World Bank ups India’s GDP growth projection to 7.1% for FY27

admin — Tue, 06 Oct 2026 15:13:00 +0000

“We have upgraded our FY27 growth forecast to 7.1% from 6.6% in April, as growth has held up better than expected despite trade and geopolitical uncertainties,” the World Bank said in its latest India Development Update. File

The World Bank on Tuesday (October 6, 2026) raised India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecast for the current fiscal to 7.1%, up 0.5 percentage points from its April projections, driven by better-than-expected print for the first quarter.

India’s growth accelerated to 7.8% in FY26 from 7.2% in FY25, driven by strong investment and solid private consumption, as the favourable policy and credit environment outweighed trade tensions.

“Rural consumption initially outpaced urban demand supported by strong agricultural performance, rural income support, food subsidies, and low inflation, while urban consumption strengthened later in the year following income-tax relief and GST cuts,” it said.

“The momentum has carried into FY27, with GDP growing 7.8% in Q1, above expectations, before moderating in subsequent quarters,” it said.

“Private consumption is expected to remain the main driver of growth although a rainfall deficit through August is likely to weigh modestly on rural demand, while subdued government consumption will stay muted,” it said.

“The investment outlook is broadly unchanged, with heightened global uncertainty weighing on private investment as frontloading fades, partly offset by supportive financial and policy conditions, including stronger public investment,” it said.

“India’s exports have performed better than expected and are likely to provide the main upside to the FY27 growth outlook relative to the April forecasts,” it said.

On the supply side, it said, the industry is now forecast to perform better than initially expected and offset a weaker agricultural outlook. Since April, industrial activity has exceeded expectations despite global headwinds.

This partially reflects the stronger-than-expected front-loading earlier in the year, with infrastructure and construction goods growth accelerating to 7.2% in Q1 from 6.1% last year, as well as the higher summer utility demand, which drove the electricity sector to expand by 9.3% in Q1 compared to a 1.5% contraction last year.

“Although above-average rainfall since July narrowed the monsoon deficit, the overall rainfall shortage during southwest monsoon has weakened agricultural prospects,” it said.

The World Bank also said the services sector growth remained elevated despite a slowdown from the high base in FY26.

Published – October 06, 2026 08:43 pm IST

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RBI’s MPC keeps policy rate unchanged, CPI inflation projection for FY24 revised to 5.4%

admin — Thu, 10 Aug 2023 04:56:45 +0000

The Monetary Policy Committee has unanimously decided to keep the policy repo rate unchanged, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said in Mumbai on August 10, 2023.
| Photo Credit: Emmanual Yogini

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India on August 10 decided unanimously to keep the policy repo rate unchanged at 6.50%.

Consequently, the standing deposit facility (SDF) rate remains at 6.25% and the marginal standing facility (MSF) rate and the Bank Rate at 6.75%.

The MPC also decided by a majority of 5 out of 6 members to remain focused on withdrawal of accommodation to ensure that inflation progressively aligns with the target, while supporting growth.

Explaining the MPC’s rationale for these decisions on the policy rate and the stance, RBI governor Shaktikanta Das in his statement said, “Headline inflation, after reaching a low of 4.3% in May 2023, rose in June and is expected to surge during July-August led by vegetable prices.”

“While the vegetable price shock may reverse quickly, possible El Niño weather conditions along with global food prices need to be watched closely against the backdrop of a skewed south-west monsoon so far. These developments warrant a heightened vigil on the evolving inflation trajectory,” he said.

“The cumulative rate hike of 250 basis points undertaken by the MPC is working its way into the economy. Nonetheless, domestic economic activity is holding up well and is likely to retain its momentum, despite weak external demand. Considering this confluence of factors, the MPC decided to remain watchful and evaluate the emerging situation,” he added.

Consequently, the MPC decided to keep the policy repo rate unchanged at 6.50% with preparedness to act, should the situation so warrant, Mr. Das said.

He said the MPC remained resolute in its commitment to aligning inflation to the 4 per cent target and anchoring inflation expectations.

Taking all various factors into consideration, the Governor said the real GDP growth for 2023-24 is projected at 6.5% with Q1 at 8.0%; Q2 at 6.5%; Q3 at 6.0%; and Q4 at 5.7%. Real GDP growth for Q1:2024-25 is projected at 6.6%. The risks are evenly balanced.

Given the continuing external uncertainties, the latest CPI inflation projection for 2023-24, assuming a normal monsoon, has been revised to 5.4%, with Q2 at 6.2%, Q3 at 5.7% and Q4 at 5.2%. CPI inflation for Q1:2024-25 is projected at 5.2%. The risks are evenly balanced.

The Governor said considering the difficulties in major economies, the Indian economy is better placed. “India can become the new growth engine of the world,” he said.

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India GDP projection – Artifex.News

World Bank ups India’s GDP growth projection to 7.1% for FY27

RBI’s MPC keeps policy rate unchanged, CPI inflation projection for FY24 revised to 5.4%