Overall goods exports are now estimated to be 1.6% higher through the April to December 2024 period at $321.7 billion, while imports have risen 5.15% to $532.5 billion. Image for representation.
| Photo Credit: The Hindu

India’s goods exports contracted 1% year-on-year in December to a fraction over $38 billion, while imports grew 4.9% to almost $60 billion, but this narrowed the merchandise trade deficit to a three-month low of $21.9 billion, reflecting a sharp moderation from November’s record gap of $31.8 billion.

Gold imports which were feared to have spiked to a fresh high of $14.9 billion in November, before the Centre corrected that tally by $5 billion last week to $9.9 billion citing an erroneous ‘double count’, more than halved sequentially in December to $4.7 billion. However, this still marked a significant 55.4% increase over the yellow metal’s December 2023 imports.

Commerce Secretary Sunil Barthwal sought to play down concerns about the export blip, saying that shipment values have grown in every quarter through the first nine months of this financial year. This shows that they have not only been resilient during a challenging year but also more consistent, he said. Officials also stressed that December’s export tally marked only the third occasion in 2024-25 that outbound shipments’ value has crossed the $38 billion mark.

Petrol prices crash

Overall goods exports are now estimated to be 1.6% higher through the April to December 2024 period at $321.7 billion, while imports have risen 5.15% to $532.5 billion. On a year-on-year basis, December’s trade deficit was 17% higher, while the total deficit through the year is up 11.1% at $210.8 billion.

Petroleum imports rose 2.2% to $15.3 billion last month, but petroleum product exports tanked a sharp 28.6%, to just $4.9 billion. Through April to December 2024, exports of petro products were 20.84% lower at a little over $49 billion, while imports rose 6.4% to $138.31 billion.

Mr. Barthwal noted that this is largely owing to a 20% decline in petroleum prices over this period, pointing out that non-petroleum exports have been rising consistently. Excluding petroleum trade, India’s exports were up 5.05% in December, and 7.05% higher through the April to December 2024 period, officials pointed out.

‘Urgent help needed in Budget’

Exporters were not as sanguine, even though they attributed part of December’s export dip to volatile commodity and metal prices, as well as currency fluctuations and logistical challenges affecting export flows to key markets like Europe, Africa, and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).

Federation of Indian Exporters’ Organisation (FIEO) president Ashwani Kumar called for “urgent” measures in the upcoming Union Budget to boost manufacturing and labour-intensive sectors, and resolve the trade finance issues that particularly dent micro, small and medium enterprises’ competitiveness.

A tariff war by the incoming U.S. administration could throw up new opportunities for India, Mr. Kumar noted, mooting the need for a focused export strategy for key markets like the U.S., the continuation of measures like the Interest Equalisation Scheme, and a resolution of GST-related export challenges to ensure sustained growth.

 India’s total exports, including services, is expected to cross the $800 billion mark this year.
| Photo Credit: VIPIN CHANDRAN

India’s goods exports jumped 17.25% to $39.2 billion in October, marking the best month in recent times, even as the import bill surged to a fresh record high of $66.34 billion, 3.9% over the same month last year.

Between April and October, India’s non-petroleum exports have surged to the highest ever tally of $211.3 billion and if this trend continues, India’s total exports, including services, will cross the $800 billion mark this year to set a new record, Commerce Secretary Sunil Barthwal said.

The merchandise trade deficit has widened from a five-month low of $20.8 billion in September to $27.14 billion in October.

“Our strategy of focusing on certain sectors and countries is now yielding results and our manufacturing competitiveness has gained with schemes like the Production Linked Incentives, and our approach to industrial policy, trade policy and foreign policy,” Mr. Barthwal said.

“If you look at the UNCTAD and the World Trade Organisation (WTO) projections for this year, they are very pessimistic. But despite the global situation being highly volatile, growth in the Western countries slowing with some recessionary trends, and the disruptions in global trade routes, our exporters have been able to do well in several sectors,” he emphasised, citing healthy double-digit growth in engineering goods, chemicals, electronics, rice, and labour-intensive sectors like readymade garments and textiles.

“A key factor for the 17%-plus growth in exports could be improved demand for this Christmas from developed markets as firms start stocking up inventories for the festival. This demand seems far better than last year and gives us confidence that the coming months will also see a healthy uptick,” the top trade official said.