Zomato, Adani Ports, Tata Consultancy Services, Mahindra & Mahindra, Maruti and Tata Motors were among the laggards. File
| Photo Credit: PTI

Benchmark Sensex spurted by 454 points and Nifty closed above 23,300 on Monday (January 20, 2025) following gains in banking stocks, mainly Kotak Mahindra Bank, and firm global trends.

The 30-share BSE Sensex jumped 454.11 points or 0.59% to settle at 77,073.44. Intra-day, it surged 699.61 points or 0.91% to 77,318.94.

The NSE Nifty climbed 141.55 points or 0.61% to 23,344.75 with 29 of its constituents ending higher.

Among Sensex shares, Kotak Mahindra Bank jumped over 9% after the firm posted a 10% growth in its consolidated net profit at ₹4,701 crore, aided by the performance of capital markets-linked arms.

Bajaj Finance, Bajaj Finserv, NTPC, State Bank of India, Power Grid, HDFC Bank, Tech Mahindra and Asian Paints were the other gainers.

However, Zomato, Adani Ports, Tata Consultancy Services, Mahindra & Mahindra, Maruti and Tata Motors were among the laggards.

In Asian markets, Tokyo, Shanghai and Hong Kong settled in the positive territory while Seoul ended lower. Markets in Europe were trading higher. U.S. markets ended in the green on Friday (January 17, 2025).

“A strong positive sentiment from Asian markets bolstered domestic markets, starting the week on a healthy note. Further, a robust initial set of earnings from the banking and financial sectors triggered a broad-based rally, driven by the likelihood of improved earnings in the near future.”

“However, uncertainties surrounding Donald Trump’s policies continue to linger, with investors eagerly waiting for more clarity,” Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Financial Services, said.

Global oil benchmark Brent crude dipped 0.36% to $80.50 a barrel.

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) offloaded equities worth ₹3,318.06 crore on Friday (January 17, 2025), according to exchange data.

The BSE benchmark declined 423.49 points or 0.55% to settle at 76,619.33 on Friday (January 17, 2025). The Nifty dropped 108.60 points or 0.47% to 23,203.20.

On January 17, 2025, FIIs were net sellers in the capital markets, offloading shares worth ₹3,318.06 crore. File Photo: C. Venkatachalapathy

The rupee appreciated 5 paise to close at 86.55 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar on Monday (January 20, 2025), as an overnight decline in crude oil prices and the U.S. dollar index supported investor sentiments.

Besides, a positive trend in domestic equities also helped the local currency, Forex traders said the rupee is likely to trade within a volatile range of 86.20-86.80 ahead of key events in the global and domestic economic landscape.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened on a strong note at 86.48 against the greenback. During the day, the local unit touched an intraday high of 86.46 and a low of 86.57.

It finally closed at 86.55 (provisional), a rise of 5 paise against the U.S. dollar.

In the previous session on Friday (January 17, 2025), the rupee settled at 86.60.

According to Anuj Choudhary – Research Analyst at Mirae Asset Sharekhan, the rupee strengthened against the greenback on the weak tone in the U.S. Dollar index and positive domestic markets. Overnight decline in crude oil prices also supported the rupee.

“We expect the rupee to remain weak on underlying strength in the U.S. Dollar and importer demand for Dollars. However, any further correction in crude oil prices and extended gains in the domestic markets may support the rupee at lower levels,” Mr. Choudhary said.

The U.S. markets will remain closed due to the Martin Luther King Junior Day holiday.

USD/INR spot price is expected to trade in a range of 86.40 to 86.75.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading down 0.17% to 109.16.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, fell 0.50% to $80.39 per barrel in futures trade.

In the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex rose 454.11 points, or 0.59%, to settle at 77,073.44 points, while the Nifty rose 141.55 points, or 0.61%, to 23,344.75 points.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) remained net sellers in the capital markets on Friday (January 17, 2025), as they offloaded shares worth ₹3,318.06 crore, according to exchange data.

On the domestic macroeconomic front, India’s forex reserves dropped by $8.714 billion to $625.871 billion in the week ended January 10, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said on Friday (January 17, 2025).

Earlier, the overall kitty dropped by $5.693 billion to $634.585 billion in the week ended January 3, the RBI said.

FIIs offloaded ₹278.70 crore in the capital markets on a net basis on Monday (December 16, 2024). File
| Photo Credit: The Hindu

The rupee dropped 1 paisa to hit a new lifetime low of 84.92 against the U.S. dollar in early trade on Tuesday (December 17, 2024), weighed down by foreign fund outflows and a muted trend in domestic equities.

Forex traders said the rupee is likely to remain under pressure due to dollar demand from importers and foreign banks.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 84.89 against the greenback, then fell further to 84.92 against the American currency, registering a fall of 1 paisa over its previous close.

On Monday (December 16, 2024), the rupee depreciated by 11 paise to close at an all-time low level of 84.91 against the U.S. dollar.

“The Indian rupee is expected to open at its lowest after a record number in respect of imports and a record trade deficit for November 24 mainly on account of increase in gold buying, took rupee lower in the NDF (Non-Deliverable Forward) markets,” said Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury and Executive Director Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP.

“The opening will depend on where RBI supports rupee, but the trend indicated weakness. The range for the day is 84.75/00 with a close watch on RBI,” Mr. Bhansali added.

On the domestic macroeconomic front, India’s exports in November contracted by 4.85% year-on-year to $32.11 billion, while the trade deficit widened to an all-time high of $37.84 billion due to a record surge in gold imports.

The country’s gold imports in November reached a record high of $14.86 billion, registering a four-fold increase, mainly on account of festival and wedding demands, according to commerce ministry data.

Gold imports stood at $3.44 billion in November 2023.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading lower by 0.02% at 106.83.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, fell 0.12% to $73.82 per barrel in futures trade.

In the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex was trading 326.76 points or 0.40% down at 81,421.81 points in morning trade, while Nifty was down 107.50 points or 0.44% to 24,560.75 points.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) offloaded ₹278.70 crore in the capital markets on a net basis on Monday (December 16, 2024), according to exchange data.

Image used for representational purposes. File
| Photo Credit: The Hindu

The rupee rebounded from its all-time low level and settled with a gain of 10 paise at 84.78 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar on Friday (December 13, 2024), buoyed by a strong recovery in domestic equity markets and easing inflation data.

However, a strengthening American currency overseas and foreign fund outflows restricted the positive bias in the local unit, forex traders said.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 84.87 and touched the intra-day high of 84.77 against the greenback. The unit finally ended the session at 84.78 (provisional) against the dollar, logging a gain of 10 paise from its previous closing level.

On Thursday (December 12, 2024), the rupee fell 5 paise to settle at the lowest-ever level of 84.88 against the U.S. dollar. The previous record low closing level was recorded on December 9, when the unit settled 20 paise lower at 84.86 against the dollar.

The latest official data released on Thursday (December 12, 2024) showed India’s retail inflation eased in November to 5.48% and came within the Reserve Bank’s comfort zone mainly due to lower food prices, creating headroom for a rate cut at the central bank’s rate-setting panel meeting under new Governor Sanjay Malhotra in February.

India’s industrial production (IIP) growth slowed to 3.5% year-on-year in October 2024, mainly due to poor performance of mining, power and manufacturing.

The IIP recorded a growth of 11.9% in October 2023.

Anuj Choudhary, Research Analyst at Mirae Asset Sharekhan, said the rupee recovered from an all-time low on the decline in inflation and upbeat IIP data.

Positive domestic markets also supported the rupee, he said, adding that the U.S. dollar rose on disappointing economic data from the U.K. and Germany.

“We expect the rupee to trade with a negative bias on strong U.S. dollar and elevated crude oil prices. FII outflows may also pressure the rupee. However, positive domestic equities and better-than-expected macroeconomic data may support the rupee at lower levels. U.S.D-INR spot price is expected to trade in a range of ₹84.65 to ₹85.05,” Mr. Choudhary said.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading higher by 0.06% at 106.70.

Analysts said that the dollar has been strengthening after the U.S. inflation numbers came on expected lines, raising hopes for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming policy review next week.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, climbed 0.54% to $73.81 per barrel in futures trade.

On the domestic equity market front, the 30-share benchmark index Sensex closed sharply higher by 843.16 points or 1.04% at 82,133.12 points. The Nifty jumped 219.60 points, or 0.89%, to 24,768.30 points.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on Thursday (December 12, 2024), as they offloaded shares worth ₹3,560.01 crore, according to exchange data.

Representational image.
| Photo Credit: The Hindu

In early trade on Tuesday (November 5, 2024), the rupee fell 2 paise to an all-time low of 84.13 against the U.S. dollar, as persistent foreign fund outflows and a muted trend in domestic equities dented investor sentiments.

Forex traders said all eyes are on the U.S. as it decides its next President. Markets are bracing for potential volatility over the coming days, especially with the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy announcement also scheduled this week.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 84.13 against the greenback, registering a fall of 2 paise over its previous close.

On Monday (November 4, 2024), the rupee fell 4 paise to settle at a record low level of 84.11 against the U.S. dollar.

The rupee closed at an all-time low on Monday (November 4, 2024) and opened at a new low of 84.13 as U.S. elections rattled stock markets amid persistent foreign fund outflows, said Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury and Executive Director at Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP.

“The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) was present to absorb the fall but has been allowing small bouts of depreciation taking the rupee to new lows against the dollar,” Mr. Bhansali added.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.03% higher at 103.91.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, rose 0.19% to $75.22 per barrel in futures trade.

Forex traders said the rupee is likely to trade in a narrow range during the day as the strong dollar weighs on the local unit and rising crude oil prices dragged down the local unit, while any intervention by the RBI may also support the local currency at lower levels.

On the domestic equity market front, Sensex declined 184.51 points, or 0.23%, to 78,597.73 points. The Nifty fell 50.85 points, or 0.21%, to 23,944.50 points.

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on Monday (November 4, 2024), as they offloaded shares worth ₹4,329.79 crore, according to exchange data.

Meanwhile, India’s manufacturing sector growth recovered from September’s eight-month low to 57.5 in October fuelled by faster increases in total new orders and international sales, a monthly survey said on Monday (November 4, 2024).

Bombay Stock Exchange. File
| Photo Credit: PTI

Equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty ended lower on Friday (October 11, 2024), dragged by selling in banking, utility and financial stocks as investors turned cautious ahead of key macro data.

Besides, a mixed trend in global equity markets and unabated foreign fund outflows also hit investors’ sentiment, traders said.

The 30-share BSE Sensex fell 230.05 points or 0.28% to close at 81,381.36. During the day, it declined 307.26 points or 0.37% to a low of 81,304.15.

The NSE Nifty slipped 34.20 points or 0.14% to 24,964.25. It hit an intraday low of 24,920.05.

From the Sensex pack, Tata Consultancy Services, Mahindra & Mahindra, ICICI Bank, Maruti Suzuki India, Power Grid, Axis Bank and Adani Ports & Special Economic Zones were among the laggards.

The government is scheduled to release IIP data later in the day.

On the other hand, HCL Technologies, Tech Mahindra, JSW Steel, Hindustan Unilever, Infosys and Titan were among the gainers.

In Asian markets, Tokyo and Hong Kong were closed in green territory, while Shanghai and Seoul ended in the red.

European markets were trading on a mixed note in mid-session deals. U.S. markets ended lower in overnight deals on Thursday (October 10, 2024).

Global oil benchmark Brent Crude fell 0.77% to $78.79 a barrel.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) offloaded equities worth ₹ 4,926.61 crore on Thursday (October 10, 2024), while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) bought equities worth ₹ 3,878.33 crore, according to exchange data.

On Thursday (October 10, 2024), the 30-share BSE Sensex rose 144.31 points to settle at 81,611.41, while the NSE Nifty climbed 16.50 points to close at 24,998.45.

Equity benchmark index Sensex rebounded nearly 100 points to hit a lifetime closing high on Monday (September 16, 2024), while the broader Nifty ended just shy of its record peak, propelled by bargain hunting in energy, utility and banking stocks amid sustained foreign fund inflows.

The 30-share BSE Sensex climbed 97.84 points or 0.12% to settle at a new record peak of 82,988.78. During the day, it jumped 293.4 points or 0.35% to hit a fresh lifetime intra-day high of 83,184.34.

The NSE Nifty rose 27.25 points or 0.11% to settle at 25,383.75, over 5 points lower than its previous record. During the day, the benchmark gained 89.2 points or 0.35% to hit a new intra-day high of 25,445.70.

“The domestic market traded in a narrow range with a positive bias as the participants are keenly awaiting the Fed’s decision this week. The weakness in the U.S. job market and benign inflation are pointing at a slew of rate cuts on the table.

“The inflow of foreign money and an expectation of stability in domestic growth may keep sentiment optimistic,” Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Financial Services, said.

NTPC was the biggest gainer on the Sensex chart, rising 2.44%, followed by JSW Steel, Larsen & Toubro, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank, Nestle, Mahindra & Mahindra and Tata Steel.

Bajaj Finance declined over 3%. Hindustan Unilever, Bajaj Finserv, Adani Port and Asian Paints were the other laggards.

“The Indian markets continued their bullish trend, with Nifty reaching a new record high, driven primarily by foreign institutional investor (FII) buying and a strong market breadth.

“Investors remain cautiously optimistic ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s meeting later this week, which could influence short-term trends. Investors are advised to stay aligned with the current trend but watch for potential market reactions to the U.S. Fed’s policy announcements,” Vikram Kasat, Head – Advisory, PL Capital – Prabhudas Lilladher, said.

In the broader market, the BSE smallcap gauge climbed 0.28% while the midcap index ended marginally up by 0.01%.

Among the indices, utilities jumped 1.97%, power (1.93%), metal (0.65%), capital goods (0.56%), consumer durables (0.49%) and industrials (0.33%).

IT, telecommunication, tech, services and FMCG were the laggards.

In Asian markets, Hong Kong ended with gains. Markets in Japan, mainland China and South Korea were closed for holidays.

European markets were trading mostly higher. The U.S. markets ended in positive territory on Friday (September 13, 2024).

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) bought equities worth ₹2,364.82 crore on Friday, according to exchange data. Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) also bought equities worth ₹2,532.18 crore.

Global oil benchmark Brent crude climbed 0.35% to USD 71.90 a barrel.

“Globally equity markets will be focused on the Fed rate action on Wednesday, which is likely to influence the stock market trend in the near-term,” said V.K. Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Financial Services.

On Friday (September 13, 2024), the BSE benchmark Sensex fell by 71.77 points or 0.09% to settle at 82,890.94. The NSE Nifty dropped 32.40 points or 0.13% to 25,356.50.

Image used for representational purpose.
| Photo Credit: PTI

Equity benchmark indices rebounded in early trade on Monday (September 16), with the Nifty hitting a fresh all-time high level, amid foreign fund inflows and a rally in the U.S. markets.

The 30-share BSE Sensex climbed 180.92 points to 83,071.86 in early trade. The NSE Nifty went up by 55.1 points to 25,411.60. Later, the NSE benchmark jumped 89.2 points to hit a new record peak of 25,445.70.

Among the 30 Sensex firms, NTPC, Axis Bank, Tata Steel, JSW Steel, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Bajaj Finserv, Larsen & Toubro and Bajaj Finance were the biggest gainers.

Hindustan Unilever, Nestle, ICICI Bank and Tata Consultancy Services were the laggards.

In Asian markets, Shanghai and Hong Kong were trading lower.

The U.S. markets ended in positive territory on Friday.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) bought equities worth ₹2,364.82 crore on Friday, according to exchange data. Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) also bought equities worth ₹2,532.18 crore.

Global oil benchmark Brent crude traded 0.07% higher at $71.66 a barrel.

“Globally equity markets will be focused on the Fed rate action on Wednesday which is likely to influence the stock market trend in the near-term,” said V.K. Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Financial Services.

On Friday, the BSE benchmark Sensex fell by 71.77 points or 0.09% to settle at 82,890.94. The NSE Nifty dropped 32.40 points or 0.13% to 25,356.50.

For representative purposes.
| Photo Credit: Getty Images

Contrary to popular wisdom, financial markets today are not as efficient as they used to be just a few decades ago, argues billionaire investor and co-founder of AQR Capital Management Clifford S. Asness in his forthcoming paper “The Less-Efficient Market Hypothesis” in the Journal of Portfolio Management.

Market efficiency refers to how well the market price of assets, such as common stocks for example, reflect the information that is available to investors about these assets. Financial experts believe that markets, while not perfectly efficient, are highly efficient since there are millions of investors in the market trying on a daily basis to gather as much information as possible about assets and take advantage of any inefficiencies in the pricing of these assets. So, for example, if a company’s stock is trading at a really cheap price when compared to its likely future cash flow, this would attract investors who are looking for a good bargain, thus ensuring that the price of the stock is quickly bid up in the process and the market becomes efficient.

In the modern world, where information about assets is more easily available than ever before and can spread quickly among investors, we might expect assets to be priced efficiently. In fact, some have argued that with the advent of technology, assets have become priced so efficiently that traditional investing approaches such as value investing, which relies on purchasing assets that are selling below their fair value or priced inefficiently, have become irrelevant in today’s market. But Asness argues that the “value spread,” or the gap between the valuation of expensive large-cap stocks in the market as against the cheap large-cap stocks regardless of what measure is used to value these stocks, has actually risen significantly compared to just a few decades ago. In other words, investors are paying too much for stocks that they fancy while deserting stocks that they don’t like so much, causing the extreme overvaluation of some stocks and the undervaluation of other stocks.

The impact of social media

When certain stocks are overvalued while others are undervalued, one might expect investors to avoid overvalued stocks and purchase undervalued stocks, thus helping correct pricing inefficiencies. But Asness notes that this is not happening so much anymore in markets, and that discrepancies in the pricing of expensive and cheap stocks have lasted longer than in the earlier decades. He attributes various reasons for this, but considers the rise of social media and the ease with which stocks can be bought or sold these days as the most important reason. The rise of social media has meant that investors are more likely to gang up and hold similar opinions about stocks that they bet on, he argues, causing the overvaluation of these stocks and the undervaluation of others. On the other hand, there are very few investors who are willing to make a contrarian bet on undervalued stocks, thus depressing the prices of these assets. Asness believes the rise of passive index investing might be aggravating the problem as it leads to investors piling big into a few stocks which possess momentum.

Why does market efficiency matter? It matters because the proper pricing of assets is crucial to how capital is allocated towards competing ends in society, which in turn determines how efficiently resources are used. For example, when assets are priced efficiently companies with bright future prospects get more capital from investors than other companies. When assets are not priced properly this can lead to capital being misallocated to companies that don’t really deserve it, leading to the inefficient use of scarce resources.

The announcement of a hike in securities transaction tax and short term capital gains tax in the Budget for 2024-25, impacted markets’ sentiment negatively during the initial trade on July 25, 2024.

Equity market benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty tumbled in early trade on July 25, continuing to decline for the fifth day running, dragged by Axis Bank and overall bearish global market trends.

The announcement of a hike in securities transaction tax and short term capital gains tax in the Budget for 2024-25, heavy foreign fund outflows and profit-taking after a record rally also impacted markets’ sentiment negatively during the initial trade.

Also Read: Markets still sour after tax hike on equity investments, Nifty, Sensex fall marginally

The 30-share BSE Sensex tanked 671 points to 79,477.83. The NSE Nifty tumbled 202.7 points to 24,210.80.

From the Sensex pack, Axis Bank declined nearly 6% after the company’s June quarter earnings failed to cheer investors.

JSW Steel, Tata Steel, ICICI Bank, Power Grid, UltraTech Cement and Titan were the other laggards.

Tata Motors, Larsen & Toubro, HDFC Bank and Kotak Mahindra Bank were the gainers.

In Asian markets, Seoul, Tokyo, Shanghai and Hong Kong were trading lower. The U.S. markets ended significantly lower on July 24.

“Global cues have turned distinctly negative with a sharp 3.64% cut in Nasdaq, which is the worst cut in 2024. The tech stocks which have been driving the rally in the U.S. are facing the brunt of selling due to worse-than-expected results and news.

“In India, too, the sentiments have turned a bit negative on the Budget proposals to raise the capital gains tax,” said V. K. Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Financial Services.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) offloaded equities worth ₹ 5,130.90 crore on July 25, according to exchange data.

Global oil benchmark Brent crude declined 0.76 % to USD 81.09 a barrel.

The BSE benchmark declined 280.16 points or 0.35 % to settle at 80,148.88 on July 24. The NSE Nifty dropped 65.55 points or 0.27 % to 24,413.50.