A shock election win for France’s leftist alliance has reinforced wariness among investors who had already braced for the risk of political deadlock and a policy paralysis that’s unlikely to improve the country’s creaking public finances.

The left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) alliance won the most seats in Sunday’s election, but fell far short of an absolute majority, a big surprise after Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN) led opinion polls.

France, at the centre of the euro project and the bloc’s second biggest economy, still faces a hung parliament and taxing negotiations to form a government as markets had already anticipated – just with the left in pole position, rather than the far-right.

The risk premium, or spread, for holding France’s debt over Germany’s was at 65 basis points on Monday, a touch lower from Friday. It remains below the 12-year high hit in June at 85 bps.

Still, that gap is not expected to tighten again rapidly with concern fixed on what France’s new political climate means for its stretched public finances that have left it facing European Union disciplinary measures.

Debt stood at 110.6% of output in 2023.

“For any budget to be passed in the new assembly, probably at the margin some fiscal loosening is required to get a compromise,” said Kevin Zhao, head of global sovereign and currency at UBS Asset Management, which manages $1.7 trillion in assets.

Market relief proved tentative on Monday. France’s main CAC 40 stocks index, down 3.7% since Macron called the election, rose as much as 0.8% on Monday then gave up all its gain.

Shares in France’s three biggest lenders – BNP Paribas , Societe Generale and Credit Agricole – which have dropped as much as 9.8% since June 9, also reversed earlier gains and were down 0.4%-1.2% at 1418 GMT.

Banks had been hard hit in the run-up to the vote on concerns that higher political uncertainty would translate into increased economic risks and fears of possible windfall taxes.

With the left more than 100 seats short of an absolute majority and President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist grouping in second place, a hung parliament was still seen as the best outcome for investors in French assets, with it expected to limit the left’s spending plans and avert a potential budget-driven market crisis.

The NFP’s plans include scrapping Macron’s pension reform raising the minimum wage and capping the prices of key goods.

It says the costs of its program would be offset by measures including tax increases.

But some investors had deemed an NFP absolute majority a bigger threat to markets than the RN, as the left alliance has said it doesn’t plan to reduce France’s high budget deficit.

“When you look at the composition of the parliament, the bar for the far-left to start doing anything market unfriendly is very, very high,” said Gabriele Foa, portfolio manager at Algebris Investments, noting that the more moderate Socialists won a sizable share of the NFP seats.

Possibilities for a new government include the NFP forming a minority government, Macron peeling off Socialists and Greens from the NFP to isolate Jean-Luc Melenchon’s far-left France Unbowed for a coalition with his own bloc, or a technocratic government.

NO RESPITE

Still, a hung parliament was not seen by investors as good news for France’s public finances and investors expected the country’s budget deficit – at 5.5% of output last year – to stay elevated.

Melenchon said the NFP would execute its programme, while Socialist leader Olivier Faure said Mr. Macron’s pension reform must be cancelled.

S&P Global Ratings warned on Monday that France’s credit rating, which it recently downgraded, would come under pressure if economic growth falls short of projections or the budget deficit cannot be reduced.

Analysts do not expect the French/German bond spread to return to the roughly 50 bps level seen before Macron called the election.

“To be able to step (back into) French debt, will mean that we have guarantees from the government that they are taking good decisions to restore the fiscal and budgetary balances,” said Matthieu de Clermont, head of insurance and regulatory strategies at Allianz Global Investors.

“I’m not sure we’ll get that any time soon.”

Some investors said the French-German spread could widen again if uncertainty drags on, raising the cost for France to borrow on international bond markets relative to its neighbours, potentially increasing pressure on the budget.

“The biggest risk other than near-term headlines is what happens with the EDP and negotiations with the European Commission,” said Schroders fund manager James Ringer, referring to the EU’s budgetary discipline measures.

Investors remained cautious on French assets as they said it was too early to gauge what a new government would look like. The risk of another election in a year’s time is not ruled out.

“It is probably going to take weeks, if not months, before Macron and others sort out their alliances.” said Anders Persson, chief investment officer, head of global fixed income at Nuveen, which manages $1.2 trillion in assets.

He remains underweight French government bonds.

A coalition on the left that came together unexpectedly ahead of France’s snap elections won the most parliamentary seats in the vote, according to polling projections. The surprise projections put President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist alliance in second and the far right in third.
| Photo Credit: AP

French parties sought to project strength and gather allies on July 9, with the government adrift following an election in which no one political force claimed a clear majority.

Having defied expectations to top the polls, new MPs from the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) alliance began showing up to visit their new workplaces in parliament ahead of a first session on July 18.

But the coalition of Greens, Socialists, Communists and the hard-left France Unbowed (LFI) is still debating over who to put forward as a potential Prime Minister and whether it could be open to working in a broader coalition.

Combined, the left-leaning parties hold 193 of 577 seats in the National Assembly and are well short of the 289-seat threshold for a majority.

Nevertheless, members plan to name a potential Prime Minister “by the end of the week,” leading LFI figure Mathilde Panot said.

In the French system, the President nominates the Prime Minister, who must be able to survive a confidence vote in parliament — a tricky proposition with three closely-balanced political forces in play.

Also Read | France President Emmanuel Macron bid to reshape political landscape leaves no clear path to form new government

Any left-leaning government would need “broader support in the National Assembly,” influential Socialist MP Boris Vallaud acknowledged in an interview with broadcaster France Inter.

Mr. Macron’s camp came second in Sunday’s vote, taking 164 seats after voters came together to block the far-right National Rally (RN) from power.

This left the anti-immigration, anti-Brussels outfit in third place with 143 MPs.

The President has kept Prime Minister Gabriel Attal’s government in place for now, hoping horse-trading in the coming days and weeks could leave an opening for him to reclaim the initiative.

However, “there has been an institutional shift. Everyone thinks it’s up to the newly-elected National Assembly to bring forth a solution, which (Mr. Macron) would simply have to accept,” wrote commentator Guillaume Tabard in conservative daily Le Figaro.

‘None can govern alone’

In a sign that some divisions remain, the left parties’ MPs planned to enter the parliament at different times throughout the day.

The Socialists are still hoping to glean a few more members for their group to outweigh LFI and have a greater say over the alliance’s direction.

Meanwhile, members of Mr. Macron’s camp were eyeing both the centre-left Socialists and conservative Republicans as possible allies of convenience for a new centrist-dominated coalition.

“None of the three leading blocs can govern alone,” Stephane Sejourne, head of Mr. Macron’s Renaissance party, wrote in daily Le Monde.

“The centrist bloc is ready to talk to all the members of the republican spectrum,” he added — while naming red lines including that coalition members must support the EU and Ukraine and maintain business-friendly policies.

These requirements, he warned, “necessarily exclude LFI” and its caustic founder Jean-Luc Melenchon.

Markets are paying close attention to the EU’s second-largest economy.

Ratings agency Moody’s warned it could downgrade its credit score for France’s more than three-trillion-euro debt pile if a future government reverses Mr. Macron’s widely-loathed 2023 pension reform, echoing a Monday warning from S&P on the deficit.

What next?

Even as politicians struggle to define the immediate path ahead, eyes are also already turning to the next time French voters will be called to the polls.

Macron’s term expires in 2027 and he cannot run a third time — potentially leaving the way open for his twice-defeated opponent, RN figurehead Marine Le Pen, to finally capture the presidency.

The far-right outfit has been digesting a disappointing result after polls suggested it could take an absolute majority in parliament.

On Tuesday, party sources told AFP its director-general Gilles Penelle had resigned.

Penelle, elected last month to the European Parliament, was the architect of a “push-button” plan supposed to prepare the RN for snap elections, which ultimately failed to produce a full roster of credible candidates.

The far right outfit’s progress is undeniable, having advanced from just eight MPs soon after Mr. Macron’s first presidential win in 2017 to 143 today.

OPINION | ​Resurgent left: On the French elections, European politics

Greens and LFI leaders nevertheless called Tuesday for the RN to be shut out of key parliamentary posts.

“Every time we give them jobs, we increase their competence. It’s important not to give them jobs with responsibilities,” leading LFI lawmaker Mathilde Panot said.

“Today we represent 10 million French people with 143 MPs,” retorted RN representative Thomas Menage, calling the appeal “anti-democratic”.

As for Mr. Macron, he has sought to stay above the fray, planning for a trip to Washington for a NATO summit starting on Wednesday where allies may be in need of reassurance of France’s stability.

France’s President Emmanuel Macron takes a selfie photograph with supporters after casting his vote in the second round of France’s legislative election at a polling station in Le Touquet, northern France on July 7, 2024.
| Photo Credit: AFP

President Emmanuel Macron on July 8 was to start efforts to extract France from its most severe political uncertainty in decades after the left defeated the far right in elections with no group winning an absolute majority.

The outcome of the legislative elections, called by Mr. Macron three years ahead of schedule in a bid to reshape the political landscape, leaves France without any clear path to forming a new government three weeks before the Paris Olympics.

Prime Minister Gabriel Attal is due to submit his resignation to Mr. Macron on July 8 but has also made clear he is ready to stay on in a caretaker capacity as weeks of political uncertainty loom.

The left is emerging as the biggest group in the new parliament but has yet to even agree on a figure who it would want to be the new Prime Minister.

The unprecedented situation is taking shape just as Macron is due to be out of the country for most of the week, taking part in the NATO summit in Washington.

“Is this the biggest crisis of the Fifth Republic?” that began in 1958, asked Gael Sliman, president of the Odoxa polling group.

“Emmanuel Macron wanted clarification with the dissolution, now we are in total uncertainty. A very thick fog.”

Divided parliament

After winning the June 30 first round by a clear margin, the results were a major disappointment for the far-right National Rally (RN) of Marine Le Pen, even if her forces are set to boast about their biggest ever contingent in parliament.

Macron’s centrist alliance will have dozens fewer members of parliament, but held up better than expected and could even end in second.

The left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) — formed last month after Macron called snap elections — brought the previously deeply divided Socialists, Greens, Communists and the hard-left France Unbowed (LFI) together in one camp.

Projections by major polling agencies showed the NFP set to be the largest bloc in the new National Assembly with 177 to 198 seats, Macron’s alliance on 152 to 169 seats and the RN on 135 to 145 seats.

That would put no group near the 289 seats needed for an absolute majority and it remains unclear how a new government could be formed.

Macron, who has yet to speak in public about the projections, is calling for “prudence and analysis of the results”, said an aide, asking not to be named.

LFI lawmaker Clementine Autain called on the NFP alliance to gather on Monday to decide on a suitable candidate for prime minister.

In key individual battles, Le Pen’s sister Marie-Caroline narrowly lost out on being a lawmaker, but former president Francois Hollande will return to frontline politics as a Socialist member of parliament.

‘Muddle’

Firebrand leftist Jean-Luc Melenchon, leader of LFI and the controversial figurehead of the NFP coalition, demanded that the left be allowed to form a government.

Only one week ago, some polls had indicated the RN could win an absolute majority with Le Pen’s 28-year-old lieutenant Jordan Bardella becoming prime minister.

Instead, he expressed fury.

Bardella dubbed the local electoral pacts that saw the left and centrists avoid splitting the anti-RN vote as an “alliance of dishonour”.

He said it had thrown “France into the arms of Jean-Luc Melenchon’s extreme left”.

Le Pen, who wants to launch a fourth bid for the presidency in 2027, declared: “The tide is rising. It did not rise high enough this time, but it continues to rise and, consequently, our victory has only been delayed.”

The first round saw more than 200 tactical-voting pacts between centre and left-wing candidates in seats to attempt to prevent the RN winning an absolute majority.

This has been hailed as a return of the anti-far right “Republican Front” first summoned when Le Pen’s father Jean-Marie faced Jacques Chirac in the run-off of 2002 presidential elections.

The question for France now is if this alliance of last resort can support a stable government, dogged by a still substantial RN bloc in parliament led by Le Pen herself as she prepares a 2027 presidential bid.

Risk analysis firm Eurasia Group said there was “no obvious governing majority” in the new parliament.

“It may take many weeks to resolve the muddle while the present government manages current business.”

Paris:

President Emmanuel Macron has avoided his nightmare scenario of the far right coming to power in France but still faces an unprecedented challenge steering his country and the remainder of his presidency through an uncertain future.

Macron’s centrist forces performed more strongly than expected in the legislative elections, projected to come in second behind the resurgent left, with the far right that won the first round on June 30 in only third place.

Yet as he prepares to fly to the United States for a NATO summit in Washington, he now faces a number of headaches including a left that now believes it has a mandate to govern, his own unpopularity, and open dissent among some of his most influential allies.

There is still palpable anger among Macron’s allies over his decision to call snap legislative elections three years ahead of time after his party was trounced in EU Parliament elections last month.

The president argued that a “clarification” was needed in French politics.

“The decision to dissolve the National Assembly, which was supposed to be a moment of clarification, has instead led to uncertainty,” his former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe said Sunday in an unusually sharp barb.

Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, who said he would offer his resignation Monday but was also prepared to stay on, said in an extraordinary show of dissent after the election that he “did not choose this dissolution”.

‘The question now’

The government’s strategy of employing a so-called Republican Front for the centre and left to team up to block the far right appears to have worked.

But the election will mark a turning point in Macron’s presidency with three years of his term still to run until 2027, with the very mixed new parliament inevitably becoming a far more important actor.

Macron appeared in no hurry on this occasion to make a rapid and theatrical decision, with an aide briefing media that the president preferred to analyse the full results before jumping to conclusions.

The president is confident “and is not going for a small majority”, the aide said. “The question now is who is going to govern and have a majority.”

Philippe raised the prospect of a broad coalition that would take in parties from right to left via the centre, but exclude the far-right National Rally (RN) and the hard-left France Unbowed (LFI).

So far the leftist New Popular Front (NFP) has not fractured even if the LFI’s firebrand figurehead Jean-Luc Melenchon is a constant source of tension.

Foreign Minister Stephane Sejourne, who leads Macron’s party, ruled out that Melenchon “and a certain number of his allies” would govern France.

But Laurent Wauquiez, a senior figure among traditional right-wing lawmakers, who won his seat, appeared to rule out entering into any coalition with Macron.

‘Tide is rising’

Macron’s own popularity has hit such a low that he stayed totally out of the final week of the election campaign, not making a single comment in public as the vastly more popular Attal took the lead.

After voting Sunday he mingled with well-wishers in Le Touquet, but did not repeat his walk through the fashionable Channel resort in a bomber jacket and baseball cap as he did in the June 30 first round, seen as arrogant by some supporters. 

Political manoeuvring will intensify beneath him. Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin, who won his seat, has made it clear he plans to be a leading voice in the new parliament, possibly in alliance with the faction of Philippe.

And while the far right was defeated in these elections, its three-time presidential candidate Marine Le Pen said she believed this would have no impact on her ambition to win the Elysee Palace in 2027.

“The tide is rising. It did not rise high enough this time, but it continues to rise and, consequently, our victory has only been delayed,” Le Pen said.

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

Paris:

French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal said on Sunday he will hand his resignation to President Emmanuel Macron on Monday morning, adding he will carry out his functions as long as required.

Attal made the comments after France’s left-wing New Popular Front coalition won the most seats in the second voting round of parliamentary elections, leading pollsters said on Sunday, putting them on track for an unexpected win over the far right National Rally (RN) party but short of an absolute majority in parliament.

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

Voters wait to enter a polling station at the Petit Poucet nursery school in the Vallee du Tir district of Noumea, in the French Pacific territory of New Caledonia, during the second round of France’s legislative elections on July 7, 2024.
| Photo Credit: AFP

Voting has begun in France on July 7 in pivotal runoff elections that could hand a historic victory to Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally and its inward-looking, anti-immigrant vision — or produce a hung parliament and years of political deadlock.

French President Emmanuel Macron took a huge gamble in dissolving parliament and calling for the elections after his centrists were trounced in European elections on June 9.

The snap elections in this nuclear-armed nation will influence the war in Ukraine, global diplomacy and Europe’s economic stability, and they’re almost certain to undercut President Emmanuel Macron for the remaining three years of his presidency.

The first round on June 30 saw the largest gains ever for the anti-immigration, nationalist National Rally, led by Marine Le Pen.

Sunday’s vote determines which party controls the National Assembly and who will be prime minister. If support is further eroded for Macron’s weak centrist majority, he will be forced to share power with parties opposed to most of his pro-business, pro-European Union policies.

Racism and antisemitism have marred the electoral campaign, along with Russian cybercampaigns, and more than 50 candidates reported being physically attacked — highly unusual for France. The government is deploying 30,000 police on voting day.

The heightened tensions come while France is celebrating a very special summer: Paris is about to host exceptionally ambitious Olympic Games, the national soccer team reached the semifinal of the Euro 2024 championship, and the Tour de France is racing around the country alongside the Olympic torch.

Meanwhile, 49 million voters are in the midst of the country’s most important elections in decades.

France could have its first far-right government since the Nazi occupation in World War II if the National Rally wins an absolute majority and its 28-year-old leader Jordan Bardella becomes prime minister. The party came out on top in the previous week’s first-round voting, followed by a coalition of center-left, hard-left and Green parties, and Macron’s centrist alliance.

The outcome remains highly uncertain. Polls between the two rounds suggest that the National Rally may win the most seats in the 577-seat National Assembly but fall short of the 289 seats needed for a majority. That would still make history, if a party with historic links to xenophobia and downplaying the Holocaust, and long seen as a pariah, becomes France’s biggest political force.

If it wins the majority, Macron would be forced to share power in an awkward arrangement known in France as “cohabitation.”

Another possibility is that no party has a majority, resulting in a hung parliament. That could prompt Macron to pursue coalition negotiations with the center-left or name a technocratic government with no political affiliations.

Both would be unprecedented for modern France, and make it more difficult for the European Union’s No. 2 economy to make bold decisions on arming Ukraine, reforming labor laws or reducing its huge deficit. Financial markets have been jittery since Macron surprised even his closest allies in June by announcing snap elections after the National Rally won the most seats for France in European Parliament elections.

Many French voters, especially in small towns and rural areas, are frustrated with low incomes and a Paris political leadership seen as elitist and unconcerned with workers’ day-to-day struggles. National Rally has connected with those voters, often by blaming immigration for France’s problems, and has built up broad and deep support over the past decade.

Le Pen has softened many of the party’s positions — she no longer calls for quitting NATO and the EU — to make it more electable. But the party’s core far-right values remain. It wants a referendum on whether being born in France is enough to merit citizenship, to curb rights of dual citizens, and give police more freedom to use weapons.

The second-round voting began Saturday in France’s overseas territories from the South Pacific to the Caribbean, Indian Ocean and North Atlantic. The elections wrap up Sunday at 8 p.m. (1800 GMT) in mainland France. Initial polling projections are expected Sunday night, with early official results expected late Sunday and early Monday.

Regardless of what happens, Macron said he won’t step down and will stay president until his term ends in 2027.

Elections herald change in UK with a Labour landslide, but also France and Iran, while the campaign trail hits a shocking turn in the US- Should New Delhi worry about losing friends in high places and how will results change the geopolitical landscape for India?

Hello and Welcome to WorldView at The Hindu with me Suhasini Haidar

If 2024 is the year of elections, with 64 countries going to vote, then the past week is particularly interesting- with 4 of the world’s most prominent leaders watching results of their campaigns closely- US President Biden, Iranian Supreme Leader Khameini, French President Macron….and the biggest loser this week -UK PM Rishi Sunak and the Conservative Party.

They were crushed in a landslide by the Labour Party led by Keir Starmer- that won the biggest mandate since Tony Blair and ended a 14 year-4 term run in office that saw 5 Conservative Prime Ministers from David Cameron to Rishi Sunak

The Labour Party leader Keir Starmer, a former Human Rights lawyer and prosecutor will now lead one of the strongest majorities in the UK Parliament. Another strong showing has come from the ultra-right Reform Party led by Nigel Farage- accused of outright bigotry and a very tough anti-immigration line- which will no doubt drive the new labour government.

What does the UK loss mean for India:

1. Loss of Sunak, Britain’s first Indian-Origin PM

2. The new government will take a different line on immigration – has promised to appoint special prosecutors to crack down illegal immigrants, and sign Returns agreements with countries to send back

3. Labour past policies troubling- and though Starmer has disavowed its past positions on Kashmir and Khalistan, the worries of many Labour MPs advocating anti-India stands remains

4. The India-UK FTA has been in the works for years has not been completed. While the Labour Party is committed to the FTA, the question is, will it reopen the chapters already negotiated. At an India Global Conference, Shadow Minister David Lammy was very optimistic of completing it soon.

Across the channel, France is also seeing a second round of parliamentary elections that may severely dent President Macron’s grip on governance. The elections, which have been called 3 years early were announced after Macron’s Centrist coalition was defeated badly in June’s European Parliament elections by the Right wing National Rally -Rassemblement National. In the first round, Macron’s party came 3rd to both the ultra right RN and the Leftist bloc that combines Socialists, Communists and the Green party. If the RN were to win it would be the first time a right wing party, once accused of being anti semitic and fascist would control the French parliament since world war 2.

What does the right surge mean for India

1. If Macron is weakened by the results, that may impact France India ties too- certainly Macron has been a major friend, stepped in to be Republic Day chief guest this year after US President declined, has signed a number of major agreements with India in past 5 yrs

2. Immigration- France had begun to take a more progressive look at immigration, bring in new policies for students, and make speaking French a more stringent clause

3. RN’s leader Marine Le Pen has advocated a France First economic policy, and while she has softened her anti-EU position, might make the trade negotiations with India that much more difficult

4. Legislative gridlock that could follow from a hung parliament will make every negotiation difficult at a time France and India has growing strategic ties, also on trade, nuclear and renewable energy and defence.

Next, an election we haven’t followed as closely perhaps- in Iran, which is going to polls after a shocking helicopter crash killed its President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister, also after conflict with Israel, and after the major anti-Hijab demonstrations. The first round of these elections had two startling outcomes- a very low turnout of 40%, which is being read as a boycott of polls by an overwhelming number of voters unhappy with the regime. And in the results of the first round, Masoud Pezeshkian, a surgeon who was the Minister of Health and seen as a reformist, one who has advocated more reconciliation with the west won more votes than Khamenei protégé Saeed Jalili, Iran’s former chief nuclear negotiator. 

Here’s what to watch out for in India:

1. A win for Khamenei’s choice Jalili would no doubt signal continuity, and the same policies that India forged with his predecessor- in terms of Chabahar

2. However, Jalili’s win would also mean a continuation of US sanctions on Iran, that are already a cause for worry for India

3. A reformist win could bring in some relief internally in terms of women’s rights -Pezeshkian had publicly criticised the regime for the death of women’s activist Mahsa Amini over not wearing the hijab

4. However, real power remains with the Supreme leader and clergy, so no major policy changes can be expected

Finally, while this election is still months away, the US campaign hit a dramatic note this week in the aftermath of a disastrous drubbing to US President Joseph Biden by former President Donald Trump- with many calling for 82-year-old Biden, who appeared infirm and incoherent, to step aside in favour of another candidate as polls show Trump far ahead. Biden is said to be considering his options, but is expected to make another show of strength, in interviews and hosting a mega NATO Summit with Indo-Pacific leaders as well as Ukraine President Zelenskyy next week.

 What does it mean for India?

1. India has dealt with both Biden and Trump, and strategic and defence ties have improved with both

2. However, the Biden administration is getting tougher on India’s Russia ties, and PM Modi’s visit to Moscow next week will be seen dimly

3. While Trump has been seen as softer on Russia in the past, he also brings unpredictability and open threats, of the kind seen with Iran sanctions, and India may have to make tough choices there

4. On the economy too, Trump will drive a harder deal

35. While Biden is seen as more problematic on the issue of human rights, and the ongoing Pannun case on alleged transnational repression by India

 WV Take: The larger theme from elections in UK, France, Iran, US is that economic distress, inflation are underlying issues for people everywhere, spurring democratic change. A resultant strengthening of conservative right wing values- including anti-immigration, xenophobia and racism is a larger worry, even as Indians continue to be amongst the largest groups of illegal immigrants to Europe and US. These will have a bearing on both bilateral ties and foreign policy in the future.

 WV Book recommendations:

1. Biographies of new UK PM- Keir Starmer: by Tom Baldwin and Red Knight: The Unauthorised Biography of Sir Keir Starmer by Michael A. Ashcroft

2. The Conservative Party After Brexit: Turmoil and Transformation Kindle Edition by Tim Bale

3. Great Britain?: The instant Sunday Times bestseller and must-read for the 2024 General Election Kindle Edition by Torsten Bell

4. Politics On the Edge: by Rory Stewart also co host of podcast The Rest is Politics

5. The Macron Régime: The Ideology of the New Right in France by Charles Devellennes

6. Revolutionary Iran : A History of the Islamic Republic by Michael Axworthy

Script and Presentation: Suhasini Haidar

Production: Gayatri Menon and Shibu Narayan

A campaigner pastes an election poster of French far-right Rassemblement National (RN) candidate Sandrine Chadournec (C) in Libourne, southwestern France on July 2, 2024, as part of the French legislative elections.
| Photo Credit: AFP

At least 200 candidates have stood down ahead of France’s runoff election as President Emmanuel Macron and a left-wing coalition seek to block the far right, an AFP tally showed on Tuesday.

On Sunday, France votes in the decisive final round of the snap legislative polls Mr. Macron called after his camp received a drubbing in European elections last month.

The rivals are hoping that tactical withdrawals to unify the vote ahead of the runoff will prevent the far-right National Rally party of Marine Le Pen winning an absolute majority of 289 seats in the 577-seat National Assembly.

Ahead of Tuesday’s 6:00 p.m. (1600 GMT) deadline for registration for the second round, at least 200 candidates had already dropped out, nearly all of them left-wing or members of Mr. Macron’s centrist camp, according to AFP.

Of the candidates who have decided to quit the race more than 110 are members of the left-wing New Popular Front and more than 70 represent Mr. Macron’s camp.

A far-right candidate also stood down over an old social media post of herself in a Nazi cap, a party official told local media.

The far-right party scored a victory in the June 30 first round with more than 10.6 million votes.

Just 76 lawmakers, almost all from the far right and left were elected outright in the first round.

The fate of the remaining 501 seats will be determined in the second round in run-offs between two or three remaining candidates.

Paris:

Emmanuel Macron has taken many risks in a political career marked by countless crises but his decision to call snap elections may be one too many, marring his legacy and ushering in an era of extremes.

The tremors from Macron dissolving the National Assembly after his centrist party suffered a drubbing in European polls remain strong, with even figures close to the president acknowledging unease over the political turmoil.

The far-right National Rally (RN) on Sunday won the first round of legislative elections.

Next week’s second-round results on July 7 could give the party of Macron’s longtime rival Marine Le Pen the post of prime minister for the first time, forcing a tense “cohabitation”.

Macron’s popularity has sunk to the extent that allies suggested he take a back seat in the campaign, with Prime Minister Gabriel Attal leading the way.

For one of Macron’s most loyal supporters, some of the resentment stems from his unexpected rise to the presidency.

“There’s a desire for revenge on the part of politicians who resent his success,” said Francois Patriat, head of the pro-Macron deputies in the upper house Senate.

Always defiant, Macron insisted in a statement as the first results were published on “the importance of this vote for all our compatriots and the desire to clarify the political situation”.

‘Hopeless optimist’

Born in Amiens to two doctors, Macron met his future wife Brigitte when she was his teacher and 25 years his senior.

“He fell in love with his drama teacher when he was 16, and he said he was going to marry her, and then he married her. That’s pretty strong stuff,” said a former classmate from the elite graduate school ENA.

With that same self-confidence, he quit the government of former president Francois Hollande in August 2016 to prepare his run for the presidency, a risky move at the time.

He went on to create En Marche (On the Move), a political movement with the same initials as its leader and won the presidential election in 2017 at the age of 39.

Calling himself a “hopeless optimist,” Macron later said he was able to break through “because France was unhappy and worried”. 

Optimism over the former Rothschild investment banker, who once promoted “Revolution” in his book, quickly soured over his economic policies once in office.

The former economy minister under a Socialist government earned the reputation as “president of the rich” after announcing early in his tenure that he would abolish a tax on high earners.

Then, last year, his move to raise the retirement age from 62 to 64 sparked mass protests and reinforced the perception that Macron is out of touch with public opinion.

“There are a lot of people who think I’m haughty,” he said. Early quips haunted him, including one when he said the unemployed only needed to “cross the street” to find a job.

The now 46-year-old is convinced that his economic track record speaks for itself, with France considered Europe’s most attractive country for foreign investment and an end to mass unemployment.

But for many, Macron’s promise of centrism has not withstood pressure from a wave of domestic and international crises — or from the far right.

‘Lack of humility’

The anti-government “yellow vest” movement, the Covid-19 pandemic, and the war in Ukraine are just a few of the challenges Macron has faced during his tenure.

Even as his support buckles at home, Macron has remained a key voice in European politics.

“We shouldn’t quibble. He’s the great European of his time,” said Franco-German ecologist Daniel Cohn-Bendit, while adding that Macron’s problem was that he was “convinced of being right”.

Macron aligned with allies offering support to Ukraine after Russia’s 2022 invasion, but he irritated many by continuing to engage with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Two years later however, some criticise him for his hawkish stance. Macron refuses to rule out sending troops to Ukraine, a move criticised by other Western countries as unnecessarily inflammatory.

The late Gerard Collomb, former mayor of Lyon, was more direct in his criticism, calling out Macron’s “hubris” and a “lack of humility” in the government.

The perception that Macron is increasingly isolated is part of the problem, said one former advisor. 

“He has no grassroots network… the people around him are the same, they don’t express the mood of the times,” they added.

While the first lady is seen as a moderating figure, Macron has shifted rightward, with some accusing the president of opportunism. 

‘Shifting opinion’

On the evening of his 2017 victory, Macron pledged in front of the Louvre museum to do “everything” in his power to ensure the French “no longer have any reason to vote for the extremes”.

For many, though, the young centrist whom they voted for has shifted further and further right, opening the door for other extremes to take hold.

The same man who drew inspiration from an anti-capitalist party slogan to win re-election in 2022 later adopted the words of extreme right-wing figure Eric Zemmour “so that France remains France”. 

For Le Pen, who senses a chance to take the presidency in 2027, Macron has “a plasticity, an incredible self-confidence which is both his strength and his weakness”.

A former special advisor sees that plasticity differently.

“He’s turning his back on … 2017 and humanist values,” said Philippe Grangeon. “There is no right-wing turn… the president is adapting to shifting opinion.” 

Macron dismisses these criticisms, saying he ultimately relies on himself. “You make the toughest decisions on your own,” he said.

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

Supporters of Marine Le Pen, French far-right leader and far-right Rassemblement National (National Rally – RN) party candidate, celebrate after partial results in the first round of the early French parliamentary elections, in Henin-Beaumont, France, on June 30, 2024.
| Photo Credit: Reuters

France’s far-right National Rally (RN) party was seen leading the first round of parliamentary elections with around 34% of votes, pollsters IFOP, Ipsos, OpinionWay and Elabe said on Sunday.

The leftwing New Popular Front (NFP) coalition was seen coming in second with around 29%, ahead of President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist bloc in third spot with between 20.5-23%.

Elabe said in an estimate for BFM TV that the National Rally and its allies could win between 260-310 parliament seats in the second voting round on July 7, while Ipsos projected a range of 230-280 seats for RN and its allies in a poll for France Television.

289 seats are needed for an absolute majority in the National Assembly, France’s lower house of parliament.