A view of a sand sculpture depicting Donald Trump at Puri beach in Odisha on November 6, 2024 after he won the U.S. Presidential elections.
| Photo Credit: Reuters

Five years after Prime Minister Narendra Modi told a crowd in Houston, Texas, that India had “connected well” with Republican candidate Donald Trump and followed it up with “Abki Baar Trump Sarkar (This time, a Trump government)”, Mr. Trump has gained the votes required to become the U.S.’s 47th President. Mr. Modi’s statement reflected the bonhomie that the two leaders shared throughout Mr. Trump’s first tenure. But when we go beyond personal ties to bilateral ties, ‘Trump 1.0’ was a mixed bag for India. New Delhi will no doubt welcome Trump 2.0, even as it braces for the impact of some of his methods, such as using social media to open coercion in order to drive home a point.

Where the road will be smooth

There are several reasons for the Modi government to be delighted with Mr. Trump’s victory. The President-elect has made it clear that he intends to build on his past history with India, which will include building trade ties, opening up more technology for Indian companies, and making more U.S. military hardware available for Indian defence forces. He will pick up the broken threads of negotiations for a Free Trade Agreement, which saw intense negotiations in 2019-2020 before he lost power, and which former President Joe Biden showed no interest in continuing. Rather than pushing India on carbon emission cuts, Mr. Trump is likely to encourage India to buy into U.S. oil and LNG, along the lines of the Memorandum of Understanding for the Driftwood LNG plant in Louisiana in 2019, which would have brought $2.5 billion in investment from Petronet India into the U.S. but was shelved a year later.

U.S. Elections 2024 results | LIVE updates

Under Mr. Trump, India-U.S. ties are also unlikely to face less trouble over issues such as democratic norms, minority rights, press freedoms, and human rights, which the Modi government faced from the Biden administration and the U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom. Nor will they need to worry about queries on the treatment of climate and human rights NGOs hit by the Foreign (Contribution) Regulation Act, 2010, although there may be some questions asked by Republican Congressmen who are concerned about U.S. Christian NGOs operating in India. New Delhi will also hope that public comments by the U.S. State Department and Department of Justice on the Pannun-Nijjar cases will be more muted. While the trial involving alleged middleman, Nikhil Gupta, for the aborted assassination attempt on Khalistani activist Gurpatwant Pannun last year would continue, founder of the Republican Hindu Coalition, Shalabh ‘Shaili’ Kumar, has said that he expects Mr. Trump to “crackdown” on Khalistani groups. Moreover, Mr. Trump’s frosty ties in the past with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau indicate that New Delhi would not have to worry about a reaction from Washington over its ongoing diplomatic war with Ottawa over the Nijjar killing.

Potential trouble areas

So, where could the trouble come from? The first problem is Mr. Trump’s persistent focus on cutting trade tariffs, which saw his administration impose a series of counter-tariffs, file World Trade Organization complaints, and then withdraw India’s GSP status for exporters.

The second is his habit of disclosing the contents of private conversations with leaders and, on occasion, embellishing them or even imagining them. For instance, he mocked Mr. Modi on the issue of lowering of duties on Harley Davidson motorcycles and badgered India to lift the ban on Hydroxychloroquine exports, which did not go down well in New Delhi.

This habit took a more serious turn when it involved other countries. In 2019, Mr. Trump told Pakistan’s then Prime Minister, Imran Khan, that they could “resolve the Kashmir issue”, and that Mr. Modi had asked him to mediate in the matter (India vehemently denied the assertion). In 2020, after China transgressed the Line of Actual Control and began a military stand-off with India, Mr. Trump posted that Mr. Modi was “not in a good mood” over the developments; India denied that the two leaders had spoken at all. Diplomats, however, point out that Mr. Trump did back India in the conflict, ensuring that the U.S. shared intelligence, leased drones, and supplied winter gear for the forces “in a manner different from past U.S. administrations”.

Perhaps the most testing times were during the U.S.’s tensions with Iran: in June 2018, he sent the then United Nations envoy, Nikki Haley, on a mission to New Delhi to virtually threaten India with sanctions. Subsequently, India “zeroed out” its oil imports from both Iran and Venezuela.

In some relief, New Delhi is likely to face little pressure now on cutting ties with Moscow, given Mr. Trump’s interest in engaging the Russian President. India will also seek Mr. Trump’s intervention in ending Israel’s war in Gaza and Lebanon, and reopening talks with Gulf countries, to help revive its plans for the India Middle East Europe Economic Corridor, now virtually moribund.

India’s neighbours may be more concerned about the impact of Mr. Trump’s victory. During his last tenure, he had cancelled most of the U.S. aid to Pakistan. Now, the Shahbaz Sharif government would worry about losing U.S. support on loans from the International Monetary Fund and World Bank as well. In Bangladesh, Chief Advisor Muhammad Yunus, a close friend of Democratic Party leaders, has already run afoul of Mr. Trump, who posted on social media last week about Dhaka’s failure to protect Hindu minorities. The Biden government had expanded its outreach in South Asian countries, such as Nepal, Bhutan, and the Maldives. In that sense, many in the region may worry not so much about U.S. actions, but a lack of attention from the new administration.

suhasini.h@thehindu.co.in

New Delhi:

Delhi’s ruling AAP – locked in a political row with the BJP over Arvind Kejriwal’s arrest and assault allegations by Swati Maliwal against his aide – is on the defensive yet again, this time after the Enforcement Directorate alleged the party received Rs 7 crore from donors in Canada, the United States, the Middle East, New Zealand, and Australia between 2014 and 2022.

A furious AAP leader Atishi hit back at the claim Monday evening, declaring herself “very angry with (Prime Minister Narendra) Modi) and accusing the BJP – which she said is “clearly losing all 20 Lok Sabha seats in Delhi and Punjab – of orchestrating political attacks via the federal agency.

“After the failure of the liquor scam and the Swati Maliwal case, now the BJP has brought this case (back)… this clear shows BJP is losing the twenty seats of Delhi and Punjab. (But) all this is not going to work. This is not the ED’s action… but the BJP. I know I am very angry with Modi,” Atishi said.

The Delhi PWD Minister pointed out the charges against her party stem from a case that is 11 years old, and one to which “all answers have been given to ED, Central Bureau of Investigation, Home Ministry, and Election Commission”. “This is a conspiracy by Modi to defame AAP,” Atishi raged.

“BJP does this before every election… many such false allegations will be made over the next four days (before Delhi’s seven Lok Sabha seats vote, all of which were won by the BJP last time),” she said.

AAP Got Illegal Foreign Funds, Claims ED

Earlier today ED sources told NDTV the AAP’s receipt of foreign funds between 2014 and 2022 violated provisions of the FCRA, or Foreign Contribution Regulation Act. The law says parties cannot take foreign funds.

According to the agency, many of the donors recorded identical passport, credit card, and mobile phone numbers, as well as e-mail IDs. A confidential report to the Home Ministry, which has been leaked, indicates that 155 people living abroad donated Rs 1.02 crore on 404 occasions.

The ED has claimed each donation is linked to one of only 55 passports, and that the AAP, to avoid restrictions, hid donor identities and routed the funds directly into an account with IDBI Bank Ltd.

This alleged breach of the law came to light, agency sources have said, during inquiries into a drug smuggling case involving former AAP MLA Sukhpal Singh Khaira, who is now with the Congress.

Documents seized in a raid of his home contained information on the donors, the ED has alleged. Some of the funds were allegedly siphoned by other AAP leaders for personal use.

AAP’s 2013 Foreign Funds Case

This is not the first time the AAP has been accused of receiving foreign funds.

As far back as 2013 – when the Congress-led UPA government was in power – the AAP was linked to foreign funding. Mr Kejriwal had then said the Congress, now its ally under the INDIA umbrella, is “scared of the AAP” and dared it to also probe foreign funds received by itself and the BJP.

READ | AAP Did Not Get Illegal Foreign Funds: Centre To High Court

That same year the Association for Democratic Reforms approached the Delhi High Court claiming the BJP and Congress had received tens of crores via Indian subsidiaries of foreign companies.

READ | Plea For CBI Probe Into AAP’s Funding Junked By High Court

Two years later the Union Home Ministry told the High Court it had found no evidence and, months later, a petition seeking a full-fledged probe was junked, saying there was no reason to intervene.

READ | “Answer These Points”: Home Ministry To AAP On Foreign Funding

However, two years after that the centre once again asked the AAP to explain funds received from foreign sources and sent a notice to the party. The AAP hit back with claims of a “witch hunt”.

AAP Vs BJP In Election Run–Up

The AAP and the BJP have clashed over multiple issues in the past weeks and months, with rancour ramped up ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha election.

This has included Arvind Kejriwal’s arrest in March – by the Enforcement Directorate – in connection with the alleged liquor policy scam. The Chief Minister – a diabetes patient who claimed not to have received potentially life-saving insulin injections while in jail – was given bail till June 1 so he can campaign.

Swati Maliwal’s assault allegations – against Mr Kejriwal’s aide Bibhav Kumar – have also become a flashpoint between the AAP and the BJP, with the latter demanding the Chief Minister resign.

READ | Graffiti “Threatening” Kejriwal In Metro Trains, AAP Blames BJP

This morning the AAP accused the BJP of sponsoring threats against Mr Kejriwal. This was after graffiti was found inside Delhi Metro trains targeting the chief minister. Delhi Police is probing the claims.

NDTV is now available on WhatsApp channels. Click on the link to get all the latest updates from NDTV on your chat.