French Prime Minister Michel Barnier arrives to deliver a speech during a debate on two motions of no-confidence against the French government at the National Assembly in Paris, on December 4, 2024.
| Photo Credit: Reuters

France’s current crisis is the second in only six months when French president Emmanuel Macron called a snap election in July to reiterate his government’s strength. However, the move backfired. Ensemble, the alliance that his party headed, won fewer seats than the previous election. The two other main alliances – left alliance New Popular Front and right alliance National Rally – increased their seat tally, with the NPF winning the most seats.

This resulted in a hung parliament, where no party wins a majority of 289 or more seats in the 577-seat Assembly.

Hung Parliament

The results cast uncertainty about the country’s political future. Credit rating agency S&P said in a post-election note that it anticipated a “struggle to implement meaningful policy measures” and “a persistent risk of a vote of no-confidence”, according to Reuters. A hung parliament makes it harder to pass legislation, since decisions have to pass through a broader consensus.

Mr. Macron’s immediate concern after the election was the selection of a Prime Ministerial candidate. In the case of no majority party, this process becomes more complicated.

Selecting the Prime Minister

Since no party won a majority, Mr. Macron had to find a candidate who can withstand no-confidence motions in the future by garnering enough support. After negotiations across the board with both left and right parties, Mr. Macron appointed Michel Barnier, a moderate right-wing politician, as Prime Minister with tentative support from National Rally amidst protest from the NFP alliance. It accused Mr. Macron of “stealing” the elections by ignoring the “will of the people.” ‘

However, even within the left alliance, it was difficult to arrive at a consensus candidate. The transition took more than a month, the longest in several decades.

The process begins again, with Macron having to build support a second time from different parties.

France’s finances

The country’s bleak finances are at the centre of what triggered the no-confidence motion. One economic indicator is budget deficits, which have been over the European Union’s limit of 3% of GDP ever since the pandemic. The EU said in a Council Decision note in July that France’s deficit was excessive because projections showed it was not temporary, and it was not the result of “an unusual event nor from a severe economic downturn” like the pandemic.

Besides fiscal deficit, public debt (as % of GDP) is another measure that overshoots the EU target of 60%.

In this context, Mr. Barnier proposed a budget that would cut €60 billion in spending and increase taxes in a bid to tackle the country’s deficit problem. National Rally leader Le Pen had warned in November that she would oppose any budget that did not address cost-of-living concerns. Increasing tax burden on households, entrepreneurs or pensioners was also opposed. Notably, toppling the government would help her evade looming prosecution for embezzling EU funds.

Moreover, Mr. Barnier pushed the budget without taking it through a parliamentary vote after he could not win the support of National Rally lawmakers. In response, the party’s leader Marine Le Pen voted in support of the no-confidence motion moved by the left parties.

Now that MR. Barnier is set to resign, provisions from this year’s budget will apply next year until a new budget is formulated. However, the timeline for that remains murky in the aftermath of Mr. Barnier’s ouster.

(With inputs from AP and Reuters)

French Prime Minister Michel Barnier reacts after the result of the vote on the first motion of no-confidence against the French government, tabled by the alliance of left-wing parties the “Nouveau Front Populaire” (New Popular Front – NFP).
| Photo Credit: Reuters

France’s far-right and left-wing lawmakers joined together to vote Wednesday (December 4, 2024) a no-confidence motion prompted by budget disputes that forces Prime Minister Michel Barnier to resign.

The National Assembly approved the motion by 331 votes. A minimum of 288 were needed.

President Emmanuel Macron insisted he will serve the rest of his term until 2027. However, he will need to appoint a new prime minister for the second time after July’s legislative elections led to a deeply divided parliament.

Mr. Macron, on his way back from a presidential visit to Saudi Arabia, said discussions about him potentially resigning were “make-believe politics,” according to French media reports.

“I’m here because I’ve been elected twice by the French people,” Mr. Macron said. He was also reported as saying: “We must not scare people with such things. We have a strong economy.”

The no-confidence motion rose from fierce opposition to Mr. Barnier’s proposed budget.

The National Assembly, France’s lower house of parliament, is deeply fractured, with no single party holding a majority. It comprises three major blocs: Macron’s centrist allies, the left-wing coalition New Popular Front, and the far-right National Rally. Both opposition blocs, typically at odds, are uniting against Mr. Barnier, accusing him of imposing austerity measures and failing to address citizens’ needs.

Mr. Barnier, a conservative appointed in September, could become the country’s shortest-serving prime minister in France’s modern Republic.

In last-minute efforts to try to save his government, Mr. Barnier called on lawmakers to act with “responsibility” and think of “the country’s best interest.”

“The situation is very difficult economically, socially, fiscally and financially,” he said, speaking on national television TF1 and France 2 on Tuesday (December 3, 2024) evening. “If the no-confidence motion passes, everything will be more difficult and everything will be more serious.”

Speaking at the National Assembly ahead of the vote, National Rally leader Marine Le Pen, whose party’s goodwill was crucial to keeping Mr. Barnier in power, said, “we’ve reached the moment of truth, a parliamentary moment unseen since 1962, which will likely seal the end of a short-lived government.”

“Stop pretending the lights will go out,” hard-left lawmaker Eric Coquerel said, noting the possibility of an emergency law to levy taxes from Jan. 1, based on this year’s rules. “The special law will prevent a shutdown. It will allow us to get through the end of the year by delaying the budget by a few weeks.”

The National Assembly said the no-confidence motion requires at least 288 of 574 votes to pass. The left and the far-right count over 330 lawmakers – yet some may abstain from voting.

If Mr. Barnier’s Government falls, President Macron must appoint a new prime minister, but the fragmented parliament remains unchanged. No new legislative elections can be held until at least July, creating a potential stalemate for policymakers.

While France is not at risk of a U.S.-style government shutdown, political instability could spook financial markets.

France is under pressure from the European Union to reduce its colossal debt. The country’s deficit is estimated to reach 6% of gross domestic product this year and analysts say it could rise to 7% next year without drastic adjustments. The political instability could push up French interest rates, digging the debt even further.

French Prime Minister Michel Barnier delivers his speech at the National Assembly while France’s minority government may be on its last legs as opposition lawmakers moved this week toward a no-confidence vote, Monday, Dec. 2, 2024 in Paris.
| Photo Credit: AP

France headed into a new political crisis on Tuesday (December 3, 2024) as opposition lawmakers vowed to topple the minority government of Prime Minister Michel Barnier in a no-confidence vote after just three months in office.

A standoff over an austerity budget, which has caused jitters on financial markets, follows months of tension since President Emmanuel Macron appointed the 73-year-old in September.

Far-left party brings no-confidence motion

The far-left France Unbowed (LFI) opposition party said it would bring a no-confidence motion after Mr. Barnier used executive powers on Monday to force through social security legislation without a vote.

Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN), which has demanded changes to the 2025 budget, said it would back the LFI move.

French legislators were expected to vote on the motion Wednesday, with first results around 1900 GMT.

Two no-confidence motions will be put forward. One by the far right is unlikely to pass. Another proposed by the hard-left should go through with backing from RN lawmakers.

“Blocking this budget is, alas, the only way the constitution gives us to protect the French people from a dangerous, unfair and punitive budget,” Le Pen said on X.

Mr. Barnier warned against the move.

France’s situation is “very difficult in economic and social terms,” Mr. Barnier told the National Assembly lower house. The vote would “make everything more difficult and more serious,” he added.

Turbulence intensified political instability

Mr. Macron, currently on a visit to Saudi Arabia, has appeared to be mostly a spectator in the crisis he unleashed by ordering snap elections in June, prompting some voices to question if he should consider resigning.

The turbulence has intensified political instability in the key EU member following the inconclusive elections called by Macron in a bid to halt the rise of the far right.

Mr. Barnier has been under pressure to cut 60 billion euros ($64 billion) off government spending in 2025 in a bid to cut the public-sector deficit to five percent of gross domestic product, from 6.1% of GDP this year.

He has made a number of concessions to the opposition including scrapping plans for a less generous prescription drug reimbursement policy from next year. But Le Pen has still opposed Barnier’s plan.

Le Pen kept asking for concessions and Barnier had not thought she would back a no-confidence motion, a political source said.

“I didn’t think she’d dare,” Mr. Barnier said on Monday, according to the source.

Jockeying for leadership positions has started, with Socialist party boss Olivier Faure saying Macron must “appoint a left-wing prime minister”.

But economists at ING said the likelihood of quickly finding a replacement for Mr. Barnier was “highly uncertain” because the National Assembly is so divided.

People on Macron resigning

In a poll published on Monday, 52% of French people said they favoured Mr. Macron resigning, but were above all concerned about their purchasing power.

“I’m very worried and very upset with the forces on the left and the forces on the far right,” Bertrand Chenu, a 65-year-old retiree, told AFP in Paris.

In Strasbourg, Emmanuel Parisot, 51, said the crisis was Mr. Macron’s fault because he dissolved parliament and called snap polls.

“It’s all the president’s responsibility,” Parisot said. “We don’t know where that’s going to lead.”

If the government falls, it would be the first successful no-confidence vote since a defeat for Georges Pompidou’s government in 1962, when Charles de Gaulle was president.

The lifespan of Barnier’s government would also be the shortest of any administration of France’s Fifth Republic which began in 1958.

Some observers have suggested that Le Pen, 56, is playing a high-risk game and seeking to bring down Macron before his term ends by ousting Barnier.

Le Pen is embroiled in a high-profile embezzlement trial. If found guilty in March, she could be blocked from participating in France’s next presidential election, scheduled for 2027.

If Mr. Macron stepped down soon, an election would have to be called within a month, potentially ahead of the verdict in her trial.

“She could hope, if she won, to be in the Elysee Palace by early February,” said Mujtaba Rahman, managing director for Europe at Eurasia Group.