At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened on a negative note and touched an early low of 87.15 against the American currency on July 30, 025, registering a fall of 24 paise over its previous close. File
| Photo Credit: REUTERS

 At the interbank foreign exchange, the Indian currency opened weak at 86.46 and touched the intra-day peak of 86.34 against the greenback on July 23, 2025.
| Photo Credit: REUTERS

At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 86.88 and gained further ground to trade at 86.79 against the greenback during early deals on February 20, 2025.
| Photo Credit: PTI

The rupee appreciated 19 paise to 86.79 against the US dollar in early trade on Thursday (February 20, 2025), as the American currency and crude oil prices retreated from their elevated levels.

Forex traders said there is a negative bias for the USD/INR pair amid a muted trend in domestic equities and the unabated foreign fund outflow is weighing on investor sentiments.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 86.88 and gained further ground to trade at 86.79 against the greenback during early deals, up 19 paise from its previous close.

On Tuesday, the rupee depreciated 10 paise to close at 86.98 against US dollar.

The forex market was closed on Wednesday on account of ‘Chatrapati Shivaji Maharaj Jayanti’ Meanwhile, the US dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.16 per cent lower at 107.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, fell 0.34 per cent to USD 75.78 per barrel in futures trade.

Forex traders said on the domestic front, India’s economy is expected to demonstrate a strong momentum in the second half of the year but the rupee is battling global headwinds.

According to an article on ‘State of the Economy’ published in RBI’s February bulletin, high frequency indicators, like vehicles sales, air traffic, steel consumption and GST E-way bills, point towards a sequential pickup in momentum of economic activity during the second half of the fiscal 2024-25 and sustain moving forward.

However, a strong dollar, driven by US economic resilience and trade policy pivots, could exacerbate capital outflows from emerging economies, push risk premiums higher, and intensify external vulnerabilities, it added.

“The USD/INR pair is expected to trade within a range of 86.60–87.20. The 87.20 level is emerging as a strong resistance, while 86.50 is acting as a critical support zone, A breach below 86.50 could open up a path for 85.80-86.00 levels,” CR Forex Advisors MD Amit Pabari said.

In the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex was trading 297.33 points, or 0.39 per cent, lower at 75,641.85 points, while the Nifty was down 69.25 points, or 0.3 per cent, at 22,863.65 points.

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) offloaded equities worth ₹1,881.30 crore on net basis on Wednesday, according to exchange data.

The rupee recovered 16 paise from all-time low closing level to 87.43 against the US dollar in early trade on Friday (Febraury 7, 2025) ahead of the Reserve Bank of India’s monetary policy announcement.

Forex traders said there is an overall negative bias in the rupee as market participants are projecting RBI to cut rates by 25 bps.

While a rate cut could help ease some of the pressure by improving liquidity and attracting foreign investments, it would also lead to an increase in rupee supply, which could further weaken the currency and exacerbate depreciation pressures, they said.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 87.57 against the greenback, and touched 87.43 against the greenback in initial trade, registering a rise of 16 paise from its previous close.

On Thursday, the rupee plunged 16 paise to close at an all-time low of 87.59 against the US dollar.

“As long as the liquidity deficit persists, the rupee will remain under pressure. Additionally, the CRR cut is further weighing on the rupee.

“With current headwinds surpassing tailwinds and compounded by the RBI’s rate cut expectations, the rupee is expected to trade at elevated levels between 87.20 and 87.70, with 87.20 acting as a support level,” CR Forex Advisors MD Amit Pabari said.

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve bank of India (RBI) began its three-day meeting on Wednesday. The MPC will announce its policy decision at 1000 hrs.

New RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra, who is chairing his first Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, will announce the decision of the six-member panel on Friday morning, amid widespread expectations of 25 basis points reduction in interest rate after a gap of nearly five years.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.03 per cent higher at 107.72.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, rose 0.50 per cent to USD 74.66 per barrel in futures trade.

In the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex was trading 39.26 points, or 0.05 per cent, lower at 78,018.90 points, while the Nifty was down 8.25 points, or 0.03 per cent, at 23,595.10 points.

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) offloaded equities worth Rs 3,549.95 crore in the capital markets on a net basis on Thursday, according to exchange data.

The rupee traded in a narrow range and depreciated 9 paise to 87.16 against the US dollar in early trade on Wednesday (February 5, 2025) , as global trade war has fuelled risk aversion among investors.

Forex traders said the rupee is trading with a negative bias over global trade war as market participants mulled the impact of tariffs being imposed by the United States and China.

However, any central bank intervention may support the rupee, they added.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 87.13 then fell further to 87.16 against the American currency, registering a decline of 9 paise over its previous close.

On Tuesday, the rupee recovered 4 paise from its all-time low level to close at 87.07 against US dollar.

“For now the trade war seems to have slowed down as we await comments from Donald Trump on European exports and also on currencies. Meanwhile, the rupee remains range bound within a range of 86.90/87.25,” said Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury and Executive Director Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP.

Mr. Trump is pressing ahead with a 10 per cent tariff on US companies importing things from China. On Tuesday, China retaliated by announcing its own tariffs on some US products and an antitrust investigation into Google.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was at 107.89, lower by 0.06 per cent.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was quoted 0.50 per cent lower at USD 75.82 per barrel in futures trade.

Investors may remain cautious ahead of the Reserve Bank of India’s monetary policy meeting this week, traders said.

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve bank of India (RBI) will begin its three-day meeting on February 5. The MPC will announce its policy decisions on February 7.

Mr. Trump on Monday (February 3, 2025) held off on his tariff threats against Mexico and Canada for 30 days after they pledged to boost border enforcement.

A vendor counts Indian rupee notes in Mumbai. File photo
| Photo Credit: AFP

The rupee depreciated 4 paise to 86.61 against the US dollar in early trade on Wednesday (January 29, 2025), due to sustained foreign fund outflows, unabated dollar demand from oil importers and weak risk appetite.

Forex traders said the rupee continued to face pressure as investors are awaiting cues from the US FED meeting outcome. Besides, global risk sentiments were dampened amid tariff threats by the US President Donald Trump, they said.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 86.58 then fell further to 86.61 against the American currency, registering a decline of 4 paise over its previous close.

On Tuesday, the rupee depreciated 26 paise to close at 86.57 against the US dollar.

Forex traders said broad dollar demand, foreign fund outflows pressurised the rupee. However, a decline in crude oil prices cushioned the downside.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was at 107.83, lower by 0.03 per cent.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was quoted 0.15 per cent lower at USD 77.37 per barrel in futures trade.

In the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex was trading 216.69 points or 0.29 per cent up at 76,118.10 in morning trade, while Nifty was higher by 68.70 points or 0.3 per cent to 23,025.95 .

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) offloaded equities worth ₹4,920.69 crore in the capital markets on net basis on Tuesday, according to exchange data.

Traders further said the Reserve Bank of India’s announcement of the open market operations (OMO) may also support the rupee at lower levels.

As part of its over ₹1.5 lakh crore liquidity injection into the banking system, the Reserve Bank on Tuesday said it will conduct a USD/INR buy-sell swap auction of USD 5 billion (about ₹43,000 crore) on January 31.

The RBI had announced OMO purchase auctions of government bonds aggregating ₹60,000 crore, Variable Rate Repo (VRR) auction of ₹50,000 crore and foreign exchange swap of USD 5 billion.

The decision on liquidity injections comes days ahead of RBI’s next bi-monthly monetary policy in which the Monetary Policy Committee may opt for a reduction in the benchmark lending rate.

The rupee declined 5 paise to 86.40 against the US dollar in early trade on Thursday (January 23, 2025) amid a strengthening greenback.

While a drop in crude oil rates and an upward trend in the domestic equity markets prevented further decline in the local currency, forex traders expected it to remain volatile throughout the day and trade in a wide range of 86.20-86.60.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 86.46, down 11 paise from its previous close, and dropped further to 86.52.

However, it recovered some of its losses as the equity markets showed an upward trend to rise to 86.40, lower by 5 paise from Wednesday’s close.

The domestic currency had appreciated 23 paise to close at 86.35 against the US dollar on Wednesday (January 22, 2024).

“Exporters may continue to wait with a stop loss at 86.25 since the rupee continues to remain in a weakening mode due to US dollar demand,” Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury and Executive Director, Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP, said.

“The rupee, which gained yesterday (Wednesday) due to inflows from Vedanta and bond market inflows, opened weaker this morning. The wide range for the day is expected to be 86.20-60,” he said.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.08 per cent higher at 108.25.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was down 0.34 per cent to USD 78.73 per barrel in futures trade.

In the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex rose 151.34 points, or 0.20 per cent, to 76,556.33, while the Nifty rose 51.95 points, or 0.22 per cent, to 23,207.30.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) remained net sellers in the capital markets on Wednesday, offloading shares worth Rs 4,026.25 crore, according to exchange data.

Forex traders said the overall uncertainty about the global economy continued to weigh on both currencies and commodities, keeping investors on edge. File photo

The rupee witnessed high volatility in morning trade on Wednesday (January 22, 2025), as the support from positive domestic equities was weighed down by significant pressure from global uncertainties prompting investors to take the cautious path.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 86.56, and fell to a low of 86.71 against the greenback in a highly volatile morning session.

Forex traders said the overall uncertainty about the global economy continued to weigh on both currencies and commodities, keeping investors on edge.

On Tuesday, the rupee fell 13 paise to 86.58 against the US dollar.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading higher by 0.07 per cent at 108.13.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, rose by 0.09 per cent to USD 79.36 per barrel.

Domestically, the Indian markets faced significant pressure from global uncertainties, and foreign investors sold more than USD 7 billion during this month pressuring the rupee and Indian markets, CR Forex Advisors MD Amit Pabari said.

“However, there is a silver lining ahead with better budget allocations and a decline in crude oil prices may provide much-needed support to the rupee. However, with the Union Budget around the corner, market volatility is likely to persist as traders remain cautious,” Mr. Pabari said.

Representational image.
| Photo Credit: PTI

The rupee dropped 12 paise to an all-time low of 85.06 against the US dollar in early trade on Thursday (December 19, 2024), as a hawkish tilt from the US Federal Reserve sparked a broad dollar rally.

Forex traders said the US Federal Reserve has adjusted its projections for 2025, signalling a more cautious monetary policy stance, pressuring emerging market currencies, including the Indian rupee.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened on a weak note and breached the crucial 85.00 level against the greenback.

It fell further to an all-time low of 85.06 against the American currency, registering a fall of 12 paise over its previous close, as dollar demand from importers, foreign fund outflows and a muted trend in domestic equities further dented investor sentiments.

On Wednesday (December 18, 2024) the rupee dropped 3 paise to close at an all-time low of 84.94 against the US dollar.

Rupee under ‘severe’ pressure

The rupee was under severe pressure as the US dollar charged ahead on hawkish FED outlook and flirted with a two-year peak at 108.04, while US 10-year bond yield rose to 4.51 per cent, said Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury and Executive Director Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP.

The US FED cut rates by 25 basis points but was very hawkish in its approach as it said that it might take another year or two to get to 2 per cent on inflation. It expects cuts of 50 bps in 2025 and another 50 bps in 2026.

“A broad sell-off in equities, commodities, and bonds has kept the dollar well bid. We expect a slow and steady depreciation as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may protect key levels though may not change the direction,” Bhansali added.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading higher by 0.01 per cent at 108.03.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, fell 0.42 per cent to USD 73.08 per barrel in futures trade, on a surging dollar and a hawkish FED after it signalled slower easing.

The Indian Rupee logo. Representational image.
| Photo Credit: REUTERS

The rupee dropped 1 paisa to 84.92 against the US dollar in early trade on Wednesday (December 18, 2024) and hovered around its all-time low level, as traders await more cues from the US FED on the interest rate front.

Forex traders said dollar demand from importers and foreign banks and a muted trend in domestic equities further dented investor sentiments.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 84.92 against the greenback, registering a fall of 1 paisa over its previous close.

On Tuesday, the rupee revisited its all-time low closing level of 84.91 against the US dollar.

The rupee remains under pressure from both global and local factors. On the global front, the ripple effects of the Federal Reserve’s anticipated slowdown in rate cuts for 2025 have been felt in India, as evidenced by a correction of over 1 per cent in Indian equities, CR Forex Advisors’ MD-Amit Pabari said.

Equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty slumped over 1 per cent on Tuesday, weighed down by an across-the-board selloff amid cautious investors’ approach ahead of the US Fed interest rate decision.

Domestically, the rising trade deficit added strain on the rupee. This increase in trade deficit was driven largely by record-high gold imports in November, Pabari noted.

India’s exports in November contracted 4.85 per cent year-on-year to USD 32.11 billion, while the trade deficit widened to an all-time high of USD 37.84 billion due to a record surge in gold imports.

The country’s gold imports in November reached a record high of USD 14.86 billion, registering a four-fold increase, mainly on account of festival and wedding demands, according to commerce ministry data.

Gold imports stood at USD 3.44 billion in November 2023.

“The USD/INR pair is expected to trade within a range of 84.50 to 85.00 in the near-term,” Pabari added.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading lower by 0.03 per cent at 106.92.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, rose 0.03 per cent to USD 73.21 per barrel in futures trade.

In the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex was trading 84.38 points or 0.10 per cent down at 80,600.07 points in morning trade, while Nifty was down 23.40 points or 0.10 per cent to 24,312.60 points.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) offloaded Rs 6,409.86 crore in the capital markets on net basis on Tuesday, according to exchange data.