Elections herald change in UK with a Labour landslide, but also France and Iran, while the campaign trail hits a shocking turn in the US- Should New Delhi worry about losing friends in high places and how will results change the geopolitical landscape for India?

Hello and Welcome to WorldView at The Hindu with me Suhasini Haidar

If 2024 is the year of elections, with 64 countries going to vote, then the past week is particularly interesting- with 4 of the world’s most prominent leaders watching results of their campaigns closely- US President Biden, Iranian Supreme Leader Khameini, French President Macron….and the biggest loser this week -UK PM Rishi Sunak and the Conservative Party.

They were crushed in a landslide by the Labour Party led by Keir Starmer- that won the biggest mandate since Tony Blair and ended a 14 year-4 term run in office that saw 5 Conservative Prime Ministers from David Cameron to Rishi Sunak

The Labour Party leader Keir Starmer, a former Human Rights lawyer and prosecutor will now lead one of the strongest majorities in the UK Parliament. Another strong showing has come from the ultra-right Reform Party led by Nigel Farage- accused of outright bigotry and a very tough anti-immigration line- which will no doubt drive the new labour government.

What does the UK loss mean for India:

1. Loss of Sunak, Britain’s first Indian-Origin PM

2. The new government will take a different line on immigration – has promised to appoint special prosecutors to crack down illegal immigrants, and sign Returns agreements with countries to send back

3. Labour past policies troubling- and though Starmer has disavowed its past positions on Kashmir and Khalistan, the worries of many Labour MPs advocating anti-India stands remains

4. The India-UK FTA has been in the works for years has not been completed. While the Labour Party is committed to the FTA, the question is, will it reopen the chapters already negotiated. At an India Global Conference, Shadow Minister David Lammy was very optimistic of completing it soon.

Across the channel, France is also seeing a second round of parliamentary elections that may severely dent President Macron’s grip on governance. The elections, which have been called 3 years early were announced after Macron’s Centrist coalition was defeated badly in June’s European Parliament elections by the Right wing National Rally -Rassemblement National. In the first round, Macron’s party came 3rd to both the ultra right RN and the Leftist bloc that combines Socialists, Communists and the Green party. If the RN were to win it would be the first time a right wing party, once accused of being anti semitic and fascist would control the French parliament since world war 2.

What does the right surge mean for India

1. If Macron is weakened by the results, that may impact France India ties too- certainly Macron has been a major friend, stepped in to be Republic Day chief guest this year after US President declined, has signed a number of major agreements with India in past 5 yrs

2. Immigration- France had begun to take a more progressive look at immigration, bring in new policies for students, and make speaking French a more stringent clause

3. RN’s leader Marine Le Pen has advocated a France First economic policy, and while she has softened her anti-EU position, might make the trade negotiations with India that much more difficult

4. Legislative gridlock that could follow from a hung parliament will make every negotiation difficult at a time France and India has growing strategic ties, also on trade, nuclear and renewable energy and defence.

Next, an election we haven’t followed as closely perhaps- in Iran, which is going to polls after a shocking helicopter crash killed its President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister, also after conflict with Israel, and after the major anti-Hijab demonstrations. The first round of these elections had two startling outcomes- a very low turnout of 40%, which is being read as a boycott of polls by an overwhelming number of voters unhappy with the regime. And in the results of the first round, Masoud Pezeshkian, a surgeon who was the Minister of Health and seen as a reformist, one who has advocated more reconciliation with the west won more votes than Khamenei protégé Saeed Jalili, Iran’s former chief nuclear negotiator. 

Here’s what to watch out for in India:

1. A win for Khamenei’s choice Jalili would no doubt signal continuity, and the same policies that India forged with his predecessor- in terms of Chabahar

2. However, Jalili’s win would also mean a continuation of US sanctions on Iran, that are already a cause for worry for India

3. A reformist win could bring in some relief internally in terms of women’s rights -Pezeshkian had publicly criticised the regime for the death of women’s activist Mahsa Amini over not wearing the hijab

4. However, real power remains with the Supreme leader and clergy, so no major policy changes can be expected

Finally, while this election is still months away, the US campaign hit a dramatic note this week in the aftermath of a disastrous drubbing to US President Joseph Biden by former President Donald Trump- with many calling for 82-year-old Biden, who appeared infirm and incoherent, to step aside in favour of another candidate as polls show Trump far ahead. Biden is said to be considering his options, but is expected to make another show of strength, in interviews and hosting a mega NATO Summit with Indo-Pacific leaders as well as Ukraine President Zelenskyy next week.

 What does it mean for India?

1. India has dealt with both Biden and Trump, and strategic and defence ties have improved with both

2. However, the Biden administration is getting tougher on India’s Russia ties, and PM Modi’s visit to Moscow next week will be seen dimly

3. While Trump has been seen as softer on Russia in the past, he also brings unpredictability and open threats, of the kind seen with Iran sanctions, and India may have to make tough choices there

4. On the economy too, Trump will drive a harder deal

35. While Biden is seen as more problematic on the issue of human rights, and the ongoing Pannun case on alleged transnational repression by India

 WV Take: The larger theme from elections in UK, France, Iran, US is that economic distress, inflation are underlying issues for people everywhere, spurring democratic change. A resultant strengthening of conservative right wing values- including anti-immigration, xenophobia and racism is a larger worry, even as Indians continue to be amongst the largest groups of illegal immigrants to Europe and US. These will have a bearing on both bilateral ties and foreign policy in the future.

 WV Book recommendations:

1. Biographies of new UK PM- Keir Starmer: by Tom Baldwin and Red Knight: The Unauthorised Biography of Sir Keir Starmer by Michael A. Ashcroft

2. The Conservative Party After Brexit: Turmoil and Transformation Kindle Edition by Tim Bale

3. Great Britain?: The instant Sunday Times bestseller and must-read for the 2024 General Election Kindle Edition by Torsten Bell

4. Politics On the Edge: by Rory Stewart also co host of podcast The Rest is Politics

5. The Macron Régime: The Ideology of the New Right in France by Charles Devellennes

6. Revolutionary Iran : A History of the Islamic Republic by Michael Axworthy

Script and Presentation: Suhasini Haidar

Production: Gayatri Menon and Shibu Narayan

As PM Modi picks the same team for diplomacy and national security- will there be any changes in Indian Foreign Policy in his third term with a coalition in charge ? What’s on his agenda for travel, and what are the foreign policy priorities for the new NDA government?

This week we want to get you primer on what to expect in Foreign Policy in the third term.

First, the NDA government’s core team dealing with diplomacy and national security remains the same:

1. EAM S Jaishankar- who met with leaders from the neighbourhood this week even before his portfolio was announced took charge, spelling out some of the priorities- and catch phrases of the new term

2. NSA Ajit Doval

3. Defence Minister Rajnath Singh

4. There are 2 new Ministers of State

KirtiVardhan Singh- who went to Kuwait for the fire tragedy

Pabitra Margherita

For those who follow these beats closely, watch out for these appointments:
Foreign Secretary- As FS Kwatra’s extension ends in October- who will be the new FS, and will Mr. Kwatra be appointed to an ambassadorial post
Deputy NSA – As Vikram Misri is tipped to return to the MEA as the FS
Ambassadors to US, UN and France

Let’s get to what the Foreign Policy Priorities of the new government will be:

 1. Neighbourhood is important, keep the comfort zone close:

-Invite to all the neighbouring countries of SAARC minus Pakistan and Afghanistan and IOR with good ties

-Special effort for Maldives President Muizzu, given the tensions of past months

-In Afghanistan and Myanmar, no recognition for Taliban or Military junta regimes

-Expect bilateral visits in the next few months- Sri Lanka, Bangladesh etc

-Trouble zone of China and Pakistan will be on agenda, but different tacks with both

With China,

-An early détente over LAC situation will be key, possible meeting with Xi Jinping next month on sidelines of SCO

-After 2 years, China is back as India’s biggest trading partner

-Even so, Pres Xi Jinping did not greet PM Modi- it was Premier Li Qiang who sent a message

-Significant that Beijing hosted Pakistan PM Sharif last week, even as election results and swearing in was taking place in India, issued a joint statement including parts on Jammu Kashmir that MEA objected to

With Pakistan

-No early détente expected, although Pakistan FM has hinted at movement on trade

-Attack in Jammu on day of swearing in is part of growing violence in JK, will make any engagement with Pakistan difficult

3. Global Power Balance

-PM Modi is expected to continue the tightrope walk over the geopolitical rivalries between US and the West and Russia and Global South

-PM was in Italy for the G-7, as India was one of 12 countries invited to the outreach, meeting with western leaders including Biden, Sunak, Macron, Scholz, Meloni and Ukraine President Zelenskyy who was a special invitee

-Next month will be in Kazakhstan for the SCO summit- Putin, Xi, Sharif, Iran, Central Asian leaders expected
Plans to host Quad Summit later this year, but also to travel to Russia for BRICS summit

-India will maintain its stance on Russia-Ukraine war

-New Delhi will keep focus on Global South issues- particularly on Food, Fuel, Fertilizer security

4. UN and multilateral forum leadership

-Keep up the push for UN reform

-In September India is expected to make a renewed pitch for a permanent seat at the UN Security Council- along with G-4 partners Brazil, Germany, Japan, they also advocate a seat for Africa

-Memberships for other groupings like NSG will be pursued

5. Trade agreements

-FTAs with UK, Australia, EU, GCC, Oman on the anvil

-FTA talks with Canada on hold

-Revision of FTAs with ASEAN etc required, given RCEP in place

-In the US a Trump government could restart FTA talks as well

So whats big on Modi’s travel agenda?

June- G7, Italy

July- SCO, Kazakhstan

September- UNGA, NY

October- ASEAN-India summit, Laos

October- BRICS summit, Russia

November- G20, Brazil

November/ December- Possible Quad Summit in India

Single Party vs Coalition: Wil Foreign Policy be impacted?

 -No major change expected due to coalition politics and pressures, which will be domestic

-However, a stronger opposition in Parliament will scrutinize all FP moves more, particularly on China

-In a third term, and with more domestic political commitments, PM Modi may travel less, leaving more responsibility with the EAM for travel

-Attracting investment will be key to bilateral ties, may be more evenly spread out, given coalition partners are from states.

-WV Take:

While no major changes are expected on the foreign policy front, given the team in place for the new NDA government- there are certain indicators one can glean- In a third term, leaders often turn inwards towards domestic reforms and consolidation rather than new policies, and more reactive than proactive to international developments. Of particular concern is to ensure that intractable relations- whether with China, Pakistan, Canada, Turkey or the Maldives are not neglected, even as New Delhi shores up its ties with traditional friends.

 WV Reading Recommendations:

1. Nehru’s First Recruits: The Diplomats Who Built Independent India’s Foreign Policy by Kallol Bhattacherjee

2. India’s Trade Policy: The 1990s and Beyond by Arvind Panagariya, important read from his former columns after India’s Moment: Changing Power Equations around the World by Mohan Kumar

3. Biden And Beyond: The United States Rethinks South Asia, Edited by C Raja Mohan and Hernaikh Singh

4. Covert: The Psychology of War and Peace A.S. Dulat, Asif Durrani and Neil Aggarwal

5. Tyranny of the Minority: How to Reverse an Authoritarian Turn, and Forge a Democracy for All by Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt

Script and Presentation: Suhasini Haidar

Production: Gayatri Menon and Shibu Narayan