The decision to hike U.S. H-1B visa application fee to $100,000, trade talks and the GST rate cut will be the key drivers for stock market movement this week, analysts said.

Besides, trends in global equity markets would also be tracked by investors.

“This week, markets will first react to the U.S. imposing an annual fee of $100,000 on H-1B visas, announced late on Friday (September 19, 2025). While export-driven sectors are already grappling with tariff-related pressures, this move could further weigh on IT services exporters at a sensitive time when trade negotiations remain underway,” Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd, said.

Globally, investors will be closely monitoring the performance of U.S. markets in the aftermath of the Federal Reserve’s rate cut, he added.

Trouble mounted for the $285-billion Indian IT sector in its largest outsourcing market, as the U.S. decided to hike H-1B visa application fee to $100,000 (about ₹88 lakh), with apex body Nasscom warning that business continuity for onshore projects will be disrupted.

Notably, Indian tech professionals account for bulk of H-1Bs, over 70%.

“This move [the U.S. decision to hike H-1B visa application fee to $100,000] could sharply increase costs for U.S. clients and reduce demand for Indian tech talent, directly impacting the revenue visibility of large IT exporters such as TCS, Infosys, and Wipro,” Pravesh Gour, Senior Technical Analyst, Swastika Investmart, said.

On the domestic front, traders will also monitor rupee movement and crude oil prices, both of which remain key drivers for Indian equities, he added.

Meanwhile, Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal will lead an official delegation to the U.S. for trade talks on September 22, an official statement said on Saturday.

The delegation plans to hold talks with U.S. team to take forward discussions with a view to achieve early conclusion of a mutually beneficial trade agreement, it said.

During the last visit of the team of officials from the office of United States Trade Representative to India on September 16, positive discussions were held on various aspects of the trade deal, and it was decided to intensify efforts in this regard.

Prices of kitchen staples to electronics, from medicines and equipment to automobiles, will get cheaper from Monday as the reduced GST rates on about 375 items come into effect.

In a bonanza to consumers, the GST Council, comprising Centre and states, has decided to reduce tax rates on goods and services, from September 22 — the first day of the Navaratri.

Markets would also track trading activity of foreign investors. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) bought equities worth ₹390.74 crore on Friday, according to exchange data.

On the global front, focus now shifts to key U.S. macroeconomic data, including GDP, manufacturing & services PMI, and PCE Price Index.

Vikram Kasat, Head – Advisory, PL Capital, said, “As India heads into the festive season, all eyes are on how markets digest recent GST rate cuts, evolving consumer demand trends, and the steady stream of IPOs that have kept primary market activity resilient despite global volatility.”

Last week, the BSE benchmark jumped 721.53 points or 0.88%, and the Nifty climbed 213.05 points or 0.84%.

Published – September 21, 2025 12:52 pm IST

Image used for representative purpose only.
| Photo Credit: Reuters

The secondary markets have delivered positive performance amidst significant volatility witnessed since the commencement of FY25 and on a longer-term basis, Indian markets have been among the best-performing markets in the world the Economic Survey 2024-25 has stated. 

“The compounded annualised returns of Nifty 50 for the past ten years [since March 2014] stand at 8.8% [adjusted for USD], trailing below few indices, such as the U.S. NASDAQ composite index [15.3% and U.S. Dow Jones [9.2%] among a select set of significant markets as of December 2024,” the survey pointed out.

Also Read | Excessive financialisation can hurt the economy says Economic Survey

“The corresponding CAGR of China’s Shanghai Composite indices stands at 3.2%. The positive performance of the Indian stock was driven by strong profitability growth, rapid traction of digital financial infrastructure, expanding investor base and substantial reforms in products and processes,” it stated. 

In line with the performance of Indian markets, India’s weight in the MSCI-EM index reached a new high of 20% in July 2024 before settling down at 19.4% at the end of December 2024. This is only the third highest after China and Taiwan, the Survey highlighted.

Emphasising that the period since the pandemic has seen a surge in individual and household participation as capital market investors through direct (trading in markets through their accounts) and indirect (through mutual funds) channels, the Survey stated that healthy corporate earnings, stable macro fundamentals, trust garnered by mutual fund ecosystem and online digital investment platforms have encouraged greater participation in capital markets.

“The incremental addition to demat accounts has been continuously increasing, with the number of demat accounts rising sharply by 33% to 18.5 crore at the end of December 2024 on a YoY basis. In the equity cash segment, individual investor share turnover41 was 35.6 per cent from April to December 2024,” it mentioned.

There are 11.5 crore unique investors with demat accounts and 5.6 crore unique investors in mutual funds as of the end of December 2024, it added.

“Higher investor participation has engendered a self-reinforcing cycle of strong market returns, bringing in even more investors. This, in turn, will eventually transform the securities market into a more diverse, inclusive, and robust platform for wealth creation,” the Survey emphasised.

Notwithstanding the market volatility and geopolitical uncertainties, the primary markets continued to witness heightened listing activities and investor enthusiasm in FY25, the Survey found. 

Also Read | Economic Survey 2024-25 cautions against ‘meaningful’ market correction in 2025

“As per the E&Y Global IPO trends, Indian stock exchanges provide conducive market conditions for foreign conglomerates to list their local subsidiaries, thereby offering a good opportunity for unlocking value. India’s share in global IPO listings surged to 30% in 2024, up from 17% in 2023, making it the leading contributor of primary resource mobilisation globally,” it started.

“The total resource mobilisation from primary markets [equity and debt] stands at ₹11.1 lakh crore from April to December 2024, which is 5% more than the amount mobilised during the entire FY24. This also amounts to 25.6% of gross fixed capital formation of private and public corporations during FY24,” it concluded. 

Image used for representative purpose only
| Photo Credit: Reuters

Key stock indices on Monday (September 30, 2024) slid about 1.5% on fears over escalating geopolitical tensions in West Asia. 

The S&P BSE Sensex fell 1,272 points or 1.49% to 84,299.78. The Sensex stocks which lost the most included Reliance down 3.23%, Axis Bank (3.12%), M&M (2.70%), ICICI Bank (2.58%), Nestle (2.12%) and Tech Mahindra (2.10%).

The NSE Nifty-50 index, too, slid 368 points, or 1.41%, to 25,810.85.

Ameya Ranadive Chartered Market Technician, CFTe, Sr Technical Analyst, StoxBox said, “Indian shares opened significantly lower on Monday, influenced by mixed global cues and escalating geopolitical tensions involving Israel, Lebanon, and Iran.”

He said the fall in Sensex and the Nifty-50 marked their worst day in nearly two months. 

“This decline was driven by concerns over potential conflicts in the Middle East that could disrupt oil supply. Mixed economic signals from the U.S. added to the uncertainty, as recent data showed a decline in the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, fueling hopes for a potential easing of monetary policy,” he said. 

“However, investors remained cautious ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech at the National Association for Business Economics Annual Meeting,” he added. 

Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst, LKP Securities said this decline indicates potential further weakness. “Sentiment may remain weak in the near term,” he added.