The new year has brought little change in the geopolitical turmoil unleashed by the Trump administration, beginning with the U.S.’s unlawful action in Venezuela, followed by its threats to carry out similar regime-changing operations in South America and stated plans to annex Greenland. The U.S. Congress is now expected to discuss a new law that mandates up to 500% in tariffs on countries purchasing oil or uranium from Russia. The U.S. also stepped up its rhetoric against Iran for crackdowns against protesters, imposing more sanctions and threatening to attack it. In a social media post, Mr. Trump said that he would levy an additional 25% tariff on trade with any country doing business with Iran and the U.S. is pushing India to wind up operations at Chabahar port, where India has invested billions of dollars. In the face of such aggressive and unilateral actions, New Delhi’s responses have been muted, when not weak. The Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) has expressed “deep concern” over events in Venezuela, but did not mention the U.S.’s egregious action of kidnapping the Venezuelan President and his wife, nor did it refer to the violation of basic tenets of international law. No statement has been made on the threats against the other countries (Cuba and Colombia), presumably as they are not in India’s immediate vicinity. On Iran, however, which is a close neighbour and has a historical relationship with India, the government’s reaction has been the most puzzling. It has not commented on the street protests or the U.S.’s threats of strikes and tariffs. The MEA has, however, issued travel advisories for Iran and Israel and is preparing evacuation plans for Indian students in Iran. Government officials also say India will reduce its trade with Iran further from current low levels.

The government’s motivations in not naming the U.S. for its obvious overreach can be explained. After a tense year in ties and a failure to conclude the India-U.S. Bilateral Trade Agreement, there is some hope of some movement on relations soon. U.S. Ambassador to India Sergio Gor has painted an optimistic future for ties, beginning with the trade agreement and the inclusion of India in the U.S.’s high-technology partnership ‘Pax Silica’ next month. Officials may argue that little can be gained by speaking up now and risking another downturn in ties. However, each new threat by the U.S. is hurting ordinary Indians and the Indian economy. Above all, India stands to lose economically, reputationally and in terms of its other relationships as well, in a year where it hopes to host the BRICS+ Summit. The Modi government’s experience from 2019, when it gave up buying Iranian and Venezuelan oil under U.S. pressure should be a signal lesson — appeasement of a global power, however strong, cannot ensure India’s interests, only an assertion of its strategic autonomy can do that.

Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal on Wednesday (November 5, 2025) said India and the U.S. are holding continuous discussions for the proposed bilateral trade agreement.

“Talks are going well and are continuously going on. kaee samvedanasheel mudde hai, kaee gambheer mudde hai, toh svaabhaavik hai ki thoda samay lagega (There are many sensitive issues, many serious issues, so it is natural that it will take some time),” he told reporters in Auckland.

He was replying to a question about the progress on India-U.S. negotiations on the pact.

Mr. Goyal is in Auckland on a four-day official visit. He is leading a business delegation.

Five rounds of talks have been completed so far for the first phase of the bilateral trade agreement between the U.S. and India.

A team of Indian officials, headed by Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal, was in Washington last month to hold trade talks with their U.S. counterparts. The three-day talks ended on October 17.

In February this year, leaders of India and the U.S. directed officials to negotiate a proposed Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA). They have fixed a deadline to conclude the first tranche of the pact by the fall of 2025.

These deliberations are important, as relations between the two countries have been under severe strain since the U.S. President Donald Trump administration imposed a steep 50% tariff on Indian goods. It includes a 25% additional import duty for buying Russian crude oil.

The proposed pact aims to more than double the bilateral trade to $500 billion by 2030 from the current $191 billion.

The U.S. remained India’s largest trading partner for the fourth consecutive year in 2024-25, with bilateral trade valued at $131.84 billion ($86.5 billion exports). It accounts for about 18% of India’s total goods exports, 6.22% in imports, and 10.73% in the country’s total merchandise trade.

India’s merchandise exports to the U.S. declined by 11.93% to $5.46 billion in September due to the high tariffs imposed by Washington, while imports increased by 11.78% to $3.98 billion during the month, according to the Commerce Ministry data.

India continues to be “fully engaged” with the U.S. on a Bilateral Trade Agreement, Commerce Secretary Sunil Barthwal said on Thursday, however adding that the date for the next round of negotiations has not yet been decided.

He reiterated the deadline for the deal as fall 2025, or September-October 2025, as announced by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and U.S. President Donald Trump.

Official sources have also confirmed that India was working with both the U.K. and the EU to fast-track the implementation of the respective trade deals India was concluding with them. During the Indian team’s visit to Washington in July to continue negotiations on the deal, it had been decided that the next round would take place in New Delhi during the last week of August.

However, a lot has changed since then. US President Donald Trump on July 31 approved a 25% tariff on imports from India, and then on August 6 approved an additional 25% tariffs as a “penalty” for India’s imports of Russian oil. Mr. Trump has also indicated that further negotiations would not take place until the Russia oil issue was resolved.

Against this backdrop of uncertainty, Mr. Barthwal said that negotiations on the BTA were still progressing.

Negotiations progressing

“We are fully engaged with the U.S. on the trade negotiations,” Mr. Barthwal said at a press briefing. “There was a joint statement that was given by the U.S. President and our Prime Minister where it was said India and the U.S. would engage in a bilateral trade agreement and simultaneously we would also aim to more than double our trade to $500 billion.”

“Those talks are going on,” he added. “The BTA talks are going on. We are engaged.”

However, Mr. Barthwal added that the final date for the next round of negotiations would be decided closer to the last week of August.

According to official sources who declined to be named, the negotiations and engagement between India and the U.S. was taking place at different levels.

“One level is at the negotiating team’ level, another one happens at the Ministers’ level, the third happens at the diplomatic levels, and we also engage the different industries of the U.S. to look into their issues,” the official explained.

Other deals being fast-tracked

The India-United Kingdom Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA), signed in July, is now in the final stage where the UK is concluding its due processes in its Parliament.

“We have requested the UK to fast-track this process so it comes into force as early as possible,” another government source said. They added that the Trade and Economic Partnership Agreement (TEPA) between India and the EFTA countries — Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland — would come into force on October 1.

“With the EU, we are fast-tracking the negotiations,” they explained. “But a lot of work has progressed and it was decided that the FTA would be concluded by the end of December. It has made good progress and there are further meetings that are going to happen, at the negotiators’ level, the Secretary level, and at the Ministerial level.”

With Oman, the talks on a trade agreement have concluded and the deal will be signed “very soon”, when the dates are decided by both countries.

Good progress with ASEAN countries

The negotiating team representing the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries was in India between August 10-14 to review the Trade in Goods Agreement between the two.

“We are telling them that we need to increase trade between India and ASEAN,” the official said. “Everybody is concerned about the uncertain global policy environment. They have realised that both ASEAN and India move forward and improve trade between the two blocks.”

They added that India and the ASEAN countries were not only looking at tariff issues but also non-tariff issues, such as Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) measures and Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT) and regulatory compliances.

“Since these are issues that require deep analysis, that analysis is going on,” the official said. “This round has been quite fruitful. There is a lot of clarity on how we should move forward.”