The political landscape in Sri Lanka is set to change as its citizens elect a new President on Saturday. Sri Lanka’s 17 million voters will choose from among 39 candidates in the country’s first election after the people’s uprising of 2022, which led to then President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s ouster.

This year’s election is dominated by two major alliances, the SJB (Samagi Jana Balawegaya) and the NPP (National People’s Power), apart from various smaller parties and independent candidates.

President Ranil Wickremesinghe of the UNP (United National Party) is contesting as an independent. Wickremesinghe, popularly known as RW, is being supported by many rebel legislators of the SLPP (Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna) headed by former president Mahinda Rajapaksa. Also in the contest are opposition leader Sajith Premadasa from the SJB alliance; leftist leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake of the JVP (Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna) – the presidential candidate of NPP – and Mahinda’s son, Namal Rajapaksa, as the SLPP candidate.

Poll surveys and experts suggest that Lankan voters are prioritising issues such as economy, education, health, law, and security. Matters of corruption and wrongdoing among politicians, which dominated the electoral narrative, have receded into the background after the 2022 unrest. Since most governments in the past didn’t solve the corruption issue, people feel it’s better to talk about development. They hope to elect a leader who can pull them out of dire poverty.

Gloomy past

In the last election, held after the Easter bombings on April 21, 2019, Gotabaya Rajapaksa of SLPP (Namal’s uncle) won a decisive victory and Sajith Premadasa came second. However, three years later, the world saw Sri Lankans oust President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, having endured a steady economic slide. The flawed economic and monetary policies of Gotabaya, along with the COVID-19 pandemic that dented tourism – a chunk of the economy – resulted in an unsustainable debt level. In April 2022, Sri Lanka defaulted on its debt and asked the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for assistance. The Russia-Ukraine war further aggravated the crisis with rising food, medicine and fuel prices resulting in mass protests never seen before in the country’s history.

The uprising was given the name of ‘Janatha Aragalaya‘ (a Sinhala term). Then Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa resigned and subsequently, his brother Gotabaya Rajapaksa quit as President and fled. Ranil Wickremesinghe, a former minister, became Prime Minister. In July 2022, Ranil took over as president through a parliamentary vote with the support of the Rajapaksas’ party SLPP, which still has the majority in the legislature. Ranil Wickremesinghe adopted severe austerity measures, with support from the IMF.

New leaders

Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s inept governance and his decision to leave the country tarred the image of the Rajapaksa clan and the SLPP the most. Most SLPP MPs are supporting either Ranil or Sajith in this election. Namal Rajapaksa, they say, is just a symbolic candidate to keep the SLPP alive.

Sajith’s SJB has the support of the Tamil and Muslim minorities, who form 11% and 9% of the population.

Though Tamil parties have fielded a common candidate, the largest party ITAK (Ilankai Tamil Arasu Kachchi) has extended its support to Sajith Premadasa. In 2019 also, Tamils had voted for Sajith but there was an unprecedented consolidation of Sinhala votes behind Gotabhaya Rajapaksa after the Easter bombings, which helped him win the election.

The political space created by Rajapaksas’ dismissal was filled by Anura Kumara Dissanayake and the JVP, who urged Sri Lankans to go for a broader change. Once in the margins, the party has emerged as a credible, major political force.

As far as Ranil Wickremesinghe is concerned, most members of his party UNP are now with Sajith, though he has support from some legislators of the SLPP like state Defence Minister Premitha Bandara Tennakoon. Ranil is banking on his handling of the economic crisis to fetch him votes.

“People want change this time. They don’t want to vote for the same party and old candidates. The new voters, especially on social media, are rooting for Anura Dissanayake. However, on the ground Sajith has a lot of support base, especially in the rural areas,” says Thushara Gooneratne, editor-in-chief, Mawrata News.

“Most people think of Sajith as pro-poor just like his father, former President R Premadasa.”

India’s Stake

In recent times, anti-India sentiment has surged in the neighbourhood, because of various reasons. Be it Nepal, Maldives, Sri Lanka or Bangladesh, politicians have been successful in diverting the people’s ire towards India.

For India, the sorry plight of the Tamil population in the north and east of Sri Lanka has been a concern for a long time. Successive Lankan governments have failed to implement the 13th Amendment signed as part of India-Sri Lanka agreement in 1987, which provided for devolution of powers to local governments in the north and the east. India, in fact, raised the Sri Lankan Tamil issue at the 51st session of the United Nations Human Rights Council in Geneva in 2022. With the new government, India would like to push for the restoration of provincial councils, which would give a measure of autonomy to Lankan Tamils.

India has stakes in a stable and peaceful Sri Lanka. It wants to restrict China’s growing interference in the country because of its geo-strategic location in the Indo-Pacific. The 99-year lease of Hambantota port to China in 2017, feeding the debt-trap narrative, has exacerbated India’s concerns.

Anura Dissanayake’s party has often been seen as close to China, India’s principal geopolitical rival. But for some time now, Dissanayake has enjoyed a different kind of authority within Sri Lankan politics, which has in turn earned him recognition as a rising political force even from India’s point of view. As a reflection of this, New Delhi invited Dissanayake in February to engage with him.

“Whoever wins this time will engage with India. Sajith is pro-India. But even Dissanayake, who was known to be anti-India before. India is important for Sri Lanka’s growth and stability,” says Thushara.

India needs all the goodwill it can command in order to navigate the increasing complexities in the neighbourhood, The escalating regional conflicts and a continuous shift in the global economic order. A friendly, stable neighbourhood is a good start.

Sri Lanka’s former Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa and his brother, and Sri Lanka’s former President, Gotabaya Rajapaksa.
| Photo Credit: REUTERS

Sri Lanka’s powerful Rajapaksa clan, which suffered political battering due to the country’s worst economic crisis in 2022, will launch its political comeback bid on Sunday by targeting the impending elections.

Former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, ex-Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa and former Finance Minister Basil Rajapaksa were ousted from power during anti-government protests following the crippling financial and political crisis in 2022.

The ruling Sri Lanka People’s Front of the Rajapaksas, commonly known by its Sinhalese name Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP), will hold a public rally later in the day in the north central rural town of Thalawa, party member and former Minister SM Chandrasena told reporters.

He said that Mahinda Rajapaksa would inaugurate the rally, aiming to prepare the party grassroots for the major elections — the presidential or the parliamentary.

“We will start our campaign to gear the party for whatever the election that comes first,” Mr. Chandrasena said.

According to the Election Act, the presidential election should occur before the parliamentary elections. The next parliamentary election is not due before August 2025.

On Wednesday, President Ranil Wickremesinghe reiterated his intention to hold the presidential election this year ahead of the parliamentary election.

The SLPP, however, wants the parliamentary election ahead of the scheduled 2025 date.

Earlier this month, the Elections Commission said the presidential election would be conducted at a date between September 17 and October 16.

The SLPP is yet to announce its candidate, while the two major opposition camps have already announced their presidential candidates.

The SLPP went into hiding after the massive street protests began in early 2022, which caused the resignation of the then-President Gotabaya Rajapaksa.

The SLPP was forced to elect arch-rival Wickremesinghe to serve the balance term of Gotabaya Rajapaksa.

One of the SLPP Members of Parliament was killed by an angry mob. The properties of nearly 100 other party seniors were set on fire in the outpouring of public outrage over their inability to handle the economic crisis.

Demonstrators take part in a ritual of boiling milk to mark the Shinala and Tamil New Year during their protest against Sri Lankan President Gotabaya Rajapaksa in front of the Presidential secretariat, amid the country’s economic crisis in Colombo, Sri Lanka, on April 14, 2022. File
| Photo Credit: Reuters

Sri Lanka’s government-backed traditional astrologers have failed to unanimously agree on dates for Sinhala, Tamil New Year rituals, with squabbling seers warning of “disaster” and accusing rivals of misinterpreting the position of stars.

Astrologers are hugely influential figures consulted by both the island’s Buddhist and Hindu communities and their advice for auspicious dates guides everything from marriages to business deals — and even national elections.

But the 42-member group of astrologers employed by the island’s Cultural Affairs Ministry said they were split for the first time on deciding the best date for New Year celebrations.

“We discussed very deeply. After a lot of deliberations, we finalised the auspicious time through a majority decision,” said Ananda Seneviratne, the spokesman for the New Year auspicious time committee. The majority set the dawn of the traditional Sinhala and Tamil New Year on the night of April 13.

But dissenting seer Roshan Chanaka said the time was wrong and would lead the country into “disaster”. “Sri Lanka “will go up in flames” if the “official times” are followed,” he added, without giving further details.

Sri Lanka is emerging from its worst economic crisis, which led to months of street protests and forced then President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to resign in July 2022. His successor, President Ranil Wickremesinghe is widely expected to run for re-election in polls later this year, potentially between September and October.

Nearly a decade ago, former President Mahinda Rajapaksa called a snap election in January 2015 based on the date advised by his personal astrologer. He lost the polls.

Copies of the ‘The Conspiracy’ book written by toppled Sri Lankan president Gotabaya Rajapaksa, are on display at a bookshop in Colombo on March 7, 2024.
| Photo Credit: AFP

 

Two years after his dramatic ouster from office by a popular people’s movement, Sri Lanka’s former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa has sought to defend his tainted regime, by launching a book that attributes his political downfall to a “conspiracy” involving foreign and local parties.

Announcing his book ‘The Conspiracy to oust me from the Presidency’ on March 6, Mr. Gotabaya said in a statement: “From the time I was elected President in November 2019, certain foreign and local parties were intent on removing me from power.”

During Mr. Gotabaya’s Presidency from November 2019 to July 2022, Sri Lanka experienced its worst economic crisis since Independence in 1948, as the country ran out of dollars for essential imports, following a host of fiscal decisions taken by his government. Citizens spent days in long queues, struggling to access basic food items, cooking gas, and medicines, while grappling with prolonged power cuts in their homes. Holding his government responsible for their suffering, people from diverse backgrounds took to the streets in a historic protest along capital Colombo’s seafront and in several other district across the island nation.

They relentlessly agitated with the demand “Gota go home”, eventually forcing the besieged leader to flee the country and subsequently resign in July 2022, less than three years since he was elected President, and barely two years after his pulled together a formidable majority in Parliament.

In a significant judgment last year, Sri Lanka’s Supreme Court reiterated the position held by the citizens’ movement, ruling that the Rajapaksa brothers — Mr. Gotabaya, Mahinda Rajapaksa, Basil Rajapaksa — along with top officials in their government, “demonstrably contributed” to the 2022 economic crisis and “violated public trust”. However, taking no responsibility for the country’s financial collapse, Mr. Gotabaya squarely blamed “conspiratorial forces” for his removal from office. “What this book explains is the firsthand experience of an internationally sponsored regime change operation,” he said in the statement.

In an excerpt from Mr. Gotabaya’s self-published book, featured in local portal Newswire, the widely discredited leader attempts to reconstruct the last moments of his Presidency as he saw them, before he fled the island and took refuge in the Maldives first, and Singapore later. “The plan was to fly to Singapore in a private plane, but the Indian authorities had not allowed this private plane to fly to Male. So, I gave instructions that tickets be obtained on a commercial flight to Singapore,” Mr. Gotabaya writes.

Later, in a reference to the time he took the decision to resign while in Singapore, Mr. Gotabaya writes that he had, by then, decided Mr. Wickremesinghe would be his successor, “because I saw him as the only person capable of restoring law and order in the country.” On July 20, 2022, Ranil Wickremesinghe was elected President through an urgent parliamentary vote, in which the Rajapaksas’ party, the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP or People’s Front) backed him. Mr. Gotabaya returned to Sri Lanka in September 2022, after seven weeks in Singapore. He lives in a state bungalow in Colombo with special security accorded to him by the Wickremesinghe administration.

Meanwhile, Sri Lankan newspaper Daily Mirror reported that Mr. Basil, the SLPP’s strategist, is scheduled to meet with President Wickremesinghe and former President Mr. Mahinda Thursday evening to discuss a possible alliance for the presidential polls and general elections scheduled later this year.

Sri Lankan President Ranil Wickremesinghe. File
| Photo Credit: AP

Sri Lanka hopes to avoid repaying debt till December 2027 after the completion of the ongoing restructuring process and repay them in the period running up to 2042, President Ranil Wickremesinghe said on March 5, as he defended his unpopular reform plans to revive the bankrupt economy.

Sri Lanka is currently stuck with debt restructuring with negotiations taking a long to reach an agreement. “By 2022, Sri Lanka had to meet external debt repayments worth six billion per year. It is 9.5% of the GDP and an amount hard to sustain,” he said.

“We hope to reduce this to 4.5% of the GDP by debt restructuring”, Mr. Wickremesinghe, also the cash-strapped island nation’s Finance Minister, stressed.

“Currently, we are actively engaged in discussions regarding the restructuring of all loans including domestic and foreign loans. We are optimistic that these negotiations will reach a successful resolution soon. Our goal is to obtain temporary relief from debt defaults from 2023 to 2027. Subsequently, we plan to diligently work towards repaying the loans in the period from 2027 to 2042”.

He said if the country was able to maintain the economic momentum gained since 2022 after the economic crisis, the state revenue could be maintained at a higher level making it easy for the debt repayment. He said through his unpopular hard economic reforms the state revenue collection had been raised to 11% of the GDP.

“For this, we had to impose Value Added Tax (VAT) which was a very painful decision to make. It was a tough decision but to overcome this economic ailment we have to suffer temporarily”. Mr. Wickremesinghe said despite hardships the country has reached a degree of stability.

”The critics say despite stability the people don’t feel it, people have been made to suffer heavy tax burdens, electricity and fuel prices have been raised to make them unbearable for the public,” he said.

He said the current success was due to the planning jointly made with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to bring in economic stability.

Sri Lanka in the second quarter of 2022 had declared bankruptcy announcing the island’s first ever sovereign default. Negotiations with the IMF for a bailout began almost immediately and the first tranche of the $2.9 billion facility was released in March 2023.

The IMF under its bailout facility over four years has compelled Sri Lanka to set in hard reforms to revive its bankrupt economy. Total Central Government external debt as of the end of December 2023 amounted to $37.3 billion, according to the Ministry of Finance.

According to the Central Bank of Sri Lanka, the top three bilateral creditor countries are China, 43%, Japan 23% and India 15%. Additionally, there are international sovereign bondholders who represent 85% of the commercial debt category.

In April 2022, Sri Lanka declared its first-ever sovereign default since gaining independence from Britain in 1948. The crisis led Mr. Wickremesinghe’s predecessor Gotabaya Rajapaksa out of office through a campaign of public agitation. Mr. Wickremesinghe stepped in to fill in Rajapaksa’s remaining term till 2024.

Wang Wenbin. File
| Photo Credit: ANI

Sri Lanka on October 11 welcomed China’s tentative agreement to a debt restructure, as the island nation works to restore its ruined finances after suffering its worst-ever economic crisis.

The government defaulted on its $46 billion debt last year at a time when months of food and fuel shortages were making life a misery for Sri Lanka’s 22 million people.

Beijing is the island’s largest bilateral lender and its consent is needed for any proposal by Colombo to reorganise its finances.

Deputy Finance Minister Ranjith Siyambalapitiya said approval had now been granted by the state-owned Export-Import Bank of China, its official creditor. “China has issued their primary consent to restructure our debt,” he said in a statement.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin told reporters on Tuesday that the bank had “tentatively agreed” with Sri Lanka on its debt treatment in late September.

“We are also glad to see that other creditors are having discussions with Sri Lanka as well over solutions to its debt issue,” he added. Neither party shared further details of the agreement.

China holds about 52% of the South Asian nation’s bilateral credit, with Japan and India the next-biggest lenders. Beijing had in March given in-principle agreement to a restructure of its loans to Sri Lanka, the final major creditor to do so.

That decision cleared the way for a staged $2.9 billion International Monetary Fund bailout, conditional on austerity measures such as tax hikes and cuts to generous public subsidies.

But a second tranche of $330 million was delayed last month, with the IMF saying it was still reviewing “financing assurances” from creditors on the detailed debt restructure plan Colombo proposed in June.

Sri Lanka’s central bank governor Nandalal Weerasinghe is this week in Morocco for a meeting with creditor nations and the IMF that does not include China.

“The IMF’s Sri Lanka mission chief Peter Breuer said the lender had “not yet been informed about any specific agreements” with creditors,” Bloomberg reported.

At the peak of last year’s crisis, months of civil unrest forced the ouster of then President Gotabaya Rajapaksa when protesters stormed his residence.

Ranil Wickremesinghe. File
| Photo Credit: AP

Dismissing the possibility of an international probe into the 2019 Easter terror attacks, Sri Lankan President Ranil Wickremesinghe has reiterated that such an investigation into the incident was not permissible under the country’s law.

Responding to Sunday’s editorial in the Catholic Church’s Messenger newspaper titled “An international investigation team is needed for an independent, transparent, and thorough investigation and monitoring”, the President’s Media Division (PMD) said, “We cannot endorse the idea of international investigations into Sri Lanka’s internal matters.” “The Constitution of Sri Lanka and all other existing laws do not provide for conducting international investigations. Consequently, carrying out such investigations would be in violation of the law,” a press release by the PMD said on October 6.

Nine suicide bombers belonging to the local Islamist extremist group National Thawheed Jamaat (NTJ) linked to ISIS carried out a series of devastating blasts that tore through three Catholic churches and as many luxury hotels in Sri Lanka on April 21, 2019, killing nearly 270 people, including 11 Indians, and injuring more than 500.

The issue of the Easter attacks and its political undertone resurfaced in early September when the U.K.’s Channel 4 television station aired a documentary titled ‘Sri Lanka’s Easter Bombings – Dispatches’, alleging the involvement and complicity of certain government officials, including intelligence service chief Major General Suresh Sallay, in orchestrating the 2019 Easter suicide bombings.

It called the attacks a “crafted act” aimed at forcing a political change in favour of the then-powerful Rajapaksa brothers.

Gotabaya Rajapaksa announced his candidature three days after the attacks and was elected President seven months later. His elder brother Mahinda Rajapaksa was also the country’s former President and Prime Minister. Both Rajapaksa brothers were forced to resign last year amidst the unprecedented economic crisis in the island nation.

“The Minister of Public Security, Tiran Alles, spoke to the Catholic Bishops Conference on Thursday and was informed that the Rev. Father Harold Anthony was in the process of studying a voluminous presidential commission report on the Easter attack investigation that had been delivered to him in April,” the press release said. It added that Mr. Wickremesinghe would meet the Catholic Bishops conference after they study the report.

During a fiery interview with the German state-owned broadcaster Deutsche Welle (DW) against the backdrop of Channel 4’s allegations last week, Mr. Wickremesinghe dismissed the Channel 4 revelations and said that Sri Lanka will not have any international inquiry into the Easter blasts. “It is out,” he said.

“The Sri Lankan government does not have international investigations. Full stop. Few people may want (it), but the Parliament doesn’t,” he said.

A prime panel headed by retired Supreme Court Justice SI Imam was appointed by Mr. Wickremesinghe to investigate the British channel’s allegations. The Opposition, however, blames the President for going back on his earlier pledge to let Scotland Yard investigate the 2019 attacks.

They claim that Mr. Wickremesinghe is reliant on the support of the Rajapaksas to remain the President and, therefore, would not initiate an inquiry which could expose those behind the attacks. The attacks led to a significant political change in Sri Lanka. It has emerged that the then authorities had ignored prior intelligence on the attack by Indian intelligence agencies.