Nearly 200 are dead from violent student protests and firing by forces in Bangladesh – is PM Sheikh Hasina, who won elections just a few months ago, losing her grip on gen-next, and will the unrest India’s closest neighbour is grappling with, spill over?

But first, Bangladesh is taking a pause from days of brutal violence as forces took on student protestors demonstrating against the quota system. A look at the situation right now, although information remains restricted.

July 1: Protests by students began after the Supreme Court upheld an earlier government order maintaining about 56% of all government jobs would be reserved for freedom fighters – the mukti jodha/ mukti bahini of Bangladesh’s liberation in 1971, their children and even grandchildren. The students on the street said they were fighting what they saw as a move to make the bureaucracy politically aligned to the ruling Awami League.

There’s a lot more on the underlying social, historical and political tensions in this podcast at The Hindu with my colleague Kallol Bhattacherjee.

July 14: In a statement appealing for calm, PM Hasina actually fuelled protestors anger- by saying that those protesting were Razakars- a term used for those Bangladeshis who supported Pakistan in 1971, seen as traitors. The protests battled police, set fire to government buildings IT centres, vandalized a metro station.

Shoot at sight orders, a nationwide curfew, internet bans followed. The army and paramilitary Rapid Action Forces were called in, as the violence spiralled out of control.

July 21: The supreme court’s appellate bench struck down the earlier order, bringing down quotas for freedom fighters and families to 5%. The order helped restore calm, although students groups still demand an apology from PM Hasina, and the resignation of her ministers for the crackdown. In 3 weeks, nearly 200 had been killed, thousands injured – including hundred with eye injuries from pellets and bullets fired by the forces.

The worry now, that when the curfew is lifted and internet fully restored, the protests could recur, or continue to simmer, posing a threat to the Hasina government, that was once seen as the champion of students movements.

In fact there has been some concern internationally. The UN spokesperson said the UNSG was deeply concerned, particularly as UN marked vehicles were used by riot police in Dhaka.

At a congressional hearing, a senior U.S. official said that they were in touch with Bangladeshi authorities, to calm the violence and to rescind shoot at sight orders – of course PM Hasina has a tense relationship with the U.S. and has indirectly claimed that its sanctions against her during elections were to force her to allow a U.S. base in Bangladesh.

So is this the internal matter of Bangladesh, and why should India worry?

– Bangladesh is one of India’s closest neighbours, very strong ties between the leaders that were seen as PM Hasina made two visits to India in June- for the swearing in and for a bilateral visit.

– Protests hurt Bangladesh economically, and India is a strong partner on trade, energy and connectivity.

– The protests against 1971 related quotas carried a subtext that could turn anti-Indian- as India is not just connected to Muktibahinis in the past, but today is accused by the opposition siding with PM Hasina.

– About 10,000 Indian students are in Bangladesh- about 7,000 had to be evacuated already, and prolonged protests will disrupt their lives.

– Bangladesh’s problems quickly become a problem with West Bengal- the Hasina government protested this week when Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee said that if innocent Bangladeshis fled across the border, she would have to give them shelter under UN laws. The MEA issued a sharp rebuke to the West Bengal govt after it received the letter.

– Bangladesh’s other major partner is China, which will not criticize PM Hasina for internal violence, and India would not want to give Beijing the advantage.

– Bangladesh has been sensitive to India on protests as well, for eg. Calling the CAA protests an internal matter, and the Modi government does not want be seen interfering in this matter.

Worldview Take:

The crackdown in Bangladesh on student protestors, and the extent of violence just six months after PM Sheikh Hasina began her fourth term in office, is a big challenge to the popularity of her government, and the conduct of forces, indiscriminate firing causing dozens of deaths is another undemocratic turn in the country. It is ironical that the 1971 liberation, and Hasina’s own return to politics and power in 1996 and 2008 all accrue to student movements – losing gen-next’s support over these protests will be a big blow. As a close partner of Bangladesh, not just PM Hasina’s, India can be discreet but not remain silent with such turmoil in its neighbourhood.

Reading recommendations:

Transformation: Emergence of Bangladesh and Evolution of India-Bangladesh Ties by Pinak Ranjan Chakravarty

India and the Bangladesh Liberation War by Chandrashekhar Dasgupta

Paradoxes of the Popular: Crowd Politics in Bangladesh by Nusrat Sabina Chowdhury

 Biden and Beyond: The United States Rethinks South Asia by Hernaikh Singh and C Raja Mohan

Routledge Handbook of Autocratization in South Asia by Sten Widmalm- Section on Bangladesh, towards One Party Rule

Sheikh Hasina: The Making of an Extraordinary South Asian Leader by Dr Abul Hasnat Milton

A WORLD OF THREE ZEROS by Muhammad Yunus

Production: Shibu Narayan and Kanishkaa Balachandran

Dhaka:

Indian High Commission in Dhaka has issued an urgent advisory for Indian citizens and students in Bangladesh to avoid non-essential travel and minimise movement outside their residences due to the escalating unrest in the country.

The advisory comes in response to recent violent clashes between students and police in Dhaka, following the Bangladeshi government’s decision to close all public and private universities.

Advisory on the ongoing situation in Bangladesh. pic.twitter.com/nSMsw9hWp0

— India in Bangladesh (@ihcdhaka) July 18, 2024

The protests have been driven by demands for reform of the country’s quota system for civil service jobs, which reserves positions for specific groups, including descendants of those who participated in the 1971 war of independence against Pakistan.

On Thursday, protests intensified as students clashed with law enforcement in various locations across Dhaka. In Merul Badda, near Brac University, demonstrators blocked roads and engaged in violent confrontations with police, resulting in multiple injuries. By late morning, police deployed tear gas to disperse the crowd, leading to significant traffic disruptions in the area, Dhaka Tribune reported.

Additionally, students obstructed the entrance to the Bashundhara Residential Area on Pragati Sarani and blocked the Dhaka-Chittagong highway in Jatrabari, severely affecting public transportation and causing widespread inconvenience. The Mirpur 10 roundabout and surrounding areas also experienced a heavy police presence, with many local markets and shops remaining closed.

The protests began in response to perceived police brutality and have evolved into a broader demand for justice for those injured or killed in previous demonstrations, as well as a call for a violence-free campus and rational reform of the quota system, as reported by Dhaka Tribune.

In light of the volatile situation, the High Commission of India in Dhaka and the Indian Assistant High Commissions in Chittagong, Sylhet, and Khulna have established 24-hour emergency contact numbers for Indian nationals and students who require assistance:

High Commission of India, Dhaka: 880-1937400591 (also on WhatsApp)

Assistant High Commission of India, Chittagong: 880-1814654797 / 880-1814654799 (also on WhatsApp)

Assistant High Commission of India, Sylhet: 880-1313076411 (also on WhatsApp)

Assistant High Commission of India, Khulna: 880-1812817799 (also on WhatsApp)

The recent protests have been fueled by dissatisfaction with Bangladesh’s quota system, which sets aside a significant number of civil service positions for specific groups. This system has been a contentious issue in Bangladesh for years, with current demonstrations reflecting deep-seated frustrations over both the quota system and the response of law enforcement to peaceful student movements.

The Indian government continues to monitor the situation and advises all citizens in Bangladesh to adhere to the travel advisory and reach out to the High Commission or Assistant High Commissions if they are in need of urgent assistance.

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

The inherent strength of India-Bangladesh relationship was once again in evidence as the Prime Minister of Bangladesh, Sheikh Hasina, decided to visit New Delhi days after attending the swearing-in ceremony of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The ease with which the top leadership in Delhi and Dhaka now interact and engage each other is a tribute to the manner in which Modi and Hasina have managed to build this important partnership over the last decade, often under very difficult circumstances. If Modi had to contend with the opposition at the state level in West Bengal, where the ruling party decided to veto the Teesta Pact, Hasina had to face the anti-India constituency in Bangladesh. Despite this, both leaders stood firm in their belief that building resilience in this partnership is important for not only bilaterally but also regionally.

“Trusted Friend”

On her first official overseas visit to any country since she returned to power earlier this year in January, Hasina underlined: “India is our major neighbour, trusted friend and regional partner. Bangladesh-India relations are growing at a fast pace.” Modi reciprocated by highlighting the special nature of this visit: “Because she is our first state guest after our government returned to power for the third term.”

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The visit saw the signing of 10 Memoranda of Understanding (MoUs), which covered areas as diverse as digital and green partnerships, maritime cooperation, and, notably, the ‘Shared Vision for India-Bangladesh Rail Connectivity’. The joint statement outlined a shared bilateral and regional vision for peace, prosperity and development, driven by connectivity, commerce and collaboration. In that spirit, some important new initiatives were announced, including e-visa for patients from Bangladesh, new train and bus services, joint technical committee for Ganga Water Treaty, visit of an Indian technical team to Bangladesh for a mega project to conserve and manage the Teesta river, export of 40 MW of power from Nepal to Bangladesh through Indian grid, and training of Bangladeshi police officers. Building Bangladesh’s defence capability has also emerged as a priority, with the two nations deciding “to explore defence industrial cooperation for modernisation of the Armed Forces of Bangladesh”.

Identifying Opportunities, Counterbalancing China

Hasina will be visiting China in July. It is a sign of a new maturity in India-Bangladesh relations that the two nations continue to work closely together even as they develop their ties with other nations. New Delhi has not stopped Dhaka from its engagement with China but it has some concerns that Hasina has always ensured are addressed. Since 2020, China has been regularly expressing an interest in the $1 billion project to develop the Teesta river. Last year, Beijing submitted a formal proposal.

Also Read | Tripura Chief Minister Gifts 500 Kg Of Queen Pineapples To Bangladesh PM

For Bangladesh, this has been a long-standing priority. The Manmohan Singh government had an agreement in place in 2011, which could not be taken forward due to the opposition from the Chief Minister of West Bengal. For Hasina, the situation had become unsustainable, with the opposition clamouring for a response amidst moves by the Chinese. Her visit before going to China was a wise move to ensure that New Delhi had a chance to respond, and India has done well to respond to the initiative. The decision to send an Indian technical team to Dhaka for talks on the conservation and management of Teesta river is an indication that New Delhi is not willing to cede its strategic space in the neighbourhood despite domestic challenges. The decision to commence technical negotiations for the renewal of the 1996 Ganga Water Treaty is also a timely move to respond to the concerns in Dhaka on an issue that is a priority for the Hasina government.

Rock-Solid Ties

For India, the importance of Bangladesh cannot be overstated as New Delhi seeks to emerge as an Indo-Pacific player with the Bay of Bengal as the regional epicentre. For Bangladesh, a partnership with India remains key to realising its full potential as a critical economic and strategic player in the region. As the two nations become more ambitious in defining their strategic outlooks, their bilateral partnership will continue to be a key enabler in shaping their behaviour.

The China factor, while important, should not be overstated. India-Bangladesh ties today stand on their own merit. Hasina and Modi have ensured that by focusing concrete tangible outcomes for the people of both nations, they have redefined the contours of what an ideal partnership between two neighbours should look like. Mutual respect, mutual interest and mutual sensitivity have made this relationship an exemplar for all others.

[Harsh V Pant is Vice President for Studies and Foreign Policy at ORF.]

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author