The rupee depreciated 25 paise to 95.33 against the U.S. dollar in early trade on Thursday (September 11, 2026) as Brent crude price crossed the $100 mark sharply increasing concerns over India’s import bill.

Forex traders said elevated crude oil prices and persistent dollar demand also weighed on investor sentiments.

In the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 95.15 against the U.S. dollar, then fell to 95.33, down 25 paise from its previous close.

On Wednesday (September 9, 2026), the rupee slumped 34 paise to close at 95.08 against the American currency.

“Rupee’s move beyond the psychologically important 95 level also triggered some additional dollar demand and stop-loss activity. However, the decline was contained by RBI intervention,” said Anil Kumar Bhansali, head of treasury and executive director Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading at 98.72, lower by 0.09%.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was trading marginally lower by 0.23% at $ 100.98 per barrel in futures trade, amid escalating U.S.-Iran tensions and fears of disruption to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

“For an economy that imports nearly 90% of its crude, every $10 rise in oil can add roughly $12–15 billion to the annual import bill, putting further pressure on the current account and the rupee. With FCNR-related dollar inflows no longer available to offset this pressure, sustained high oil prices could weigh more heavily on the currency,” CR Forex Advisors MD Amit Pabari said.

The rupee is entering a phase where the temporary support from FCNR-related flows has largely faded, while global headwinds are becoming stronger.

“The break above 95.00 is technically significant. The expectation is that if USD/INR sustains above 95, the probability of a move towards 95.50 has increased, followed by 96.00 if the momentum continues,” Pabari added.

On the domestic equities market front, Sensex was trading marginally up by 38.07 points to 74,809.95 in early trade, while the Nifty was higher by 9.85 points to 23,439.20.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) offloaded equities worth ₹582 crore on a net basis on Wednesday (September 9, 2026), according to exchange data.

The rupee depreciated 16 paise to close at 95.24 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar on Thursday (August 6, 2026), on slight gains in the U.S. Dollar Index and a modest increase in U.S. treasury yields.

Forex traders said the rupee was pressured by a slight recovery in the U.S. dollar index and foreign fund outflows, even as lower crude oil prices provided some underlying support.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 95.13 against the greenback and traded in a range of 95.12-95.24 during the session. It eventually settled at 95.24 (provisional), lower by 16 paise from its previous close.

On Wednesday (August 5, 2026), the rupee gained 20 paise to settle at 95.08 against the U.S. dollar. “Indian rupee declined today on a slight bounce in the U.S. dollar index and modest gains in the U.S. treasury yields.

“However, weak crude oil prices and hopes of a deal between the U.S. and Iran prevented a sharp fall,” said Anuj Choudhary, research analyst, Mirae Asset ShareKhan.

Mr. Choudhary further said that the rupee is likely to trade with a slight positive bias on a rise in risk appetite in global markets amid hopes of a deal between the U.S. and Iran.

“However, any bounce back in the dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields may cap sharp gains. Traders may take cues from weekly U.S. unemployment claims data. USD-INR spot price is expected to trade in a range of 94.80 to 95.50,” Mr. Choudhary said.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading at 99.78, down 0.11%.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was trading higher by 0.09% at $79.52 per barrel in futures trade.

For India, Brent near $80 per barrel substantially reduces pressure on the import bill, inflation, and the current account compared with the $100+ levels seen in July, said Anil Kumar Bhansali, head of treasury and executive director, Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP.

On the domestic equity market front, Sensex climbed 373.76 points to settle at 78,954.76, while the Nifty closed marginally up by 11.35 points to 24,636.

Foreign Institutional Investors turned to selling and offloaded equities worth ₹943.42 crore on a net basis on Wednesday (August 5, 2026), according to exchange data.

The rupee fell 6 paise to 94.69 against the U.S. dollar in early trade on Tuesday (June 23, 2026) as the greenback strengthened further to hover around its 13-month high.

FII outflows and a weaker start to the morning trade at the domestic equity markets put further pressure on the rupee, while a decline in crude oil prices cushioned against a steeper decline, forex traders said.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 94.73 against the U.S. dollar before rising to 94.69, down 6 paise from its previous close.

The rupee depreciated 30 paise to close at 94.63 against the U.S. dollar on Monday (June 22, 2026).

“The rupee opened weaker against the U.S. dollar, as mounting expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike and broad-based dollar strength weighed on Asian currencies. The greenback hovered near a 13-month high, supported by optimism surrounding U.S.-Iran peace negotiations and weakness in major currencies, particularly the British pound and Japanese yen,” Pinky Yadav, Commodity Fundamental Analyst at Choice Broking, said.

“While easing crude oil prices amid progress in U.S.-Iran talks may offer some support to the rupee, the Fed’s hawkish stance and higher inflation outlook are likely to keep gains limited. Meanwhile, India’s infrastructure output growth slowed to 0.5% in May, signaling a moderation in economic activity,” Mr. Yadav said.

“The rupee will remain in a range of 94.20 to 94.90 for the day with upticks to the dollar to be sold off,” Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury and Executive Director, Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP, said.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading at 101.04, up 0.02%, amid hawkish Fed and the fragile U.S.-Iran trade deal.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was trading lower by 0.46% at $77.54 per barrel in futures trade.

On the domestic equity market front, Sensex declined 57.43 points to 77,061.94 in early trade while the Nifty was down 31.6 points to 24,071.30.

Foreign institutional investors turned net sellers, offloading equities worth ₹635.91 crore on a net basis on Monday (June 22, 2026), according to exchange data.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) net purchased $7.409 billion from the spot currency market in February, according to the central bank’s monthly bulletin released on Thursday (April 23, 2026).

On a gross basis, the central bank purchased $21.403 billion in February and sold $13.994 billion, as per the bulletin.

This is the second consecutive month of net purchase of foreign currency by the central bank after registering net sales for seven consecutive months before that. In January, the central bank bought $2.526 billion, according to the RBI’s monthly bulletin data.

The rupee gained 17 paise to trade at 91.41 against the U.S. dollar in early deals on Friday (January 23, 2026), as investor sentiments improved after U.S. President Donald Trump stepped back from tariff threats against Europe linked to Greenland, easing immediate trade-war fears.

Forex traders said Mr. Trump’s softer rhetoric reduced near-term geopolitical anxiety. Moreover, as investors’ risk appetite improved, the dollar corrected, allowing emerging market currencies — including the rupee — to recover slightly, they said.

Read | Is the falling rupee a cause for alarm? 

At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 91.45 then gained ground to trade at 91.41 against the dollar, up 17 paise from its previous close.

On Thursday (January 22, 2026), the rupee rebounded from its all-time low levels and ended with a gain of 7 paise at 91.58 against the U.S. dollar.

Forex traders, however, said the currency remains under severe pressure from persistent foreign fund outflows amid heightened global geopolitical uncertainties.

Read | With sharp fall, Rupee is Asia’s worst performing currency, may slide to 90, say analysts 

The pending trade agreement with the U.S. remains a key stabilising factor. Until the geopolitical risk eases and the trade deal materialises, the rupee is likely to remain vulnerable to external shocks, they said.

“At current levels, a large portion of global risk appears to be priced into the rupee. This opens the door for a phase of consolidation and a possible partial recovery if risk sentiment stabilises.

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“The 92.00 level remains a strong resistance, while sustained RBI support could guide USD/INR back toward the 90.50–90.70 zone in the near term,” CR Forex Advisors MD Amit Pabari said in a research note.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.01% higher at 98.36.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was trading 0.87% higher at $64.62 per barrel in futures trade.

On the domestic equity market front, Sensex fell 25.99 points to 82,281.38 in initial trade, while the Nifty rose 10.55 points to 25,300.45.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) offloaded equities worth ₹2,549.80 crore on Thursday (January 22, 2026), according to exchange data.

The rupee pared initial gains and settled for the day 6 paise lower at 90.29 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday (January 14, 2026), as the likely central bank intervention was negated by a strong dollar, foreign outflows from capital markets and elevated crude oil prices.

Forex traders said the rupee is likely to trade with a negative bias on risk aversion in global markets and geopolitical tensions, however, rising odds of a rate cut amid softening inflation and any intervention by the central bank may support the rupee at lower levels.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 90.26 and touched the intra-day low of 90.30 and a high of 89.94 against the dollar. The currency finally ended the session at 90.29 (provisional) against the dollar, down 6 paise from its previous close.

On Tuesday (January 13, 2026), the rupee declined 6 paise to close at 90.23 against the U.S. dollar.

“Indian rupee gained in early trade on likely central bank intervention. However, a strong dollar, FII outflows and a late fall in the domestic markets capped sharp gains,” said Anuj Choudhary, Research Analyst, Mirae Asset ShareKhan.

Mr. Choudhary further added that “we expect the rupee to trade with negative bias on risk aversion in global markets and geopolitical tensions”.

Traders now focus on the U.S. Supreme Court ruling later in the day on the legality of the Liberation Day tariffs. USD/INR spot price is expected to trade in a range of 89.95 to 90.50, he said.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which measures the dollar’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.02% lower at 99.11.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was trading 1.04% lower at $64.81 per barrel in futures trade.

On the domestic equity market front, the Sensex dropped 244.98 points to settle at 83,382.71, while the Nifty declined 66.70 points to 25,665.60.

Foreign institutional investors offloaded equities worth ₹1,499.81 crore on Tuesday (January 13, 2026), according to exchange data.

The rupee fell 7 paise to settle at 89.94 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar on Thursday (January 8, 2026) weighed down by a host of factors, including higher crude oil prices, foreign fund outflows and a stronger U.S. dollar.

The apprehension of any further tariffs by the U.S. and weak sentiments at the domestic equity markets further pressured the local unit, forex traders said.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 89.96 and traded in the range of 89.73 to 90.13. It eventually settled at 89.94 (provisional), down 7 paise from its previous close.

“India faces big trouble on its exports if the U.S. increases tariffs by even 10 bps [basis points], as sentimentally it changes from ‘the deal in pipeline’ to ‘back to square one’. RBI shorts in the markets will keep the dollar buying sentiment,” Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury and Executive Director, Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP, said.

The rupee is expected in the range of 89.80 to 90.30 on Friday (January 9), he said.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.02% higher at 98.70.

Read | Is India’s 8.2% growth rate sustainable?

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was trading 0.85% higher at $60.47 per barrel in futures trade.

On the domestic equity market front, the 30-share benchmark index Sensex tanked 780.18 points to settle at 84,180.9, while the Nifty fell 263.90 points to 25,876.85.

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) offloaded equities worth ₹1,527.71 crore on Wednesday (January 7), according to exchange data.

The government, in its latest estimate on Wednesday (January 7), projected the country’s GDP to grow by 7.4% in the current fiscal year, maintaining its status as the world’s fastest-growing major economy despite punitive U.S. tariffs and geopolitical tensions.

The First Advance Estimates released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation put GDP growth in 2025-26 at better than 7.3%, forecast by the RBI and the government’s initial projection of 6.3-6.8%.

The rupee witnessed high volatility in early trade on Wednesday (December 17, 2025), as support from easing crude oil prices was offset by uncertainty over the India-U.S. trade deal and persistent foreign fund outflows.

Forex traders said the key driver of rupee weakness in December was continued Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPI) selling across both equity and debt markets, with foreign investors repeatedly selling several billion dollars worth of Indian assets on a daily basis in the last few months, the selling intensifying in the last two months.

However, with Brent crude oil prices hovering near recent multi-year lows of $59 per barrel, the local unit was supported at lower levels.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 91.05 against the U.S. dollar, down 12 paise from its previous close.

The domestic unit, however, witnessed a sharp recovery and appreciated 97 paise to touch an early high of 89.96 against the American currency and was trading at 90.18 against the U.S. dollar at 9:46 a.m.

On Tuesday (December 16), the rupee tanked below 91 per dollar, hitting a low of 91.14. It finally settled at 90.93 against the American currency.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.17% higher at 98.31.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was trading at $59.54 per barrel in futures trade, as record non-OPEC (non-Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) supply, weak China data and optimism over a Ukraine ceasefire were the main reasons for the current fall, traders said.

Meanwhile, Minister of State for Finance Pankaj Chaudhary on Tuesday (December 16) informed the Parliament that, “During the current financial year, the depreciation of the INR has been influenced by the increase in trade deficit and likely prospects arising from the ongoing developments in India’s trade agreement with the U.S., amid relatively weak support from the capital account”.

“The depreciation of currency is likely to enhance export competitiveness, which in turn impacts the economy positively. On the other hand, depreciation may raise the prices of imported goods. However, the overall impact of exchange rate depreciation on domestic prices depends on the extent of the pass-through of international commodity prices to the domestic market,” he said.

On the domestic equity market front, the 30-share benchmark index Sensex was trading 146.09 points higher at 84,825.95, while the Nifty was up 62.05 points at 25,922.15.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) sold equities worth ₹2,381.92 crore on Tuesday (December 16), according to exchange data.

According to Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury and Executive Director, Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP, the rupee may see a slow and steady move towards 92 in the coming days, with no signs of any trade deal happening between India and the U.S., which has also been a cause for the equities to fall.

The Rupee recovered from all-time lows and settled for the day higher by seven paise at 88.28 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar on Friday (September 12, 2025), on weakness in the U.S. dollar index and positive domestic markets.

Forex traders said the domestic unit traded in a tight range and hovered around its all-time low level as tariff-led pressure on India’s exports and sustained foreign fund outflows dented investors sentiments.

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At the interbank foreign exchange, the domestic unit opened at 88.39 and fell to an intraday low of 88.42 against the U.S. dollar during the session. The domestic unit settled for the day at 88.28 (provisional), recovering seven paise over its previous close.

On Thursday (September 11, 2025), the Rupee slumped 24 paise and closed for the day at an all-time low of 88.35 against the U.S. dollar. It had also touched the lowest-ever intraday level of 88.49 against the greenback.

“We expect the Rupee to trade with a slight positive bias on overall weakness in the U.S. dollar and rise in risk appetite in global markets on rising odds of a rate cut by Fed in its upcoming FOMC meeting next week,” said Anuj Choudhary, Research Analyst, Currency and commodities, Mirae Asset ShareKhan.

“Markets now expect a 75 bps rate cut in 2025. However, FII outflows and uncertainty over trade tariff issues between India and the U.S. may cap sharp upside,” Mr. Choudhary said, adding that traders may take cues from University of Michigan consumer sentiment data from the U.S. “The USD-INR spot price is expected to trade in a range of 88 to 88.50,” he said.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, rose 0.22% to 97.74. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was trading 0.65% higher at $66.80 per barrel in futures trade.

On the domestic equity market front, Sensex jumped 355.97 points to settle at 81,904.70, while the Nifty climbed 108.50 points to 25,114. Foreign Institutional Investors offloaded equities worth ₹3,472.37 crore on Thursday (September 11, 2025), according to exchange data.

Meanwhile, Commerce and Industry Minister Piysuh Goyal on Thursday (September 11, 2025) said that negotiations between India and the U.S. on the proposed trade agreement, which began in March, are progressing in a positive atmosphere and both the countries are satisfied with the progress.

These remarks follow the announcement by U.S. President Donald Trump that there will be “no difficulty” for the two countries to come to a successful conclusion in trade talks and he looks forward to speaking with his “very good friend” Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the coming weeks.