Tokyo:

Some Asian countries stand to gain if US president-elect Donald Trump pushes ahead with his promised massive tariffs on China and triggers a new wave of factory relocations to the rest of the region.

But a trade war between the world’s biggest economies would also destabilise markets everywhere, with Asia — which contributes the largest share of global growth — the most affected.

Trump, who won a crushing presidential victory this week, vowed during his campaign to slap 60 per cent tariffs on all Chinese goods entering the United States in an attempt to balance trade between the two nations.

Analysts however question whether the new president will stick to such a high figure, and dispute the blow such tariffs could inflect on the Chinese economy, estimating GDP could be lowered by between 0.7 per cent and 1.6 per cent.

The cooling effect would also make waves throughout Southeast Asia, where production chains are closely linked to China and enjoy significant investment from Beijing.

“Lower US demand for Chinese goods due to higher tariffs on China will translate into lower demand for ASEAN exports, even if there aren’t US tariffs levied directly onto those economies,” said Adam Ahmad Samdin, of Oxford Economics.

Indonesia is particularly exposed through its strong exports of nickel and minerals, but China is also the top trading partner of Japan, Taiwan and South Korea.

In addition to China, Donald Trump has also warned of an increase of 10 to 20 per cent on duties for all imports, as part of his protectionist policies and fixation that other countries take advantage of the US.

“The extent of these effects likely depends on the direct exposure of each economy to the US,” said Samdin, who added that America accounts for a 39.1 per cent share of Cambodian exports, 27.4 per cent from Vietnam, 17 per cent from Thailand and 15.4 per cent from the Philippines.

India to be targeted? 

Trump first slapped China with heavy tariffs in 2018 during his first administration, leading to the emergence of “connector countries”, through which Chinese companies passed their products to avoid American taxes.

Those countries could be in the line of fire now.

“Vietnam’s electronics exports to the US could also be targeted by Trump, in a bid to halt the diversion of Chinese electronic products to the US via Vietnam since 2018,” said Lloyd Chan, a senior analyst at MUFG, Japan’s largest bank.

“This is not inconceivable. Trade rewiring has notably gained traction in the region’s electronics value chain.”

“India could itself become a target of protectionist measures by the US due to the large share of Chinese components in Indian products,” added Alexandra Hermann, an economist with Oxford Economics.

Trump could also impose higher tariffs on Indian goods in sectors such as “automobiles, textiles, pharmaceuticals and wines, which could make Indian exports less competitive in the US”, said Ajay Srivastava of the New Delhi-based Global Trade Research Initiative.

A trade war would be dangerous for India, said Ajay Sahai, director of the Federation of Indian Export Organisations.

“Trump is a transactional person. He may target higher tariffs on certain items of Indian exports so he can negotiate for lower tariffs for US products in India,” he told AFP.

Supply chain rejig 

In the medium term, these negative effects could be counterbalanced by establishing factories outside China to escape the fallout.

The “China+1” strategy initiated during Donald Trump’s first term saw production shifts to India, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam.

With its geographical position and cheap skilled labour, Vietnam has already been one of the main beneficiaries.

The country has notably received investments from Taiwanese Apple subcontractors Foxconn and Pegatron and South Korea’s Samsung, becoming the second-largest exporter of smartphones in the world behind China.

“The likelihood increases that even more businesses will want to… have a second, or third, production base outside China,” said Bruno Jaspaert, chairman of the European Chamber of Commerce in Vietnam.

Chinese firms themselves are investing massively from Vietnam to Indonesia in sectors including solar, batteries, electric vehicles and minerals.

“American companies and investors are very interested in opportunities in Vietnam and this will continue under the incoming Trump Administration,” said Adam Sitkoff, executive director of the American Chamber of Commerce in Hanoi.

But whether it is low-end or high-tech production, China’s competitive advantage in terms of price, scale and quality is difficult to reproduce, warns Nomura Bank.

A reorganisation of production chains could lead to a “loss of efficiency” and increased prices, “with a negative impact on global growth”, Thomas Helbling, deputy director of the IMF for Asia, recently explained to AFP.

Asian countries could therefore gain export market share but ultimately see their situation deteriorate amid weakening global demand.

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump and Melania Trump on stage during a rally at Madison Square Garden, in New York, on October 27, 2024.
| Photo Credit: Reuters

U.S. Republican Donald Trump led a headline-grabbing New York rally on Sunday (October 27, 2024) with nonstop attacks on Kamala Harris, but Democrats sought to capitalise on crude insults from some of his allies’ opening speeches.

Mr. Trump took to the stage at the iconic 20,000-seat Madison Square Garden arena to deliver a closing message in the exceedingly tight race for the White House that reaches its apogee on November 5.

ALSO READ: Caught in intersections, the Harris multicultural tent

“You’ve destroyed our country. We’re not going to take it anymore, Kamala,” the 78-year-old told roaring supporters wearing trademark red “Make America Great Again” hats.

Several speakers drew cheers with their own barbs against Ms. Harris as well as Puerto Rico and Latinos at the rally in the Democratic stronghold city.

Comedian Tony Hinchcliffe took aim at birthrates among Latinos and called the caribbean U.S. territory Puerto Rico “a floating island of garbage”.

‘Not a punchline’

Ms. Harris, 60, seized on the attacks as she competes with the ex-president to win over Puerto Rican communities in the tight battleground states expected to decide the election.

“Puerto Ricans deserve a president who sees and invests in (their) strength,” Harris said in a clip published on social media alongside Hinchcliffe’s comments.

Pennsylvania Senator John Fetterman, a Democrat, noted the state is home to almost half a million Puerto Ricans and nearly three quarters are able to vote.

Ricky Martin, the Puerto Rican superstar with 18.6 million followers on Instagram, quickly shared a video of Ms. Harris’s appeal to Puerto Rican voters, along with a clip of Hinchcliffe’s remarks.

“This is what they think of us,” Mr. Martin wrote in Spanish. “Vote for @kamalaharris.”

Bad Bunny endorses Harris

Puerto Rican singer Bad Bunny also showed support for the vice president by sharing one of her videos to his 45.6 million followers on Instagram.

Mr. Trump’s rally at “The World’s Most Famous Arena” included a surprise appearance by his wife Melania and backers such as billionaire Elon Musk, who has personally hit the campaign trail for the ex-president.

However, the venue also hosted a far-right, pro-Hitler rally in 1939, complete with eagles, Nazi insignia and salutes — an association that has generated darker headlines.

Professional wrestling legend Hulk Hogan, who also spoke at the Republican convention in July, rejected criticisms of the rally: “I don’t see any Nazis in here.”

Harris ‘boots on ground’

Other speeches also drew concern and criticism, including from Stephen Miller, one of Trump’s most hard-right advisors.

“America is for Americans and Americans only,” he shouted into the microphone, after pledging a crackdown on cartels and “criminal migrants”.

While former Fox News host Tucker Carlson took a mocking shot at Ms. Harris’s background, calling her “a Samoan Malaysian low I.Q. former California prosecutor”.

Ms. Harris, meanwhile, charged through a packed day of campaigning in must-win Pennsylvania’s largest city, including stops at a Black church, a barbershop and a Puerto Rican restaurant.

With barely a week to go, she was leaving nothing to chance in Philadelphia, where she must run up her vote tally to win the battleground State.

“We must not wake up the day after the election and have any regrets,” she told a rally in Philadelphia.

Sunday’s visit was the vice president’s 14th trip to Pennsylvania since she jumped to the top of the ticket after President Joe Biden’s shock withdrawal in July.

“This is the closest and the best opportunity we have to have a female in office who happes to be a Black female,” Myrda Scott, from Philadelphia, told AFP at one of Ms. Harris’s rallies in the city.

Ms. Harris rolled up to Philly Cuts barber shop in the largely Black neighborhood of West Philadelphia to meet residents, before ducking into the African-American-themed Hakim’s Bookstore & Gift Shop.

“She’s boots to the ground,” 43-year-old African-American woman Myrda Scott, who runs a financial firm, told AFP as she awaited Ms. Harris at a youth basketball rec center rally.

On Tuesday (October 29, 2024), Ms. Harris will hold a major rally in Washington near the White House in the park where Mr. Trump fired up his supporters before they stormed the U.S. Capitol to try to overturn the 2020 election result.

Republican presidential nominee, former President Donald Trump attends a town hall event hosted by Fox News on October 15, 2024, in Cumming, Georgia.
| Photo Credit: AFP

Kamala Harris spent much of Tuesday (October 15, 2024) questioning Donald Trump’s mental state and fitness for office after the 78-year-old Republican’s latest televised town hall veered into a surreal, impromptu music session.

“Hope he’s okay,” the Democratic candidate posted on X.

Ms. Harris’s campaign, which has begun to aggressively challenge Mr. Trump on his health and mental stability, said that he appeared “lost, confused, and frozen on stage” during the Monday (October 14, 2024) event.

Former President Trump defended the event in the critical swing State of Pennsylvania, saying it was “so different.”

“It was amazing! The Q and A was almost finished when people began fainting from the excitement and heat,” Mr. Trump posted on his Truth Social network.

“We started playing music while we waited, and just kept it going. So different, but it ended up being a GREAT EVENING!”

He hit out at Vice President Harris, who released a White House medical report at the weekend that said she was fit for the highest office and challenged Mr. Trump to do the same.

“With all of the problems that she has, there is a real question as to whether or not she should be running for President! MY REPORT IS PERFECT — NO PROBLEMS!!!” Mr. Trump wrote.

‘Let’s just listen to music’

For about half an hour, the event in Oaks near Philadelphia was standard fare ahead of the November 5 election, as Mr. Trump took friendly questions from supporters on the economy and cost of living.

But it ended with a bizarre 39 minutes of music and dancing as Mr. Trump swayed awkwardly on stage following interruptions because of medical emergencies in the crowd.

“Who the hell wants to hear questions, right?” he said.

Mr. Trump has made a brief, jerky dance his signature at the end of rallies for years, nearly always to his exit song— the Village People’s 1978 disco anthem “YMCA.”

On Monday, however, he stayed on stage for nine songs, ranging from opera to Guns N’ Roses and Elvis, with the ex-president alternating his dance moves with standing in place and staring into the crowd.

Ms. Harris and Mr. Trump are locked in a dead heat, according to polls, and the election is set to be decided by seven swing states where the margins could come down to barely 10,000 votes each.

With only three weeks to go, the 59-year-old Democrat has increasingly been homing in on Mr. Trump’s health and age.

‘Obnoxious’ tariffs

It was the topic of her closing argument as she sat down with popular radio host Charlamagne tha God in an effort to boost her messaging to Black male voters— a part of the electorate where Trump has made gains.

After setting out her policies for improving the lives of Black men, she turned to Mr. Trump’s rallies and repeated a claim that riled him during their September debate— that bored supporters were leaving his rallies early.

“I will point out what everyone knows, which is that the people who worked the closest with Donald Trump when he was president— worked with him in the Oval Office, saw him at play in the Situation Room, his chief of staff, two secretaries of defence, his national security advisor and his former vice president — have all said he is dangerous and unfit to serve,” Ms. Harris said.

Mr. Trump’s own campaign schedule began with an Economic Club of Chicago event, where he said he was for slapping “obnoxious” tariffs on trading partners like Mexico so that companies move factories to the U.S.

“To me, the most beautiful word in the dictionary is the tariff,” Mr. Trump said, before heading for a rally in swing-State Georgia.

Mr. Trump is now the oldest person ever to be nominated for a presidential bid after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race following a disastrous debate that sparked fears about his own age.

He has not released a recent comprehensive report on his state of health, prompting fierce criticism from Harris.

Two members of Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump’s campaign staff had a “verbal and physical altercation” with an Arlington National Cemetery official during a visit by Trump this week, NPR reported on Tuesday.

Trump on Monday participated in a wreath-laying ceremony at Arlington National Cemetery honoring the 13 servicemembers killed during the US withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021.

Later in Detroit, Trump blamed Vice Preisdent Kamala Harris, his Democratic rival for the White House, and President Joe Biden for what he termed a “catastrophic” withdrawal.

Citing an unnamed source, NPR reported that when a cemetery official tried to prevent Trump campaign staffers from filming and photographing in an area where servicemembers are buried, the Trump staff “verbally abused and pushed the official aside.”

Trump campaign spokesperson Steven Cheung disputed the report. “There was no physical altercation as described and we are prepared to release footage if such defamatory claims are made,” Cheung said.

“The fact is that a private photographer was permitted on the premises and for whatever reason an unnamed individual, clearly suffering from a mental health episode, decided to physically block members of President Trump’s team during a very solemn ceremony.”

Arlington National Cemetery confirmed in a statement that an incident had occurred and that a report was filed.

“Federal law prohibits political campaign or election-related activities within Army National Military Cemeteries, to include photographers, content creators or any other persons attending for purposes, or in direct support of a partisan political candidate’s campaign,” the cemetery said.

It did not respond to requests for a copy of the report or an explanation of why the Trump campaign was allowed to visit the cemetery as part of his campaign.

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

Pennsylvania:

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump said on Saturday he believed Democrat Kamala Harris will be easier to beat than President Joe Biden even as some polls showed her edging ahead in the race for the Nov. 5 presidential election.

Trump, the former president, spoke at a rally in Wilkes-Barre in northeastern Pennsylvania, a state looming large in the campaign. Vice President Harris will conduct a bus tour of western Pennsylvania starting in Pittsburgh on Sunday, ahead of the kickoff of the Democratic National Convention on Monday in Chicago.

“I believe she will be easier to beat than him,” said Trump, referring to her as “radical” and a “lunatic.”

Trump has sought to portray Harris as far left on a number of policies. At the rally, he highlighted her previous call for a ban on fracking, an industry important to the state. Harris’ campaign has recently indicated she would not support a ban.

He also continued to attack Harris on personal terms, even as some political analysts say such comments could hurt Trump with moderate voters.

“Have you heard her laugh? That is the laugh of a crazy person,” Trump said, adding that he was displeased by the illustration of Harris on the cover of the latest issue of Time magazine. “I’m much better looking than her.”

In a meandering speech, Trump repeated his false claim that he lost the 2020 election due to fraud, dismissed the threat of climate change and said his plan to impose across-the-board tariffs on foreign goods would not act as a tax on U.S. consumers, an assertion that most economists contest.

The Mohegan Sun Arena, where Trump appeared, has a capacity of roughly 8,000 and was nearly full when he started speaking. But the crowd began to thin after the one-hour mark. He spoke for more than 100 minutes in total.

Pennsylvania was one of three Rust Belt states, along with Wisconsin and Michigan, that helped power Trump’s upset victory in 2016. Biden, who grew up in Scranton, Pennsylvania, flipped the trio back to the Democrats in 2020.

With 19 electoral votes out of the 270 needed to secure the White House, compared with 15 in Michigan and 10 in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania may be the biggest prize in this year’s election and potentially tip the balance for either candidate.

Harris’ entry into the race after Biden ended his reelection bid last month has upended the contest, erasing the lead Trump built in the final weeks of Biden’s campaign. Harris is leading Trump by more than two percentage points in Pennsylvania, according to the poll tracking website FiveThirtyEight.

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Trump won Pennsylvania in 2016 by about 44,000 votes, a margin of less than one percentage point, while Biden prevailed by just over 80,000 votes in 2020, a 1.2-point margin.

Both campaigns have made the state a top priority, blanketing the airwaves with advertisements. Of the more than $110 million spent on advertising in seven battleground states since Biden dropped out in late July, roughly $42 million was in Pennsylvania, more than twice any other state, the Wall Street Journal reported on Friday, citing data from the tracking site AdImpact.

Democratic and Republican groups have already reserved $114 million in ad time in Pennsylvania from late August through the election, more than twice as much as the $55 million reserved in Arizona, the next highest total, according to AdImpact.

The Harris campaign said on Saturday it planned to spend at least $370 million on digital and television ads nationwide between the Labor Day holiday on Sept. 2 and Election Day.

The battleground states – seen as critical for winning the election – also include Arizona, North Carolina, Nevada and Georgia.

New polls published on Saturday by the New York Times found Harris leading Trump among likely voters in Arizona, 50% to 45%, and in North Carolina, 49% to 47%, and narrowing the former president’s leads in Nevada, 47% to 49%, and in Georgia, 46% to 50%. A pollster from the Trump campaign said the poll results underestimated the Republican candidate’s support.

Trump will give remarks on the economy at a campaign event in York, Pennsylvania, on Monday. His running mate, U.S. Senator JD Vance, will hold an event in Philadelphia that day as well.

Trump’s trip to Wilkes-Barre in Luzerne County was aimed at solidifying support among the white, non-college-educated voters who lifted him to victory in 2016. The blue-collar county voted Democratic for decades before swinging heavily toward Trump in 2016, mirroring other similar regions around the country.

Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, will make multiple stops across Allegheny and Beaver counties on Sunday, the campaign said. The tour is the first time Harris, Walz and their spouses have campaigned together since their first rally as a presidential ticket in Philadelphia earlier this month.

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

U.S. Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) speaks during a campaign rally for Republican presidential candidate and former U.S. President Donald Trump, at Trump’s golf resort in Doral, Florida, U.S., on July 9, 2024.
| Photo Credit: Reuters

Former U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday revelled in the mounting turmoil surrounding President Joe Biden ’s campaign in the wake of their debate and teased the expected announcement of his Republican running mate with one of the top contenders, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, in attendance.

After days spent lying low, golfing and letting Democratic infighting play out in public, Mr. Trump used his return to the campaign trail in Florida to ratchet up his attacks on both Mr. Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris.

Mr. Trump rallied his supporters at one of his Miami-area golf courses as the presumptive Republican nominee nears a deadline to announce his running mate. But he appears in no rush, as much of the political world’s attention is still centred on questions about Mr. Biden’s ability to govern for another four-year term.

Rubio to be running mate?

Mr. Trump repeatedly played into the speculation that he might elevate Mr. Rubio to his ticket.

Mr. Rubio, a Miami native and one of the contenders for the vice presidential post, was among the Florida politicians who spoke at the event.

At one point, Mr. Trump marveled at the number of reporters in attendance and said, “I think they probably think I’m going to be announcing that Marco is going to be vice president.”

Later, when he talked about his pledge to make tips tax-free, he remarked that Mr. Rubio “may or may not be there to vote for it.”

Hispanic American vote

Mr. Rubio, the son of Cuban immigrants, is seen as a potential running mate who could help Mr. Trump as he tries to secure support from Hispanic Americans, a point the senator emphasised in his remarks as he switched several times in his remarks to Spanish.

The senator did not openly acknowledge any of the speculation about him joining Mr. Trump as a running mate. He instead skewered not only Mr. Biden, whom he called “the figurehead of a left-wing government, shadow government,” but Ms. Harris, whom he would need to debate head-on if he’s chosen for Mr. Trump’s ticket.

He notably seemed to insert himself into Mr. Trump’s signature “Make America Great Again” slogan by saying: “Together, we’re not just going to make it great again. We elect this man as president, we will make together America greater than it has ever been.”

Barron Trump makes first appearance at a rally

Mr. Trump’s youngest child who recently turned 18, Barron, also made his first-ever appearance at one of his father’s rallies. Mr. Trump implored his son to stand, with the young man pumping his fist a few times as Mr. Trump said, “Welcome to the scene, Barron.”

Former U.S. President Donald Trump
| Photo Credit: Reuters

Donald Trump’s campaign said it had raised nearly $53 million in online small-dollar donations after he was convicted in his New York hush money trial, boasting that the verdict had galvanised his support “like never before.”

The record haul was equivalent to more than $2 million raised per hour, it said.

Senior campaign aides Chris LaCivita and Susie Wiles said in statements that more than a third of the total came from new donors to the campaign and hailed an “outpouring of support from patriots across our country.”

Calling the Thursday court decision a “sham trial verdict” the advisors reported that the “digital fundraising system was overwhelmed with support” despite temporary online delays “because of the amount of traffic” from small-dollar donors.

As of Friday evening, the day’s total had climbed to a whopping $52.8 million.

A jury convicted Mr. Trump on Thursday on all 34 charges of falsifying business records to cover up a sex scandal in the final stages of the 2016 presidential campaign.

Prosecutors said Mr. Trump had sex with porn actress Stormy Daniels soon after his wife Melania had given birth in 2006, and then paid hush money a decade later to avoid the fallout and deceive voters, before creating false paperwork to conceal the payment.

He is due for sentencing on July 11 but is expected to appeal the verdict.

“Crooked Joe Biden and the Democrats with their election interference political witch hunt have awakened the MAGA movement like never before,” LaCivita and Wiles said.

President Joe Biden has been at pains to avoid commenting on the trial and there is no evidence that he or his administration had any involvement in the investigation, which was launched by New York state, not the federal government.

Mr. Trump has a long record of turning scandal to his advantage, and his campaign website began redirecting visitors to a fundraising page declaring he was a “political prisoner” moments after he was convicted.

The page crashed for around an hour within minutes of launching, however, as the surge of Trump supporters overwhelmed WinRed, the official Republican Party donation platform.

Mr. Trump regularly characterizes his legal woes as a battle against the evil forces of the “deep state” and Mr. Biden’s White House, casting himself as a martyr willing to sacrifice his liberty to stand up for his supporters.

In April he compared himself to South African anti-apartheid icon Nelson Mandela for the second time, and he has also likened himself to Jesus Christ.

“WITCH HUNT! IF THIS CAN HAPPEN TO ME, IT CAN HAPPEN TO ANYONE!,” Mr. Trump posted on his platform Truth Social on Friday.

File photo of Donald Trump’s youngest son, Barron Trump.
| Photo Credit: AP

Former U.S. President Donald Trump’s youngest son, Barron Trump, will not be a delegate representing Florida at the Republican National Convention in July due to prior commitments, the office of his mother Melania said on May 10.

On May 9, a campaign official said Barron Trump, 18, had been selected by the state party as a delegate from Florida, a notable move given that he has kept largely out of the public eye during the campaign.

“While Barron is honoured to have been chosen as a delegate by the Florida Republican Party, he regretfully declines to participate due to prior commitments,” Melania Trump’s office said in a statement.

In Florida, presidential campaigns submit a list of proposed delegates to the state party, which in this case would have included Mr. Barron Trump.

Delegates are allocated following primary contests in each state. While the rules are complex, delegates are typically assigned to represent a candidate at the convention, where the nominee is officially selected.

Mr. Donald Trump is set to face President Joe Biden in November’s presidential election.

Indulging in her love for surfing, Ivanka Trump, daughter of former US President Donald Trump, was seen showing off her incredible wakeboarding skills on Monday. In a new Instagram post, the 41-year-old shared a photo and video of herself riding the waves off the coast of Miami Beach. Meanwhile, her seven-year-old son Theo, who was seated in a boat, watched her with delight. 

For the water sports adventure, the former White House Senior Adviser donned a yellow one-piece swimsuit, black life jacket, and baseball cap, as she enjoyed riding the waves. 

Here’s the post:

Earlier in June, she shared another picture of herself in a black swimsuit, holding a surfboard, and strolling barefoot along the beach in Costa Rica. She shared the picture with the caption ”Soaking up the Summer Solstice.”

Beyond surfing, Ivanka also engages in various other outdoor sports.

Notably, this is the first time she’s posted on Instagram since her father, former President Donald Trump, was arrested on racketeering and conspiracy charges and had his mugshot taken. 

The former President’s daughter has largely remained silent over her father’s recent indictments and mounting legal troubles. She had previously announced that she would not be involved with her father’s 2024 campaign.

“I love my father very much. This time around, I am choosing to prioritize my young children and the private life we are creating as a family. I do not plan to be involved in politics. While I will always love and support my father, going forward I will do so outside the political arena,” she said in her statement. 

Notably, she had spoken out after her father’s first indictment in March 2023, after prosecutors alleged he paid hush money to adult film star Stormy Daniels while he was the presidential candidate in 2016, People reported.

In an Instagram story, she wrote, ”I love my father, and I love my country. Today, I am pained for both. I appreciate the voices across the political spectrum expressing support and concern.”

Donald Trump, who is running for president in the 2024 election, has already made history as the first former US president to face criminal charges-not once but four times.