In June, S. Somanath, Chairman of the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) and Secretary of the Department of Space, said ISRO’s launch vehicle capability was three-times the demand. Many experts in the spaceflight sector and beyond interpreted this to mean the space launch market was grim. Mr. Somanath also suggested strong demand was needed for launch vehicles from the domestic Indian market.

India currently has four launch vehicles: the Small Satellite Launch Vehicle (SSLV), the Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle (PSLV), the Geosynchronous Satellite Launch Vehicle (GSLV), and the Launch Vehicle Mark-III (LVM-3). These rockets can launch satellites weighing up to four tonnes to the geosynchronous orbit. India also relies on foreign launch vehicles, like Europe’s Ariane V and SpaceX’s Falcon 9, when a satellite weighs more than four tonnes.

At present, the country operates a fleet of satellites with applications in communications, remote sensing, positioning, navigation and timing (PNT), meteorology, disaster management, space-based internet, scientific missions, and experimental missions. It also needs launch vehicles for space missions like Chandrayaan 3 and Aditya L1.

All this makes it look like there are more applications and satellites than there are launch vehicles — which is the opposite of what Somanath mentioned. Where then is the issue?

Supply-driven to demand-driven model

The Indian space programme used to follow a supply-driven model: ISRO would build and launch satellites and then look for customers who needed the services provided by the satellites. When the Indian government reformed the space sector in 2019-2020, it changed this to a demand-driven model. Here, a satellite needs to be built and launched only if there is already demand for it. This may have led to the situation Mr. Somanath mentioned.

There is now a chicken and egg problem. The customer of the services provided by the satellite needs to be educated about the need for the service. The customer will then create a demand for a service that will need a satellite to be launched. This will provide the demand Mr. Somanath is asking for.

Consider the example of the internet. There needs to be a demand for space-based internet in a country already filled with affordable fibre and mobile-based internet services, so a company will launch a constellation of satellites into orbit to provide that service.

The question arises: Who will educate the customer, ISRO or the industry?

Without such educated customers, demand at the scale ISRO expects will not be created. The customers here are not only consumers of space-based internet. These are other companies, government institutions, defence enterprises, and ordinary people including farmers, bankers, etc. So the ‘amount’ of education required is very great.

The other area from which demand is likely to arise is human spaceflight. This includes human-rated launch vehicles that carry humans and supplies into orbit and to destinations like an orbiting space station or the moon. There could in future be demand for space tourism as well.

Launch capability limitations

India’s launch vehicles are also not powerful enough to undertake certain missions like Chandrayaan 4. China used its Long March 5 launch vehicle to launch its Chang’e 4 and Chang’e 5 missions in a single launch. India’s LVM-3 has less than one-third of Long March 5’s capability (28% to be more precise) and will need two LVM-3 launches to launch all the components of Chandrayaan 4.

ISRO will be upgrading the LVM-3 with a semi-cryogenic engine to boost its payload capacity to six tonnes to the geostationary transfer orbit (GTO). The organisation will also need a new launch vehicle — already dubbed the Next Generation Launch Vehicle (NGLV), a.k.a. Project Soorya — to carry 10 tonnes to GTO. But it has only submitted a funding proposal thus far for this project. Other variants of this launch vehicle are expected to raise this vehicle’s lift capacity.

India will also need one more successful flight of the SSLV to be confident about its ability to launch smaller satellites. Smaller satellites are usually experimental and university-built. More success in this domain will encourage space companies to build larger satellites, eventually leading to a demand for launch vehicles.

Launch vehicle economics

All these launch vehicles will need satellites to launch. The heavier vehicles can fulfil some national goals like lunar exploration and a space station while ISRO can use the smaller satellites for technology and capability demonstration. However, the latter will constitute only a small number of launches.

Satellites have a defined mission life. As they get old, they will need to be replaced with newer satellites. This will also create a demand for launch vehicles. However, mission operators like their satellites to live longer and have been improving their lifetimes with software and hardware upgrades. This complicates estimates of the number and frequency of launch vehicles that will be needed.

Launch vehicles are improving as well. In a single launch, the PSLV can deliver multiple satellites in multiple orbits. Rocket stages are becoming reusable, which reduces the cost of building the rocket and increases profitability. ISRO has been building its Reusable Launch Vehicle and vertical landing technologies to make reusable landing stages. It is also making an effort to replace toxic fuels for rocket engines with green alternatives.

Launch vehicle perspectives

Mr. Somanath himself provided a solution for the problem he highlighted. He suggested we need an ecosystem that creates demand for various services, leading to a demand for data, leading to more sources of data (like satellites), culminating in a demand for launch vehicles. The richer the ecosystem, the greater the demand.

The Indian government wants the private sector to create demand among customers and to build and launch satellites. It wants them to look for services to offer customers in India and abroad. It also wants revenue by providing launch services of its own. Finally, the government wants to upskill workers and give them jobs.

However, private companies don’t want the government to be in the launch business. Instead, they want the government to be their customer and to provide rule of law and reliable regulations.

This is because private players desire a reliable source of revenue, which the Indian government can be over a long period of time. There is thus talk of the government being an ‘anchor customer’ helping companies in their early days.

The roadmap here is for the government to exit the launch vehicle business at some point, leaving the companies with sufficient demand for launch vehicles. This is similar to the situation in the U.S., where arms of the U.S. government award contracts to SpaceX, Blue Origin, etc. to execute launches with their payloads.

Thus, the Indian government will absorb the cost of the transition from supply-driven to demand-driven building of satellites and launch vehicles. But it isn’t yet educating its own Ministries and creating some of the anchor demand for satellites and launch vehicles.

Pradeep Mohandas is a technical writer and space enthusiast in Pune.

Officials and representatives of the organisations at the memorandum signing event.
| Photo Credit: Special arrangement

Tamil Nadu Industrial Development Corporation Limited (TIDCO) has signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with IN-SPACe, a single-window nodal agency for all space sector activities of non-government entities (NGE) in India.

The MoU was signed in the presence of Chairman, IN-SPACe, Pawan Kumar Goenka; Chief Secretary Shiv Das Meena; and Secretary, Industries, Investment Promotion and Commerce Department V. Arun Roy. The MoU was exchanged by Sandeep Nanduri, Managing Director, TIDCO, and Lochan Sehra, Joint Secretary, IN-SPACe.

According to details provided by TIDCO officials, Tamil Nadu considers the space sector a key sub-sector of Aerospace and Defence and a potential major contributor to the State’s economy. In line with the rising demand for space-based activities across the space value chain, TIDCO intends to establish a space industrial and propellants park, spread over a total area of 2,000 acres, and also plans to create a Centre of Excellence (CoE) to support the occupants of the park. IN-SPACe’s expertise will be a key value to the proposed CoE.

IN-SPACe, apart from rendering technical guidance for setting up the CoE, will promote space and allied sector industries in setting up their manufacturing facilities in this park. TIDCO will identify the required land parcel for establishing the space manufacturing cluster and also provide special incentives to space industrial units. TIDCO will also establish common technical infrastructure for which consultation will provided by IN-SPACe.

Indian National Space Promotion and Authorisation Centre (IN-SPACe) Chairman Pawan Kumar Goenka with former ISRO chairman A.S. Kiran Kumar at the International Conference on Space 2023, in Bengaluru on September 14, 2023.

Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) will facilitate transfer of technology (ToT) for the Small Satellite Launch Vehicle (SSLV) to one private company.

In July, the Indian National Space Promotion and Authorization Centre (IN-SPACe), which is the single-window nodal agency for boosting the space economy of India by promoting active participation of the private sector, had issued an Expression of Interest (EoI) for technology transfer of SSLV to Indian industries.

On September 14, IN-SPACe Chairman Pawan Goenka informed that 23 companies had applied for the ToT.

Speaking at International Conference on Space 2023 organised by Confederation of Indian Industry (CII), Mr. Goenka said, “With regard to SSLV’s ToT, we are transferring the launch vehicle lock, stock and barrel, as they say, completely into the hands of the private sector. It is, perhaps, the first-ever example where a space agency anywhere in the world has transferred a full design of a launch vehicle to the private sector. We had 23 companies applying for the ToT, but we will be able to give it to only one company.”

The last date for submission of proposal in response to the EOI is September 25. Screening and identifying the prospective bidders will take place on October 30.

SSLV is a 3-stage launch vehicle capable of launching approximately 500kg satellite in 500-km planar orbit. According to ISRO, the key features of SSLV are low cost, with low turn-around time, flexibility in accommodating multiple satellites, launch-on-demand feasibility, and minimal launch infrastructure requirements.

Mr. Goenka said that in the last few weeks, the expectations from ISRO and the Indian space ecosystem on a whole have increased following the soft-landing of the Chandrayaan-3’s lander on the Moon.

“The last few weeks have been amazing, starting with the Chandrayaan-3 soft landing on the Moon, and Aditya L-1 launch, and the G-20 summit. With Chandrayaan-3, what we have achieved is extraordinary, which we have not seen in a long time and, in a sense, it has put in a lot more responsibility in the space sector. Now, the expectations from the Indian space sector are a lot more, not just from ISRO but from everyone in the space ecosystem,” Mr. Goenka said.

IN-SPACe is trying to create all-inclusive infrastructure for industries to facilitate manufacturing.

“We are trying to create plug-and-play infrastructure for industries. We are close to entering into a Memorandum of Understanding with one State and working with another State,” Mr. Goenka said.