India could see an estimated 15,800 additional heat-related deaths, give or take 1,600, between September 2026 and February 2027, as the current ‘Super El Niño’ drives unusually high temperatures, according to a report made public on Wednesday (September 23, 2026) by the Climate Impact Lab. The estimate is relative to average conditions during the corresponding months from 1996-2025.

Globally, the report projects 451,000 additional heat-related deaths during the first six months of the El Niño event, including 239,000 during the September 2026-February 2027 period. It projects 19,300 deaths in Indonesia; 19,400 across the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, and Cambodia; 13,300 in Brazil; and 66,800 across the Sahel, a 5,000-kilometre swathe of about 10 countries across Africa, including Senegal, the Gambia, and northern Nigeria.

“This report allows decision-makers to see exactly where emergency actions can be taken now to save tens of thousands of lives in the coming months,” Michael Greenstone, co-founder, Climate Impact Lab, University of Chicago, said.

The report describes the current event as a ‘Super El Niño’, an informal term generally used for exceptionally strong El Niño conditions. El Niño occurs when waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific become unusually warm, altering atmospheric circulation and shifting rainfall and temperature patterns worldwide. Forecasts earlier this month projected a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño during the northern hemisphere autumn and winter, with eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures already more than 3°C above normal.

Its effects are already being observed in different regions. Indonesia has experienced conditions conducive to wildfires, while parts of Central America have faced drought-related agricultural impacts. “This year’s El Niño is also a ‘postcard from our future’, bringing temperatures climate change is projected to deliver 20 years in the future. In this way, it offers a glimpse at what lies ahead without new investments in adaptation,” an accompanying press statement noted.

In India, the southwest monsoon is entering its withdrawal phase after a season marked by deficient rainfall. The national rainfall deficit stood at about 15% below normal up to September 22, 2026 with larger shortfalls in southern and eastern parts of the country.

The heat is also increasing the demand for electricity, with nearly 40% of India’s coal-fired power plants reporting critically low fuel stocks amid increased power demand associated with hotter than usual weather linked to the El Niño.

The study’s mortality estimate, however, comes with methodological limitations. The Climate Impact Lab says it applies previously estimated temperature-mortality relationships across 24,378 regions to seasonal temperature forecasts, accounting for local climate, vulnerability, and adaptive capacity. The report does not spell out the underlying numerical relationship or coefficients connecting a particular temperature increase to a number of deaths; it says full methodological details will appear in a forthcoming peer-reviewed paper.

Also Read : Explained | Why India is watching the El Niño forecast with bated breath 

Previous research has established an association between extreme heat and mortality. A 2024 multi-city study found heatwaves were associated with increased all-cause mortality across 10 Indian cities, while a global study estimated India accounted for about 20.7% of heatwave-related excess deaths during 1990-2019.

Absolute death totals also tend to be higher in more populous countries because more people are exposed, although population alone does not determine the burden — temperature, vulnerability, age structure, and adaptive capacity also matter. The summer heatwave across large parts of Europe killed at least 36,000 this year though the direct effects of an El Niño aren’t registered in the continent as much as in tropical countries.

Earlier this week, 188 Indian scientists and ecologists called for expanded monitoring of the El Niño’s effects on India’s marine, freshwater, and terrestrial ecosystems. “We need to mobilise resources now to design, deploy, and evaluate the preparation and planning tools that will save lives in the years ahead,” the release said.

Published – September 23, 2026 10:43 am IST

After the first month of this year’s monsoon ended in a massive 40% deficit, the India Meteorological Department has forecast that rainfall in July will also be “below normal” or less than 94% of what is usual for the month.  “Below-normal rainfall can pose significant challenges for agriculture, water resources, hydropower generation, ecosystem sustainability, and drinking water availability,” the agency warned. The outlook for July comes on the back of weak rainfall in June.

Data from the IMD showed rainfall in June was 99.5 mm against a long-period average of 165.3 mm, a fall of 39.8% from normal across all four meteorological subdivisions. The outlook comes weeks after Union Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan sounded the alarm, warning about the impact of a potential ‘super’ El Niño. “This could directly affect Kharif crops, particularly in rainfed regions where agriculture is heavily dependent on monsoon rains,” he told reporters on June 23, 2026.

How could a poor monsoon damage India’s economy? 

A poor monsoon can damage the economy in three ways: it affects agricultural output, reducing the sector’s contribution to the economy; it hits rural income, denting aggregate demand; and it threatens to push up food prices, causing inflation. 

India came into this kharif season from a position of strength — foodgrain output in 2024-25 jumped to 357.73 million metric tonnes (MMT), up 25.43 MMT from the previous year. A weak monsoon now puts that momentum at risk. 

In a report, CRISIL notes that while paddy acreage is expected to expand in Punjab, Haryana and Bihar, maize acreage is expected to decline as farmers shift towards more remunerative crops. Farmers might also prefer pulses, because of lower cultivation costs and water requirements, and may choose not to plant vegetables at all. Irrigation, MSP, procurement support and market conditions also factor in the decision-making process. 

This could trigger food and beverage inflation. In its June bulletin, the Reserve Bank of India warned: “An adverse south-west monsoon, if materialised, may weigh on the domestic growth-inflation outlook.”

The authors noted that CPI inflation had risen to 3.9% in May 2026, up from 3.5% in April, with broad-based increases across food, fuel, and core components. The report noted that daily price data up to June 18 showed food inflation continued to rise and the prices of edible oils, potatoes, onions and tomatoes edged up.

A weak monsoon, coupled with higher global food prices driven by higher fertiliser, edible oil, and shipping costs, will only push them higher.

Agriculture accounts for only one-fifth of India’s Gross Value Added (GVA) but employs 46% of the workforce and supports nearly 55% of the population. “It will have a direct impact on the lives of people,” said Prof. R. Ramakumar, School of Development Studies, Tata Institute of Social Sciences. 

Prof. Bharat Ramaswami, Department of Economics, Ashoka University, believes farm incomes could fall by up to 10%. “The rural non-farm sector consists mostly of non-traded services such as construction. These sectors contract when agriculture is adversely affected. Industries that depend on rural demand will be affected,” he said.

This stress moves into the wider economy. Automobile sales are a reliable early signal, two-wheelers and tractors are among the first sectors to feel the squeeze, followed by real estate in smaller towns and cities. Kotak Mutual Fund, in a blog, has noted that a combined El Niño-plus-drought scenario may shave 20–65 basis points off GDP growth. 

Compounding the pressure are pests and fertiliser supply constraints caused by the Iran war. The Union Cabinet approved a ₹41,533 crore Nutrient-Based Subsidy for Phosphatic and Potassic fertilizers for the kharif season, covering 28 grades. If output still falls short, the government will have to release buffer stocks and import commodities, widening the Current Account Deficit and putting pressure on the rupee.

“The danger in 2026 is that the weak monsoon is coinciding with the outcomes of the West Asian conflict,” Prof. Ramakumar said, noting that Prime Minister Modi urged citizens in May to limit gold purchases and foreign travel to ease stress on India’s foreign reserves.

India’s agri-exports face a threat too. “Agriculture exports have clocked a CAGR of 8.2% between fiscals 2020 and 2025, contributing 12% to India’s core exports. That too, faces a threat,” said Dipti Deshpande, Principal Economist, CRISIL.

How did El Niño impact the economy?  

Historically, El Niño has posed significant risks. Several of India’s worst droughts fell in El Niño years – 1972, 1982, 2009, and 2015. “In the 11 instances of below-normal or deficient monsoon performance at an all-India level since 2000, six were classified as El Niño years by the IMD. Of these, five saw deficient rainfall,” Ms. Deshpande said.

The 2009 and 2015 failures illustrate the different impact poor monsoons can have on the economy. “Two subsequent years of rainfall stress and all-India average irrigation cover less than 45%, caused agriculture output to suffer – crop GVA contracted 2.5% and 3.2% in fiscals 2009 and 2010, respectively. Inflation was in double digits,” she said. 

El Niño conditions moved from weak to strong in 2014 and 2015, and both years saw monsoon disruptions. Crop GVA contracted, but the impact on inflation was different.

Unlike 2009, when food inflation spiked, inflation was rather muted in 2015 due to proactive food management, restrained MSP hikes, and a global commodity price slump, which kept overall prices in check despite the monsoon failure, Ms. Deshpande noted.

The average kharif output losses have fallen from 17% in early El Niño episodes (FY03, FY10) to just 1.4% from FY15 onwards, according to Equirus Securities. But prolonged episodes still take a toll as agri GVA has averaged just 1.3% in El Niño years against 5.5% in normal years, it notes. “A second successive bad weather will be more damaging,” Prof. Ramaswami said. 

Can India ‘drought-proof’ the economy?

Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan’s presser raised an important data point: 315 districts are vulnerable to a poor monsoon, of which 111 across 12 states are of primary concern due to poor irrigation facilities. With more than half of India’s cultivated land still rain-fed and groundwater tables declining, a poor monsoon adds pressure to an already stressed system. 

India needs to ‘drought-proof’ its economy, said Prof. Ramakumar. He said the country must move from crop insurance to ex-ante risk reduction. “We need to pay attention to policies and interventions that reduce risk itself. That requires public investment, and that’s lacking,” he said. He added that India needs enough drought-resistant, high-yielding crops, and that farmers must have access to them. “We have not invested adequately in any of these, and hence our disaster preparedness is very poor,” he said. 

“India does spend a lot of resources on crop insurance. However, we spend no money on evaluating how the benefits reach the farmers. We will not be able to rely only on crop insurance. I expect the government will have to offer drought relief as well,” Prof. Ramaswami said. 

After the first month of this year’s monsoon ended in a massive 40% deficit, the India Meteorological Department has forecast that rainfall in July will also be “below normal” or less than 94% of what is usual for the month.  “Below-normal rainfall can pose significant challenges for agriculture, water resources, hydropower generation, ecosystem sustainability, and drinking water availability,” the agency warned. The outlook for July comes on the back of weak rainfall in June.

Data from the IMD showed rainfall in June was 99.5 mm against a long-period average of 165.3 mm, a fall of 39.8% from normal across all four meteorological subdivisions. The outlook comes weeks after Union Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan sounded the alarm, warning about the impact of a potential ‘super’ El Niño. “This could directly affect Kharif crops, particularly in rainfed regions where agriculture is heavily dependent on monsoon rains,” he told reporters on June 23, 2026.

How could a poor monsoon damage India’s economy? 

A poor monsoon can damage the economy in three ways: it affects agricultural output, reducing the sector’s contribution to the economy; it hits rural income, denting aggregate demand; and it threatens to push up food prices, causing inflation. 

India came into this kharif season from a position of strength — foodgrain output in 2024-25 jumped to 357.73 million metric tonnes (MMT), up 25.43 MMT from the previous year. A weak monsoon now puts that momentum at risk. 

In a report, CRISIL notes that while paddy acreage is expected to expand in Punjab, Haryana and Bihar, maize acreage is expected to decline as farmers shift towards more remunerative crops. Farmers might also prefer pulses, because of lower cultivation costs and water requirements, and may choose not to plant vegetables at all. Irrigation, MSP, procurement support and market conditions also factor in the decision-making process. 

This could trigger food and beverage inflation. In its June bulletin, the Reserve Bank of India warned: “An adverse south-west monsoon, if materialised, may weigh on the domestic growth-inflation outlook.”

The authors noted that CPI inflation had risen to 3.9% in May 2026, up from 3.5% in April, with broad-based increases across food, fuel, and core components. The report noted that daily price data up to June 18 showed food inflation continued to rise and the prices of edible oils, potatoes, onions and tomatoes edged up.

A weak monsoon, coupled with higher global food prices driven by higher fertiliser, edible oil, and shipping costs, will only push them higher.

Agriculture accounts for only one-fifth of India’s Gross Value Added (GVA) but employs 46% of the workforce and supports nearly 55% of the population. “It will have a direct impact on the lives of people,” said Prof. R. Ramakumar, School of Development Studies, Tata Institute of Social Sciences. 

Prof. Bharat Ramaswami, Department of Economics, Ashoka University, believes farm incomes could fall by up to 10%. “The rural non-farm sector consists mostly of non-traded services such as construction. These sectors contract when agriculture is adversely affected. Industries that depend on rural demand will be affected,” he said.

This stress moves into the wider economy. Automobile sales are a reliable early signal, two-wheelers and tractors are among the first sectors to feel the squeeze, followed by real estate in smaller towns and cities. Kotak Mutual Fund, in a blog, has noted that a combined El Niño-plus-drought scenario may shave 20–65 basis points off GDP growth. 

Compounding the pressure are pests and fertiliser supply constraints caused by the Iran war. The Union Cabinet approved a ₹41,533 crore Nutrient-Based Subsidy for Phosphatic and Potassic fertilizers for the kharif season, covering 28 grades. If output still falls short, the government will have to release buffer stocks and import commodities, widening the Current Account Deficit and putting pressure on the rupee.

“The danger in 2026 is that the weak monsoon is coinciding with the outcomes of the West Asian conflict,” Prof. Ramakumar said, noting that Prime Minister Modi urged citizens in May to limit gold purchases and foreign travel to ease stress on India’s foreign reserves.

India’s agri-exports face a threat too. “Agriculture exports have clocked a CAGR of 8.2% between fiscals 2020 and 2025, contributing 12% to India’s core exports. That too, faces a threat,” said Dipti Deshpande, Principal Economist, CRISIL.

How did El Niño impact the economy?  

Historically, El Niño has posed significant risks. Several of India’s worst droughts fell in El Niño years – 1972, 1982, 2009, and 2015. “In the 11 instances of below-normal or deficient monsoon performance at an all-India level since 2000, six were classified as El Niño years by the IMD. Of these, five saw deficient rainfall,” Ms. Deshpande said.

The 2009 and 2015 failures illustrate the different impact poor monsoons can have on the economy. “Two subsequent years of rainfall stress and all-India average irrigation cover less than 45%, caused agriculture output to suffer – crop GVA contracted 2.5% and 3.2% in fiscals 2009 and 2010, respectively. Inflation was in double digits,” she said. 

El Niño conditions moved from weak to strong in 2014 and 2015, and both years saw monsoon disruptions. Crop GVA contracted, but the impact on inflation was different.

Unlike 2009, when food inflation spiked, inflation was rather muted in 2015 due to proactive food management, restrained MSP hikes, and a global commodity price slump, which kept overall prices in check despite the monsoon failure, Ms. Deshpande noted.

The average kharif output losses have fallen from 17% in early El Niño episodes (FY03, FY10) to just 1.4% from FY15 onwards, according to Equirus Securities. But prolonged episodes still take a toll as agri GVA has averaged just 1.3% in El Niño years against 5.5% in normal years, it notes. “A second successive bad weather will be more damaging,” Prof. Ramaswami said. 

Can India ‘drought-proof’ the economy?

Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan’s presser raised an important data point: 315 districts are vulnerable to a poor monsoon, of which 111 across 12 states are of primary concern due to poor irrigation facilities. With more than half of India’s cultivated land still rain-fed and groundwater tables declining, a poor monsoon adds pressure to an already stressed system. 

India needs to ‘drought-proof’ its economy, said Prof. Ramakumar. He said the country must move from crop insurance to ex-ante risk reduction. “We need to pay attention to policies and interventions that reduce risk itself. That requires public investment, and that’s lacking,” he said. He added that India needs enough drought-resistant, high-yielding crops, and that farmers must have access to them. “We have not invested adequately in any of these, and hence our disaster preparedness is very poor,” he said. 

“India does spend a lot of resources on crop insurance. However, we spend no money on evaluating how the benefits reach the farmers. We will not be able to rely only on crop insurance. I expect the government will have to offer drought relief as well,” Prof. Ramaswami said. 

Essential to note here that India added a record 44.61 gigawatts of solar capacity in the fiscal year 2025-26, which was more than the double it had added in the preceding fiscal. File
| Photo Credit: The Hindu