The West Asia crisis is not over and has the potential to exacerbate, said Hardeep Singh Puri, Union Oil Minister at the Public Affairs Forum of India’s annual conclave here Thursday.

He added that notwithstanding the prevailing situation, a potential silver lining is the abundant availability of crude oil in the global market.

“The crisis is certainly not over; it is not only ongoing, but it has the potential of exacerbating. In other words, it could get more serious,” he said.

Highlighting that global crude availability remains higher than current demand; he said around 102 million barrels per day (mb/d) of crude oil is available in the market, while India’s domestic requirement is estimated at 94-95 mb/d.

The Union Minister also ruled out restricting exports amidst tightened market conditions.

Speaking in a broader context separately, Mr. Puri said that a return of stability could help keep crude prices under control. “I am hoping with all the counsels of peace around the world, peace will come and the price of oil should be lower rather than higher,” he said.

‘FDI in refining not needed, but interest exists’

Mr. Puri, responding to a query, said that while India does not require foreign investment to drive its refinery expansion, there has been interest from overseas investors in the sector.

“You do not need it but yes they want to come in,” he said, explaining further, “Nobody wants to come and invest unless they can get a slice of your growing downstream market. So, you want to be very clear.”

The oil minister mentioned the cost of building a refinery ranges between ₹78,000-80,000 crores.

A rise in India’s July retail inflation was a foregone conclusion, but its modest increase, at 4.45%, up from 4.38% in June, is still the highest in 19 months, since December 2024. This is the second consecutive month that retail inflation has stayed above the Reserve Bank of India (RBI)’s 4% target, even while remaining comfortably within its 2%-6% tolerance range. Predictably, it has again been driven by food, fuel and transport, even as core inflation, excluding precious metals, has remained below 3%. What is telling is the extent of rural, food-led inflation, which rose from 5.45% in June to 5.79% in July, while urban food inflation decreased marginally from 5.09% to 5.05%. Staples such as onion (22.54%), garlic (35.36%) and ginger (83.62%) fuelled the rise, even as potato (-16.56%) and tomato (-4.59%) moderated. Transport, however, continues to have a wider impact, pointing to elevated input-cost pressures. Transport inflation quickened to 4.43% in July from 4.31% in June, while the crucial subdivision, transport services for goods, rose from 7.70% to 7.77%. Despite the July 1 cut in commercial LPG prices of about ₹183, food and beverage serving services inflation quickened to 7.75% in July, indicating that restaurants are yet to recoup revenues and margins lost following the steep operating costs from March through May. Commercial LPG was cut by a further ₹202 on August 1, but this is unlikely to immediately bring down menu prices.

The monsoon remains a concern, with parts of western, central and southern India remaining rain-deficient. Precious metals inflation, particularly gold (32.98%) and silver (109.84%), moderated, but remains extraordinarily high. Crude prices were relatively stable during the July CPI reference period, but began rising again in August. More worryingly, Ukraine-related disruptions around Russia’s Black Sea export infrastructure, particularly Novorossiysk, could raise freight and risk premiums for Russian crude. Russia supplied nearly half of India’s crude imports in June, making such disruptions relevant to India’s landed energy costs. The rupee also depreciated by about 1.6% between the June 15 and July 15 CPI reference dates, further amplifying imported inflation. In the background, there are signs of weakening economic momentum, with the HSBC composite PMI showing a sharp fall from 57.1 in June to 54.3 in July, its weakest expansion since March 2022. While the PMI is a high-frequency indicator and need not reflect a long-term trend, it is nevertheless worth taking note of. The RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee, which held the repo rate at 5.25% for the fourth consecutive meeting in August, is therefore likely to remain on hold through the second quarter of FY27, as it weighs persistent supply-side inflation against weakening economic momentum.

The rupee rose 58 paise against the greenback to 94.60 in early trade on Monday (June 15, 2026) as global crude oil prices dropped sharply after U.S. President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. and Iran finalised a deal to end the war.

A strong start to the day at the domestic equity markets and a weaker U.S. dollar further drove the local unit, forex traders said.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 94.70 against the U.S. dollar before rising further to 94.60, up 58 paise from its previous close.

The rupee surged 67 paise to close at 95.18 against the greenback on Friday.

The U.S. and Iran finalised a deal to end their 107-day war and open the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway used to ferry one-fifth of the global oil supplies, on Friday after an in-person signing of the agreement in Switzerland.

U.S. President Donald Trump made the announcement on Truth Social on Sunday evening, easing pressure on the global energy markets, as officials said the peace agreement would be signed on June 19 in Switzerland.

“Rupee movement today will be significantly influenced by the peace deal between U.S. and Iran and the consequent crash in Brent crude. This means India’s balance of payments problem for FY27 is no longer a serious issue,” V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Ltd, said.

“Rupee started appreciating from the low of 96.96 to the dollar touched on May 20. Today the appreciating trend will continue and the rupee is likely to trade in the 94.80 to 94.60 range with scope for further appreciation in the coming days,” Vijayakumar added.

The dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading at 99.53, down 0.22%.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was trading lower by 4.66% at $83.26 per barrel in futures trade.

On the domestic equity market front, Sensex surged 1,112.70 points to 76,648.74 in early trade, while Nifty rose sharply by 335.55 points to 23,956.40.

Foreign institutional investors offloaded equities worth ₹1,082.18 crore on a net basis on Friday, according to exchange data.

India’s forex reserves dropped $711 million to $681.610 billion during the week ended June 5 due to a sharp decline in foreign currency reserves, the RBI said on Friday.