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The rupee depreciated 45 paise to hit a record low of 87.95 against the U.S. dollar in early trade on Monday (February 10, 2025) weighed down by the strength of the American currency in the overseas market and a negative trend in domestic equities.

Forex traders said the dollar index was quoted at 108 gained after President Donald Trump said he was said to impose new 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminium imports.

The move has added jitters over the global trade war with China’s reciprocal duties coming into effect, they said.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 87.94 and slipped further to all-time low of 87.95 against the greenback in initial deals, a fall of 45 paise from its previous close.

On Friday, the rupee recovered 9 paise from all-time low level to close at 87.50 against the U.S. dollar.

Rupee was expected to open weaker after RBI cut rates on Friday by 25 bps and was expected to cut another 25 bps in April to promote growth as inflation seemed to be showing a downward trend as per the Reserve Bank, said Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury and Executive Director Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP.

The target of 88 is likely to be achieved in February itself as quick upside with RBI allowing the weakness to creep in has taken the pair to its all time highest level.

“The rupee is expected to be within a range of 87.70/88.10. Importers are expected to buy the dips, while exporters need to wait and watch the movement,” Mr. Bhansali added.

Reserve Bank Governor Sanjay Malhotra on Saturday said that the market forces decide the value of rupee with respect to the U.S. dollar and the central bank is not worried about day-to-day movement of the currency value.

Addressing the media after the meeting of Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman with the Reserve Bank board, Mr. Malhotra said that the central bank focuses on the value of the rupee in the medium to long term.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.22% higher at 108.28.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, rose 0.63% to $75.13 per barrel in futures trade.

Forex traders said the Indian rupee is trading with a negative bias as foreign banks went on a dollar-buying spree and importers scrambled to secure dollars, as they feared further depreciation amidst global uncertainty.

In the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex was trading 426.34 points, or 0.55%, lower at 77,433.85 points, while the Nifty was down 134.65 points, or 0.57%, at 23,425.30 points.

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) offloaded equities worth ₹470.39 crore in the capital markets on a net basis on Friday, according to exchange data.

Meanwhile, India’s forex reserves rose $1.05 billion to $630.607 billion for the week ended January 31, the RBI said on Friday.

In the previous reporting week, the overall reserves had increased by $5.574 billion to $629.557 billion.

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| Photo Credit: Reuters

The rupee extended its slide for the second straight session and declined 13 paise to hit a fresh record low of 85.87 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday (January 8, 2025) amid higher crude oil prices and stronger American currency.

Lacklustre sentiment in domestic equity markets and sustained outflow of foreign funds also played spoilsport even as investors stayed cautious over lower economic growth projection by the government, forex analysts said.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 85.82 and touched the lowest-ever level of 85.89 against the greenback during intra-day. The unit settled at 85.87 (provisional) against the dollar, 13 paise lower than its previous close.

On Tuesday, the rupee settled with a loss of 6 paise at 85.74 against the dollar.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.35 per cent higher at 108.76.

The 10-year U.S. bond yields also remained elevated at 4.67 per cent amid expectations of delayed interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, climbed 0.90% to $77.74 per barrel in futures trade.

In the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex skid 50.62 points, or 0.06%, to settle at 78,148.49 points, while the Nifty fell 18.95 points, or 0.08%, to 23,688.95 points.

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) offloaded ₹1,491.46 crore in the capital markets on a net basis on Tuesday, according to exchange data.

The latest government data released on Tuesday showed India’s economic growth rate is estimated to slip to a four-year low of 6.4% in 2024-25 due to poor show by the manufacturing and services sectors.

The gross domestic product (GDP) growth at 6.4% will be the lowest since the Covid year (2020-21) when the country witnessed a negative growth of 5.8%. It was 8.2% in the last fiscal year ended March 2024.

The first advance estimates of the national income for 2024-25 released by the National Statistics Office (NSO) is lower than the 6.6% projected by the Reserve Bank in December 2024.

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The rupee consolidated in a narrow range and settled for the day higher by 1 paisa at 84.90 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday (December 17, 2024), weighed down by disappointing trade balance data and weak domestic markets.

Forex traders said the rupee is likely to remain under pressure due to concerns over slowdown in the economy and dollar demand from importers and foreign banks.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 84.89 and touched an all-time low of 84.93 against the greenback during intra-day trade.

The unit finally ended the session marginally higher by 1 paisa at 84.90 (provisional) against the dollar.

On Monday, the rupee depreciated 11 paise to close at an all-time low of 84.91 against the U.S. dollar.

“We expect the rupee to trade with a negative bias on weak domestic markets and concerns over slowdown in the economy. A strong US dollar and FII outflows may further weigh on the rupee,” said Anuj Choudhary, Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas.

On the domestic macroeconomic front, India’s exports in November contracted 4.85% year-on-year to $32.11 billion, while the trade deficit widened to an all-time high of $37.84 billion due to a record surge in gold imports.

The country’s gold imports in November reached a record high of $14.86 billion, registering a four-fold increase, mainly on account of festival and wedding demands, according to commerce ministry data.

Gold imports stood at $3.44 billion in November 2023.

“Traders may take cues from retail sales and industrial production data from the US. Investors may watch out for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting decision later this week. USDINR spot price is expected to trade in a range of 84.75 to 85.15,” Mr. Choudhary added.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading higher by 0.17% at 107.03.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, fell 0.49% to $73.55 per barrel in futures trade.

On the domestic equity market front, the 30-share benchmark index Sensex closed lower by 1,064.12 points, or 1.30%, at 80,684.45 points. The Nifty was down 332.25 points, or 1.35%, to 24,336.00 points.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) offloaded ₹278.70 crore in the capital markets on a net basis on Monday, according to exchange data.

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Rupee opened on a flat note and rose just 4 paise from its all-time low level to 84.71 against the U.S. dollar in morning trade on Thursday (December 5, 2024), as the support from positive domestic equities was negated by the broad strength of the American currency in the overseas market.

Forex traders said rupee is likely to remain under pressure in the near-term amid strong dollar and elevated in crude oil prices.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 84.72 and moved in a tight range and touched 84.71 against the greenback, registering a gain of just 4 paise over its previous close.

On Wednesday, the rupee slumped by 7 paise to hits its lowest-ever closing level of 84.75 against the U.S. dollar.

“The upcoming RBI monetary policy meeting on December 6 will be pivotal, as a balanced stance on inflation and growth could further enhance sentiment and attract fresh inflows,” CR Forex Advisors’ Amit Pabari said.

The Reserve Bank’s high-level panel on Wednesday started deliberations on the bi-monthly monetary policy amid expectations of status quo on interest rate as the retail inflation is above the upper tolerance level of the Central bank.

The decision taken by the RBI Governor Shaktikanāta Das headed six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will be announced on Friday (December 6).

Looking ahead, the US Fed’s anticipated pivot towards rate cuts in 2025 could further improve the appeal of emerging markets like India. Moreover, this, combined with stabilizing FII flows, could ease liquidity constraints and enable the RBI to step up its forex market interventions, Mr. Pabari added.

The dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading lower by 0.05% at 106.26.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, rose by 0.10% to $72.38 per barrel in futures trade.

On the domestic equity market front, the 30-share benchmark index Sensex was trading 49.20 points, or 0.06% higher, to 81,005.53 points. The Nifty rose 47.85 points, or 0.2%, to 24,515.30 points.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net buyers in the capital markets on Wednesday, as they purchased shares worth ₹1,797.60 crore, according to exchange data.

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The rupee turned flat at 84.42 against the U.S. dollar in early trade on Thursday (November 21, 2024) amid volatile crude oil prices and lackluster sentiment in the domestic equity markets.

A weaker American currency supported the local unit, but it was weighed down by the relentless outflow of foreign funds, forex traders said.

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At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 84.41 and slipped further to 84.42 against the greenback, trading at its previous closing level in early deals.

On Tuesday, the rupee settled flat at 84.42 against the U.S. dollar. The foreign exchange market was closed on Wednesday due to Assembly elections in Maharashtra.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading lower by 0.11% at 106.49.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, rose by 0.22% to $72.97 per barrel in futures trade.

On the domestic equity market front, Sensex was trading 398.45points, or 0.51% lower, at 77,179.93 points. The Nifty fell 136.10 points, or 0.58%, to 23,382.40 points.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on Tuesday, as they offloaded shares worth ₹3,411.73 crore, according to exchange data.

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| Photo Credit: Reuters

Rupee depreciated 4 paise to close at 84.09 (provisional) against U.S. dollar on Wednesday (October 30, 2024), weighed down by weak domestic markets and month-end dollar demand from importers.

Forex traders said suspected intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) supported the local currency at lower levels.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 84.06 against the greenback. It traded in a tight range and ended the day at 84.09 (provisional), down 4 paise from its previous close.

On Tuesday, the rupee gained 2 paise to settle at 84.05 against the U.S. dollar.

The local currency has been hovering around its all-time low level. Rupee touched its lowest closing level of 84.10 against the dollar on October 11.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.15% lower at 104.16. Forex traders said the dollar declined on disappointing jobs data from the U.S.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, rose 0.53% to $71.50 per barrel in futures trade.

“We expect the rupee to trade with a mixed to negative bias on weak domestic markets and sustained FII outflows. Month-end dollar demand from importers may further weigh on the rupee.

“However, softening of U.S. dollar amid disappointing jobs markets may support the rupee at lower levels. Traders may watch out for Q3 2024 GDP data and non-farm payrolls report from the U.S. this week,” said Anuj Choudhary – Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas.

On the domestic equity market front, Sensex declined 426.85 points, or 0.53%, to 79,942.18 points. The Nifty fell 126.00 points, or 0.51%, to 24,340.85 points.

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on Tuesday, as they offloaded shares worth ₹548.69 crore, according to exchange data.

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The rupee pared its initial gains and settled on a flat note at 83.99 against the U.S. dollar on Monday (October 7, 2024) on selling pressure from foreign funds and weak tone in the domestic markets.

Forex traders said elevated crude oil prices and escalating tensions between Israel and Iran weighed on the local unit, while all-time high forex reserves boosted investor sentiments.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 83.96 against the U.S. dollar and touched an intra-day high of 83.95 and a low of 83.99.

The domestic currency finally ended the day at 83.99 (provisional), unchanged from its previous closing level.

“We expect the rupee to trade with a negative bias on selling pressure from foreign funds and weak tone in the domestic markets. Escalating tensions between Israel and Iran may further pressurise the rupee,” said Anuj Choudhary, Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas.

Mr. Choudhary said traders may take cues from comments by U.S. Fed officials.

“Investors may remain cautious ahead of the RBI’s monetary policy meeting outcome on Wednesday,” he said, adding that USDINR spot price is expected to trade in a range of ₹83.80-84.20.

Meanwhile, India’s forex reserves jumped $12.588 billion to a new all-time high of $704.885 billion for the week ended September 27, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said on Friday.

On the domestic equity market front, the Sensex fell 638.45 points, or 0.78%, to close at 81,050.00. The Nifty declined 218.85 points, or 0.87% to settle at 24,795.75. Both indices suffered losses in the previous week.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was up 0.07% to 102.59.

Brent crude, the international benchmark, advanced 2.09% to $79.68 in futures trade.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on Friday, offloading shares worth ₹9,896.95 crore on a net basis in the cash segment, according to exchange data.

Representational image.
| Photo Credit: RUPAK DE CHOWDHURI

Rupee rises 2 paise to 83.64 against the US dollar in early trade on Friday (September 27, 2024) amid softening crude oil prices and inflow of foreign funds.

The Indian currency was, however, weighed down by a subdued domestic equity market and a stronger greenback against major rivals overseas amid increased month-end dollar demand from importers, forex traders said.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the local unit opened at 83.64 and touched the low of 83.69 before trading again at 83.64 against the American currency, registering a gain of 2 paise from its previous close.

On Thursday, the rupee declined 8 paise to settle at 83.66 against the American currency.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was up 0.15 per cent to 100.39.

Analysts said the market participants were awaiting further cues from the personal consumption expenditure data to be released in the US on Friday.

Brent crude, the international benchmark, fell 0.36 per cent to 71.34 in futures trade.

On the domestic equity markets front, the Sensex fell 9.15 points or 0.01 per cent o 85,826.97, while the Nifty inched up 5.80 points or 0.02 per cent to 26,221.85. Both the indices closed at their highest levels on Thursday.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net buyers in the capital markets on Thursday, purchasing shares worth Rs 629.96 crore, according to exchange data.

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The rupee appreciated 2 paise to 83.84 against the U.S. dollar in early trade on Tuesday (September 17, 2024), helped by a weak greenback against major crosses overseas and lower crude oil prices in international markets.

However, a sluggish trend in the domestic equities and fresh foreign fund outflows amid U.S. rate cut expectations restricted the rise in the local unit, forex traders said.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened slightly weak at 83.87 but gained some ground to turn positive at 83.84, registering a rise of 2 paise from its previous close.

On Monday, the local unit settled at 83.86 against the U.S. dollar.

“A decline in crude oil prices, (recent) healthy foreign institutional inflows into Indian equities, and speculation about a possible rate cut by the Federal Reserve have stirred hopes of stability. Moreover, the Reserve Bank of India is poised to step in around the crucial 84-mark, likely deploying its reserves to prevent a further slide in the rupee,” said, Amit Pabari, MD, CR Forex Advisors.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, declined 0.05% to 100.38.

Brent crude, the international benchmark, gained 0.45% to $73.08 per barrel in futures trade.

In the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex fell 59.75 points, or 0.07%, to 82,929.03, while the Nifty slipped 4.85 points, or 0.02%, to 25,378.90.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) turned net sellers in the capital markets on Monday, as they sold shares worth ₹1,634.98 crore, according to exchange data.

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| Photo Credit: Reuters

The rupee rose 2 paise to 83.96 against the U.S. dollar in early trade on Wednesday (September 4, 2024) aided by a weakening dollar against major currencies overseas and a drop in crude oil prices.

The dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was down 0.14% to 101.67.

Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, declined 0.62% to 73.29 in futures trade.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 83.96, higher by 2 paise from its previous close and stayed put. The unit had settled at 83.98 against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday.

“Amid the backdrop of this week’s jobs data, U.S. markets experienced a significant sell-off yesterday as investors sought refuge accompanied by a sharp drop in oil prices,” CR Forex Advisors Managing Director Amit Pabari said.

Meanwhile, in the domestic equity markets, Sensex tumbled 721.75 points to 81,833.69 in early trade, while Nifty tanked 196.05 points to 25,083.80.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net buyers in the capital markets on Tuesday, as they purchased shares worth ₹1,029.25 crore, according to exchange data.