Cement output growth eased from a sharp 13.5% uptick in November to 4% in December, but this was largely due to base effects from a year ago, with production volumes actually jumping 12.4% over the previous month. 
| Photo Credit: The Hindu

Output in India’s eight core infrastructure sectors hit a seven-month high in December, even as year-on-year growth moderated a tad from an upgraded 4.4% in November to 4%.

Seven of the eight sectors that account for about 40% of India’s industrial production, recorded an improvement over December 2023 levels, with crude oil breaking a seven-month contraction streak with a minor 0.6% uptick. Natural gas production, however, fell for the sixth straight month, with a 1.8% dip.

However, in sequential terms, all eight segments posted higher production than November, with coal, steel and cement output at their highest levels since March 2024, while refinery products and fertilisers hit at least 13-month peaks. The Index of Core Industries (ICI) was at 167.6 points, 6.75% over November, and the highest level since May’s 168.2 score.

In November 2024, six core sectors had clocked sequential declines, with just refinery products and coal recording an uptick over October.

Electricity generation and steel production was 5.1% higher than a year ago, while coal output growth eased to a three-month low of 5.3%.

Cement output growth eased from a sharp 13.5% uptick in November to 4% in December, but this was largely due to base effects from a year ago, with production volumes actually jumping 12.4% over the previous month.

For the first nine months of 2024-25, core sectors have now recorded a growth of just 4.2%, almost half the 8.3% rise over the same period of 2023-24, with all eight sectors reporting significantly slower upticks than last year. Crude oil output, which had contracted 0.3% in April to December 2023, has tanked 2.1% so far in 2024-25.

Rating agency ICRA’s chief economist Aditi Nayar reckoned that growth in the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) could moderate somewhat to around 3%-5% in December 2024 from 5.2% in November 2024, partly on account of an unfavourable base. The IIP had risen 2.5% in November 2023 and 4.4% in December 2023.

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| Photo Credit: The Hindu

Output in India’s eight core infrastructure sectors that constitute about 40% of overall industrial production, grew at a four-month high pace of 4.3% in November, led by a 13% surge in cement, marking the sharpest rise in the key construction input’s production in well over a year.

On a sequential basis, however, the Index of Core Industries (ICI) was down 3.3% from October levels to 156.8, with six of eight sectors recording a decline in production. Refinery products and coal were the only segments to see a rise in absolute output levels, hitting a four-month and eight-month high, respectively.

The Commerce and Industry Ministry also revised upwards October’s growth number for core sectors from 3.1% estimated earlier, to 3.7%. On a year-on-year basis, crude oil (-2.1%) and natural gas (-1.9%) output remained in contractionary territory for the seventh and fifth month, respectively. However, the extent of contraction was at a six-month low for crude oil, and a three-month high for natural gas.

Electricity generation rose 3.8% from last November levels, but was a sharp 12.9% below October’s levels, and in fact, marked the weakest output recorded since December 2023. Steel output was up 4.8% from a year ago, but was 4.7% under October’s levels. Fertilisers’ output expanded 2% year-on-year, while refinery products were up 2.9% and coal production rose 7.5%.

Despite the double-digit growth in November, cement output was actually 5.5% lower than October and stood at a four-month low.

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| Photo Credit: Getty Images/iStockphoto

Output in India’s eight core infrastructure sectors, that constitute a tad over 40% of industrial production, recovered to rise 3.1% in October, the best performance in three months in terms of growth as well as absolute output levels.

The Index of Core Industries (ICI) which had slumped to a 10-month low in September, recovered 3.9% on a sequential basis to a provisional number of 161.3 in October. The Commerce and Industry Ministry also revised upwards the core sectors’ growth in September to 2.4% from a previously estimated 2%. This was preceded by a 1.6% contraction in the index in August, the first such shrinkage in three and a half years.

Six of eight sectors recorded an uptick in October, led by coal which grew at a four-month high pace of 7.8%. Refinery products grew 5.2%, a tad slower than the 5.8% rise in September, while Steel grew at the fastest pace in three months at 4.2%.

Electricity generation grew 0.6% from last October, inching up from September’s 0.5% year-on-year growth. However, generation levels were the lowest in seven months in absolute terms.

However, barring electricity, the other seven core sectors recorded a sequential rise in their absolute output levels, with steel production at a seven-month high, and cement and coal at four-month peaks.

Cement production grew 3.3% in October, while fertilisers output rose a mere 0.4%, the slowest in five months.

Natural Gas production contracted year-on-year for the fourth straight month, declining 1.2% in October. Crude oil output also tanked for the sixth month in a row, with October recording the sharpest decline of 4.8% in this six-month streak.