Kristrún Mjöll Frostadóttir, leader of the Samfylking, Social Democratic party, right, celebrates with a supporter at the celebration party following the closure of the polling stations in Reykjavik, Saturday Nov. 30, 2024.
| Photo Credit: AP

Iceland’s centre-left Social Democratic Alliance became the biggest party in a snap election that unseated the ruling coalition of the past seven years, the final count showed on Sunday (December 1, 2024).

The Social Democrats, led by Kristrun Frostadottir, gained 15 seats in the 63-seat parliament with 20.8% of votes, state broadcaster RUV reported.

Also read: Icelanders head to polls after government collapse

Frostadottir, 36, took over as party leader two years ago and has championed the Nordic welfare model, vowing to tackle a cost-of-living crisis sparked by high inflation and borrowing costs.

Opinion polls ahead of the election had forecast the three ruling coalition parties – the Independence Party, the Left-Green Movement and the Progressive Party – to be the biggest losers.

However, the Independence Party, led by Prime Minister Bjarni Benediktsson, came second with 19.4% of votes, gaining 14 seats after a late surge in support, while the Liberal Reform Party was third with 15.8% and 11 seats.

Parties require 32 seats for a majority in the Althingi parliament.

The Left-Green Movement, formerly led by Katrin Jakobsdottir before she stepped down as prime minister in April to run for president, failed to win any seats.

The snap election was called last month after escalating coalition disagreements and public discontent over migration and energy and housing issues.

Icelanders vote in a legislative election on Saturday (November 30, 2024) after the collapse of a fraught coalition prompted a snap poll where the economy is a top concern.

Battling inflation and high interest rates, the economy, housing and healthcare have dominated the campaign for the 2,68,000 people eligible to vote. Most voting stations will be open between 9 a.m. (0900 GMT) and 10 p.m.

Fears have been raised that some voters may struggle to reach polling stations as heavy snowfall and strong winds have been predicted for some regions. “I feel we need a change,” 48-year-old film producer Grimar Jonsson, told AFP in Reykjavik.

Mr. Jonsson said he hoped to see a change of government and “getting rid of so-called old-fashioned political parties.” Prime Minister Bjarni Benediktsson’s three-party, left-right coalition resigned in October.

The coalition of Mr. Benediktsson’s Independence Party, the Left-Green Movement and the centre-right Progressive Party was divided on a range of issues but broke down over the handling of migrants and asylum seekers.

Despite causing the demise of the government, immigration is not a galvanising issue. One in five residents in the country is foreign-born.

“It is very prominent in the public debate amongst politicians, but still it does not seem to be an issue that people are putting at the front of their list of important issues,” Eirikur Bergmann, a politics professor at Bifrost University, told AFP.

Economic issues and housing are top concerns for many

According to a Gallup poll published in early November, only 32% listed immigration as a key issue and only 18% included asylum issues. In contrast, healthcare, economic issues and housing were a top concern for more than 60%.

Broadcaster RUV reported that an AI chatbot set up to answer questions about the election had mostly been asked about housing and tax issues. For first-time voter Lena Brynjardottir, housing is a top concern.

“But also I want to have focus on the financial aspects while also looking at human rights and immigration as well”, 18-year-old Brynjardottir told AFP. “I think balance is what is the most important for me right now in this election.” The coalition has lost support during its time in power.

According to a recent RUV poll, only 49% of those who voted for the Independence Party in 2021 planned to do so again.

“The Left-Green Movement looks to retain less than a fifth of its voters and risks falling below the Parliamentary cutoff of five per cent, meaning it could fail to get a seat,” according to the poll by analyst group Maskina.

Few Icelandic parties have left their time in power unscathed since the 2008 financial crisis — which hit Iceland’s over-indebted banks.

“In the last 15 years, voters in Iceland have been extremely critical of their governments and voted against the government in all elections except one,” Olafur Hardarson, professor of political science at the University of Iceland, told AFP.

The exception was Katrin Jakobsdottir of the Left-Green Movement, who held on as Prime Minister in the last election. Mr. Benediktsson took over as Prime Minister in April 2024 after Ms. Jakobsdottir resigned to run for the Presidency, which she failed to win.

Seven volcanic eruptions this year

This year, Iceland has experienced more than political turmoil. The southwestern Reykjanes peninsula, which had not seen a volcanic eruption for eight centuries prior to March 2021, has had seven eruptions this year — including one last week that is still spewing lava.

The eruptions have led to multiple evacuations of the fishing village of Grindavik, and Iceland’s famed Blue Lagoon hot spa. Going into the election, the Social Democratic Alliance — led by Kristrun Frostadottir — is ahead in the polls with 20.4%, RUV reported this week, citing another Maskina poll.

In second place is the Liberal Reform Party, with 19.2% of voter support. Mr. Benediktsson’s Independence Party polled in third place with 14.5%. According to Mr. Hardarson, if the election results come in close to the polls, one likely coalition would be the Social Democratic Alliance and the Liberal Reform Party — with one or two others — as their policies are relatively close.

“This is difficult to predict because in Iceland, the coalition game is relatively open,” he noted.