The United States appears to be preparing to resume large-scale strikes against Iran, but there is unlikely to be a military solution for either side in the devastating conflict, experts said.

Washington and Tehran’s forces have settled into a pattern of strikes on commercial ships, with the United States seeking to enforce a blockade of Iran’s ports and the Islamic republic trying to exert control over the key Strait of Hormuz waterway.

Neither country has engaged in major attacks on land-based targets since early September, but that may soon change.

“I’m banking now on the likelihood of strikes shortly after the midterms,” said Suzanne Maloney, director of the foreign policy program at the Brookings Institution, referring to November 3 elections in the United States.

She pointed to potential signs, including the movement of additional U.S. military assets and troops to West Asia, warnings issued to Americans in the region, and a high alert status for Israeli forces.

Additionally, President Donald Trump “came out publicly and said that he wouldn’t strike before the midterms,” and “it wouldn’t seem to help him at the polls to do so,” Ms. Maloney said.

The U.S.-Israeli war against Iran is largely unpopular in the United States, especially because it has sharply driven up fuel prices and is likely to be a drag on Mr. Trump’s Republican Party in the key vote.

“Fundamentally, the situation isn’t sustainable in its current state,” Ms. Maloney said, noting that the U.S. blockade is “creating greater pain for the Iranians,” while Washington has a large number of naval assets tied up in enforcing it.

Mr. Trump said on Friday (October 23, 2026) that “we may do another little Epic Fury” — the name for the U.S. operation against Iran that was launched in late February — if Tehran does not make a deal, but gave no indication on timing.

‘Impossible to predict’

Jason Campbell, a senior fellow at the Institute, said there have “certainly been recent signs that renewed strikes may be in the offing,” or that “the US is expecting strikes carried out by Iran” or their Houthi allies in Yemen.

He noted the planned deployment of the USS Theodore Roosevelt to West Asia — which could at least temporarily bring the number of carrier strike groups there to three — as well as the decision to dispatch another Marine Expeditionary Unit to the region.

Mr. Campbell also said Israeli warplanes recently carried out a “show of force” mimicking previous strikes on Iran, and noted that U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth had met with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel.

However, “timing here is impossible to predict,” he said of renewed strikes, while noting that “this is admittedly an expansive set of actions to take if the intent is to simply pressure Iran to the negotiating table.”

Mr. Campbell said Mr. Trump’s options are more limited than they were earlier in the conflict, with damage to U.S. bases in the region having made any potential ground operation more difficult.

“At this point, there is no safe place to stage the thousands (in some scenarios tens of thousands) of forces that would be required for such an operation,” he said.

Ms. Maloney, meanwhile, said that “most of the conventional military sites (in Iran) have already been heavily degraded” by previous strikes, meaning any new campaign will likely “entail more strikes on civilian infrastructure and targets that impact the Iranian population.”

But that — or any type of military action — is unlikely to bring about a resolution to the conflict.

“From the start… this has been a war that can’t be ended with further escalation on either side,” Ms. Maloney said.

Mr. Campbell agreed, saying, “I do not see how renewed strikes on Iran akin to the first fifty days of the war will move the strategic needle for the Iranian regime.”

“They have demonstrated a willingness to absorb a significant amount of physical pain and even some alterations to targeting that includes key mixed or even civilian infrastructure will not significantly change this,” he added.

Published – October 24, 2026 08:20 am IST

With about 10 days left for the U.S. midterm elections on November 3, talk of a Democratic wave has shifted from opinion polls to voting reality. Every major forecast now predicts the Democrats will win the House of Representatives. Statistician Nate Silver gives them a 75% chance of winning the Senate, which Republicans held strongly just a month ago. The Grand Old Party faces five main problems: a President who is a liability, weak candidates, money not swaying voters, fissures in their heartland, and a party base turning against its own.

A President on the defensive

Let us begin with the President. Midterms are often a verdict on the White House. Donald Trump has made this election about himself, telling crowds to “pretend I’m on the ballot”. His approval rating is below 40%. In September, he told Republicans in tight races that he would visit “every one of those 35 places”. But he has campaigned in fewer than a third. Most stops have been in States he won easily, such as Oklahoma, Alabama, Tennessee, and Montana, which he said was his way “to thank them”. When a President rallies supporters in States that he won by huge margins two years earlier instead of margin seats, it conveys a hint of desperation.

Also read | U.S. midterms — Donald Trump’s test, India’s stakes

The next issue is candidate quality. Texas has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1988. This year, the Republican nominee is Ken Paxton, who was impeached by the Texas House in 2023 and later acquitted by the State Senate. He was also observed partying in 2025 in Dubai with two Pakistani-American federal fugitives who were also his donors. His Democratic opponent, James Talarico, a former teacher and State legislator, was leading by two points in a Fox News poll (but the latest Fox News poll listed for October 15-19 showed a 49%-49% tie); and by three points in a University of Texas poll (September 25-October 5).

The third problem is in the heartland. Kansas has sent only Republicans to this Senate seat since 1919, the longest streak for any party in U.S. history. Republican incumbent Roger Marshall is tied in the polls with Adam Hamilton, a Methodist pastor who started one of the country’s largest churches. In Nebraska — a State Mr. Trump won by over 20 points — Democrats have stepped aside for Dan Osborn, a former union leader running as an independent. He is about three points behind Senator Pete Ricketts. When a party spends the last two weeks defending strongholds of Kansas and Nebraska, it is on the back foot.

The fourth issue is money. Elon Musk, who split from Mr. Trump last year, is now the biggest known donor in this election, having given over $276 million to Republican groups since July. Recent filings show that Mr. Musk gave $158 million to the Senate Leadership Fund and a separate $10 million to Lone Star Liberty PAC, which supports Mr. Paxton’s Senate campaign. Even so, Mr. Talarico, the Democratic candidate, is still ahead. Money can buy TV advertisements, but it cannot easily overcome a national mood shaped by high prices, an unpopular war with Iran, and immigration raids.

The lesson from Ohio

Ohio combines these issues, making it the most revealing race. Vivek Ramaswamy, a former presidential candidate backed by Mr. Trump, seemed confirmed for Governor in a State that the President has won three times. His opponent, Amy Acton, looked like an easy target. As Ohio’s highly unpopular health director during the COVID-19 pandemic, she ordered lockdowns, faced armed protesters at her home, and had Republicans try to strip her powers before she resigned in 2020. Mr. Ramaswamy and his supporters have spent about $101 million on advertisements, including $36 million of his own money, about three times what Ms. Acton has spent. Still, he was trailing her recently by about three points on average. Among independent voters, his net rating is minus 25, the lowest for a Republican candidate for Governor in Ohio this century.

This week, his campaign announced plans to spend $4 million promoting an advertisement featuring Ms. Acton’s estranged mother calling her a liar, drawing criticism from Republicans, including Governor Mike DeWine and Senator Jon Husted.

Much of this can be explained by the national mood, since the party’s Senate candidate in Ohio is also behind by a similar amount. But some of Mr. Ramaswamy’s problems come from within his own party. His rival in the Republican primary, Casey Putsch, posted a video of himself with a rifle inviting him to play “cowboys versus Indians”. He called Mr. Ramaswamy an “anchor baby” and said that there was “nothing remotely American” about him. Still, nearly one in five Republican primary voters picked Mr. Putsch. Far-right commentator Nick Fuentes told his followers to oppose Mr. Ramaswamy, while students at a conservative youth event questioned whether a Hindu could represent a Christian State. The anger goes back to the H-1B controversy in December 2024, when Mr. Ramaswamy said American culture undervalued excellence, which angered ‘Make America Great Again’ (MAGA) voters. Now, the same party that once questioned who belongs in America is asking the same question about its own candidate.

Self-inflicted wounds

Ohio is an apt lesson for the Republicans. A party can get through having an unpopular President, a weak candidate, or a tough electoral map in any given year. But it is much harder when all these problems happen at once and the party’s base starts judging its own candidates by their race, background and religion. If Democrats win Texas, Kansas, Nebraska, or Ohio on November 3, it will be a wave, and the Republicans will have helped make it. Perhaps they deserve that loss.

Anil Raman is a retired Brigadier and a research fellow in the Geopolitics Program of Takshashila Institution

Published – October 24, 2026 12:36 am IST

U.S. President Donald Trump.
| Photo Credit: Reuters

The Trump administration is asking a federal judge to let it reconsider a major federal permit granted for a large offshore wind farm, making it the fourth project the Republican leadership has targeted in recent months.

The Interior Department wants to reconsider its own approval for the “construction and operations plan” for the New England Wind project off Massachusetts. The plan was approved in 2024 during the Biden administration. The Justice Department said in a filing on Tuesday (October 20, 2026) that the Court should send the permit back to Interior, because the plan was approved despite major adverse impacts.

Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, a Rhode Island Democrat, warned that the administration now risks derailing a legislative effort to speed up permitting reviews for new energy and infrastructure projects. The Senate reached a bipartisan deal in September on a permitting bill, which has not yet been voted on.

“This is how you blow up a permitting deal,” he said in a statement on Wednesday (October 21, 2026).

The Trump administration is using executive orders, agency actions and the courts to try to stop the development of offshore wind, a technology that President Donald Trump has attacked as “ugly” and unreliable compared to fossil fuels such as coal and natural gas. Officials started buying back offshore wind leases after federal judges blocked its efforts to stop construction on five major East Coast projects.

The Interior Department also wants to reconsider its prior approval of the construction and operations plan for Revolution Wind, a wind farm for Rhode Island and Connecticut that has finished construction, and for the Maryland Offshore Wind Project, which has not yet begun construction.

In August, a judge granted the administration’s request to reconsider the permit for the stalled New Jersey project Atlantic Shores. That project had been halted soon after Mr. Trump returned to office because co-owner Shell walked away from it.

Last year, a federal judge said the Trump administration could reconsider the permit granted to the Massachusetts project SouthCoast Wind days before the President’s inauguration to a second term.

Pasha Feinberg, an offshore wind strategist at the Natural Resources Defence Council, said the Trump administration’s attacks on offshore wind are escalating at a time when Americans are struggling with surging utility bills.

“It’s long past time for the Trump administration to realise its war on clean energy is backfiring,” Mr. Feinberg said.

The National Ocean Industries Association, which represents offshore industries including oil and wind, said it’s concerned about the uncertainty that comes with reopening federal approvals for offshore energy projects, particularly those already under construction or in operation.

“The Senate has made meaningful progress on deep reforms that would provide greater certainty for energy projects across the board,” said the association’s president, Erik Milito. The administration’s actions “underscore why Congress needs to get this done”, he said.

The plans for New England Wind call for up to 129 wind turbines that could supply as much as 2,600 megawatts of clean energy to power more than 900,000 homes each year. The developer, Avangrid, declined to comment on Wednesday (October 21, 2026). Construction has not begun.

The project’s federal approval was challenged in court by ACK for Whales, a group of Nantucket, Massachusetts, residents who say they are concerned about the negative impacts of offshore wind development. The lawsuit in District Court for the District of Columbia contends that the federal government failed to comply with numerous statutes.

The federal defendants in the case filed a motion on Tuesday (October 20, 2026) stating that remand of the permit is warranted, so Interior could make a new decision. The government also told the Court in 2025 it wanted to reconsider New England Wind’s approval.

Interior said in a statement on Wednesday (October 21, 2026) that the latest filing complied with a briefing schedule and was not announcing a policy change. Its position on offshore wind has remained consistent throughout this administration, the statement said.

Avangrid built another wind farm, Vineyard Wind, off the coast of Massachusetts in a joint venture with Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners. Construction finished in March, making it the first project to reach this stage during Mr. Trump’s time in office. Vineyard Wind was one of the projects the administration tried to halt construction on, citing concerns over national security.

Published – October 22, 2026 07:12 am IST

U.S. President Donald Trump.
| Photo Credit: Reuters

U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday (October 19, 2026) used violent unrest in France as an argument against Democrats in his ‌battle to defend a Kansas Senate seat long held by Republicans but in danger of falling to his political opponents.

Mr. Trump’s rally ​on behalf of Republican incumbent Roger Marshall was his latest foray into conservative states where Republican candidates are on defense due ⁠to voter frustrations over the Iran war and rising prices.

“I love you Kansas, but I’m here for a guy named Roger Marshall,” Mr. Trump said.

In a new addition to his stump speech, Mr. Trump pointed to widespread protests in France as a scenario that could erupt in the United States unless Republicans win. He provided no evidence.

France in recent days ‌has seen some of the worst unrest in years as huge protests over the cost of living and underfunded public services descended into riots and looting.

Mr. Trump himself has struggled to make goods and services more affordable in the United States.

In his speech, Mr. Trump turned ‌to anti-immigrant and anti-Muslim rhetoric, the type that he used to fuel his three presidential campaigns.

“We’re not going to let that happen to ‌this ⁠country,” he said. “When you see burning steeples and raging fires in France, just remember that is what the radical Dumocrats want to ⁠do to America.”

Mr. Trump has been mocking Democrats by calling them Dumocrats. Rights advocates have repeatedly criticised Mr. Trump for his rhetoric over the years, in which he has targeted and mocked immigrants and ethnic minority groups. Civil rights groups say such rhetoric normalizes discriminatory attitudes towards those communities.

Kansas competition

Kansas, a conservative Midwestern state Mr. Trump won by 16 points in 2024, has not elected a Democrat to ​the U.S. Senate in 94 years. First-term Senator Marshall is ‌in a close fight with Democratic candidate Adam Hamilton, pastor of a Methodist megachurch, who is running against Mr. Trump’s tariff agenda and what he calls the President’s “erratic leadership.”

“He wants you to repent for being born White,” Mr. Trump said of Mr. Hamilton.

Mr. Marshall, in remarks to the rally, led his campaign argument on cultural issues like stopping “radical Islam.” He called Hamilton “too woke” for Kansas because he supports gay pride parades, which the crowd loudly booed.

“We need someone ‌who can sort heifers and steers,” he said.

In response, Hamilton’s campaign spokesperson called Marshall’s campaign “sinking.”

“Nothing said at the rally can distract from ​the fact Kansans are being crushed by rising gas and diesel prices, struggling to access affordable healthcare, and are tired of Washington corruption,” the spokesperson, Tyson Brody, said.

In a video released on Monday (October 19, 2026), Mr. Hamilton welcomed Mr. Trump to the state and said his supporters have “a ⁠place” in his campaign. Mr. Hamilton said he will work with Mr. Trump when it makes sense and stand up for Kansans when Washington policies hurt farmers and rural hospitals.

The tightness of the race is emblematic of the challenges looming for Republicans in the November 3 midterm elections as they try to defy political headwinds and ‌retain control of the Senate and the House of Representatives.

Mr. Trump is deep into a 32-day campaign blitz, frequently going to friendly areas that he won handily in previous elections.

One Republican familiar with Mr. Trump’s midterm strategy said the president’s attention to rural parts of the country is in response to internal polling showing soft support from men 55 years and younger in rural areas nationwide, a voting bloc crucial to Mr. Trump’s 2024 presidential win.

Economic concerns

The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll, published on Monday (October 19, 2026), found that 31% of Americans approve of Mr. Trump’s performance in office, a record low for the President.

Democrats need a net gain of four seats in both the U.S. House of Representatives and U.S. Senate to overturn Republicans’ narrow 218-214 and 53-47 majorities.

In Park City, near Wichita, many rallygoers walked more than ‌a mile across Interstate 135 to reach the rural arena, as a red-and-green truck stop sign flashed its latest prices above their heads: $3.98 for gas and $5.78 for diesel.

That is up ​about 45% compared to average gas prices in the state last year, according to motoring club AAA.

Economic concerns were palpable among Mr. Trump’s most loyal supporters.

“Being on disability, I don’t have much, but it seems like the prices are still going up and ⁠they need to come down. It feels like you’re having to search or hunt for food,” said Monique Mullen, 59, a Republican voter from Hutchinson, Kansas, who takes ⁠care of her father.

A small bloc of protesters gathered near the arena, including James Nightingale, a self-described independent from Halstead, Kansas.

“I’m a farmer from Kansas, and the Trump administration has decimated the farm economy in my area. Not only have his tariffs decimated our markets for ‌grain sales; now he is bringing in imported beef from outside the country. What happened to ‘America First’?” he said.

Kansans have proven a willingness to cross parties, as voters have elected a Democratic governor, Laura Kelly, for the last two terms. “I don’t think it’s ever easy to get ​elected here,” said Gina Seman, a Trump voter from Towanda, Kansas, noting that Republican candidates in the past have taken their popularity for granted.

Published – October 20, 2026 11:07 am IST

U.S. President Donald Trump heads to Kansas on Monday (October 19, 2026) to open a seven-state campaign blitz through territory he carried in 2024, as dismal polls and unexpectedly tight races in Republican strongholds stoke fears of sweeping Democratic gains in November’s midterms.

With 15 days until the November 3 vote, Mr. Trump’s rally on the outskirts of Wichita aims to shore up Senator Roger Marshall, who is locked in a dead heat with a Methodist megachurch pastor.

Mr. Trump won Kansas by 16 percentage points just two years ago, and the state has not elected a Democratic senator since 1932.

Yet analysts now rate it a “toss-up,” and a key fundraising group for Republican senators has diverted money from North Carolina to defend a seat it once took for granted.

The University of Virginia’s Center for Politics said it hesitated before moving deeply conservative Kansas into “toss-up” category — its most competitive — but was swayed by signs that a “full-on Republican rescue operation appears underway for Marshall.”

Control of Congress may hinge on such races, with Republicans holding slender majorities in both chambers, and Democrats needing a net gain of just four seats to capture the Senate.

Soaring costs 

Over the coming six days, Mr. Trump will follow Kansas with rallies in the Carolinas, Iowa, Florida, Georgia and Michigan. All seven states backed him in 2024, though his margins in Michigan, Georgia and North Carolina were narrow.

The schedule suggests the aim is less to win over undecided voters than to fire up loyal supporters, many of whom stay home when he is not on the ballot.

Two stops, North Carolina and Iowa, are damage control in Republican-held seats, and many national party officials have all but written off North Carolina.

Elsewhere, the party is on the offensive, targeting a Democratic-held seat in Michigan, though it has struggled to make headway in Georgia.

Vice President J.D. Vance is campaigning separately in North Carolina, in Ohio and in Nebraska, where the sitting Republican senator is fending off a strong challenge from an independent.

A Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos survey published on Sunday (October 18) put Mr. Trump’s approval rating at 33%, the lowest of either of his terms in that poll, with 66% disapproving. An NBC News poll released the same day had him at 34%.

Asked which party they would back for Congress, likely voters favored Democrats by eight points in the Post-ABC poll, and registered voters by 10 points in NBC’s.

The figures point to a possible Democratic wave, although national polls do not translate neatly into seats, particularly after partisan redistricting, and they can miss by several points in either direction.

Headwinds

The economy has become a heavy liability for a president who promised to bring prices down.

Fuel costs have soared since the United States went to war with Iran and tariffs have added to the strain on consumers, especially farmers in agricultural states such as Iowa and Kansas.

Even immigration, still Mr. Trump’s best-rated issue, is drawing a backlash, with 56% in the Post-ABC poll saying his deportation campaign has gone too far.

Democrats are turning that discontent into campaign cash. Third-quarter filings showed their Senate candidates far outraising Republicans in Ohio, Iowa and other key races.

Just over nine million votes have already been cast nationwide, according to the University of Florida’s Election Lab.

In Texas, where early voting began on Monday (October 19), Democrat James Talarico raised about $64 million, a record quarter for a Senate candidate, and more than triple Republican Ken Paxton’s $18 million.

In House races, at least 47 Republican incumbents were outraised by Democratic or independent challengers, according to Punchbowl News.

Republicans are relying on outside groups to close the gap, bankrolled in part by Elon Musk, the world’s richest person, who has given some $366 million this election cycle, including $158 million to Paxton.

In the face of the multiple headwinds facing Republicans, Senator James Lankford refused to accept on Sunday (October 18) that a bad election night was inevitable.

“Only God knows what actually will happen,” the Oklahoma conservative told NBC. “Elections are about who actually shows up and votes.”

Published – October 19, 2026 10:48 pm IST

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa addresses the nation. File
| Photo Credit: AP

President Donald Trump speaks at a dinner at his Mar-a-Lago club on October 17, 2026
| Photo Credit: AP

New White House Press Secretary Katie Zacharia holds her first press briefing at the White House in Washington, DC, U.S., October 13, 2026.
| Photo Credit: Reuters