Indian government bonds are set to decline on Thursday (March 12, 2026), tracking a spike in crude oil prices and U.S. Treasury yields, while the benchmark bond ‌could see some selling pressure after the central bank did not include the note in its debt ⁠purchase programme.

The benchmark 6.48% 2035 bond yield will likely hover between 6.63% and 6.69%, a private bank trader said. The yield had ‌ended at 6.6366% on Wednesday (March 11, 2026). Bond yields move inversely to prices.

Directionally, bonds should head down, as ‌all indicators favour the bears. Having said that, the ‌central ⁠bank is expected to make its presence felt ⁠in the secondary market, like the last hour of the session yesterday,” the trader said.

An investor category that consists of the Reserve Bank of India, along with other ‌long-term investors, net bought bonds worth ₹53 billion on Wednesday (March 11, 2026), data showed.

Traders estimate a bulk of these purchases would be from the RBI in the benchmark ‌paper, which aided a swift decline in yields.

Oil prices jumped again after staying steady for the last couple of sessions, with the benchmark Brent ⁠Crude contract nearing $100 per barrel after Iraqi security officials said Iranian explosive-laden boats had hit two fuel oil tankers amid other global ‌supply disruptions from the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran. — Reuters