‘As the world braces for Trump 2.0, South Asia will not be immune to the broader structural shifts’
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In January 2025, Donald Trump will be sworn-in as the 47th President of the United States of America. Mr. Trump’s re-election, and subsequent return to office, have triggered curiosity and “nervousness” in many countries. However, in South Asia, he is likely to offer a distinct continuity. His ideology and foreign policy goals will continue to push for increased cooperation, collaboration, and consultation with India in South Asia even as his leadership style, decision-making nature, and management of great power politics will provide new opportunities and challenges.

Factors in U.S.-India ties

India and the United States have enjoyed an upward trajectory in their relationship since the beginning of the millennium. Acknowledging its leadership in the region, the U.S. even labelled India as a net-security provider in 2009. The Biden administration (2021-24) has emulated a similar outlook. With China’s increasing aggressiveness and assertiveness, India and the U.S. have strengthened their engagements and cooperation in South Asia. Through its Indo-Pacific strategy, the U.S. wants to supplement India’s regional leadership to counter China and maintain the values-based order. Its cooperation with India on the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) projects in Nepal and helping Sri Lanka out of its economic crisis, indicate this growing cooperation. Besides, Mr. Biden’s passive relations with Pakistan after withdrawing from Afghanistan helped India and the U.S. foster a mutual vision for the region.

The relationship has not been free of dissonance and divergences. New Delhi’s primary objective of cooperating with the U.S. is to push back against China and offer alternative development partnerships. However, the Biden administration has selectively scrutinised some countries on democracy and human rights under the pretext of upholding a values-based order and pushing back China. While India supported the Sheikh Hasina government in Bangladesh and pragmatically engaged with Myanmar’s junta, the U.S. pressured both regimes, including imposing targeted sanctions. This pressure nudged them closer to China. Similarly, sanctioning Indian firms for collaborating with Russia and accusations of corruption against the Adani Group has faltered two Indian projects in Sri Lanka, leaving India to face the brunt and consequences of the decisions.

There could be less irritants

However, Mr. Trump’s return is likely to assuage these irritants. As in his first term, Mr. Trump has continued to hint at burden sharing, reciprocity, nationalism, and competing against China in his foreign policy. If Mr. Trump walks the talk, he will prioritise pushing back against China while giving less importance to human rights, democracy, and nation-building. He would also want India to take the lead in the region while the U.S. would supplement the same. This would leave less space for divergences and enhance collaborative policies between both countries. Another potential irritant between both countries was concerning their policies on Afghanistan and Pakistan. During his first term, Mr. Trump punished and cooperated with Pakistan and urged India to take an active role in finding a sustainable solution in Afghanistan. With the U.S.’s withdrawal from Afghanistan and Pakistan’s little strategic importance, this issue is of little dissonance now.

During his first term, Mr. Trump promoted capacity building, development assistance, defence agreements, and cooperation with the South Asian countries. This nature of assistance would continue, given his ambitions to counter China and supplement India. Mr. Trump’s little focus on democracy, nation-building, and human rights (like in his first term) would also benefit Sri Lanka, where a new government is still looking for economic assistance and exploring a lasting solution to the Tamil issue.

This approach could benefit Myanmar and the Taliban too, although it is unclear to what extent Washington would like to engage them. However, Bangladesh, which is undergoing a political transition under the new regime, will face challenges and a potential reduction in assistance.

China and the region

Mr. Trump’s confrontational approach to China will also put South Asian countries under more pressure. Given his erratic decisions, Washington will likely be less tolerant of South Asian countries’ agency and consistent playing of one great power against the other. Besides, the region’s consistent politicisation and ambiguity over investments, defence cooperation, and agreements will likely invite more pressure from the U.S. to seek reciprocity. However, his promise of bringing peace between Russia and Ukraine and resolving the crisis in West Asia (if successful) will help weakened South Asian economies to overcome their food and fuel inflationary pressures.

As the world braces for Trump 2.0, South Asia will not be immune to the broader structural shifts. Yet, the region is likely to see more continuity. With India and the U.S. likely to increase their cooperation in South Asia and bridge their divergences, Mr. Trump’s ideology, leadership style, and management of great power politics will have opportunities and challenges for the region. How South Asian countries will cope with the new administration, even as they balance China and India, is yet to be seen.

Harsh V. Pant is Vice-President for Studies and Foreign Policy at the Observer Research Foundation (ORF). Aditya Gowdara Shivamurthy is an Associate Fellow, Neighbourhood Studies, Observer Research Foundation

“Since Plato’s Republic 2,300 years ago, philosophers have understood the process by which demagogues come to power in free and fair elections, only to overthrow democracy and establish tyrannical rule. The process is straightforward, and we have now just watched it play out.” — Jason Stanley, The End of US Democracy Was All Too Predictable.

India and the United States, two of the world’s most prominent democracies, are facing significant challenges. India, despite being the most populous democracy, struggles with systemic issues that hinder its ability to function fairly and freely.

On the other hand, the U.S., the most prosperous democracy, guarantees its citizens life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness, but still grapples with issues of race, religion, gender, and sexual orientation that undermine the true spirit of democracy. The recent U.S. presidential election has clearly exposed democracy’s vulnerabilities, sparking concerns about its effectiveness when voters choose leaders with tainted records.

Breaking down the voter demographic

Donald Trump’s polarising personality may have captured the headlines, but it is the American electorate that has propelled him to victory. According to Pew Research Center, white voters without a bachelor’s degree were more likely to associate with the Republican Party, with 63% identifying as Republicans. In comparison, 33% would align with the Democratic Party. This educational divide has become more pronounced over the past two decades, with white voters without a college degree favouring the Republican Party and those with a college degree moving toward the Democratic Party.

Mr. Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign visibly resonated with millions, securing him another term in office. This outcome can be attributed to several factors, including his ability of creating a multi-ethnic working-class coalition, which proved successful as he made strides among Latinos and African-Americans, especially men. This raises important questions about the values and the priorities of the American people, and whether they are willing to overlook Mr. Trump’s controversies in favour of his policy agenda.

The stakes of the 2024 U.S. election could not be higher, especially its make-or-break moment for American democracy. Trump’s return to power has sent jitters across the globe, and for good reason. Many countries are anxious about the potential implications of his presidency, particularly when it comes to international relations and global stability. Within the U.S., non-white minorities, legal settlers, African-Americans, and undocumented immigrants are bracing themselves for the impact of hard right-wing policies driven by nationalist sentiment. The uncertainty surrounding the citizenship status of newborn children is a significant concern. The potential consequences of his presidency on global relations, domestic policy, and marginalised communities are indeed significant.

Authoritarian rise

Moreover, we are witnessing a disturbing global trend where even robust democracies are buckling under authoritarian pressure. Hungary, once a beacon of democratic success in the post-Communist world, has evolved into the European Union’s sole absolutism in just over a decade. Countries such as Turkey, Israel, or South Asian democracies have seen authoritarian tendencies rise over the years; 37 out of 104 democracies worldwide have experienced significant relapse since 2016. The red flags are clear: wearing away of democratic institutions, manipulation of information, and the rise of acrimonious politics. Experts warn that democratic decline is often incremental, with autocratic leaders exploiting democratic institutions to consolidate power.

Bertram Gross, a former presidential adviser, ominously warned, “As I look at America today, I am not afraid to say that I am afraid.” His concern stems from America’s alarming drift towards authoritarianism, fuelled by a deeply divided and distracted citizenry. The “Deep State” strategists have subtly erected the framework for tyranny, leveraging militarised law enforcement and bureaucratic red tapism. This alarming drift has persisted across the last five decades, outdoing party lines. Though this renders the resident of the White House relatively insignificant, there is a growing concern about the potential consequences of Mr. Trump’s return.

Given his past actions, campaign promises, and the Supreme Court’s decisions effectively granting him legal immunity, many fear his administration would target liberal democracy’s core principles without any culpability. The Republican Party, the Senate, the House of Representatives and the judiciary are now in his firm grip, thereby cementing a G.O.P. trifecta. This could lead to a concentration of power and diminished checks on Mr. Trump’s actions. The question to ask is: Will the U.S. follow Hungary’s path, or will it find a way to strengthen its democratic foundations? The 2024 election, which seemed to be a pivotal moment in determining the answer, has left many astounded by the result.

Mr. Trump’s statements and policy documents, including Project 2025, reveal a systematic plan of a demagogue to transform the government into an extension of his personal will, emulating the authoritarian approach of Hungarian leader Viktor Orbán. A key proposal is the revival of Mr. Trump’s Schedule F order, which would allow the firing of about 50,000 career civil servants, undermining the merit-based civil service system. This move would grant Mr. Trump unprecedented control over the bureaucracy, enabling him to replace nonpartisan civil servants with loyalists. The stakes are high, as politicising the civil service would hinder essential government functions that millions rely on, thereby paving the way for autocracy. His plans would degrade federal employment, and potentially lead to bullying tactics by hounding the minorities that he has throughout dehumanised or ruthlessly penalised those who have been his antagonists. With Mr. Trump’s team prepared to implement these changes swiftly, the consequences for democracy and the civil service are alarming.

A message for the democratic world

As is obvious from the election outcome, Mr. Trump’s enduring grip on the American right is a phenomenon that has puzzled observers for nearly a decade. Despite the turmoil and the controversy surrounding his first term, culminating in his refusal to concede the 2020 election, Mr. Trump remained a formidable force throughout the current election. His unwavering appeal can be attributed to various factors, including his unapologetic stance on key issues. His campaign has consistently emphasised a “return” to fossil fuel dominance, pledging to boost oil and natural gas production, and roll back environmental regulations. This is broadly appreciated by voters seeking energy, independence and job creation.

To improve democracy’s effectiveness, it is essential to address challenges and ensure that democratic governments prioritise citizens’ welfare, equality, and accountability. The 2024 U.S. presidential election, particularly the Trump campaign, highlights his divisive rhetoric and policies that seem to have resonated with a specific demographic: disgruntled, underemployed or unemployed, and undereducated white males who feel threatened by immigration and societal shifts. Mr. Trump’s popularity reveals a desire among many Americans for a homogeneous world order rooted in whiteness, bigotry, misogyny, and heterosexuality. Despite his pomposity, he has tapped into deep-seated anxieties and frustrations among certain segments of the population. His message of economic nationalism, immigration reform, and an “America First” rhetoric has struck a chord with many who feel left behind by globalisation and cultural shifts. A political landscape driven by contentious magniloquence has led many to feel that democracy under him will fail to deliver on its promise of inclusivity, equality, and protection for all citizens, regardless of race, colour, gender, or creed.

Donald Trump’s rise to prominence exposes a concerning truth: many voters, particularly the mindless uneducated lot, may not fully understand the responsibilities of democratic citizenship or the risks of electing an unqualified leader, thereby emphasising that democracy as an idea might be flawed. This highlights the need for a socially aware and civically informed electorate, willing to look beyond personal biases and prioritise the greater good. It is time the American public saw the importance of reining in their runaway government, reclaiming their freedoms, and restoring justice in America.

Shelley Walia has taught Cultural Theory at Panjab University, Chandigarh