Washington:

Nearly three-quarters of voters in Tuesday’s presidential election believe American democracy is under threat, according to national exit poll data from Edison Research, reflecting the deep anxiety that the nation faces after a contentious campaign between Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump.

Democracy and the economy ranked by far as the most important issues for voters, followed by abortion and immigration, the data showed. The poll showed 73% of voters believed democracy was in jeopardy, against just 25% who said it was secure.

The figures reflect just a slice of the tens of millions of people who have voted, both before and on Election Day, and the preliminary results are subject to change through the course of the night as more people are surveyed.

The two rivals were hurtling toward an uncertain finish after a dizzying campaign as millions of American voters waited in calm, orderly lines on Tuesday to choose between two sharply different visions for the country.

A race churned by unprecedented events – two assassination attempts against Trump, President Joe Biden’s surprise withdrawal and Harris’ rapid rise – remained neck and neck after billions of dollars in spending and months of frenetic campaigning.

Trump, who has frequently spread false claims that he won the 2020 presidential election against Biden and whose supporters attacked the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, voted near his home in Palm Beach, Florida.

“If I lose an election, if it’s a fair election, I’m gonna be the first one to acknowledge it,” Trump told reporters.

Harris, who had earlier sent in her ballot by mail to her home state of California, spent some of Tuesday in radio interviews encouraging listeners to vote. Later, she was due to address students Howard University, a historically Black college in Washington where Harris was an undergraduate.

“To go back tonight to Howard University, my beloved alma mater, and be able to hopefully recognize this day for what it is is really full circle for me,” Harris said on a radio interview.

National exit-poll results provide an important window into the thinking of the nation, but may not directly align with the seven battleground states expected to decide the presidential election.

Exit polls capture variations among turnout in various demographic groups, such as men vs women voters or college-educated vs non-college educated voters, and can provide insights into how turnout has changed from past elections.

One key advantage of exit polls is all the people surveyed, by definition, are people who cast ballots in this election.

Opinion polls before the election showed the candidates running neck and neck in each of the seven states likely to determine the winner: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

No matter who wins, history will be made.

Harris, 60, the first female vice president, would become the first woman, Black woman and South Asian American to win the presidency. Trump, 78, the only president to be impeached twice and the first former president to be criminally convicted, would also become the first president to win non-consecutive terms in more than a century.

The contest reflects a deeply polarized nation whose divisions have only grown starker during a fiercely competitive race. Trump has employed increasingly dark and apocalyptic rhetoric on the campaign trail. Harris has urged Americans to come together, warning that a second Trump term would threaten the underpinnings of American democracy.

Control of both chambers of Congress is also up for grabs. Republicans have an easier path in the U.S. Senate, where Democrats are defending several seats in Republican-leaning states, while the House of Representatives looks like a toss-up.

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

Bengaluru:

Karnataka Deputy Chief Minister and Congress leader DK Shivakumar said on Sunday that the exit polls would go wrong like they did during the state assembly elections last year.

He said that the exit polls predicted the Congress party would not assume power in Karnataka but eventually, they were proved wrong.

“Exit polls had predicted that the Congress party would not come to power during the last Assembly elections, but they were wrong. Exit polls had given only about 80-85 seats to Congress, but I had predicted we would win 136 seats as per the survey we had conducted. We eventually won 136 seats,” Shivakumar said while speaking to reporters at his Sadashivanagar residence on Sunday.

“I am not confident with whatever the poll predictions have come. In Karnataka, we have performed the best. According to my experience of the last 40 years, there was no Modi wave in Karnataka. BJP is looking at all emotional issues, we are looking at the development of every individual,” he said.

Shivakumar claimed the support of the people of Karnataka adding that they have reposed faith in Congress’ guarantee schemes.

“Exit polls would consider a very small sample size of 5000 people and hence I don’t believe in them. The people of Karnataka, especially women, have reposed faith in our guarantee schemes. I am sure they have supported us. Our guarantee schemes at the national level reached the people better in the second phase of the election,” he said.

“Congress does politics of development while BJP does politics of emotion. I won’t comment on the national results, but we will surely cross double digits in Karnataka,” he added.

The exit polls on Saturday predicted the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) winning most of the seats in Congress-ruled Karnataka in the Lok Sabha elections and the Congress not putting up a good show.

The India Today-Axis My India poll predicted NDA getting 23-25 seats and INDIA bloc 3-5 seats out of 28 Lok Sabha seats in Karnataka.

The India TV exit poll said that the NDA is poised to win 19-25 seats in Karnataka, while the INDIA bloc is to get 4-8 seats. The exit poll by News18 predicted that NDA will get 23-26 seats and INDIA bloc will get 3-7 seats in Karnataka.

In the 2019 general elections, the BJP almost swept the state by winning 25 out of 28 seats. Congress and JD(S) — who were in coalition in the state government — could only win one seat each.

The voting for 28 Lok Sabha seats in Karnataka was held in two phases on April 26 and May 7 in the second and third phases. The counting of votes is scheduled for June 4.

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

New Delhi:

During the entire election season, the BJP stood by its target of 400 Lok Sabha seats for the NDA and its slogan of ‘ab ki baar 400 paar’ in the face of relentless mocking by the opposition. If three exit polls are to be believed, the ruling party is going to have the last laugh.  

While two of the polls have given ranges with figures of just over 400 on the upper end, News 24-Today’s Chanakya has predicted 400 as the NDA’s tally. The only rider this number comes with is that the margin of error is 15 seats. The figure then becomes 385 on the lower end and an astounding 415 on the upper side.

India TV-CNX has also given similar estimates and a range of 371-401, putting the NDA just over the mammoth target if it touches the upper limit of the range. India Today-Axis My India has predicted 361-401. 

Health Warning: Exit polls often get it wrong. 

The NDA’s tally was 352 in 2019 and the BJP had won 303 seats on its own. Prime Minister Narendra Modi will make history if he gets a third straight term and the party and the alliance’s leaders and election machinery will have shown their prowess if the NDA even gets the lowest end of these figures.

A tally of 361, the minimum figure predicted by India Today-Axis My India, will mean that the alliance has bettered its performance in each successive election, which would be a huge feat on its own and indicate that anti-incumbency is not much of a factor. It will also be a testament to PM Narendra Modi’s popularity.

The opposition INDIA Alliance, which said on Saturday that it will win 295 constituencies, has been given 107 (plus-minus 11) by Today’s Chanakya, 109-139 by CNX and 131-166 by Axis My India. 

With its 80 Lok Sabha seats the most important state in every election is Uttar Pradesh, where the BJP had won 62 seats in 2019, when the Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party were in an alliance. The Samajwadi Party is now allied with the Congress and all three polls have the BJP bettering its tally in the state. 

News 24-Today’s Chanakya’s prediction is 68 (plus-minus 7), India Today-Axis My India’s estimate is 67-72 and India TV-CNX has given the party 70-74. 

All three polls show the NDA doing better than it did in the South in 2019. Another big headline from the three exit polls is also that the BJP will get more seats that the Trinamool Congress in West Bengal, with Axis My India going as far as giving 26-31 of the state’s 42 seats to the ruling party at the Centre.

New Delhi:

A historic third term for Prime Minister Narendra Modi — that’s what exit polls are predicting as the seventh and the last phase of Lok Sabha election concluded this evening. None, though, have yet carried the NDA across its dream score of 400 of 543 Lok Sabha seats. The BJP, too, has been placed far short of its 370-seat target. The INDIA bloc, five exit polls predicted, will fall massively short of the 285 seats predicted by Congress chief Mallikarjun Kharge this evening.

An aggregate of six exit polls indicates that the NDA will get 367 seats, the INDIA bloc will get 143 seats. The BJP’s individual score will be 327 seats, the Congress, 52.

The maximum number of seats predicted for the NDA was 362-392, in the exit poll by Jan ki Baat. It predicts the Opposition bloc will get 141-161 seats.

It is followed by India News-D Dynamics, which is predicting that the NDA will get 371 seats and INDIA 125 seats.

The lowest score for the NDA comes from Dainik Bhaskar — 281-350, and a corresponding higher score for the INDIA bloc, 145-201 seats.

Exit polls do not always get it right.

All exit polls, though, are unanimous about NDA’s improved performance in the south and in Bengal. In Andhra Pradesh, the alliance with Chandrababu Naidu paid off, they predict, with the NDA expected to get 18 of the state’s 25 seats.

Karnataka is also expected to vote overwhelmingly for the BJP, despite its preference for the Congress at the state level.

In Bengal, the BJP is expected to push up its 2019 score of 18 seats to 22.

Change, though, is expected in Bihar, which had given 39 of its 40 seats to the NDA in the last election. The Opposition alliance, spearheaded by Tejashwi Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal, is expected to prise off 7 seats.

The voting for the Lok Sabha Elections 2024 ends on June 1 with the final and seventh phase polling. The general elections began on April 19, followed by five other phases on April 26, May 7, May 13, May 20, and May 26. 

What are exit polls?

Exit polls try to predict election outcomes by interviewing voters right after they have cast their votes.

In India, such polls are prohibited during the voting process by the Election Commission. However, exit polls can be made public 30 minutes after the entire voting process ends.

This is to make sure that the polls don’t influence people while they are still voting, but also still allows for immediate analysis and discussion once the process is complete.

Warning: Exit polls do not always get it right. They have been way off the mark in the past. 

How are exit polls calculated? 

Exit polls are calculated using a combination of sampling methods and statistical analysis by various agencies. These include:

Sampling: Pollsters pick a bunch of voters from different areas to represent the whole population. They want to make sure they talk to people across demography.

Questioning: Selected voters are asked who they voted for and other basic questions, like their age and where they live.

Data Collection: The answers are collected and recorded. 

Weightage: The data is adjusted to make sure it is a fair representation. For example, if the pollsters didn’t talk to enough young people, they might give their answers more weight to balance things out.

Analysis: Experts look at all this data and analyse it to make predictions about the election results based on what the voters said.

Margin of Error: The exit polls also figure out how certain or uncertain their predictions are. 

Finally, these predictions are shared with the public. 

When are the 2024 exit polls due?

For the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, exit polls will be shown live on June 1 after the final voting phase ends. Voting for this phase will end at 6 pm on Saturday and the exit polls will start airing from 6:30 pm onwards. Tune in to NDTV for live updates on exit polls after 6:30 pm.

The votes will be counted on June 4.

New Delhi:

The Election Commission has issued a notification banning the conduct, publication or publicising of exit polls between 7.00 am of April 19 and 6.30 pm of June 1 when votes will be cast for the Lok Sabha and four state assembly polls.

The notification issued on Thursday also made it clear that under the provisions of the Representation of the People Act, displaying any election matter including results of any opinion poll or any other poll survey, in any electronic media, would be prohibited during the 48-hour period ending with the time fixed for the conclusion of the poll.

Besides Lok Sabha polls, assemblies of Andhra Pradesh, Arunachal Pradesh, Odisha and Sikkim are going for elections.

Separately, by-election to 25 assembly constituencies in 12 states are also being held in this period. 

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)