A Sri Lankan polling officer carries a ballot box as he leaves for his designated polling booth in Colombo on September 20, 2024, on the eve of the country’s presidential election.
| Photo Credit: AP

Sri Lanka’s ninth Presidential election, which is slated for September 21, is being held under strange circumstances for more than one reason.

The country is going to the polls two years after the country witnessed a tumultuous political revolt preceded by an acute economic crisis. Even in 1953, the rising cost of living, drove the then Prime Minister Dudley Senanayake to step down, after the Left’s massive hartal. But his successor, John Kotelawala, assumed office under much less painful conditions than what Ranil Wickremesinghe faced in July 2022 when Mr. Wickremesinghe became President.

Editorial | ​Back from the brink: On the Sri Lankan elections and the road ahead

This election also marks a churning that has taken place in the political arena. The United National Party (UNP), one of the established and traditional parties alongside the now-marginalised Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP), is not in the race, even though its leader, Mr. Wickremesinghe is in the fray as an independent, hoping to draw support from a broader political constituency. While the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) dislodged the SLFP as a principal player in the 2018 local authorities’ elections, the UNP’s decline was apparent in the 2020 parliamentary elections when the party could obtain only one out of 225 seats, this too in an indirect way, i.e., the National List. Just as the SLPP has walked away with a substantial portion of the SLFP’s vote base, the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB), led by Sajith Premadasa, has done it for the UNP.

Apart from Mr. Wickremesinghe and Mr. Premadasa, there is one more key contender in the fray — Anura Kumara Dissanayake, leader of the home-grown Lefitist party, Janatha Vimukti Peramuna (JVP).

One of the curious elements of the election is that the SLPP, after the 2022 popular uprising, is being viewed as a marginal player. It remains a subject of debate on who the major beneficiary would be in the event of the SLPP’s votebase eroding substantially. There is a perception that the JVP has reaped the political dividend out of the uprising.

The Tamil factor

There is every likelihood, this time, of the minorities, especially Tamils (those in the north and the east, and in the hill country) not voting en bloc for any one of the principal candidates. This is essentially because of divisions among Tamil parties in rallying behind a particular candidate. Both Mr. Wickremesinghe and Mr. Premadasa are banking on the support of certain Tamil parties. It is for the first time in the Ilankai Tamil Arasu Katchi’s (ITAK) history that party member, P. Ariyanenthiran, has entered the presidential fray, even though prominent Tamil figures had contested the elections earlier. But, Mr Ariyenthiran’s presence, as a “common” and independent Tamil candidate, does not seem to have the full support of his party.

Under the circumstances, it is to be seen whether Mr. Premadasa will repeat what he did in 2019 by bagging 70% of votes polled in the six electoral districts, where ethnic minorities are dominant. (Last time, when as the UNP’s nominee, he secured about 42% of votes across the country.) In fact, in the 2015 presidential election, the victory of Maithripala Sirisena against the formidable and incumbent President Mahinda Rajapaksa, was attributed, among others, to the huge support that he got in the Tamil-speaking areas.

One of the striking features of the 2019 presidential election was that Gotabaya Rajapaksa of the SLPP had demonstrated that success was possible without much support from the Tamils and Muslims. Yet, this time, no important candidate has chosen to ignore them. Namal Rajapaksa, Mahinda Rajapaksa’s son and SLPP candidate, is talking of transforming the Jaffna peninsula into a “thriving technology and business hub” like the Silicon Valley. All this is due to the realisation that securing more than 50% of the vote is a huge challenge.

Candidate profiles

Mr. Wickremesinghe, 75, knows well that he cannot get a better chance to retain the post which he got under extraordinary circumstances — this point is being used to criticise him for not having become the President the “legitimate way”. Though no one is arguing that all economic woes have become a thing of the past, the Sri Lankan’s economy is showing signs of stability, thanks to a host of factors including the initial support provided by India and the implementation of an economic recovery programme supported by the International Monetary Fund. Mr. Wickremesinghe deserves credit for achieving what he has done, as both Mr. Premadasa and Mr. Dissanayake turned down the offer made by Gotabaya Rajapaksa to form an interim government in early 2022 amid the economic crisis before Mr. Wickremesinghe became Prime Minister. But, the problem for him is that he does not have the support of a principal political force any longer.

Mr. Sajith, though bereft of the charisma of Mahinda Rajapaksa or the stature of Mr. Wickremesinghe, has, been able to keep his flock together for the last five years, a feat that even the more charming Gamini Dissanayake could not do in the early 1990s after leaving the UNP. Dissanayake eventually returned to his parent party. As for the JVP’s chief, it will be a huge jump if he is able to net 25%-30% as neither he nor his formation crossed even the 4% mark in the previous presidential and general elections. It is to be seen whether the ‘element of strangeness’ will be evident in the result too.

ramakrishnan.t@thehindu.co.in

Sajith Premadasa, leader of the Samagi Jana Balawegaya, party gestures as he arrives at the Election Commission in Rajagiriya to submit his nomination papers for the upcoming presidential election, scheduled for September 21, in Colombo, Sri Lanka. File.
| Photo Credit: Reuters

The Ilankai Tamil Arasu Katchi (ITAK), a prominent political party representing Tamils of Sri Lanka’s north and east, on Sunday (September 1) pledged support for presidential aspirant Sajith Premadasa in the September 21 election.

The move, which reflects one significant position within the island nation’s fragmented Tamil polity, comes even as the ITAK’s former coalition partners — along with other political groups — back former parliamentarian and ITAK member P. Ariyanethiran as a “common Tamil candidate” in the presidential race, in which incumbent President Ranil Wickremesinghe, Mr. Premadasa, and opposition politician Anura Kumara Dissanayake have emerged as key contenders.

Also read: Prominent Tamil party in Sri Lanka seeks governance structure based on federal model

The central committee of ITAK met on Sunday and decided the party will not back Mr. Ariyanethiran, instead announcing its support for Mr. Premadasa, who Tamils voted for in large numbers in the 2019 presidential election, principally to reject Gotabaya Rajapaksa. Further, ITAK sources said the party would request Mr. Ariyanethiran to withdraw from the race, to arrest the apparent divisions within the Tamil electorate.

The ITAK was the chief constituent of the former Tamil National Alliance (TNA), a formidable grouping representing Tamils of the north and east in parliament. The TNA collapsed in recent years amid differences among members. The ITAK, too, is grappling with internal differences that have only aggravated after senior party member and noted Tamil leader R. Sampanthan passed away in July.

Also read: Veteran Sri Lankan Tamil leader Sampanthan passes away

The ITAK’s position on the presidential polls was awaited by many, especially in the wake of party member and legislator S. Shritharan recently endorsing the “common candidate”. His party and parliamentary colleague M.A. Sumanthiran, meanwhile, has termed the idea of fielding a Tamil candidate a “nonsensical one”, arguing that the move would weaken Tamils’ bargaining power with the winning candidate, who will invariably be a contestant from the island’s southern, Sinhala-Buddhist majority.

Tamil voters are faced with different positions of their political leadership, ranging from backing a Tamil candidate, or a preferred Sinhalese leader, or boycotting the elections, as the All Ceylon Tamil Congress has decided to, protesting the many failed promises of past leaders.  

Following the ITAK’s announcement, Mr. Premadasa said on social media platform X: “Together, we’ll create a future where everyone wins — a future with no racism, no discrimination and a future built on unity, strength, and shared purpose.”

Mr. Premadasa, who released his manifesto last week, has pledged a new constitution where Sri Lanka’s current political system would be converted to a parliamentary system “with maximum devolution based on the 13th Amendment under one country”. The contentious 13^th Amendment, which assures a measure of power devolution to Sri Lanka’s nine provinces, was passed in 1987 following the Indo-Lanka Accord. It is yet to see full implementation in nearly four decades. Successive Sri Lankan leaders have refused to part especially with land and police powers although many Tamil leaders see the legislation as inadequate for meaningful power-sharing.

Jaffna MP M.A. Sumanthiran. File
| Photo Credit: R. Ragu

The Ilankai Tamil Arasu Katchi (ITAK), a prominent political party representing Tamils of Sri Lanka’s north and east, has said it would consider backing a presidential aspirant who agrees to its demand for a governance structure based on a federal model.

The party’s position, which reiterates its long-standing demand for a just political solution to the civil war-scarred country’s Tamil question, comes ahead of Sri Lanka’s presidential polls scheduled to be held on September 21. It reflects one position from within the island’s visibly divided Tamil polity.

While some, including from the ITAK, its former alliance partners (People’s Liberation Organisation of Tamil Eelam (PLOTE) and Tamil Eelam Liberation Organisation (TELO), and former Northern Provincial Council Chief Minister C.V. Wigneswaran, are backing a “common Tamil candidate” in the crucial national election, the Tamil National People’s Front (TNPF) is calling for a boycott of the polls.

Addressing a media conference in the northern Vavuniya district last weekend, ITAK’s Jaffna MP M.A. Sumanthiran said: “As the main party representing the Tamil people, we are telling all candidates openly that we need a governance structure with power devolution based on a federal model, in a merged north and east. In short, this is our political position.”

Three main contenders, President Ranil Wickremesinghe, Leader of Opposition Sajith Premadasa, and opposition parliamentarian leading a third force Anura Kumara Dissanayake are vying for the country’s top office, in the first election after Sri Lanka’s people’s uprising of 2022 amid a devastating economic crash. All three candidates have visited the north recently and promised to devolve power and develop the region’s economy. However, ITAK members have said they are awaiting the manifestos of the candidates to evaluate their specific proposals, given that the existing 13^th Amendment is widely deemed inadequate by most Tamil parties.

The legislation, which followed the Indo-Lanka Accord of 1987, guarantees some power to the provincial councils. But in the nearly 40 years since its enactment, it is yet to be fully implemented, prompting some Tamil actors to seek a new, “meaningful” arrangement of power sharing between the Centre and the provinces. Despite a long civil war, and the passing of 15 years since its gory end, Tamils are still left with their historic demand for justice and equality, through substantive political rights.  

In an editorial on the need for a political solution to Sri Lanka’s Tamil speaking people, leading Tamil newspaper Virakesari on Tuesday outlined key initiatives taken in the past in this regard. “Although the Provincial Council system was set up as a solution to the ethnic conflict, some of the powers guaranteed are yet to be devolved [to the provincial councils) till date. Land and police powers have not been provided. Therefore, in the view of Tamil speaking people of the north and east, the reality is that the 13^th Amendment has not fulfilled their political aspirations,” it said, asking presidential aspirants to spell out their proposal and work towards it with the people’s mandate.