The story so far: Less than a month after he signed into law an Act that would see tariffs of up to 100% on countries that import large amounts of Russian oil and gas, U.S. President Donald Trump on October 10, 2026, announced a deal with Russia that would allow it to sell diesel to the U.S. and the global open market. The next day, Mr. Trump also announced an ‘energy ceasefire’ between Russia and Ukraine. All of this has implications for India, its energy sector, and its trade.

Explained | How will the U.S.’s Sanctioning Act affect India?

What is the deal with Russia on diesel?

On October 10, 2026, Mr. Trump took to Truth Social to say he has concluded “a highly successful discussion” with Russian President Vladimir Putin in which it was agreed that Russia would “immediately” supply over 300,000 tonnes of diesel to the U.S. and to the global market, another 500,000 tonnes in November, and 1 million tonnes “immediately thereafter”.

Further, he said that, based on the condition of its diesel refineries, Russia will after this schedule deliver another 3 million tonnes of diesel “within a short period of time”.

Mr. Trump’s reasoning for this move was that it would bring down fuel prices for the U.S. and the world. In fact, in response to criticism on the deal, he again took to Truth Social to say that he “made the right choice for the American People — ALWAYS, AMERICA FIRST!”.

The View from India | Punished for importing Russian oil

What are the complications with the deal?

On September 18, Mr. Trump signed into law the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026. This Act had received remarkable bipartisan support across Democrats and Republicans in both the Senate as well as in the House of Representatives.

The precise aim of the law is to clamp down on Russia’s funding for its war in Ukraine, through sanctions on its leadership and companies, and tariffs on its major fuel trade partners. Now leaders on both sides of the political spectrum are saying that this latest diesel agreement undermines the very foundation of the law.

“Through the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act, we gave the president significant authorities [sic] and leverage against China and Russia to bring Putin’s war to an end with a negotiated settlement,” House of Representatives member and Republican Michael McCaul of Texas said in an X post.

“Unfortunately, while I understand the desire to bring down diesel prices, I am concerned the lifting of sanctions on Russian oil will only fund the Kremlin’s war machine — emboldening more violence and destruction, as we have seen in recent days,” Mr. McCaul added.

A further complication comes from the fact that the Act itself threatens tariffs of up to 100% on the biggest importers of Russian oil and gas. China and India are by far the largest importers of energy from Russia, but China has struck a deal with the U.S. so that no additional tariffs can be levied on it until early 2027.

That leaves India as the major importer of Russian oil on which these tariffs could be applicable.

Also Read | Amid concerns over Russia sanctions law, Foreign Secretary meets U.S. delegation

What are the implications for India?

India has been trying to conclude a trade deal with the U.S. since February 2025. However, each time progress is made, the U.S. makes a change to its tariff or trade policies that scuppers the discussions. This time will be no different.

While talks were gathering steam in June last year over a ‘mini deal’ on tariffs, the escalation of U.S. tariffs on India to 50% in August 2025 stalled those talks. The reason for that escalation had been India’s imports of Russian oil.

Talks resumed in October 2025 and by February 2026, the leaders of the two countries issued a joint statement saying they had agreed to a framework for an interim agreement on trade. The deadline for this deal was unofficially set as March-April 2026.

However, in March, the U.S. launched investigations into India and several other countries on two counts: whether they had done enough to stop the import of forced labour, and whether they were using structural excess capacity to hurt the U.S. economy. While the forced labour investigation resulted in 10% tariffs on India in July, the excess capacity one is yet to be completed.

Once again, the deal talks slowed down, a situation that was exacerbated by the passage of the Russia Sanctions Act in September.

This latest U.S. deal with Russia on diesel is expected to further complicate matters since the U.S. is indulging in the very actions it is looking to penalise India for. While historical data has shown that India has largely toed the line when it comes to Russia’s sanctions and prohibitive tariffs, the situation this time could be different.

Not only are fuel supplies constrained due to the conflict in West Asia, this seeming hypocrisy on the U.S.’ part is likely to further irritate leaders in India.

Also Read | Trump’s diesel deal with Putin draws criticism from a frustrated Congress

What are the implications of the ‘energy ceasefire’?

Mr. Trump did not reveal any details about the ceasefire, its timeline, duration, or extent. In fact, in response to his announcement, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that the ceasefire was “news for me”, implying he was not aware of the discussions. However, he later said that he was willing to cooperate.

Ukraine has been successfully attacking Russian refineries to the extent that Russia has been forced to import refined fuel from its partners despite itself having vast amounts of crude oil.

Russia imported a record 172,000 tonnes of oil products in August, according to a report by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA). The report added that India accounted for 70% of these imports by Russia.

Should an energy ceasefire come into effect, and depending on its duration, Russia will likely be able to repair its refineries and begin its own supplies of fuel. This would mean it would no longer require fuel from India.

However, that ceasefire may remain just a statement. Days after the announcement, Mr. Zelenskyy took to social media to say that “last night, we did not attack any energy facilities on the territory of Russia… while Russia attacked our gas stations, energy infrastructure, and other facilities”.

“The message from Russia was very clear — they don’t know anything about the energy ceasefire,” he added.

Published – October 13, 2026 01:06 pm IST

The U.S. Senate, in a show of bipartisanship, has voted overwhelmingly to fast-track a bill that would allow U.S. President Donald Trump to impose sanctions on major buyers of oil from Russia and Iran, which would affect countries such as India and China.

The Senate voted 86-12 on Tuesday (July 28, 2026) to invoke the cloture motion to advance the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026, hours after they gathered to bid a final farewell to the Senator from South Carolina, who passed away on July 11.

Cloture is a formal procedure of the Senate to set a time limit for the debate and related actions on an issue before it is put to a final vote.

Senators voted on the cloture motion after a meeting with visiting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who was in Washington D.C. for the funeral service of the late Lindsey Graham.

Mr. Zelenskyy was in the Senate gallery, waving and smiling at the Senators as they lined up to cast their votes.

Graham, a Republican, and Democratic Senator Richard Blumenthal had worked on the Russia sanctions bill for more than a year. Iran was added to the bill at the instance of Mr. Trump.

“The Lindsey Graham sanctions bill will advance the cause of freedom, and it will combat Vladimir Putin’s war machine,” Senator Roger Wicker, Republican from Mississippi and the chairman of the Armed Services Committee, said before the vote.

Mr. Blumenthal said the bill also empowers the president to impose tariffs up to 100 per cent on the five largest purchasers of Russian oil and gas.

“It is carefully crafted to make sure we are not hitting our allies and that we are hitting China and India. Let’s be really blunt. China and India are the main culprits here. They purchase the vast majority of oil and gas, they are fuelling Russia’s war machine and they are doing us no favours anywhere else in the world,” Mr. Blumenthal said.

The bill, which has 62 co-sponsors, is widely expected to pass in the 100-member Senate. However, the bill may run into some resistance in the House, where Democrats are not keen to expand Trump’s tariff authority.

“It is extremely dangerous to give Trump massive new tariff powers, particularly after we’ve seen the disastrous impacts of his corrupt, chaotic, and inflationary tariff spree,” House Ways and Means ranking member Richard Neal and Senate Finance ranking member Ron Wyden said in a statement.

The bipartisan group of Senators said they were proud to announce an agreement on legislation to stop purchasers of Russian oil and gas from fuelling Putin’s war machine and to continue restricting the Iranian regime’s ability to support terrorism and build its nuclear programme.

The Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 would impose primary and secondary sanctions against Russia and actors supporting its war in Ukraine.

The sanctions target Russian officials, oligarchs, their family members, foreign persons and Russian banks and financial institutions, as well as the Russian Shadow Fleet.

The legislation allows the president to impose targeted tariffs on imported goods from countries that buy the vast majority of Russian oil or gas and enable Russian sanctions evasion.

Section 113 of the bill specifically targets the five countries that purchase the largest volumes of Russian fuel or facilitate sanctions evasion through shadow fleets, threatening them with additional 100 per cent tariffs.

Apart from China and India, the other top purchasers of Russian oil are Slovakia, Hungary and Azerbaijan.

The bill calls for the U.S. Trade Representative to reassess the top five purchasers every 180 days to adjust tariff rates based on changes in purchasing behaviour.

Regarding Iran, the legislation extends the Iran Sanctions Act for an additional five years, keeping critical secondary restrictions in place until 2031.

Furthermore, a legislative provision limits the new tariff authority to a five-year sunset period. This ensures the powers do not become a permanent fixture of US trade policy without further renewal.

Published – July 29, 2026 12:36 pm IST

The story so far: On August 6, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a whopping 25% penalty tariff on Indian goods for India’s import of Russian oil. This was on top of the 25% reciprocal tariffs announced on July 31 after Indian and U.S. negotiators failed to reach a Free Trade Agreement (FTA).

Also Read | ‘Not until we get it resolved’: Trump indicates pause in trade talks over Russian oil imports

How has India responded to the tariffs?

India has so far not announced any overt action against the U.S. for its tariffs. The 25% reciprocal tariffs went into effect on August 7, and the impact will unfold in the upcoming weeks. Already, reports suggest garment exporters are facing trouble with U.S. importers suspending orders, given that U.S. tariffs on Asian competitors in Vietnam, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka are much lower. Mr. Trump’s penalty tariffs, meanwhile, will go into effect on August 27, and New Delhi is hopeful that there will be some change in position.

As a result, India’s response has been carried in three statements. On August 4, the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) issued a release criticising both the U.S. and the European Union for “targeting” India over Russian oil imports, pointing out that they both continue to trade with Russia. While the U.S. procures critical minerals, chemicals and nuclear trade components, the EU countries continue to buy oil and LNG from Russia. On August 6, the MEA called the U.S. actions “extremely unfortunate” and “unfair, unjustified and unreasonable”, vowing to protect India’s national interests. On August 7, Prime Minister Modi said that he was ready to pay a price “personally” to protect the interests of India’s farmers, fishermen and livestock, and dairy keepers. This was an indication that India-U.S. trade talks had broken down over market access to the agricultural sector. Between giving in on market access or giving up Russian oil, India appears to be facing two ‘impossible’ choices.

Also Read | Modi, Putin discuss Ukraine amid Trump tariff row

Can the tariffs be stopped?

Mr. Trump has announced that he will meet Russian President Vladimir Putin on August 15 in Alaska, which incidentally will be the first Putin trip to the U.S. since 2015 when he travelled to the UN for a summit. According to reports, Mr. Putin has offered to stop the war in exchange for keeping territories the Russian forces control, but it is unclear if this would be acceptable to Ukraine and European countries. If there is a deal, India may receive a roll back of the Russian oil penalties, and the MEA issued a statement Saturday welcoming and “endorsing” plans for the Trump-Putin Summit. In his executive order of August 6, Mr. Trump has given himself “modification authority”, if Russia were to “take significant steps” to end the Ukraine war and security threats to the U.S.

In addition, a U.S. team of FTA negotiators are scheduled to visit Delhi on August 25. If India makes certain concessions on trade and market access, a mini-trade deal could go a long way in reducing the U.S. tariffs.

How much Russian oil does India procure?

Prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, India imported very little oil from Russia. Ural oil, considered “heavy” crude and priced too high as Russia had European buyers, consisted only 1% of India’s basket of sellers. After the EU began to sanction Russia, and committed to zeroing out all energy purchases from Russia, the price of Ural dropped, and India, as well as China and others, began to pick up more Russian oil.

By May 2023, India was importing two million plus barrels of Russian crude per day (bpd), making up between 35-40% of India’s basket. Russia has been its largest supplier since. However, India-Russia energy ties go beyond this trade. After the Modi-Putin summit in Sochi in May 2018, and Mr. Putin’s visit to India for the annual summit that year, the India-Russia joint statement recorded investments of over $5 billion by an Indian consortium of PSUs in Vankorneft and Taas-Yuryakh Neftegazodobycha in Russia. Russian oil major Rosneft picked up a 49% stake in Essar Oil for $12.9 billion. The new entity was renamed Nayara Energy, and it included Essar’s Vadinar refinery in Gujarat — 49% stake went to a consortium, and Essar retained 2%. Vadinar refinery, along with other private refiners like Reliance, began to reprocess Russian oil and export it to other countries over the next few years. Mr. Trump called this, “selling it on the open markets for big profits”. None of this violated any sanctions, and despite requests from Western countries, the government continued to purchase oil from Russia, saving India about $13 billion by 2024 and a further $3.8 billion in 2025, according to estimates by the ICRA.

Experts say it will be difficult for the government to give in to U.S. pressure this time, economically as well as politically and diplomatically. The Indian government would lose face domestically, and risk damaging ties with an all-important friend, Russia. For the moment, Kpler reports that the price of Ural has dropped after demand has reduced from Indian companies, but experts say it is unlikely to completely stop Russian imports, even as India broadens its non-Russian intake through the U.S., Iraq, Kuwait, UAE and Saudi Arabia.

Also Read | MEA’s latest statement indicates India may change tack to face U.S. tariffs, E.U. sanctions over Russian oil

What happened with oil imports from Iran?

India’s refusal to stop importing Russian oil was a shift from 2018, when Mr. Trump had demanded India’s compliance in “zeroing out” oil from Iran and Venezuela. After initially maintaining that India would not bow to such diktats, the government caved in by May 2019, and stopped all its direct oil purchases from both Iran and Venezuela, incurring heavy losses, as the oil was both “sweet” for its refineries and priced competitively.

What does this mean for foreign policy?

Since 1999, after the U.S. placed sanctions on India for nuclear tests, Delhi and Washington have worked tirelessly to change relations between them. They have built trust for a quarter of a century through a civil nuclear deal, military and defence cooperation, counter-terror cooperation, technology partnerships and the Quad grouping in the Indo-Pacific. Experts in both countries say that besides hurting Indian trade, Mr. Trump’s actions will damage the India-U.S. relationship in several other areas. At the same time, Delhi’s moves to shore up strategic autonomy and independence are significant. National Security Adviser Ajit Doval travelled to Moscow last week to prepare for Mr. Putin’s visit to India, and External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar is expected to follow later in the month.

Mr. Modi will travel to Japan and then to China for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit and a bilateral meeting with President Xi Jinping, on his first such visit since the 2020 LAC (Line of Actual Control) military clashes. Moreover, Delhi is due to host the Quad summit this November, and much will depend on whether Mr. Modi and Mr. Trump can restore ties by then.

Published – August 10, 2025 03:35 am IST

Prime Minister Narendra Modi and U.S. President Donald Trump at a joint press conference in Washington. File
| Photo Credit: PTI