Ahead of the 2-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a barrage of European Foreign Ministers are in Delhi for the annual Raisina Dialogue. Is Ukraine in danger of losing land annexed by Russia permanently? And has the needle of Indian Foreign policy moved at all since 2022?

We get you the picture that emerged at the Ministry of External Affairs’ annual Raisina Dialogue – where 15 of 21 Foreign Ministers gathered were from Europe – and made a strong pitch for India to support Ukraine and to reconsider oil and arms purchases from Russia.

In an interview to German paper Handelsblatt this week Mr. Jaishankar had defended India’s position, saying “Russia has never harmed India’s interests”.

Two years into the Ukraine war – that originally was expected to have been much shorter- here are the 5 things you need to know

Two years after the Russia announced its special operations in Ukraine- If by March 2022 Russia had occupied about 20% of Ukrainian territory, by 2024 it still controls about 17% of it. By the end of the year, estimates say Russia will have spent $132 billion, and lost more than $300 bn due to financial sanctions by the west. But its sales of oil are nearly back to pre-war levels due to countries like China, India and Brazil. 

Ukraine has borne the brunt of the war- tens of thousands dead, more than 14 million displaced, of which 6 million are now refugees living in 11 countries. Cities, infrastructure destroyed, and a constant pressure on its arms and military resources. According to the Ukrainian Dy FM- Ukraine has already suffered $500 bn in losses. It is now applying for membership to the European Union-NATO membership may more complicated

The 2 years of war have shown many faultlines in the west as different countries Debate over funding the war. The US, heading into an uncertain election is seeing pushback in Congress, European countries have seen a more unified voice, but many in Europe are not yet increasing their Defence budgets to the 2% required for Ukraine. One obvious outcome : Finland and Sweden have now joined NATO. There’s also no question that Israel’s bombardment of Gaza has brought new schisms, and also exposed some of the double speak of these countries on civilian deaths.

A similar kind of contested unity in the Global South- that largely disapproves of Russia’s actions, but doesn’t agree with the unilateral sanctions imposed on Russia, or the narrative that holds only Russia responsible. At the G20 summit in India last year, the final joint statement did not criticize Russia for the war in any way. And despite western discomfort, 5 new members joined BRICS this year- incl UAE, KSA, Iran, Egypt and Ethiopia.

Is there a UN or multilateral way forward? Russia has ruled out pulling its troops out of entrenched positions- however, at Ukraine’s request, Switzerland is planning a peace Conference in the coming months, and has asked all countries including India to attend, with an eye on possible mediators

Speaking to a US journalist Tucker Carlson last week, here’s what Russian president Putin had said: “Why would we attack Poland? We have simply no interest in Poland, Latvia or any other countries- this is just threat-mongering.”

India’s position

Russia ties – no shift on abstentions at the UN. An increase in Oil procurement so Russia accounts from 30-40% of Oil imports as opposed to less than a percent pre-war. Military Hardware procurement has flagged- due to Russia capacity and payment issues, but bilateral trade is rising. On a political level, PM hasn’t gone to Moscow for 2 years now but EAM Jaishankar did visit in December, and PM Modi is expected to go for the BRICS summit in Moscow in October. Meanwhile no response to the death of Opposition leader Alexei Navalny, despite the chorus of protest from the west.

With Ukraine, New Delhi has been more conservative- while it has provided about 100 tonnes of aid like medicines, water tanks, tents etc, it has not agreed to infrastructural aid Ukraine has requested. No visits by ministers to Kiev, PM Modi met Zelensky in Japan but didn’t invite him to the G20 summit

However, despite this stand, India’s ties with the US and Europe have not been affected, while a few Indian companies have been sanctioned, there is no let up in bilateral engagement from the west, especially Europe- Raisina dialogue being a case in point. And this is seen as a major success for the government

Worldview Take

Two years into the war in Ukraine, Russian annexation of parts of Ukraine that form a buffer zone on its western flank seem impossible to reverse, but so is the damage to its reputation. The US and Europe’s double standards on the killing of civilians, bombardment of hospitals and schools in Ukraine vs Gaza has made its position unsellable to the rest of the world. In all of this, India’s position has delivered its diplomacy a tactical if not a principled win. Pleasing all sides in a war is more difficult in the long run, however.

Indian-American Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy has called for stronger relationships with India, South Korea and Japan to reduce U.S.’ economic dependence on China and Taiwan.

Mr. Ramaswamy, 38, whose poll numbers have surged following the maiden Republican presidential primary debate last week, spelt out his plans and foreign policy views on August 29.

He attacked another Indian-American Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley, who had slammed him for his inexperience on foreign policy issues.

“We will enter a stronger partnership with India that involves an Indian commitment to close the Malacca Strait in the event of a near-term conflict with Taiwan, and enter stronger partnerships with other allies including South Korea and Japan to reduce our economic dependence on China and Taiwan,” Mr. Ramaswamy said.

The entrepreneur-turned-politician said he favours strategic clarity and advocated that the U.S. must defend Taiwan vigorously until America achieves semiconductor independence, then resume the posture of strategic ambiguity when the stakes are lower for the U.S..

“The American way of life depends on leading-edge semiconductors manufactured in Taiwan, and we can’t risk China gaining near-total leverage over the entire U.S. economy,” he said.

“By saying that we will defend Taiwan, the U.S. can strongly deter China from blockading or invading the island in the near term. Meantime, Taiwan should more than double its own military expenditures to a more rational level of 4% to 5% of its gross domestic product,” he said.

He said the U.S. should rapidly arm and train Taiwan with Anti-Access/Area Denial weapons while running at least one Destroyer warship through the Taiwan Strait each week.

The U.S. should also fortify its own homeland defence, which is at present dangerously vulnerable to major conflicts with China, he said, adding this includes improving nuclear, super electromagnetic pulse, cyber and space defence capabilities.

His campaign said that Mr. Ramaswamy is the only U.S. Presidential candidate to date who has clearly stated that the U.S. will defend Taiwan.

“I am the only Presidential candidate willing to state what is necessary: we will defend Taiwan. The U.S. currently doesn’t even recognise Taiwan as a nation. Democrats and Republicans both unquestioningly endorse the ‘one China’ policy and embrace “strategic ambiguity” toward the island,” Mr. Ramaswamy said.

Hitting out at Ms. Haley, Mr. Ramaswamy’s campaign in a statement said that in a desperate attempt to raise funds for her languishing establishment campaign, the former U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. was intentionally lying about Mr. Ramaswamy.

Ms. Haley has blasted Mr. Ramaswamy for not backing U.S. allies.

According to his campaign, Ms. Haley flatly lied on Fox News that “Mr. Ramaswamy said he would abandon Israel, those were his words” and that “he wants to go and stop funding Israel”. “This is false,” his campaign asserted in a late-night statement.

“We challenge the failing Ms. Haley campaign and any media outlet to find a single instance where Ramaswamy utters that he would not support Israel. They will not – because Ramaswamy never said it. Instead, they continue to recycle blatantly false headlines that they manufactured,” the statement said.

Mr. Ramaswamy said that if Israel ever gets to the point that it no longer needs U.S. financial support, that would be a mark of achievement – but that the U.S. will never cut off aid to Israel until Israel says they are ready for it, his campaign said.

It all started about a week ago when Ms. Haley at the debate stage accused Mr. Ramaswamy of not having any foreign policy experience.

Since then the Ohio-based Indian-American has been attacked both by the media and his political opponents for his inexperience on foreign policy.

On Tuesday, Mr. Ramaswamy used the ‘Namrata Randhawa’ name of Nikki Ms. Haley on his website.

“I’m not going to get involved in these childish name games. It’s pretty pathetic. First of all, I was born with Nikki on my birth certificate. I was raised as Nikki. I married a Ms. Haley. And so that is what my name is.

“So he can say or misspell or do whatever he wants, but he can’t step away from the fact that, he’s the one that said he was going to abandon Israel,” Ms. Haley told Fox News in response.

“Those were his words. Now he’s wanting to walk it back. And the reality is, you have to understand the importance of our allies and those relationships. We can never be so narcissistic to think that we don’t need friends,” she said.

It is not that Israel needs America. America needs Israel too, Ms. Haley said.

“Israel faces genocidal threats from Hamas, from Hezbollah, from Iran, from Syria. You need a president that understands that that understands that Israel is the front line of defence when it comes to us dealing with Islamic terrorism in Iran,” she claimed.

“And he just doesn’t get it. So, look, I mean, I think you can tell a lot about the kind of leader someone will be based on how they run their campaign. And he’s doing that all on his own,” Ms. Haley said.

Later in the night, Mr. Ramaswamy’s campaign issued a statement against Ms. Haley.

“We wish Ambassador Haley and her family well in their future careers in the private sector, noting that they rapidly generated an impressive fortune as military contractors following her short-lived stint as U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations,” the campaign said.

Mr. Ramaswamy said the U.S. relationship with Israel is a model example of how international relationships should work.

Israel spends a greater percentage of its own GDP on defence than any major nation. 70% of the aid the U.S. provides to Israel must be spent in the U.S., and by 2028 the mandate is 100%. This is consistent with ‘America-First’ foreign policy objectives, he said.

“By the end of my first term, our relationship with Israel will be stronger than it has ever been. I will consummate Abraham Accords 2.0 by the end of 2025, adding Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar, and Indonesia to the pact. We will work with Israel to ensure that Iran never acquires a nuclear weapon that advances U.S. interests,” Mr. Ramaswamy said.

“I won’t end our aid to Israel until the day when Israel tells the U.S. they are ready for it. That’s what true friends do: they speak honestly and openly to one another. I will speak to Bibi and invite him to the White House, something that President Biden is shamefully frightened to do,” he said.