The story so far: A political and diplomatic chasm has split Latin America. The epicentre of the crisis is Ecuador’s capital Quito; the immediate trigger was a police raid on the Mexican Embassy to arrest a political opponent convicted of corruption. President Daniel Noboa, in an unprecedented move, ordered raids on the embassy to arrest Jorge David Glas, a former Vice-President in the administration of leftist former President Rafael Correa. Mr. Glas had sought shelter at the Embassy since December, a month after Mr. Noboa came to power, and was later given political asylum by Mexico. The raid was an “exceptional decision,” taken “to protect national security, the rule of law and the dignity of a population that rejects any type of impunity for criminals, corrupt people or narco-terrorists,” Mr. Noboa said.

Critics say the raids are partly designed to boost Mr. Noboa’s image and yield short-term political gains. The young President is facing criticism for being unable to control crime, and has rallied support for a military crackdown on gang violence, the fate of which will be decided through a referendum on April 21.

The raids, however, have earned Mr. Noboa international opprobrium for violating international laws. Mexico has broken diplomatic relations with the South American nation and plans to appeal at the International Court of Justice that Ecuador be suspended from the United Nations — unless it extends an apology. 

What is the political context?

The politics of Ecuador is tied to the security and safety of Ecuadorians. The once-peaceful Andean nation of 18 million people has seen crime and gang violence explode since 2016. Ecuador, because of its geography and permeable borders, sits as a transit hub for drugs moving from Colombia and Peru. In 2009, a policy by the then-Correa Government expelled the U.S. forces from its territory, weakening Ecuador’s ability to stave off entry and deter distribution of drugs within the country. The operation of drug cartels has boomed: Ecuador was by 2019 among the top exporters of cocaine to the world, and within its borders, sheltered at least three major international crime groups. According to government estimates, almost 40,000 drug gang members operate in the country, equal to the number of soldiers in Ecuador’s army. The drug trafficking industry, mixed with an overcrowded and corrupt penal system, has sparked a crime wave: rampant prison riots, prison breaks, loot, kidnapping, cocaine trafficking, murders and political assassinations. Journalist and Presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio was assassinated on the campaign trail in August last year; mayor Jorge Maldonado, who was shot dead on April 19, was the fifth Ecuadorian mayor to be assassinated in the last year.

The government on its part has largely failed to make dents in or address the structural roots of the violence, analyst Carla Álvarez at the Institute for Advanced National Studies told The New York Times last year. The Correa Government’s reputation had been sullied due to a growing number of corruption and graft charges. Mr. Glas, who was in power from 2013 to 2017, was previously convicted of taking bribes in a scandal involving the construction giant Odebrecht; he also faces legal proceedings for alleged embezzlement in reconstruction projects after the 2016 earthquake. Mr. Glas is a “symbol of corruption in Ecuador,” scholar Esteban Nicholls told AFP.

Daniel Noboa in his presidential bid in 2023 pledged to weed out drugs, gang violence and corruption from the land. This promise resonated in a nation where homicide rates have almost tripled from 13.7 per 100,000 people in 2021 to 45 in 2023, making Ecuador one of the top three most violent nations in Latin America.

What about the timing of the raids?

Mr. Noboa last year stood as a credible outsider presenting the vision of a safer Ecuador, one leading a revolt against narco-terrorism and avowing to undo the “old paradigms” plaguing the country. “We will not negotiate with terrorists and we will not rest until we have returned peace to Ecuadorians,” Mr. Noboa said in January. The 36-year-old’s hard-line policies — such as building high-security prisons and a 90-day state of emergency in January — haven’t emerged as permanent solutions. The emergency was imposed after Los Choneros gang leader Aldolfo Macias (or ‘Fito’), among Ecuador’s most dangerous criminals, escaped from his cell. Mr. Noboa also signed a declaration of “internal armed conflict”, a decree naming 22 criminal gangs as terrorist organisations. “We are at war,” he told a radio station. The decree allowed the government to employ the military as a pacification tactic: the government deployed soldiers in public spaces and moved to reestablish control in prisons.

Murder rates dipped initially but boomeranged soon after. The coastal city of Guayaquil was overrun by gangs as recently as January; there was a surge of violence over the April Easter weekend with more than 100 deaths in a mere three days. The escape and failed capture of Fito further emboldened Mr. Noboa’s detractors. The President appears to be failing on the litmus test of crime rates, corruption and narco-terrorism policies, jeopardising his popularity and approval ratings.

The police raids also hint at growing fraught relations with Mexico. A conflict has emerged between the 70-year-old Mexican president Andrés Manuel López Obrador and the 36-year-old Mr. Noboa, currently the world’s youngest democratically elected serving state leader. On April 3, Mr. Obradar questioned the result of the 2023 elections in which Mr. Noboa won; Mr. Noboa responded by declaring Mr. Obrador persona non grata and expelled the Mexican ambassador. Mexico, two days later, announced political asylum to Mr. Glas. Mr. Orabadar called the subsequent raids an “authoritarian action,” taken only when “weak governments that do not have popular support or capacity” come to power.

According to the 1961 Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations, embassies are protected, “inviolable” spaces — not technically “foreign soil,” but territories that enjoy immunity when carrying out the sovereign functions in the country where they are located. “The agents of the receiving State may not enter them, except with the consent of the head of the mission,” the Convention states. The “rule of inviolability,” however, may mean that political opponents may avoid arrest by taking shelter in foreign embassies. “Some government use their embassy as a facade of political refuge, but it’s actually to save criminals from their sentence,” Mr. Noboa said in an interview. He also said that Mr. Glas posed an “imminent” flight risk, the government was aware of “a plan to escape” and the raids are part of his “fight against impunity.”

Last year, Ecuador’s transport minister Maria de los Angeles Duarte, sentenced to eight years imprisonment for a bribery charge, escaped to Venezuela after living in the Argentine embassy in Quito. A diplomatic row soon emerged between Ecuador and Argentina.

Is there international backlash?

Mr. Noboa has also set himself against the diplomatic order for now. All Latin American countries, with the exception of El Salvador, have condemned Ecuador’s raids on the Mexico Embassy. The break was “unwarranted and unjustified,” the Organisation of American States said; the European Union condemned it as a violation of the Vienna Convention in force for six decades. Ally U.S. has not entirely condemned Ecuador but ambiguously reiterated the “obligation of host countries under international law to respect the inviolability of diplomatic missions.” Mexico, for now, has broken diplomatic relations with Ecuador and approached the United Nations.

The diplomatic rupture between Mexico and Ecuador has put regional security under the radar. The raids “could set a very dangerous precedent, and that’s very concerning for the stability of diplomatic relations in the region,” wrote scholars Fabio Andrés Díaz Pabón and Maria Gabriela Palacio in a Conversation article. Without any reconciliation, the spat could prove counterproductive to Ecuador’s narcoterrorism pursuits, and further jeopardise migrant safety. Ecuador is a point of transit for migrants attempting to reach Mexico and cross into North America; the provocation poses “serious risks in a region where illicit economies, violence and forced migration are spiralling out of control,” the scholars noted.

There are also trade and geopolitical variables on the line. The two countries have modest trade relations: Ecuador contributes only 0.038% to Mexico’s imports and its share of Mexico’s exports was just 0.1%, according to official figures. The diplomatic tiff could still fuel commercial instability. Mexico has put on hold its negotiations with Ecuador on a free trade deal that would have allowed the latter to join the Pacific Alliance trade bloc.

Ecuador maintains that Mexico’s political asylum is a violation of laws in the first place. “No nation can give political asylum to someone [an ordinary prisoner] if they have a sentence”, Mr. Noboa said in an interview with SBS News, saying that this amounts to getting involved in the sovereignty and judicial systems of different nations.

Why is the April 21 referendum important?

Mr. Noboa entered office as a political outsider, taking over the Presidency after a snap election was called in November 2023. The leader is up for re-election in May 2025. The display of force, through raids, may hurt Mr. Noboa’s international repute but reinforces his standing on the domestic political stage, according to analysts. The raids could “bolster his domestic credibility”, strengthen his “appeal to voters looking for strong leadership and a new direction for the country,” placing him favourably for next year, wrote analyst Sebastian Hurtado in Americas Quarterly.

Ecuador on April 21 voted in a referendum to decide if the government can further increase security tactics to fight gang violence. The proposed measures include formally authorising military presence on the streets and including harsher prison sentences for gang-related crimes. The referendum is the first political test of Mr. Noboa’s popularity, and of his declaration of an ‘uncompromising’ war on crime and impunity.

The local reaction is cleaved along political lines: one side sees value in Mr. Noboa’s message of fighting crime with force, while the other worries about the authoritarian undertones driving these actions. The raids, even if a gamble, may buoy support for the referendum, boost Mr. Noboa’s image as an ‘action man’ and find appeal among Ecuadorians disillusioned with a status quo paralysing their way of life. “The priority is to clean, sanitize, continue with a process as important as President Noboa’s to put the house in order,” college professor Gabriela Sandoval told AP, calling the raids a “courageous act.” Observers are drawing parallels between Mr. Noboa and El Salvador’s president Nayib Buklee who, through similar hard-line tactics against drug and gang violence, won a second mandate in power. The incident had no international “upside,” Mr. Hurtado told FT, but “shows of force and radical action have served the president before”, especially at a time when there is a growing public desire for justice and safety.

At the same time, Mr. Noboa’s referendum served a dual political purpose: to deepen militarisation and block public dissent, wrote Mr. Pabón and Ms. Palacio. The reform wants to fight “terrorists” and “narco-terrorism” but its content is “ambiguous.”

“It is feared the government could use it to suppress protest, for example, when it comes to opposition to the government’s extractive policy,” they write. Put differently, a government that feels emboldened to violate international law would have a similar disregard for domestic laws. Moreover, “going rogue inside the embassy of a neighbouring country in the name of fighting corruption” is not going to aid Ecuador in tackling its complicated challenges, The Hindu’s editorial noted.

Mr. Noboa has discounted the “strongman” label in favour of being seen as “someone who is fair,” he told SBS News. “If he would have escaped, I would have been too weak in front of everyone. Now that I have caught the guy, I’m too strong. It’s difficult to please everyone,” he said.

When asked if he has regrets, Mr. Noboa said “zero”, because “we’re on the right side of history”. On plans of resolution he said, “I will invite President [Obrador] to have a ceviche. We can probably have some tacos together. And then we can talk…whenever he’s ready.”

Electoral workers count votes at a polling station during a referendum on tougher measures against organized crime in Guayaquil, Ecuador, on April 21, 2024.
| Photo Credit: AFP

Ecuador’s fledgling president got a resounding victory Sunday, April 21, 2024, in a referendum that he touted as a way to crack down on criminal gangs behind a spiraling wave of violence.

An official quick count showed that Ecuadorians overwhelmingly voted “yes” to all nine questions focused on tightening security measures, rejecting only two more controversial economic proposals.

The quick count was announced by the head of the Electoral National Council, Diana Atamaint. It confirmed a private exit poll released hours before that indicated a resounding victory and sign of support for President Daniel Noboa, the scion of a wealthy banana exporting family.

Among the measures approved are President Noboa’s call to deploy the army in the fight against the gangs, to loosen obstacles for extraditing accused criminals and to lengthen prison sentences for convicted drug traffickers.

Ecuador was traditionally one of South America’s most peaceful countries, but it has been rocked in recent years by a wave of violence, much of it spilling over from neighboring Colombia, the world’s largest producer of cocaine. Last year, the country’s homicide rate shot up to 40 deaths per 100,000 people, one of the highest in the region.

Mr. Noboa has rallied popular support by confronting the gangs head on. That task became more urgent in January when masked gunmen, some on orders from imprisoned drug traffickers, terrorised residents and took control of a television station while it was live on the air in an unprecedented show of force.

Following the rampage, the 36-year-old President decreed an “internal armed conflict,” enabling him to use emergency powers to deploy the army in pursuit of about 20 gangs now classified as “terrorists.”

We’ve defended the country: President Noboa

The referendum, in which 13 million Ecuadorians were called to vote, contained measures to extend those powers and put them on firmer legal ground.

Some of the measures approved imply changes to Ecuador’s Constitution, but because they were previously endorsed by the Constitutional Court, Noboa only needs to publish them in the official gazette to go into effect. Some of those initiatives are the ones related to the use of the army and extradition.

For the changes that require changing some general laws, the president will have to send a reform proposal to the Assembly, which will have 60 days to process them.

Mr. Noboa, ahead of the final tally, celebrated the results. “We’ve defended the country,” he said in a message posted on social media. “Now we will have more tools to fight against the delinquent and restore peace to Ecuador’s families.”

Noboa’s law and order rhetoric recalls the policies of El Salvador’s wildly popular president, Nayib Bukele, a fellow millennial, and could give him a boost politically as he prepares to run for reelection next year.

Noboa, is serving the final 18 months of a presidential term left vacant when fellow conservative Guillermo Lasso resigned amid a congressional investigation into allegations of corruption. Noboa was elected following a shortened but bloody campaign that saw one of his top rivals brazenly assassinated while campaigning.

Thirty-five-year-old Daniel Noboa became Ecuador’s youngest-ever president-elect after the electoral authority declared him the victor and socialist rival Luisa Gonzalez conceded defeat.

Here are five points on Daniel Noboa:

Daniel Noboa has managed to do what his father failed at five times: getting elected as Ecuador’s President.

And he did it on October 15 on his first attempt, winning a runoff election against a leftist lawyer on the resume of a 35-year-old who belongs to the South American country’s elite, which means some schooling in the U.S., some entrepreneurial work, some dabbling in politics.

Now, he must answer the universal demand to make Ecuador safe again, which voters urged on all the candidates who originally jumped into the race amid a surge in unprecedented violence tied to drug trafficking.

Mr. Noboa’s proposals to tackle the crucial issue have run the gamut. At one point in the campaign, he proposed turning ships into floating jails for the most violent criminals. At another, he simply promised more gear for police.

Voters are increasingly frightened by the escalation of drug violence over the past three years. Killings, kidnappings, robberies and other criminal activities have become part of everyday life, leaving Ecuadorians wondering when, not if, they will be victims.

And as he is getting a truncated term, Mr. Noboa faces a daunting task.

“I think there would be a very slim chance that even the best equipped President could reverse Ecuador’s security crisis within 18 months — it’s such a short period of time — and neither of these candidates was the best equipped. Mr. Noboa certainly not,” said Will Freeman, a fellow on Latin American studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. “His proposals on security were erratic, and they gave the sense that he was improvising.” The incoming President’s term will run only through May 2025, which is what remains of the tenure of President Guillermo Lasso. He cut his term short when he dissolved the National Assembly in May as lawmakers pursued impeachment proceedings against him over alleged improprieties in a government contract.

With nearly all votes counted, electoral officials said Mr. Noboa had just over 52%, compared to nearly 48% for Luisa González, an ally of exiled former President Rafael Correa. Ms. González conceded defeat during a speech before supporters in which she also urged Mr. Noboa to fulfil his campaign promises.

After results showed him victorious, Mr. Noboa thanked Ecuadorians for believing in “a new political project, a young political project, an improbable political project”. He said his goal is “to return peace to the country, to give education to the youth again, to be able to provide employment to the many people who are looking for it.” To that end, Mr. Noboa said, he will immediately begin to work to “rebuild a country that has been seriously hit by violence, corruption and hatred”. The government’s inability to tackle the security crisis was laid bare in August with the assassination of presidential candidate and anti-corruption crusader Fernando Villavicencio. Since then, other politicians and political leaders have been killed or kidnapped, car bombs have exploded in multiple cities, including the capital, Quito, and inmates have rioted in prisons. Earlier this month, seven men held as suspects in Villavicencio’s slaying were themslves killed inside prisons.

Mr. Noboa opened an event organizing company when he was 18 and then joined his father’s Noboa Corp., where he held management positions in the shipping, logistics and commercial areas. His political career began in 2021, when he got a seat in the National Assembly and chaired its Economic Development Commission.

His father, Álvaro Noboa, is the richest man in Ecuador thanks to a conglomerate that started in the growing and shipping of bananas — Ecuador’s main crop — and now includes more than 128 companies in dozens of countries. The elder Noboa unsuccessfully ran for President five times.

The younger Noboa’s party will not have have enough seats in the National Assembly to be able to govern on its own. Garnering support from opposing lawmakers will be key to avoid the difficulties that plagued Lasso’s term.

Lasso, a conservative former banker, clashed constantly with lawmakers after his election in 2021 and decided not to run in the special election. On Sunday, he called on Ecuadorians to have a peaceful election and think about what is “best for their children, their parents and the country”. Under Mr. Lasso’s watch, violent deaths soared, reaching 4,600 in 2022, the country’s highest in history and double the total in 2021. The National Police tallied 3,568 violent deaths in the first half of 2023.

The spike in violence is tied to the trafficking of cocaine produced in neighbouring Colombia and Peru. Mexican, Colombian and Balkan cartels have set down roots in Ecuador and operate with assistance from local criminal gangs.

“I don’t expect much from this election,” Julio Ricaurte, a 59-year-old engineer, said on Sunday near one of the voting centres in northern Quito. “First, because the President will have little time to do anything, and second because the [National] Assembly in our country is an organisation that prevents anyone who comes to power from governing.” Mr. Noboa and Ms. González advanced to the runoff by finishing ahead of six other candidates in the election’s first round on Aug. 22. The replacement of Villavicencio finished in third place.

Ms. González was unknown to most voters until the party of Mr. Correa, her mentor, picked her as its presidential candidate. She held various government jobs during Mr. Correa’s decade-long presidency and was a lawmaker from 2021 until May.

At the start of the campaign, she said Mr. Correa would be her adviser, but she recently sought to distance herself a bit in an effort to court voters who oppose the former President, who remains a major force in Ecuador despite being found guilty of corruption in 2020 and sentenced in absentia to eight years in prison. He has been living in his wife’s native Belgium since 2017.

Rosa Amaguaña, a 62-year-old fruit and vegetable vendor, said on Sunday that safety “is the first thing that must be solved” by the next President.

“I’m hopeful the country will change,” Amaguaña said. “Yes, it can. The next President must be able to do even something small.”