The rupee appreciated sharply by 61 paise to close at 95.92 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar on Monday (July 27, 2026), driven by a steep correction in crude oil prices after the U.S. and Iran paused the war in West Asia, triggering hopes of easing global trade tensions.

According to Forex traders, the local currency also found support from a firm trend in domestic equities and weakness in the U.S. Dollar against major currencies.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 96.18 and touched the low of 96.27 and the high of 95.78 against the greenback during the session. The local unit finally settled at 95.92 (Provisional) against the dollar, up 61 paise compared to its previous closing level.

On Friday (July 24, 2026), the rupee recovered from its record low levels to settle 20 paise higher at 96.53 against the U.S. Dollar. The Rupee’s all-time low closing level of 96.86 was recorded on May 20.

Anuj Choudhary, Research Analyst, Mirae Asset ShareKhan, said the rupee strengthened to the highest levels in three weeks as the U.S. and Iran halted strikes after two weeks of escalation.

“Falling crude oil prices and the softening of the U.S. Dollar also favoured the rupee. Reports of intervention by the RBI also supported the rupee,” Mr. Choudhary said, adding, “The USD-INR spot price is expected to trade in a range of ₹95.50 to ₹96.20”.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.20% lower at 101.09.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, declined 8.95% to $88.12 per barrel in futures trade as the U.S. and Iran halted attacks and hinted at moving on to a negotiation table.

U.S. President Donald Trump is “giving talks some space”, Mike Waltz, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, told a news channel.

“He’s giving it a little bit of room,” Mr. Waltz said, adding, “We’ve had both Oman and Iran, and a number of our other negotiators, engaged at every level, from the most senior levels all the way down to the technical level over the past few weeks, and particularly in the past few days.”

On the domestic equity market front, Sensex surged 776.01 points, or 1.02%, to settle at 76,835.78, while the Nifty gained 228.50 points, or 0.96%, to 23,995.95.

Foreign Institutional Investors offloaded equities worth ₹3,892.77 crore on a net basis on Friday (July 24, 2026), according to exchange data.

Profitability at State-run oil marketing companies (OMCs) is set to improve as falling crude oil prices lift fuel marketing margins, although rising debt levels and uncertainty over fuel taxes could limit the sector’s longer-term earnings outlook, according to a JP Morgan report.

“Composite margins on petrol and diesel sales at State-run refiners and fuel retailers are now above levels seen before the recent Middle East [West Asia] conflict, with gains driven by lower crude prices and reduced central excise duties,” it said.

The start of the West Asia conflict triggered a surge in global oil prices but retail pump rates in India remained steady for large parts and rising only by a fraction of the required increase. Even after the ₹7.50 per litre increase in petrol and diesel prices in May, retail pump rates were lower than the cost.

“Our estimates for OMC composite margins on petrol and diesel are now higher than pre-war levels. Losses on LPG are still elevated, but should also start to track oil down soon,” JP Morgan said adding earnings in April-June — the first quarter of current fiscal year — will likely be hurt by large inventory losses, but 2Q profitability should be better.

“Two issues limit our excitement around this improvement in margins: the OMC will have acquired material debt during the last few months — affecting valuations, and a major part of the restoration of profitability is on account of the reduction in excise duties,” it said. “It is possible that the government keeps taxes low for some time — permitting debt repayment at the OMC. The risk of an eventual increase in excise duties remains.”

The government had cut excise duty on petrol and diesel by ₹10 per litre each in March to avoid an immediate increase in retail prices. The duties may be restored once global oil prices fall to pre-war levels and stabilise.

Among the three State-run OMCs — Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited, Indian Oil Corporation and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited — BPCL and IOC are expected to benefit the most in the near term if oil prices continue to ease.

The brokerage estimated that the current composite petrol and diesel margins for BPCL and IOCL are higher than pre-conflict levels, while HPCL’s margins have largely returned to or exceeded levels seen before the recent oil price spike. The improvement reflects stronger combined refining and marketing economics, even as standalone fuel marketing margins remain below historical averages.

The stronger margin environment could support earnings from the second quarter onwards, particularly if crude prices remain below $80 per barrel and refining margins stay elevated.

However, first-quarter earnings are likely to remain under pressure due to inventory losses stemming from the recent decline in crude prices. Analysts also expect the three OMCs to report elevated borrowings after absorbing losses on the sale of petrol, diesel and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) over recent months.

While losses on LPG remain significant, they are expected to moderate as lower oil prices feed through to the sector.

A key factor behind the recovery in fuel margins has been the government’s decision to keep excise duties lower, allowing a larger share of retail fuel prices to accrue to OMCs. Analysts estimate the reduction in excise duties has cost the government roughly ₹1.8 lakh crore annually in forgone revenue. That has raised questions over the sustainability of current profitability levels.

“The government may allow OMCs to retain higher margins for some time to help reduce debt accumulated during recent periods of under-recovery,” analysts said. However, pressure to raise fuel taxes could re-emerge, particularly as the government faces higher expenditure commitments over the next two fiscal years.

As a result, JP Morgan expects OMCs could report strong earnings in the December and March quarters if crude prices remain subdued, but caution that visibility on fuel marketing margins beyond fiscal 2028 remains limited.

The sector is therefore likely to remain a tactical play tied closely to movements in crude oil prices and government tax policy, with BPCL and IOC viewed as the preferred bets in the current environment.

The rupee recovered from the record low level and settled with a gain of 11 paise at 88.66 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday (November 4, 2025) boosted by falling crude oil prices overseas.

Forex traders said a firm dollar, outflow of foreign funds and subdued domestic equity markets prevented a sharp gain in the Indian currency.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 88.55 and hit the intra-day high of 88.28 against the greenback. The unit also touched a low of 88.67 before ending the session at 88.66 (provisional) against the dollar, up 11 paise from its previous closing level.

On Monday (November 3, 2025), the domestic unit, declining for the third consecutive session, ended 7 paise lower at 88.77 against the US dollar, near its all-time closing level.

The rupee had recorded its lowest-ever closing level of 88.81 against the dollar on October 14.

The foreign exchange markets will be closed on Wednesday on account of Prakash Gurpurb holiday.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, rose 0.09 per cent to 99.80.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, fell 1.37% to $64 per barrel in futures trading.

On the domestic equity markets front, the Sensex tanked 519.34 points or 0.62% to settle at 83,459.15, while the Nifty declined 165.70 points or 0.64% to end at 25,597.65.

Foreign institutional investors sold equities worth ₹1,883.78 crore on Monday (November 3, 2025), according to exchange data.

A monthly survey released on Monday (November 3, 2025) showed India’s manufacturing sector activity strengthened in October, buoyed by Goods and Services Tax relief, productivity gains and tech investment, even as international sales increased at a weaker pace.

The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose from 57.7 in September to 59.2 in October, indicating a quicker improvement in the sector’s health.