the same, the rupee will remain weak and if the crude price rises again due to escalation of the conflict, the rupee will depreciate further,” he added.

“The low of ₹93.50 to the dollar reached on March 30 is unlikely to be reached in the near-term since currency speculation is under check. Rupee will move inversely in tune with crude prices. Currently depreciation stands the risk of getting aggravated if FPIs turn into big sellers,” he further said.

Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst — Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities, said, “Uncertainty around U.S.–Iran talks and tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are further supporting crude, adding to inflation concerns and limiting rupee recovery. The dollar remains steady, which is also capping any upside in the rupee.”

The equity benchmark indices on Thursday fell about 1% owing to war-related worries.

The BSE Sensex fell 852 points, or 1.09%, to 77,664.

The NSE Nifty-50 index, too, fell 205 points or 0.84% to 24,173 points.

The rupee declined 32 paise to close at 93.48 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday (April 21, 2026), weighed down by a steady American currency and volatile crude oil prices amid uncertainties over the progress of West Asia peace negotiations.

Positive domestic equity markets failed to boost local currency, which also had some impact of the Reserve Bank’s latest move to ease curbs on speculative bets in non-deliverable forward markets, forex analysts said.