Picture this: the current interim government in Syria, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), gives way to an elected government. Under this fledgling democratic setup, a phoenix-like Syria rises from the ashes of its long, bloody civil war. Millions of Syrian refugees and internally displaced people are returning home joyously; investors are trickling in; broken infrastructure is being rebuilt; signs of productivity and employment are breathing life into an economy that had been on life support for years under the misrule of former dictator-President Bashar al-Assad.

Not ideal. But certainly a dream start in a collective effort to rebuild Syria. This could be the best case scenario for Syria in the near future.

Now, consider the flip side: the HTS-led rebels, having accomplished their main mission of ousting the Assad regime, begin to implode. Factions within HTS are suddenly in a cutthroat race to outdo each other in chaos and infighting. Meanwhile, the Syrian National Army (SNA) (the Turkish-backed Free Syrian Army), and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) (the US-backed Kurdish-led alliance), aren’t just holding ground, they are flexing their muscles and making power grabs for Damascus. Russian military bases remain firmly planted along the coast, Israeli forces patrol the southern fringes, US troops stick to their northeast corner and Turkey remains a strong influence and a key player. Not to be outdone, Iran is busy trying to rebuild its covert web of influence.

This, I am afraid, could possibly be Syria’s worst-case scenario in the coming months and years. 

A Game Of Chess

As 2024 draws to a close, a year that has been nothing short of seismic for West Asia, Syria stands at a crossroads—a precarious, nail-biting threshold where the future is frustratingly unpredictable.

The collapse of the Assad dynasty’s 54-year authoritarian rule has sparked a glimmer of hope for millions of long-suffering Syrians. But it’s also thrown them headfirst into uncharted waters.

If you look closely, Syria appears to be a giant geopolitical chessboard, with too many players hovering over the pieces, waiting to see who dares make the first move. For now, it’s all guesswork and a high-stakes game of wait-and-watch.

But amid Syria’s turmoil, HTS, once the al-Nusra Front, has swapped its militant garb for Western-style suits as its leader, Abu al-Jolani—who now prefers to call himself by his real name Ahmed al-Sharaa—attempts a political makeover. Western powers, while still labelling HTS a terrorist group, are taking a wait and see approach. They have laid down the terms: protect minorities, ensure a peaceful transition and maybe earn relief from sanctions. But skepticism lingers.

Turkey continues its game of geopolitical chess, backing the Syrian National Army (SNA) against the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which it accuses of being a PKK front. Ankara insists the PKK, a long-time thorn in its side, be disarmed. Meanwhile, the US and UK champion the SDF cause for its role in thrashing the Islamic State terrorists. — while all the while trying to mollify Turkey’s security concerns. HTS, for its part, plays the diplomat, subtly supporting “freedom” for SDF areas while trying to keep the PKK card out of play.

The fall of Assad is a hard punch to Iran’s “axis of resistance,” slicing through its supply line to Hezbollah in Lebanon and unravelling a carefully knit network of proxies. Israel, never one to miss an opportunity, has stepped up its airstrikes—nearly 500 so far—on Syrian targets while expressing its intention to expand settlements in the Golan Heights. If anyone thought Assad’s departure would calm the waters, Israel’s actions suggest otherwise.

As for the Islamic State, rumours of its demise were premature. The Americans, who once boasted of defeating it forever, now acknowledge that the group is making a comeback, with attacks in Syria doubling in 2024. 

The US, with its 900 boots on Syrian ground, is keeping a wary eye while managing detention camps teeming with Islamic State fighters and their families—a breeding ground for trouble.

Meanwhile, the UN Security Council’s 2015 resolution to work on a new Syrian constitution and elections remains unfinished business. So, watch out, as in this theatre of chaos, the script is still being written—an act that will continue even after we enter 2025—with far too many authors vying to write its final chapter.

High-Stakes Drama

West Asia has long been synonymous with power plays, ideological tussles and resource-driven strategies. The region remains a playground for US military might, still calling the shots. In 2024, brinkmanship hit new heights, with the Israel-Iran face-off narrowly avoiding a full-scale regional war.

The year also witnessed relentless violence between Israel and Hamas, with Hezbollah adding fuel to the fire. Over 45,000 Palestinians have been killed, and nearly 90% of Gaza’s population has been left homeless. On November 21, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former defence minister Yoav Gallant, accusing them of war crimes during the Israel-Hamas war—an unprecedented move against the leader of a major Western ally.

Many analysts believe Prime Minister Netanyahu’s expansionist policies and hardline stance have sparked global outrage, yet Arab support for Palestine remains inconsistent, limited to fiery rhetoric rather than meaningful action. The conflict continues to derail efforts to normalise relations between Israel and Arab states, particularly Saudi Arabia under the Abraham Accords which was initiated by Donald Trump in his first term.

Fragile Peace, Lingering Rivalries

The much-lauded 2023 China-brokered rapprochement between arch-rivals Iran and Saudi Arabia is already showing cracks. In 2024, their simmering rivalries have resurfaced, with Syria at the heart of the dispute. Iran is pressuring Syria’s interim government to honour a reported $30 billion bilateral assistance deal—not so much for the cash, but to keep its foothold in a post-Assad Syria. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s attention remains divided between Yemen’s quagmire and its ‘Vision 2030’ ambitions. This fragile peace risks unravelling under unresolved tensions. Proxy conflicts in Yemen and Iraq could continue to simmer or boil over, potentially reigniting destabilising confrontations or paving the way for genuine regional integration.

US Retreat And Regional Power Shifts

Many Western analysts believe that the Biden administration’s pivot to checkmating China has left West Asia playing a game of geopolitical musical chairs. Turkey is flexing its muscles as a mediator and powerbroker, while the UAE expands its influence through savvy economic deals and security initiatives. Russia, despite internal struggles, clings on to its strategic edge with military bases in Syria. A diminished US presence creates opportunities for regional powers to step up but also risks heightening competition. As Turkey, Iran and Saudi Arabia vie for dominance, West Asia’s future looks more unpredictable.

Beyond Oil

OPEC production cuts in 2024 reinforced the region’s dependence on crude, even as some member nations look to diversify. Saudi Arabia’s NEOM megacity and green energy projects symbolise ambitions for a post-oil future. Success in diversification could stabilise the region, but failure would leave many nations vulnerable to socio-economic upheaval in a world moving beyond oil.

A Powerbroker In Waiting

Turkey seems to be in pole position to spearhead Syria’s reconstruction and play a significant role in stabilising West Asia. With its embassy in Damascus reopening after 12 years, Ankara is signalling its intent to play a pivotal role in Syria’s recovery from civil war and economic devastation. In the long run, Turkey’s influence is likely to grow as it navigates this complex rebuilding effort.

For Turkey and the European Union, the stakes are high. The promise of a stable Syria isn’t just about altruism; it’s a strategic necessity. During her visit to Ankara on December 17, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced an additional $1 billion in funding to Turkey for refugee support—a timely acknowledgement of Turkey’s heavy lifting. Hosting around 3.5 million Syrian refugees, Turkey has shouldered the brunt of the crisis, while the EU has absorbed over 1.5 million refugees since the conflict began in 2011.

If Turkey can balance its role as both a regional power and a bridge to the West, it could turn this moment into a diplomatic and humanitarian win. This will also have a stabilising influence in the entire West Asian countries. 

Trump Factor 

West Asia in 2024 stands at a crossroads. While the region faces numerous challenges—from political instability to economic dependence on oil —there are also opportunities for transformation. Whether 2025 becomes a year of renewal or regression depends on the choices made by regional and global actors alike. The Trump factor is going to have a significant say in how the new year and beyond will pan out for West Asia. So far, very mixed signals have come from the incoming Trump administration about the extent of its plans to be actively involved in the region. Until that is clear I believe no regional player will be willing to take any decisive step just yet.

But as the curtain falls on 2024, one thing is clear, West Asia will remain a region whose dynamics will continue to shape the world for years to come.

(Syed Zubair Ahmed is a London-based senior Indian journalist with three decades of experience with the Western media)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author

Moscow:

The Russian parliament has passed a law that would allow courts to suspend bans on groups designated as terrorist organisations by Moscow. The new law, passed by parliament’s lower house, the State Duma, paved the way for Moscow to normalise ties with the Afghan Taliban and potentially with the new leadership of Syria.

It outlines a legal mechanism for groups to be removed from the country’s official banned list of outlawed “terrorist” organisations by order of a court if they cease terrorist-related activity. The Taliban was in the first batch of groups to be added to the list, in February 2003, and Syria’s HTS was added in 2020.

So far, no country in the world recognises the Taliban government in Afghanistan, which seized power in August 2021 as US-led forces staged a chaotic withdrawal after 20 years of war. However, the Kremlin has courted relations with the Islamist group, with President Vladimir Putin saying in July that the Taliban was now an ally in fighting terrorism.

There are also calls in Moscow for the removal of Syrian group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)–that spearheaded the toppling of President Bashar al-Assad this month– from Moscow’s list of banned terror groups.

The leader of Russia’s Muslim region of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov, on Monday said Russia needed ties to the new Syrian authorities to ensure stability and prevent a humanitarian catastrophe. Kadyrov is seen as a close Putin ally.

Russia’s Stake In Syria And Afghanistan

Moscow sees a major security threat from Islamist militant groups based in a string of countries from Afghanistan to the Middle East, where Russia lost a major ally with the fall of Assad.

The toppling of the Assad regime threatens the end of Russia’s presence in the Middle East and its coveted military foothold in the eastern Mediterranean region– the naval base of Tartus and, further north, the Hmeimim Air Base, both with 49-year-leases received after Russia helped to save Assad’s regime in 2015.

Moscow has used these bases to challenge American supremacy by projecting its military power in the eastern Mediterranean and claiming the role of a world power with vital regional interests. With the end of the friendly regime, Russia’s military foothold in the Mediterranean is threatened, but this does not mean that Moscow is about to withdraw from the region.

The Kremlin, this week, said that Moscow was in contact with the new leadership in Syria, where it hopes to retain the use of an airfield and a naval base.

Russia also has a complex and bloodstained history in Afghanistan. Soviet troops invaded the country in December 1979 to prop up a Communist government but became bogged down in a long war against mujahideen fighters armed by the United States. Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev pulled his army out in 1989, by which time some 15,000 Soviet soldiers had been killed.

In March, gunmen killed 145 people at a concert hall outside Moscow in an attack claimed by Islamic State. US officials said they had intelligence indicating it was the Afghan branch of the group, Islamic State Khorasan (ISIS-K), that was responsible.

However, now the Taliban says it is working to wipe out the presence of Islamic State in Afghanistan. But, Western diplomats say the movement’s path towards wider international recognition is stalled until it changes course on women’s rights.

The Taliban has closed high schools and universities to girls and women and placed restrictions on their movement without a male guardian. It says it respects women’s rights in line with its strict interpretation of Islamic law.

Damascus:

As Syria’s new transitional Prime Minister Mohammad al-Bashir took charge and called for “stability and calm” in the country, Israel carried out over 350 airstrikes targeting weapons stockpiles and strategic infrastructure in the Middle Eastern country over the past 48 hours. The Hayat Tahrir al-Shams (HTS) led rebels, who toppled President Bashar al-Assad three days ago, appointed Mohammad al-Bashir as the transitional head of government to run the country until March 1. 

Mr al-Bashir, a figure little known across most of Syria ran the rebel-led Salvation Government in a pocket of the northwest controlled by rebels before their 12-day lightning offensive swept into Damascus.

In his first interview since being appointed, Mr Bashir told Qatar’s Al Jazeera television, “Now it is time for this people to enjoy stability and calm.”

Israel Strikes Syria

Israeli Defense Forces (IDF), in a statement posted to X, said it has carried out more than 350 airstrikes targeting weapons stockpiles and strategic infrastructure in Syria over the past 48 hours.

The targets included Syrian Navy facilities at Al-Bayda port and Latakia port, Syrian Air Force airfields, dozens of weapons production sites in Damascus, Homs, Tartus, Latakia, and Palmyra, numerous anti-aircraft batteries, drones, aircraft, tanks, scud missiles, cruise missiles, surface-to-sea, surface-to-air, surface-to-surface missiles, UAVs, fighter jets, attack helicopters, radars, hangars, and more.

The IDF said it “conducted air strikes on 130 assets in Syria, including weapons depots, military structures, launchers, and firing positions.”

Earlier on Tuesday, Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz said that in overnight strikes the Syrian navy fleet was wiped out and Israeli troops were “establishing themselves” at the buffer zone between Syria and the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.

Turkish Strikes

Meanwhile, the Turkish intelligence agency is also attacking targets in Syria. On Tuesday, Turkish security officials said their intelligence agency attacked a convoy of trucks allegedly carrying missiles, heavy weapons and ammunition that were abandoned by the Syrian government and reportedly seized by Syrian Kurdish militias, according to a report by The Guardian.

As per the report, 12 trucks, two tanks and two ammunition depots were “destroyed” in aerial strikes in the city of Qamishli, near the Turkish border.

US Urges ‘Inclusive’ Process For New Syrian Govt

The outgoing US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has urged all nations to support an “inclusive” political process in Syria, saying the United States would eventually recognize a government if it meets such standards. “The Syrian people will decide the future of Syria. All nations should pledge to support an inclusive and transparent process and refrain from external interference,” Mr Blinken said in a statement.

“The United States will recognize and fully support a future Syria government that results from this process,” he added.

The US Secretary of State said that the future government of Syria should be “credible, inclusive and non-sectarian” after Islamist rebels toppled strongman Bashar al-Assad, a member of the Alawite minority who led a secular dictatorship. 

HTS’s Message To The World

HTS commander Ahmed al-Sharaa, aka Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, has urged foreign countries to not fear Syria after Bashar al-Assad’s regime was overthrown. Speaking to American broadcaster Sky News, Jolani, said, “Their (West’s) fears are unnecessary, God willing”.

“The country will be rebuilt,” he said, adding, “The fear was from the presence of the regime. The country is moving towards development and reconstruction. It’s going towards stability.”

He continued: “People are exhausted from war. So the country isn’t ready for another one and it’s not going to get into another one. The source of our fears was from the Iranian militias, Hezbollah and the regime which committed the massacres we are seeing today. So their removal is the solution for Syria. The current situation won’t allow for a return to panic.”

UN To Consider Taking HTS Off Terrorist List

The United Nations said it would consider removing Hayat Tahrir al-Sham from its designated terrorist list if it passes the key test of forming a truly inclusive transitional government, according to a report by The Guardian. 

Quoting Geir Pedersen, UN special envoy for Syria, the report said the UN would consider the proposal if the group could not seek to govern Syria in the way that it had governed Idlib, the northern province where it was based and from where it led the military breakout. 

“We have to be honest and look at the facts. It has been nine years since that resolution was adopted and the reality so far is that HTS and other armed groups have been sending good messages to the Syrian people of unity and inclusiveness. In Hama and Aleppo, there have been reassuring things on the ground…My message is Syria cannot be run like Idlib.” he said.

75 Indians Evacuated From Syria 

India on Tuesday evacuated 75 Indian nationals from Syria, two days after rebel forces overthrew President Bashar Assad’s authoritarian government. The evacuation, coordinated by the embassies of India in Damascus and Beirut, was put into effect following an assessment of the security situation, the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) said.

“The Government of India today evacuated 75 Indian nationals from Syria, following recent developments in that country,” it said in a late-night statement.

“The evacuees included 44 ‘zaireen’ from Jammu and Kashmir who were stranded at Saida Zainab. All Indian nationals have safely crossed over to Lebanon and will return by available commercial flights to India,” it said.

A drone view shows buildings in Damascus, after Syrian rebels ousted President Bashar al-Assad, Syria December 10, 2024
| Photo Credit: Reuters

The Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the Syrian Islamist militant group, had been preparing for months for a large-scale offensive against regime forces. The civil war was quiet for years, particularly after the regime of President Bashar al-Assad captured most of its lost territories — including Aleppo, Hama and Homs. The HTS, formerly al-Nusra Front, the Syrian arm of al-Qaeda, had built a statelet in Idlib, in northwestern Syria, under the leadership of its ‘emir’, Abu Muhammed al-Jolani. The HTS and its ally Syrian National Army (SNA), formerly the Free Syrian Army, had informed Turkiye, their patron, at least six months ago about the offensive plan, according to a Reuters report. And Ankara had given its tacit approval.

Mr. Assad’s troops were in a bad shape. Soldiers were poorly paid and lacked motivation. The country never recovered from the scars of the civil war. Under crippling American sanctions, its finances were in shambles. During the peak of the civil war, in 2015-16, Mr. Assad had heavily relied on his external allies for security — Russia, Iran and Hezbollah. Now, the situation was different. The Russians were focused on Ukraine. Iran lost a host of its Syria commanders to Israeli strikes. Hezbollah had been weakened in a year-long war with Israel. The HTS launched its offensive on November 27, the day Israel and Lebanon signed a ceasefire. On the 12th day, the Assad regime fell, sending tremors across the region.

Offensive begins

When they launched the offensive, the militants’ initial target was the western suburbs of Aleppo, Syria’s second largest city which Mr. Assad’s forces recaptured in 2016, after four years of a brutal battle. When HTS and SNA militants advanced towards Aleppo, they faced little resistance from government forces. Within four days, they reached Aleppo’s city centre.

The rapid collapse of government forces in Aleppo stunned both the militants and the regime alike. And Mr. Assad’s allies took note of it. The HTS’s victory triggered rebellion elsewhere in the country. In the south, local militias, who were backed by Jordan, started attacking government positions. In the northeast, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a Kurdish militia, started advancing towards the eastern city of Deir Ezzour. The HTS, the main militant group, marched south from Aleppo towards Hama. On December 5, they entered Hama. Mr. Assad’s forces did not fight back. Some of them crossed the border to Iraq, seeking refuge. Others abandoned their uniforms and fled. The militants raided military depots and grabbed more weapons, making their position stronger. Mr. Assad turned to Iran and Russia for help. But Syrian and other Arab officials say both Russia and Iran told the Syrian President that they could not help him much this time. Iran, according to some reports, evacuated its personnel from Syria.

Shrinking circle

Mr. Assad’s circle was shrinking. His troops are not fighting back. He is not getting any external help. The militants are on a march from multiple fronts. From Hama, the HTS advanced towards Homs, a strategically important city that sits at an intersection between Syria’s Mediterranean coast and Damascus, the seat of power. If Homs falls, Damascus would be cut off from Mr. Assad’s coastal stronghold. On December 7, HTS-linked militants entered Homs, Syria’s third largest city. The next day, the Southern Front, militants from the south who had already taken Daara, entered Damascus first, followed by the HTS. Syria’s Prime Minister Muhammad al-Jalali said he would ensure a peaceful transition of power. The army chief said Mr. Assad’s government was over, bringing the almost 60-year rule of the Arab Socialist Ba’ath Party in Syria to a dramatic end. Later in the day, Russia said Mr. Assad and his family were in Moscow and granted political asylum.

Different rebel groups

The fall of the regime leaves a huge vacuum in Syria. Until December 8, the opposition militias had a common enemy–’Assad the tyrant’. Now, they are facing each other while trying to expand their influence. Roughly, there are four rebel coalitions in Syria. One, the HTS, led by Jolani. It is the most prominent one. HTS telegram channels already call him ‘President’ Shara, referring to his real name, Ahmed Hussein al-Shara. The HTS has built a statelet in Idlib and some 25,000 soldiers under its command. But that’s not enough to run a vast country like Syria. But the HTS certainly wants to play a key role in the new Syria, and has sent reconciliatory messages to the country’s different sects and militias. The SAA, another northern militia, is an ally of the HTS and a proxy of Turkiye.

Two, local militias in the south. They would not like to give up their privileges. That they entered Damascus first was a clear message to Jolani that he was not the only ‘rebel’ in the game. Three, the SDF, the Kurdish militia. In the northeast, the Kurds have enjoyed relative autonomy since the beginning of the civil war. But Turkiye was alarmed by the Kurds’s growing strengths and had launched incursions into Syria in the past, grabbing territories on the border. The SDF would not like to give up their autonomy, which could put them on a collision course with the HTS and the SAA, the Turkish backed groups. And lastly, there are Alawites, Mr. Assad’s sect who live mostly in the mountainous coastal regions of Latakia and Tartus, and enjoyed power for nearly 50 decades. The Alawites were the backbone of the Syrian army. They are unlikely to immediately trust Jolani, a committed Salafi Islamist militant, whose group in the past had carried out targeted attacks against Alawites.

Syria is a diverse country. It now has a diverse set of militias, without a central authority. And then there are external players. Turkiye, as the main supporter of northern militias (HTS and SAA), would seek to extend its influence in the government formation. Jordan would like to see the southern militias getting their due. The Gulf Arabs, who are wary of both Islamists and Turkiye, would be alarmed by the developments. Iran risks losing its territorial link with Hezbollah. Russia’s primary objective would be to safeguard its Tartus naval base and Khmeimim air base. And Israel has already sent troops to capture land in Syria’s Golan Heights and is carrying out massive air strikes aimed at destroying the Syrian army’s military capabilities.

New Delhi:

In another setback to President Bashar al-Assad’s hold on power, the Syrian government forces have lost control of Daraa city, widely regarded as the birthplace of Syria’s 2011 civil uprising.

Syrian Islamist rebels, spearheaded by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), launched a massive offensive against President Bashar al-Assad’s regime this past week. This surprise assault, the largest in years, has led to the capture of over 50 towns and villages in northern Syria and “large parts” of Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city.

HTS and allied rebel forces advanced rapidly from their base in Idlib, Syria’s last major opposition stronghold. By Friday, they entered western Aleppo, facing minimal resistance as Assad’s troops retreated. The offensive lead to fierce retaliation, including Russian airstrikes on Aleppo – Russia’s first in the city since 2016 – killing 277, including 28 civilians.

What is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)?

HTS began in 2011 as Jabhat al-Nusra, an Al Qaeda affiliate, and was known for its effectiveness and brutality. “Hayat Tahrir al-Sham” translates to “Organisation for the Liberation of the Levant”. Initially aligned with the Free Syrian Army in the uprising against Assad, its strict jihadist ideology soon alienated it from other rebel factions.

Abu Mohammed al-Golani, a former leader of Jabhat al-Nusra, heads HTS. The group follows a Salafi-jihadist ideology, focusing on toppling Assad’s government and establishing Islamic rule within Syria. Unlike al-Qaeda, HTS claims “local goals” rather than pursuing a global Islamic Caliphate.

In 2016, the group’s leader severed ties with Al Qaeda and rebranded the organisation, which later evolved into HTS after merging with other Islamist groups. Since then, HTS has operated as the dominant force in Idlib, controlling a population of four million, many of whom were displaced during Assad’s military campaigns. 

HTS: Governance

Unlike the self-proclaimed Islamic State, HTS shifted its focus from global jihad to establishing fundamentalist Islamic rule within Syria. This localised ambition has allowed HTS to consolidate power in Idlib, where it functions as a de facto government. However, allegations of human rights abuses and bitter infighting with rival factions have tainted its reputation.

HTS governs parts of Syria through the Syrian Salvation Government (SSG), delivering essential services like food aid and welfare programmes to approximately four million residents in its territories. The group controls critical resources, including the Bab al-Hawa border crossing with Turkey, which facilitates humanitarian aid.

For years, HTS avoided large-scale military campaigns, seemingly content with its stronghold in Idlib. The recent offensive in Aleppo, however, signals a shift in strategy.

Idlib has remained a bastion of resistance against Assad since the early years of the conflict. A fragile ceasefire brokered by Russia and Turkey in 2020 allowed HTS to strengthen its grip on the province. Yet, Aleppo’s history as a major battleground – where rebels suffered one of their greatest defeats – adds symbolic weight to the current offensive.