Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das. File
| Photo Credit: EMMANUAL YOGINI

“With India’s current account deficit (CAD) declining sharply to 1% of GDP in Q2:2023-24 from 3.8% in Q2:2022-23,” RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das on February 8 said going ahead, the net balance under services and remittances would remain in large surplus, partly offsetting the trade deficit. 

“India’s services exports remained resilient in October-December 2023, driven by software, business and travel services. Moreover, with around 10.2% share in world telecommunications, computer and information services exports, India is a significant player in the world software business,” Mr. Das said in his statement. 

He said according to the World Bank, with an estimated $135 billion in inward remittances in 2024, India would remain the largest recipient of remittances globally.

On the financing side, Mr. Das said the net foreign direct investment (FDI) stood at $13.5 billion in April-November 2023 as compared with $19.8 billion a year ago.

“Foreign portfolio investment (FPI) witnessed a sharp turnaround during 2023-24 (up to February 6) with net FPI inflows of $32.4 billion as against net outflows of $6.7 billion a year ago,” he said. 

“Net accretions to non-resident deposits and net inflows under external commercial borrowings were also higher during the year,” he added. 

“As on February 2, 2024, India’s foreign exchange reserves stood at $622.5 billion .46 Vulnerability indicators suggest greater resilience of India’s external sector. We are confident of comfortably meeting all our external financing requirements,” he further said. 

At end-June 2023, long-term debt (with original maturity of above one year) was placed at $505.5 billion. File
| Photo Credit: K. Pichumani

India’s external debt at end-June 2023 was placed at $629.1 billion, recording an increase of $4.7 billion over its level at end-March 2023 according to data released by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on September 28.

The external debt to GDP ratio declined to 18.6% at end-June 2023 from 18.8% at end-March 2023, the RBI said.

Valuation effect due to the appreciation of the U.S. dollar vis-à-vis the major currencies such as yen and SDR2 amounted to $3.1 billion. Excluding the valuation effect, external debt would have increased by $7.8 billion instead of $4.7 billion at end-June 2023 over end-March 2023.

At end-June 2023, long-term debt (with original maturity of above one year) was placed at $505.5 billion, recording an increase of $9.6 billion over its level at end-March 2023.

Balance of Payments

Meanwhile, India’s current account deficit (CAD) narrowed to $9.2 billion (1.1% of GDP) in Q1:2023-24 from $17.9 billion (2.1% of GDP) in Q1:2022-23 but it was higher than $1.3 billion (0.2% of GDP) in the preceding quarter, according to the RBI’s data.

The widening of CAD on a quarter-on-quarter basis was primarily on account of a higher trade deficit coupled with a lower surplus in net services and decline in private transfer receipts.
Net services receipts decreased sequentially, primarily due to a decline in exports of computer, travel and business services, though remained higher on a year-on- year (y-o-y) basis.

Net outgo on the income account, primarily reflecting payments of investment income, declined to $10.6 billion in Q1:2023-24 from $12.6 billion in Q4:2022-23, though higher than a year ago.
In the financial account, net foreign direct investment decreased to $5.1 billion from $13.4 billion a year ago.

International Investment Position

Net claims of non-residents on India increased by $12.1 billion during Q1:2023-24 and stood at $379.7 billion as at end-June 2023.

The rise in net claims of non-residents during the quarter was on account of higher rise in foreign-owned financial assets in India ($36.2 billion) when compared with Indian residents’ overseas financial assets ($24.1 billion) according to data released by the RBI.

Increase in reserve assets ($16.6 billion) was the largest contributor to the rise in Indian residents’ foreign assets during April-June 2023, followed by direct investment, loans and trade credit.

Inward portfolio investment ($15.0 billion) and foreign direct investment ($8.9 billion) together accounted for two thirds of the rise in foreign liabilities of Indian residents.