Pedestrians walk on a road amid heavy monsoon rains in Navi Mumbai, July 13, 2024.
| Photo Credit: PTI

We are in the middle of the monsoon season of 2024. The monsoon onset happened on time on May 30 but its evolution thus far has sprung some surprises. The distribution of rainfall looks as patchy as ever, albeit with some unexpected patterns. The seasonal outlook by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted a normal to above-normal amount of rainfall based on the expectation that a La Niña appears to be likely. But this La Niña appears to be playing truant so far.

After the on-time onset, the northward movement of the monsoon trough seemed to be quite rapid. But then the trough stalled and produced a fairly dry June for large swaths of the country. Even the entire stretch of the Western Ghats received below-normal rainfall levels into July. An unusual pattern of excess rain stretching from south to north persists to this day, with dry patches over large parts of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, and Odisha, as well as northwestern India into Jammu & Kashmir.

A useful index with disclaimers

I have used this analogy before and it still works well. As the Sun crosses into the Northern Hemisphere and starts warming the Indian subcontinent like a popcorn kettle, monsoon systems pop like kernels of corn in the kettle. The temperature inside the kettle will be essentially uniform but kernels will still pop randomly, here and there.

These kernels are like the rainfall: its patchy pattern is visible on day-to-day data as well as data averaged over the whole season and even over a whole decade.

However, the convenience of using the ‘all India monsoon rainfall’ index for providing seasonal outlooks — as the IMD does — is undermined by the uncertainty India’s farmers face at the local levels. Our forecasts of rain days or weeks ahead of a given date are getting better but they concomitantly increase the demand for and value of even more accurate and hyperlocal forecasts.

This demand is not only from farmers but also water managers and energy companies, among others. We need a broader perspective of the monsoon circulation to help understand where the limitations exist and how they can be resolved.

The circulation beyond India

People know the summer monsoon as the “southwest monsoon” because the winds sweep in from the southwest over the Arabian Sea into mainland India, across the Western Ghats. The western edge of the winds graze the African highlands, and some experts have often argued that they are critical for steering the southwesterly winds. The active Bay of Bengal, which is full of convective events, can be expected to ‘pull’ the winds towards India as well.

Convection in the atmosphere refers to rain events that release condensation heat.

The heating over West Asia and even the dust from the deserts there contribute to the monsoon circulation and its variability, as well as the changes it is experiencing due to global warming. Pakistan is very much a part of the monsoon circulation and it experiences high rainfall variability. This is because the edges of the monsoon circulation tend to be highly variable.

The land encompassed by the Himalayan foothills, and thus Nepal and Bhutan as well as the eastern edge of the Bay of Bengal (including Myanmar), is also involved in regulating the monsoon and the transfer of its heat to the Indian subcontinent. Bangladesh is of course ensconced between Northeast India and mainland India. We don’t pay attention to the role of heating over Bangladesh or the ocean-land-atmosphere dynamics that creates the beautiful monsoon and its heartbreaking vagaries every year.

The heating centres over the subcontinent are very strong and they maintain a sustained demand for moisture to sustain the convection centers. Indeed, the circulation that sweeps the oceans and the subcontinent can’t be represented accurately in rainfall models unless we capture all the heating centres from Pakistan and West Asia in the west to Myanmar in the east, and the Indian Ocean from about 10º south to its northern edge against the subcontinent.

Detail gaps beyond India’s borders

As hard as the IMD and its labs are working to improve their monsoon forecasting abilities at all timescales, their efforts are also undermined by a lack of rainfall and other weather data over parts of the subcontinent beyond India. Satellites can help to some extent but the amount of data available in near real-time to initiate forecasts is often quite inadequate.

These rainfall models are global for most subcontinent-scale forecasts even though the IMD also develops regional model forecasts, at the levels of cities, and at the national scale. The global models ingest data about the oceans and the planetary atmosphere to initiate forecasts and the volume of data can appear to be large and adequate — but this is often not the case.

Monitoring the whole subcontinent

India has been fortunate enough to have a rainfall monitoring network since the 19th century, and the advantages are now bearing fruit with investments in forecasting infrastructure. At this point, we need a few important steps to reach the next level in forecast accuracy. This is also essential to sustain continuous economic growth for India, especially in terms of food, water, and energy security.

In fact, even our national security depends heavily on weather and climate forecasts — for India as well as for the country’s more climate-vulnerable neighbors. Debilitating natural disasters can quickly turn into national security concerns, especially with some neighbors having to seek aid from non-allies.

India does share its forecasts with some countries but it may benefit more by extending this strategy to also establish a broad network to monitor weather and climate across the subcontinent. Improved forecasts for the subcontinent will make everybody safe and less vulnerable. This can only mean better opportunities for safety for all, including food, water, and energy, as well as better health.

Raghu Murtugudde is a professor, IIT Bombay, and emeritus professor, University of Maryland.

Dehradun:

The ongoing Char Dham Yatra in Uttarakhand will remain suspended on Sunday due to the heavy rain alert issued by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) for July 7-8.

Garhwal Divisional Commissioner Vinay Shankar Pandey issued an order in this regard late Saturday and urged pilgrims en route to the temples to avoid proceeding further and stay where they are.

He appealed to pilgrims not to travel beyond Rishikesh in view of the weather department’s heavy rain forecast and landslides on various routes.

Pilgrims have been advised to proceed further only when the weather is clear.

The IMD on Saturday issued an alert for heavy to very heavy rainfall in all the districts of Uttarakhand on Sunday and Monday.

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

New Delhi:

The national capital recorded a maximum temperature of 37.1 degrees Celsius on Sunday, a couple of days after Delhi was lashed by 228.1 mm of rains, bringing the city to its knees and claiming multiple lives.

According to the weather department, 9 mm of rain was recorded in the city on Sunday, while humidity was 60 per cent at 5.30 pm.

The India Meteorological Department has predicted overcast conditions and heavy rain on Monday and Tuesday. It also said that heavy rains at isolated places in Delhi and adjoining states are very likely till July 4.

The weather department has predicted moderate rain and thunderstorm accompanied with gusty winds on Sunday night.

The Air Quality Index (AQI) of the national capital was in the “moderate” category with a reading of 118 at 6 pm, according to the Central Pollution Control Board.

An AQI between zero and 50 is considered “good”, 51 and 100 “satisfactory”, 101 and 200 “moderate”, 201 and 300 “poor”, 301 and 400 “very poor”, and 401 and 500 “severe”. 

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

New Delhi:

The India Meteorological Department on Monday informed that Cyclone Remal over Coastal Bangladesh and adjoining Coastal West Bengal moved nearly northwards, with a speed of 15 kilometres per hour.

“The Cyclonic Storm ‘Remal’ over Coastal Bangladesh and adjoining Coastal West Bengal moved nearly northwards, with a speed of 15 kmph during the past 6 hours and lay centred at 08:30 hrs IST of today over the same region,” IMD posted on X.

According to the IMD, the severe cyclonic storm Remal has weakened into a cyclonic storm in the early hours of Monday and is expected to gradually weaken further.

“Severe Cyclonic Storm Remal over Coastal Bangladesh and adjoining Coastal West Bengal weakened into Cyclonic Storm at 0530hrs of the 27 May about 70km northeast of Canning and 30km west-southwest of Mongla. The system is likely to gradually weaken further,” IMD posted on X earlier.

Following the weakening of cyclone Remal, the flight operations resumed at Netaji Subhas Chandra Bose International Airport, Kolkata.

“Flight operations resumed at Netaji Subhas Chandra Bose International Airport, Kolkata at 0859 hrs, after it was closed for flight operation yesterday in view of the #CycloneRemal,” the official X handle of Kolkata Airport posted.

A passenger Debali Datta said, “I had my flight yesterday which got delayed. The airport authority informed me that it will depart today. This is because of the cyclone. Since we got to know beforehand, it did not create a lot of trouble for us.”

West Bengal Governor CV Ananda Bose with the Raj Bhavan task force also went on a field visit after cyclone Remal made landfall yesterday night.

“Raj Bhavan task force has just returned from the field visit. We are all greatly relieved that no reported casualty is there. Remal cyclone is weakening and the people of Bengal have been able to brave it with fortitude and courage. We are watching in case there is any need for any help. Raj Bhavan task force is ready. I thank the entire people of West Bengal for the solidarity which they have expressed,” Bose said.

Following the landfall of cyclonic storm ‘Remal’, waterlogging has been witnessed in parts of Kolkata with heavy rain.

Several trees were also uprooted in Kolkata’s Alipore area as heavy rain and gusty winds lashed several parts of West Bengal.

The IMD earlier informed that the storm ‘Remal’ would continue to move nearly northwards for some more time and then north-northeastwards and weaken gradually into a Cyclonic Storm.

The cyclone moved northwards and crossed the Bangladesh and adjoining West Bengal Coasts between Sagar Islands and Khepupara close to southwest of Mongla, said IMD.

“The Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘Remal’ over the North Bay of Bengal moved nearly northwards, with a speed of 13 kmph during past 06 hours, crossed Bangladesh and adjoining West Bengal Coasts between Sagar Islands and Khepupara close to southwest of Mongla near Latitude 21.75N and Longitude 89.2E between 22:30 hrs IST of 26th May to 00:30 hrs IST of 27th May 2024 as a Severe Cyclonic Storm with wind speed of 110 to 120 Kmph gusting to 135 Kmph,” said IMD in a post on X.

“It lay centred at 01:30 hrs IST of today, the 27th May, 2024 over Coastal Bangladesh and adjoining Coastal West Bengal, near latitude 21.9N and longitude 89,2E about 115 km east of Sagar Islands (West Bengal), 105 km west-southwest of Khepupara (Bangladesh), 70 km southeast of Canning (West Bengal) and SO km south-southwest of Mongla (Bangladesh), The system would continue to move nearly northwards for some more time and then north-northeastwards and weaken gradually into a Cyclonic Storm by morning of 27,” added the post.

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

Barmer:

The scorching heat continues in most parts of Rajasthan, and now even the nights are getting hotter. Due to the heatwave and scorching heat conditions on Friday, it became difficult for people to come out of their homes.

Thursday was the hottest day of this season in Barmer. To provide relief from the heat, water is being sprinkled on the streets and roads.

On Thursday, the maximum temperature in Barmer increased by 0.8 degrees, reaching 48.8 degrees Celsius, and the minimum temperature decreased by 0.4 degrees, reaching 32.2 degrees Celsius.

On Friday, the maximum temperature reached 48.8 degrees Celsius in Barmer. A red alert was issued in most of the districts of Rajasthan, with temperatures expected to increase by two degrees Celsius from May 25 to 27.

Barmer district collector Nishant Jain said that the leaves of Health, PHED (Public Health and Engineering Department), Discom officials, and administrative officers have been cancelled till further orders.

“In view of the heat, the health department is keeping a vigil on reserve beds and essential medicines. These officers are also going and checking whether all the facilities are available or not,” Jain said.

He added further, “Efforts are being made by the administration to provide relief to the people. My appeal to people would be to go out of the house only if necessary, especially in the afternoon.”

A resident, Ramesh, while speaking with ANI, said, “The temperatures are reaching 46-47 degrees Celsius. It’s becoming very difficult for us. I would urge people to plant trees so that next year, we don’t have to bear such rising temperatures in Barmer.”

Meanwhile, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday issued a heatwave alert. “Heatwave to severe heatwave conditions very likely in many parts of Punjab, Rajasthan, Haryana-Chandigarh-Delhi, few parts of West Uttar Pradesh and heatwave conditions very likely in isolated pockets of Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, East Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha on May 27 and 28, 2024,” IMD said in a post on X.

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

New Delhi:

An intense heatwave prevailing over eastern and southern peninsular India is set to subside soon. While the eastern region may get relief by today, the southern states may have to wait for another day, according to a forecast by the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

A wet spell accompanied by thunderstorms and gusty winds is also likely over these regions till May 10, the weather office said.

Temperatures have been soaring above 40 degrees every day with a severe heatwave sweeping across these two regions since last month. On the last day of April, Kolkata recorded its highest temperature in 50 years at 43 degrees.

As the East and the South gets a relief, a fresh heatwave spell is likely to sweep over western India, covering Gujarat, Rajasthan and western Madhya Pradesh during the next five days.

In the Northeast, rainfall and thunderstorms are likely to continue till tomorrow.

The Khasi-Jaintia Hills region in Meghalaya has been receiving heavy rains since yesterday. Several houses were damaged and over 400 people were affected by the rains. It will continue for another 48 hours, the IMD said.

New Delhi:

India is set to experience extreme heat during the April to June period, with the central and western peninsular parts expected to face the worst impact, the IMD said on Monday as the country prepares for seven-phase general elections from April 19.

India Meteorological Department (IMD) Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said above-normal maximum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country during the April-June period, with a high probability over central and western peninsular India.

Normal to below-normal maximum temperatures are likely over some parts of the western Himalayan region, northeastern states and north Odisha, he said.

Above-normal heatwave days are likely over most parts in the plains during this period. Ten to 20 days of heat waves are expected in different parts of the country against a normal of four to eight days, he said.

Gujarat, central Maharashtra, north Karnataka, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Odisha, north Chhattisgarh and Andhra Pradesh are likely to experience the worst impact of heat waves, Mohapatra said.

Above-normal maximum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country in April, with a high probability over central south India.

Normal to below-normal maximum temperatures are likely over some parts of the western Himalayan region and the northeastern states in April, the IMD said.

Above-normal heatwave days are likely over many areas in central India and the adjoining areas of the northern plains and south India in April, the weather office said.

Two to eight days of heat wave are expected in these regions against a normal of one to three days, according to Mohapatra.

Gujarat, Maharashtra, north Karnataka, Odisha, west Madhya Pradesh and Andhra Pradesh are predicted to experience the worst impact of heat waves in April.

Lok Sabha polls in India will take place in seven phases between April 19 and June 1. 

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

Representational image only.
| Photo Credit: AP

The deep depression formed over the Bay of Bengal may intensify into a cyclone by Monday evening (October 23), the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in a bulletin. The cyclonic storm, after its formation, will be called ‘Hamoon‘, a name given by Iran.

The system is currently located in west-central Bay of Bengal after moving northeastwards on Sunday night. It lies centred around 400 km from Odisha’s Paradip and 550 km south-southwest of Digha in West Bengal.

“It is likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm over the next 12 hours. It is very likely to move north-northeastwards and cross the Bangladesh coast between Khepupara and Chittagong around October 25 evening as a deep depression,” the IMD’s morning bulletin said.

Meanwhile, the Odisha government has asked all the district Collectors to remain prepared for any eventuality and directed the administration to evacuate people from low-lying areas in the event of heavy rain.

“The system (cyclone) will move in the sea around 200 km from Odisha coast,” weather scientist U.S. Dash said, adding that under its influence, light to moderate rainfall is likely at a few places in coastal Odisha on Monday and at many places over the next two days.

The Weather Department said that light to moderate rainfall would occur at a few places in northern and southern coastal districts, besides Keonjhar, Mayurbhanj and Dhenkanal. The Fisheries and Animal Resources Development Department has advised fishermen not to venture into deep seas.

Keeping in view of the weather conditions, Durga puja organisers are preparing for possible rain and wind during the festivities.