Image for representation purpose only.
| Photo Credit: K.R. Deepak

The Minimum Support rices (MSPs) for both kharif and rabi seasons 2023-24 ensured a minimum return of 50% over the cost of production for all crops, said the Reserve Bank’s Annual Report released on May 30.

The overall public stock of foodgrains as on March 31, 2024 stood at 2.9 times the total quarterly buffer norm, the report said.

On November 29, 2023, the government extended the scheme of free distribution of foodgrains under the Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana (PMGKAY) for five more years, effective from January 1, 2024.

The report, which is a statutory report of  Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) central board of directors, noted that the agriculture and allied activities faced headwinds from the uneven and deficient South-West Monsoon (SWM) rainfall coinciding with strengthening El Nino conditions.

The overall SWM rainfall in 2023 (June-September) was 6% below Long Period Average (LPA) at the all-India level.

As per the second advance estimates, the production of kharif and rabi foodgrains in 2023-24 was 1.3% lower than the final estimates of the previous year.

Also read: Guaranteed MSP is an ethical imperative

The output of millets could benefit from productivity gains, the report said.

MSPs in 2023-24 were increased in the range of 5.3-10.4% for the kharif crops and 2.0-7.1% for the rabi crops.

Moong witnessed the maximum MSP increase among kharif crops, while the increase was the highest for lentils (masur) and wheat among rabi crops.

A La Nina would have significant consequences for global agriculture because it typically brings wetter weather to eastern Australia and southeast Asia and drier conditions to the Americas.
| Photo Credit: Ritu Raj Konwar/The Hindu

There are early signs that a La Nina weather event may form in the Pacific Ocean later this year, Australia’s weather bureau said on Tuesday.

A La Nina would have significant consequences for global agriculture because it typically brings wetter weather to eastern Australia and southeast Asia and drier conditions to the Americas.

The bureau said it had declared a “La Nina Watch”.

“When La Nina Watch criteria have been met in the past, a La Nina event has subsequently developed around 50% of the time,” it said.

Also Read | El Niño, La Niña and changing weather patterns 

La Nina events result from cooler sea surface temperatures in the Pacific. Warmer sea surface temperatures can cause an opposite weather phenomenon called El Nino, which occurred last year and lasted into early 2024.

“Sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific have been steadily cooling since December 2023,” the bureau said.

“The Bureau’s modelling suggests that ENSO will likely remain neutral until at least July 2024,” it said, using the formal name, the El Niño Southern Oscillation, that describes the switch between the two phases.

Japan’s weather bureau has said there is a 90% chance that the El Nino phenomenon will dissipate by the end of May.

Other forecasters have also heralded a La Nina later this year. Last week, Japan’s weather bureau said there was a 60% chance it would occur by November, and a U.S. government forecaster said there was a 69% chance that it would develop during July-September.

An area is uncovered by the lowering of the water level from the Magdalena river, the longest and most important river in Colombia, due to the lack of rain, in the city of Honda, January 14, 2016. While flooding and intense rain wreak havoc on several countries in Latin America, El Nino brings other harmful effects to Colombia with severe drought.
| Photo Credit: Reuters

Japan’s weather bureau said on Friday there was a 90% chance that the El Nino phenomenon will dissipate by the end of May, while there was a 60% chance of the La Nina phenomenon occurring in the months up until November.

El Nino is a warming of ocean surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific. La Nina is characterised by unusually cold ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific region and is linked to floods and drought.

Watch | Earth Day: wake-up call on climate change

In this episode, we will be discussing Earth Day, which The Hindu covered with thematic articles on April 22.

We look at multiple dimensions of climate change, beginning with the most recent Supreme Court ruling on climate change in terms of the rights of us citizens of India to have protection from the deleterious impact of climate change.

We look at heatwave projections for the entire Asia region in terms of what impact it could have on livelihoods, employment etc. We will also look at how algorithms can be used to project future droughts and floods across the region. And finally, we touch on the critical issue of water management and why it matters in the context of water-food-land nexus which together has an enormous impact on the economy.

We are joined by Jacob Koshy, the Deputy Science Editor at The Hindu.

Host: Narayan Lakshman

Guest: Jacob Koshy

Production: Richard Kujur

Pea plants are damaged by drought, due to the El Nino weather phenomenon in Madrid municipality near Bogota, Colombia, January 17, 2016.
| Photo Credit: Reuters

Latin American nations must be on high alert as the weather phenomenon known as El Nino rapidly switches over to La Nina, experts said on Thursday, leaving populations and crops little time to recover.

El Nino and its abundant rains could soon turn into droughts caused by La Nina as well as an intense hurricane season across South America, experts said at a panel organized by the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).

The full weather pattern involving El Nino, La Nina and a neutral phase typically lasts between two to seven years. But experts said that the transition period from El Nino to La Nina is getting shorter.

“We just saw it happen,” said Yolanda Gonzalez, director of the International Research Center for the El Nino Phenomenon. “A year ago we came out of a Nina, and in March there were already signs of a Nino.”

“Now in March, April there are signs of a Nina,” she added. “We haven’t been able to recover from the impact.”

In South America, the weather patterns can hit key crops such as wheat and corn, denting commodity-dependent economies.

The phenomenon is not caused by climate change, FAO’s technical team told Reuters, but experts have seen that the effects of the weather pattern, such as rainfall, heat waves and drought, have become more extreme.

The rapid transitions between El Nino and La Nina could also be correlated with climate change, FAO said, though scientists have yet to establish definitive causation.

“These abrupt changes, and the fact that these cycles are now almost overlapping, ultimately decreases the ability to adapt to the changes,” said Marion Khamis, FAO’s regional risk management specialist. “This implies a huge challenge.”

Parents accompany their children from school after their classes in Manila on April 5, 2024.
| Photo Credit: AFP

Thousands of schools in the Philippines suspended in-person classes on April 5, the Education Department said, as parts of the tropical country endured dangerously high temperatures.

The months of March, April and May are typically the hottest and driest in the archipelago nation but conditions have been exacerbated by the El Nino weather phenomenon. Many schools have no air-conditioning, leaving students to swelter in crowded, poorly ventilated classrooms.

“Even my smartest student is not in the mood to answer questions because it’s very hot,” said Mayette Paulino, who teaches a grade two class of around 27 children near Manila. She said “students feel tired and seem sleepy” as the heat intensified in the afternoon.

The Department of Education has issued an advisory giving school heads the power to decide when to switch to remote learning “in cases of extreme heat and other calamities”.

Official figures for April 5 showed 5,288 schools suspended in-person classes, affecting more than 3.6 million students. That was higher than the 4,769 schools on April 4. Some schools have reduced class hours to avoid teaching during the hottest times of the day.

Bheapril Balbin, 37, whose two young children attend a primary school near Manila, supported the decision for students to stay home during the hot weather. “The heat is too much, my children couldn’t take it,” Bheapril told AFP.

“Some of their classmates got sick, they had a headache because of the extreme heat. My youngest has an asthma, extreme heat is bad for him.”

“The heat index was expected to reach the “danger” level of 42 or 43 degrees Celsius (107.6-109.4 degrees Fahrenheit) in several areas of the country on Friday,” the state weather forecaster said.

In Manila, the heat index was forecast to hit the “extreme caution” level of up to 40C (104F), when heat cramps and exhaustion are possible. The country’s heat index measures what a temperature feels like, taking into account humidity. Friday’s actual maximum temperature in Manila was 35.5C (95.9F).

“The heat will get worse because we’re not yet at the peak of the summer season,” Lorie Dela Cruz of the state weather forecaster told AFP, noting the first half of May was usually the hottest period. She said the actual temperature was “within the normal range” for this time of year. Nearly 300 schools in Manila had remote learning on April 5.

The central regions of the main island of Luzon were the hardest hit, with more than 1,600 schools suspending in-person classes. Save the Children Philippines chief Alberto Muyot said on Wednesday the extreme heat meant “children are simply unable to concentrate in the classroom and their health is also at risk”.

Harare, Zimbabwe:

Zimbabwe declared drought a national disaster on Wednesday, with President Emmerson Mnangagwa saying the country needed $2 billion in aid to help millions of people who are going hungry.

A severe dry spell induced by the El Nino weather pattern is wreaking havoc across southern Africa. 

“No Zimbabwean must succumb or die from hunger,” Mnangagwa told a press conference. 

“To that end, I do hereby declare a nationwide State of Disaster, due to the El Nino-induced drought.”  

Due to poor rains, more than 2.7 million people will not have enough food to put on the table this year, he said. 

This season’s grain harvest was expected to bring in just over half of the cereals needed to feed the nation, he said.

The naturally occurring El Nino climate pattern, which emerged in mid-2023, usually increases global temperatures for one year afterwards.

It is currently fuelling fires and record heat across the world.

In southern Africa, Zimbabwe is the third country to declare drought a national disaster after Malawi and Zambia.

The measure allows for more resources to address the crisis.

The drought has also affected electricity production, as Zimbabwe is highly reliant on hydroelectric power. 

According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the latest El Nino is one of the five strongest ever recorded, adding its impact will continue by fuelling heat trapped in the atmosphere by greenhouse gases.

El Nino reached a peak in December but should still result in above-normal temperatures until May over almost all land areas, the WMO said.

Major food growing areas in Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, Zambia and Zimbabwe received only 80 percent of average rainfall during the mid-November-to-February  southern hemisphere summer, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said, warning of an increased risk of food insecurity.

(This story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)

The Copernicus Climate Change Service said that every month since June last year has been the warmest such month on record.
| Photo Credit: AP

The world, last month, experienced the warmest February on record, with the average temperature being 1.77 degrees Celsius more than the February average for 1850-1900, the designated pre-industrial reference period, the European Union’s climate agency said on March 7.

The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) also said that every month since June last year has been the warmest such month on record.

Scientists attribute the exceptional warming to the combined effects of El Nino — a period of abnormal warming of surface waters in the central Pacific Ocean — and human-caused climate change.

C3S last month said the global mean temperature breached the 1.5-degree Celsius threshold for an entire year for the first time in January. A permanent breach of the 1.5-degree Celsius limit specified in the Paris Agreement, however, refers to long-term warming over many years.

Explained | How El Nino could impact the world’s weather in 2023-24

According to climate scientists, countries need to limit the global average temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial period to avoid the worst impacts of climate change.

Earth’s global surface temperature has already increased by around 1.1 degrees Celsius compared with the average in 1850-1900 — a level that has not been witnessed since 1,25,000 years, before the most recent ice age.

This warming is considered the reason behind record droughts, wildfires and floods worldwide. With an average temperature of 13.54 degrees Celsius, February 2024 was 0.12 degrees Celsius warmer than the previous warmest February in 2016, the EU’s climate agency said.

“The month was 1.77 degrees Celsius warmer than an estimate of the February average for 1850-1900, the designated pre-industrial reference period,” C3S said in an update.

The global average temperature for the last 12 months (March 2023–February 2024) is the highest on record, at 0.68 degrees Celsius above the 1991-2020 average and 1.56 degrees Celsius above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average.

“The daily global average temperature was exceptionally high during the first half of the month, reaching two degrees Celsius above the 1850-1900 levels on four consecutive days (February 8–11),” C3S scientists said.

The average global sea surface temperature (SST) for February 2024 was 21.06 degrees Celsius, the highest for any month in the dataset. The previous high was in August 2023 (20.98 degrees Celsius).

C3S director Carlo Buontempo said, “February joins the long streak of records of the last few months. As remarkable as this might appear, it is not really surprising as the continuous warming of the climate system inevitably leads to new temperature extremes.

“The climate responds to the actual concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere so, unless we manage to stabilise those, we will inevitably face new global temperature records and their consequences,” Mr. Buontempo said.

The World Meteorological Organization on Tuesday said the 2023-24 El Nino has peaked as one of the five strongest on record and will continue to impact global climate in the coming months despite a weakening trend.

The United Nations agency also said above-normal temperatures are predicted over almost all land areas between March and May. The WMO said there is about a 60% chance of El Nino persisting during March-May and an 80% likelihood of neutral conditions (neither El Nino nor La Nina) from April to June.

There is a chance of La Nina developing later in the year, but those odds are currently uncertain, it said. Scientists closely tracking the development in India have said La Nina conditions setting in by June-August could mean monsoon rains would be better this year than in 2023.

El Nino — a periodic warming of the ocean surface in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean — occurs every two to seven years on average and typically lasts nine to 12 months.

It is associated with increased rainfall in the Horn of Africa and the southern U.S., and unusually dry and warm conditions in Southeast Asia, Australia and southern Africa.

A woman pours water on her head as bathers enjoy a summer day due to the high temperatures at Agua Dulce beach in the Chorrillos district in Lima, Peru, February 25, 2024.
| Photo Credit: Reuters

The 2023-24 El Nino has peaked as one of the five strongest on record and will continue to impact global climate in the coming months despite a weakening trend, the World Meteorological Organisation said on Tuesday.

The UN agency also said above-normal temperatures are predicted over almost all land areas between March and May.

The prevailing El Nino conditions fuelled record temperatures and extreme events the world over, with 2023 being the warmest on record.

According to the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, the global mean temperature breached the 1.5-degree Celsius threshold for an entire year for the first time in January.

A permanent breach of the 1.5-degree Celsius limit, specified in the Paris Agreement, however, refers to long-term warming over many years.

In its latest update, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) said there is about a 60% chance of El Nino persisting during March-May and an 80% likelihood of neutral conditions (neither El Nino nor La Nina) during April to June.

There is a chance of La Nina developing later in the year but those odds are currently uncertain, it said.

Scientists closely tracking the development in India have said La Nina conditions setting in by June-August could mean monsoon rains would be better this year than in 2023.

El Nino — a periodic warming of the ocean surface in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean — occurs every two to seven years on an average, and typically lasts nine to 12 months.

It is associated with increased rainfall in the Horn of Africa and the southern US, and unusually dry and warm conditions in Southeast Asia, Australia and southern Africa.

“Every month since June 2023 has set a new monthly temperature record — and 2023 was, by far, the warmest year on record. El Nino has contributed to these record temperatures but heat-trapping greenhouse gases are unequivocally the main culprit,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.

“Ocean surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific clearly reflect El Nino. But sea-surface temperatures in other parts of the globe have been persistently and unusually high for the past 10 months. The January 2024 sea-surface temperature was by far the highest on record for January. This is worrying and cannot be explained by El Nino alone,” she said.

Scientists say El Nino typically has the greatest impact on the global climate in the second year of its development — 2024, in this instance.

The continuing, albeit weaker, El Nino and predicted above-normal sea-surface temperatures over much of the global oceans are expected to lead to above-normal temperatures over almost all land areas in the next three months, and influence regional rainfall patterns, according to a Global Seasonal Climate Update issued by the WMO.

The current El Nino event, which developed in June 2023, was at its strongest between November and January. It displayed a peak value of about 2.0 degrees Celsius above the 1991 to 2020 average sea-surface temperature for the eastern and central tropical Pacific Ocean. This made it one of the five strongest El Nino events ever, though it was weaker than the 1997-98 and 2015-2016 events.

El Nino is mainly a seasonal climate phenomenon with climate impacts on seasonal climate averages but can make extreme weather and climate-events more likely in certain regions.

The WMO said the seasonal forecasts are found to be more accurate during El Nino and La Nina events, particularly in the tropics, and this emphasises the pivotal role of early warnings to support decision-making and enhance preparedness and anticipatory action.

“El Nino events have a major impact on societies and economies. Accurate seasonal forecasts from the WMO community helped countries prepare in advance to try to limit the damage in climate sensitive sectors like agriculture, water resources and health. Early warnings of weather and climate extremes associated with El Nino have saved countless lives,” said WMO’s Saulo.

Scientists attribute the exceptional warming to the combined effects of El Niño. File photo
| Photo Credit: AP

The world last month experienced the warmest January on record, with the global mean temperature for the past 12 months exceeding the 1.5° Celsius threshold, according to the European climate agency.

However, this does not imply a permanent breach of the 1.5-degree Celsius limit specified in the Paris agreement, as it refers to long-term warming over many years.

Every month since June last year has been the warmest such month on record.

Scientists attribute the exceptional warming to the combined effects of El Niño — a period of abnormal warming of surface waters in the central Pacific Ocean — and human-caused climate change.

Also read: How climate change is making the world sick

The global average temperature in January was 1.66° Celsius above the January average for 1850-1900, the designated pre-industrial reference period.

With an average temperature of 13.14° Celsius, January 2024 was 0.12° Celsius warmer than the previous warmest January in 2020, the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) said.

Scientists at C3S said the global mean temperature for the past 12 months (February 2023-January 2024) was the highest on record and 1.52° Celsius above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average.

Paris agreement

In 2015, countries agreed in Paris to limit the average temperature rise to well below 2° Celsius, and preferably to 1.5° Celsius, compared to pre-industrial levels (1850-1900), to avoid worsening climate impacts.

Multiple reports suggest that the world is significantly off track to limit global warming to 1.5° Celsius. To achieve this goal, countries together need to cut down the emissions of planet-warming greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide and methane by 43% by 2030.

Samantha Burgess, Deputy Director of C3S, said that “2024 starts with another record-breaking month — not only is it the warmest January on record but we have also just experienced a 12-month period of more than 1.5° Celsius above the pre-industrial reference period”.

“Rapid reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are the only way to stop global temperatures from increasing.” The year 2023 was the warmest on record, with the average global temperature rise compared to pre-industrial levels nearing the 1.5° Celsius threshold.

The World Meteorological Organisation in December said 2024 could be worse as “El Nino typically has the greatest impact on global temperature after it peaks.”