Union Minister of Commerce and Industry Piyush Goyal. File
| Photo Credit: PTI

We are very confident that the Indian economy is poised for both healthy and organised growth and providing opportunities to lakhs of people across India, Union Minister Piyush Goyal said

Healthy increase in the country’s exports, improvement in the current account deficit (CAD) and focus on expanding manufacturing will help the Indian economy register a healthy growth rate, Union Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal has said. He was here to participate in a programme of the gems and jewellery industry.

The Minister expressed confidence that India’s goods and services exports would cross $800 billion this fiscal. It was $778 billion in 2023-24 and USD 776 billion in 2022-23.

Mr. Goyal said that the mood amongst industry and exporters is “wonderful” and a “very great” sense of confidence is there among the investors about the India growth story.

“I think this year we will end with over $800 billion exports…We also focus a lot on expanding our manufacturing capacities, so that our import dependencies can come down and CAD is also showing healthy improvement in the last few months. We are very confident that the Indian economy is poised for both healthy and organised growth and providing opportunities to lakhs of people across India,” the Minister told PTI.

S&P Global Ratings has retained India’s GDP growth forecast for the current financial year at 6.8% and said high interest rates and lower fiscal spur would temper demand.

While another rating agency Fitch estimates India’s growth at 7.2% in FY25, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) estimates India’s GDP to grow at 7%.

Moody’s Ratings and Deloitte India estimates India’s GDP to grow at 6.6% in 2024-25 fiscal, while Morgan Stanley projects a growth rate of 6.8%.

When asked if the Ministry is looking at bringing an amendment bill on special economic zones (SEZs), Mr. Goyal said that several suggestions are on the table and are under consideration.

India recorded a current account surplus of $5.7 billion or 0.6% of GDP in the March quarter. This is the first time in ten quarters that the crucial metric of the country’s external strength has turned into surplus mode.

In the year-ago period, the current account deficit stood at $1.3 billion or 0.2% of GDP, and the same was $8.7 billion or 1% of GDP in the preceding quarter ending December 2023.

India’s merchandise exports rose by 9.1% to $38.13 billion in May even as the trade deficit widened to a seven-month high of USD 23.78 billion during the month, according to the latest government data.

Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das. File
| Photo Credit: EMMANUAL YOGINI

“With India’s current account deficit (CAD) declining sharply to 1% of GDP in Q2:2023-24 from 3.8% in Q2:2022-23,” RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das on February 8 said going ahead, the net balance under services and remittances would remain in large surplus, partly offsetting the trade deficit. 

“India’s services exports remained resilient in October-December 2023, driven by software, business and travel services. Moreover, with around 10.2% share in world telecommunications, computer and information services exports, India is a significant player in the world software business,” Mr. Das said in his statement. 

He said according to the World Bank, with an estimated $135 billion in inward remittances in 2024, India would remain the largest recipient of remittances globally.

On the financing side, Mr. Das said the net foreign direct investment (FDI) stood at $13.5 billion in April-November 2023 as compared with $19.8 billion a year ago.

“Foreign portfolio investment (FPI) witnessed a sharp turnaround during 2023-24 (up to February 6) with net FPI inflows of $32.4 billion as against net outflows of $6.7 billion a year ago,” he said. 

“Net accretions to non-resident deposits and net inflows under external commercial borrowings were also higher during the year,” he added. 

“As on February 2, 2024, India’s foreign exchange reserves stood at $622.5 billion .46 Vulnerability indicators suggest greater resilience of India’s external sector. We are confident of comfortably meeting all our external financing requirements,” he further said.