U.S. President Donald Trump. File
| Photo Credit: Reuters

Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and U.S. President Donald Trump. File
| Photo Credit: Reuters

Even before it was signed, the Gaza ceasefire forced Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into a tight spot — between a new U.S. President promising peace and far-right allies who want war to resume. That tension is only likely to increase.

The stakes for Mr. Netanyahu are high — keeping his coalition government on the one hand and on the other, satisfying U.S. President Donald Trump who wants to use the ceasefire momentum to expand Israel’s diplomatic ties in the West Asia.

One of Netanyahu’s nationalist allies has already quit over the Gaza ceasefire, and another is threatening to follow unless war on Hamas is resumed at an even greater force than that which devastated much of Gaza for 15 months.

The clock is ticking. The first stage of the ceasefire is meant to last six weeks. By day 16 — February 4 — Israel and Palestinian militant group Hamas are due to start negotiating the second phase of the ceasefire, whose stated aim is to end the war.

Former police minister Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Jewish Power party quit the government on Sunday and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said that he will stay in government only if war resumes after the first phase until the total defeat of Hamas, whose October 7, 2023 attack on Israel triggered the war.

‘Need to conquer Gaza”

“We must go back in a completely different style. We need to conquer Gaza, instate a military rule there, even if temporarily, to start encouraging [Palestinian] emigration, to start taking territory from our enemies and to win,” Mr. Smotrich said in an interview with Channel 14 on Sunday.

Mr. Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, however, said on Wednesday he was focused on ensuring the deal moves from the first to second phase, which is expected to include a complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza.

“Netanyahu is pressed between the far-right and Donald Trump,” said political analyst Amotz Asa-El, with the Shalom Hartman Institute in Jerusalem. “Netanyahu’s coalition now is fragile and the likelihood that it will fall apart sometime in the course of 2025 is high.”

Mr. Witkoff told Fox News on Wednesday that he will be on the ground overseeing the ceasefire, a signal that he will keep up the pressure he applied during the deal’s negotiations.

According to six U.S., Israeli, Egyptian and other West-Asian officials, Mr. Witkoff played a crucial role in getting the deal over the line.

Mr. Netanyahu’s balancing act between his far-right allies and the White House stretches beyond Gaza.

Ties with Saudi Arabia

After the ceasefire was struck, Mr. Trump said he would build on the deal’s momentum to expand the Abraham Accords, a series of agreements reached during his first term that saw Israel normalise ties with Gulf Arab countries.

Mr. Trump said on Monday he sees Saudi Arabia joining. That strategic goal is shared by Mr. Netanyahu.

But that cannot happen if war in Gaza is raging, said Eyal Hulata, who headed Israel’s National Security Council from 2021-2023.

Complicating matters further for Netanyahu, Saudi Arabia has made Palestinian statehood a condition for normalising ties with Israel. Mr. Smotrich, and others in Netanyahu’s government, are fiercely opposed to that.

Still, progress with Riyadh may be seen by the year’s end, an Israeli diplomatic official said, though talks on the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire will likely prove difficult.

Around 70% of Israelis support the Gaza deal, according to a poll published by Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies.