The prevailing low global oil prices mean that, if India chooses to shift away from importing Russian oil and switches to more oil from the U.S., the financial impact of this would be limited, according to experts as well an analysis of India’s import data.

An analysis byThe Hindu of the volume and value of India’s oil imports show that in November 2025, the latest month for which there is data, India imported oil from Russia at the rate of $482.7 per tonne. That month, oil imports from the U.S. cost $523.3 per tonne. On average, India paid $498.8 per tonne for its oil imports in November 2025.

In other words, in November 2025, India received an average discount of $16.1 per tonne from Russia, while it bought oil at an average premium of $24.6 per tonne from the U.S.

Declining discount

Data shows that, while the premium paid on oil from the U.S. has remained largely the same as three years ago, the discount received from Russia has shrunk considerably.

Three years earlier, in November 2022, India received a discount of $40.3 a tonne on its oil imports from Russia. The premium paid on American oil stood at $21.2 per tonne.

“India was very keen to keep importing from Russia at a discounted rate while a discount existed,” Vibhuti Garg, Director for South Asia at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, said. “But that discount has now gone and global oil prices have fallen significantly. They are at about $60 a barrel and could fall further. So, if India does cut down on its Russian oil imports significantly, this won’t currently be damaging fiscally.

However, she added that, if in the future prices go back up to $80-90 a barrel, then the lack of this Russian discount could start pinching the Indian government.

A previous report by The Hindu shows how India’s oil imports from Russia touched a six-month high in November 2025. However, since then, Reliance Industries, one of the biggest oil importers in India, said that it had not received any oil shipments from Russia in the last three weeks of December 2025 and did not expect any in January 2026.

Limited impact

According to Ajay Srivastava, founder of think-tank Global Trade Research Initiative and former Director General of Foreign Trade in the Government of India, the premium paid to the U.S. also reflects the superior quality of the oil supplied by it.

“Until 2023-24, Russian oil was about 20% cheaper than what we could get in the market,” Mr. Srivastava said. “That price differential has evaporated since then. There is also a quality difference between the oil that we get from Russia and the US. Russian oil is largely heavy crude, with a higher sulfur content, which is considered lower quality, while the US crude is lighter and of better quality.”

He added that reducing oil imports from Russia would not have any financial impact on India.

“While strategic concerns are different, economically it will not make much of a difference,” Mr. Srivastava said.

Other risks arise

Puneet Kumar, Partner, Energy Sector at EY-Parthenon India said that, with about 35% of India’s oil imports originating in Russia, there is a risk to India from cutting down on Russian oil. But he, too, acknowledged that this risk is currently likely to be offset due to the low oil global oil prices.

However, he pointed out other factors that could put a strain on India’s finances if they persist. 

“These gains would be partially negated by other economic factors, including recent depreciation of the Indian rupee (around 5% this year) and increased logistics cost from U.S.,” Mr. Kumar said.

India is implementing a larger strategy to reduce its dependence on oil imports from Russia, with the higher tariffs imposed by the U.S. coming at a time when India was already cutting its Russian oil imports, according to an analysis of official data. This has also been confirmed by government officials.

An analysis by The Hindu of government trade data shows India’s oil imports from Russia in September 2025 — the first full month during which the U.S.’ 50% tariffs on Indian imports were applicable — were 29% lower in terms of value and 17% lower in terms of volume than in September 2024.

However, the data shows that this is part of a longer strategy rather than a reaction to the tariffs — 25% of which had been imposed as a ‘penalty’ for importing Russian oil.

Longer strategy

The Russian oil-related 25% additional tariff by the U.S. on Indian imports came into effect on August 27. However, India has cut the value of Russian oil imports in eight out of the previous 10 months up to September 2025, the latest month for which there is official data. In five of these months — February, May, June, July, and September — the cuts were by more than 20% each. 

“India has known for a while now that its dependence on Russian oil imports had grown too high and so it was already working on a plan to reduce this,” an official in the Ministry of Commerce and Industry told The Hindu on the condition of anonymity given the sensitivity of the issue. 

“The Trump tariffs have come during that time,” the official said. “Yes, they are a factor to be kept in mind, but they are not driving Indian policies.”

Several Indian Ministers, including External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar, Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal, and Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman have asserted that India will make its energy import decisions as per its needs and best interests, and not under duress.

Declining share

The reduction of Russian oil is not just in absolute terms, but also in terms of its share in India’s total oil imports. 

Russian oil accounted for about 41% of India’s total oil imports in September 2024, which came down to 31% by September 2025. However, rather than a one-off, the data confirms this is part of a longer process.

Russia’s share in India’s oil imports grew from 1.6% in 2020-21, to 2% in 2021-22, before jumping to 19% in 2022-23, 33.4% in 2023-24, and 35.1% in 2024-25. 

The first six months of 2025-26 have, however, snapped this four-year increasing trend, with Russia’s share falling to 32.3% in the April-September 2025 period.

Diversified imports

Russia’s war in Ukraine, the resultant sanctions on it by the U.S. and Europe, and the discounts it provided India resulted in a significant shift in India’s oil import basket for a few years after the war started, with an increasing dependence on Russia. 

Some of that is now reversing itself as India once again has started shifting away from Russian oil.

In 2021-22, the US accounted for 9.2% of India’s oil imports and the UAE accounted for 12.4%. This was when Russia still only accounted for 2% of India’s oil imports. 

By 2024-25, Russia accounted for 35.1% of India’s oil, while the shares of the US and the UAE had fallen to 4.6% and 9.7%, respectively. 

In the first six months of 2025-26, the US’ share has once again increased to 8% and that of the UAE to 11.7%, even as Russia’s share has fallen.