Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman speaking at the Munich Security Dialogue on February 14, 2026. Credit: Screengrab from video on X/@nsitharamanoffc

Remote, icy and mostly pristine, Greenland plays an outsized role in the daily weather experienced by billions of people and in the climate changes taking shape all over the planet.

Greenland is where climate change, scarce resources, tense geopolitics and new trade patterns all intersect, said Ohio University security and environment professor Geoff Dabelko.

The world’s largest island is now “central to the geopolitical, geoeconomic competition in many ways,” partly because of climate change, Dabelko said.

Since his first term in office, President-elect Donald Trump has expressed interest in acquiring Greenland, which is a semiautonomous territory of Denmark, a longtime U.S. ally and a founding member of NATO. It is also home to a large U.S. military base.

Think of Greenland as an open refrigerator door or thermostat for a warming world, and it’s in a region that is warming four times faster than the rest of the globe, said New York University climate scientist David Holland.

Locked inside are valuable rare earth minerals needed for telecommunications, as well as uranium, billions of untapped barrels of oil and a vast supply of natural gas that used to be inaccessible but is becoming less so.

Many of the same minerals are currently being supplied mostly by China, so other countries such as the United States are interested, Dabelko said. Three years ago, the Denmark government suspended oil development offshore from the territory of 57,000 people.

But more than the oil, gas or minerals, there’s ice — a “ridiculous” amount, said climate scientist Eric Rignot of the University of California, Irvine.

If that ice melts, it would reshape coastlines across the globe and potentially shift weather patterns in such a dramatic manner that the threat was the basis of a Hollywood disaster movie. Greenland holds enough ice that if it all melts, the world’s seas would rise by 24 feet (7.4 meters). Nearly a foot of that is so-called zombie ice, already doomed to melt no matter what happens, a 2022 study found.

Since 1992, Greenland has lost about 182 billion tons (169 billion metric tons) of ice each year, with losses hitting 489 billion tons a year (444 billion metric tons) in 2019.

Greenland will be “a key focus point” through the 21st century because of the effect its melting ice sheet will have on sea levels, said Mark Serreze, director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colorado. “It will likely become a bigger contributor in the future.”

That impact is “perhaps unstoppable,” NYU’s Holland said.

Greenland also serves as the engine and on/off switch for a key ocean current that influences Earth’s climate in many ways, including hurricane and winter storm activity. It’s called the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, or AMOC, and it’s slowing down because more fresh water is being dumped into the ocean by melting ice in Greenland, Serreze said.

A shutdown of the AMOC conveyor belt is a much-feared climate tipping point that could plunge Europe and parts of North America into prolonged freezes, a scenario depicted in the 2004 movie “The Day After Tomorrow.”

“If this global current system were to slow substantially or even collapse altogether — as we know it has done in the past — normal temperature and precipitation patterns around the globe would change drastically,” said climate scientist Jennifer Francis of the Woodwell Climate Research Center. “Agriculture would be derailed, ecosystems would crash, and ‘normal’ weather would be a thing of the past.”

Greenland is also changing color as it melts from the white of ice, which reflects sunlight, heat and energy away from the planet, to the blue and green of the ocean and land, which absorb much more energy, Holland said.

Greenland plays a role in the dramatic freeze that two-thirds of the United States is currently experiencing. And back in 2012, weather patterns over Greenland helped steer Superstorm Sandy into New York and New Jersey, according to winter weather expert Judah Cohen of the private firm Atmospheric and Environmental Research.

Because of Greenland’s mountains of ice, it also changes patterns in the jet stream, which brings storms across the globe and dictates daily weather. Often, especially in winter, a blocking system of high pressure off Greenland causes Arctic air to plunge to the west and east, smacking North America and Europe, Cohen said.

Because it straddles the Arctic circle between the United States, Russia and Europe, Greenland is a geopolitical prize that the U.S. and others have eyed for more than 150 years. It’s even more valuable as the Arctic opens up more to shipping and trade.

None of that takes into consideration the unique look of the ice-covered island that has some of the Earth’s oldest rocks.

“I see it as insanely beautiful. It’s eye-watering to be there,” said Holland, who has conducted research on the ice more than 30 times since 2007. “Pieces of ice the size of the Empire State Building are just crumbling off cliffs and crashing into the ocean. And also, the beautiful wildlife, all the seals and the killer whales. It’s just breathtaking.”

A man rides a boat in front of the sandbanks at the Solimoes River, one of the largest tributaries of the Amazon River, during a Greenpeace flyover to inspect what the National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters (Cemaden) says is the most intense and widespread drought Brazil has experienced since records began in 1950, near Tefe, Amazonas state, Brazil September 17, 2024.
| Photo Credit: Reuters

The worst drought on record has lowered the water level of the rivers in the Amazon basin to historic lows, in some cases drying up riverbeds that were previously navigable waterways.

The Solimoes, one of the main tributaries of the mighty Amazon River whose waters originate in the Peruvian Andes, has fallen to its lowest level on record in Tabatinga, the Brazilian town on the border with Colombia.

Downriver in Tefé, a branch of the Solimoes has dried up completely, as seen by Reuters reporters who flew over the river on Sunday.

The nearby Lake Tefé, where more than 200 freshwater dolphins died in last year’s drought, has also dried up, depriving the endangered pink mammals of a favorite habitat.

“We are going through a critical year,” said Greenpeace spokesperson Romulo Batista, pointing to where the riverbed of the branch of the Solimoes had turned to mounds of sand. “This year, several months have broken last year’s records.”

The second-consecutive year of critical drought has parched much of Brazil’s vegetation and caused wildfires across South American nations, cloaking cities in clouds of smoke.

“Climate change is no longer something to worry about in the future, 10 or 20 years from now. It’s here and it’s here with much more force than we expected,” Batista added.

The Solimoes in Tabatinga was measured at 4.25 meters below average for the first half of September.

At Tefé, the river was 2.92 meters below the average level for the same two weeks last year and is expected to drop further to its lowest-ever.

In Manaus, the Amazon’s largest city, where the Solimoes joins the Rio Negro to form the Amazon River proper, the level of the Rio Negro is approaching the record low reached in October last year.

“Last year, we were in this situation by October,” said Indigenous leader Kambeba. “This year, the drought has gotten worse.”

Rosmarie Wydler-Walti and Anne Mahrer, of the Swiss elderly women group Senior Women for Climate Protection, attend the hearing of the court for the ruling in the climate case Verein KlimaSeniorinnen Schweiz and Others v. Switzerland, at the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) in Strasbourg, France April 9, 2024.
| Photo Credit: Reuters

Switzerland for all its snow-capped mountains and crisp Alpine air has failed to protect its people from the ravages of climate change, as a top European court ruled this week.

Behind the picture postcard exterior, critics say, is a country that has done too little for the planet and acted as a business hub for some of the most powerful international corporations in fossil fuels and mining.

Political analysts and academics also say entrenched conservatism and a political system governed by popular referendums will complicate reform even after Tuesday’s ruling by the European Court of Human Rights in Strasbourg.

It found in favour of over 2,000 Swiss women – a third of them over 75 – who said their country’s inaction in the face of rising temperatures puts them at risk of dying during heatwaves.

The ruling cannot be appealed and the Swiss Federal Office of Justice, which represented the government before the court, said it must be implemented. It said it would analyse the ruling to determine the measures the country needed to take.

Immediately after the court decision, the Swiss Green Party called for climate targets for specific industries, including the finanical sector.

“People may have slightly beautiful dreams about Switzerland,” Lisa Mazzone, the party leader, said.

“Switzerland is the country of commodity trading, Switzerland is the country with a strong financial sector with a lot of investment in fossil fuels,” she added.

Swiss-based commodity trading companies handle 40% of all oil trades and 60% of the metal trading business, according to data published by industry association Suissenégoce.

The group of Swiss women known as KlimaSeniorinnen did not make Swiss trading central to their case, although their Greenpeace-backed campaign that lasted many years called for tougher regulation to curb transactions fueling global warming.

Referendums

A 2022 international study into environmental sustainability ranked Switzerland in the top 10, but government efforts to implement stricter climate goals have so far been limited by the country’s regular referendums.

Leading Swiss newspapers took a sceptical view of the ruling in editorials that said it could undermine democracy.

The largest party, the right-wing Swiss People’s Party, said Switzerland should withdraw from the Council of Europe, which seeks to promote human rights in Europe and beyond, calling the court’s judges “puppets for activists”.

Unlike most western democracies where central governments drive political change, Switzerland is governed by a cross-party consensus balancing the interests of its 26 cantons.

Dilara Bayrak, a Green politician in Geneva, said the ruling should still energise climate debate in cantonal parliaments.

Financial muscle and tons of carbon

The ruling is also likely to sharpen environmental campaigners’ focus on how Switzerland’s serves global industry through its network of traders and banks.

The financial sector, including the central bank, is already under pressure from environmental groups to curb the number of climate-damaging transactions it processes.

Data published last month by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) showed that its investments were linked to 12 million metric tons of carbon emissions in 2023.

Stakes in oil majors Chevron Corp and Exxon Mobil are part of its foreign reserves, which stood at 655 billion Swiss francs ($738.28 billion) at the end of 2023.

The SNB said it is reducing its own CO2 emissions, but would not change its investment policy. It declined to comment when asked whether the Strasbourg court ruling would lead to changes.

The actions the ruling say Switzerland must carry out include revising its 2030 emissions reductions targets to align them with the Paris Agreement’s aim to limit warming to 1.5 Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels.

It also determined that Switzerland had not complied with its own targets for cutting greenhouse gas emissions and had failed to set a national carbon budget.

But the country’s deep-rooted tradition of referendums is likely to make reform a slow process.

“It’s not going to happen overnight,” said Pascal Mahon, a professor of constitutional law at the University of Neuchâtel.

“Switzerland is a country that respects international law rather well,” he added. “Authorities will make sure to (respect) it, but by doing it through the Swiss political system, that’s still relatively slow and conservative.”

When soaring temperatures, extreme weather and catastrophic wildfires strike the headlines, population get started asking for quick fixes to climate change. The U.S. executive simply introduced the first awards from a US$3.5 billion fund for initiatives that guarantee to tug carbon dioxide out of the breeze. Policymakers also are exploring extra invasive types of geoengineering − the planned, large-scale manipulation of Earth’s herbal methods.

The underlying infection has been identified for many years: Fossil-fuel automobiles and gear vegetation, deforestation and unsustainable agricultural practices were placing more carbon dioxide into the circumstance than the Earth’s methods can naturally take away, and that’s heating up the planet.

Geoengineering, theoretically, targets to revive that balance, both by way of putting off huge carbon dioxide from the circumstance or reflecting solar power clear of Earth.

However converting Earth’s complicated and interconnected situation device will have accidental aftereffects. Adjustments that backup one area may hurt any other, and the consequences will not be unclouded till it’s too past due.

Also Read | EU calls for global talks on climate geoengineering risks

As a geologist and situation scientist, I consider those aftereffects aren’t but sufficiently understood. Past the prospective bodily aftereffects, international locations don’t have the prison or social constructions in park to supremacy each its importance and the fallout when issues advance mistaken. Alike considerations were highlighted by way of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the United Nations Situation Programme, the National Academy of Sciences and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, among others.

The White House Place of business of Science and Generation Coverage additionally mentioned those considerations in its July 2023 research plan for investigating doable situation interventions.

Dangers of sun radiation control

When population pay attention the pledge “geoengineering,” they almost certainly image sun radiation control. Those applied sciences, lots of them nonetheless theoretical, attempt to mirror solar power clear of Earth’s floor.

The theory of stratospheric aerosol injection, for instance, is to seed the higher circumstance with billions of little debris that mirror daylight without delay out to dimension. Cirrus cloud thinning targets to shed the affect of high-altitude, wispy clouds that lure power inside the circumstance by way of making their ice crystals higher, heavier and much more likely to precipitate. Every other, cloud brightening, targets to extend the superiority of brighter, lower-level clouds that mirror daylight, in all probability by way of spraying seawater into the breeze to extend H2O vapor focus.

Some scientists have steered going additional and putting in arrays of space mirrors that might shed international temperature by way of reflecting solar power away ahead of it reaches the circumstance.

Hour theoretically able to cooling the planet, sun radiation control could have drastic side effects by way of transferring patterns of world atmospheric circulate that may govern to extra terminating climate occasions. It additionally does not anything to shed harms of huge greenhouse gases, together with ocean acidification. A 2022 find out about revealed within the medical magazine Nature predicted that stratospheric aerosol injection may regulate international precipitation patterns and shed agricultural productiveness.

Cloud brightening, month efficient in principle, additionally wishes more research to produce certain that efforts to extend lower-level reflective clouds that may backup cool Earth’s floor don’t additionally building up the superiority of the high-altitude clouds that heat the planet.

Range mirrors positioned between the Solar and Earth could theoretically block 2% of incoming sun radiation and stabilize international temperature. However the era is no less than two decades clear of implementation and would price trillions of greenbacks. Extra importantly, the overall global impact of shading Earth’s floor is in large part unknown. It’s going to shorten regional ocean and breeze temperatures in techniques that can affect changes within the jet current, drizzle, snow preserve, typhoon patterns and in all probability even monsoons. A lot more analysis is had to explain those uncertainties.

Also Read | IISc scientists receive grant to study impact of solar radiation modification as proposed intervention to climate change

Eliminating carbon dioxide from the breeze

Carbon dioxide removing applied sciences usually lift debase dangers than manipulating solar power.

Carbon capture and storage eliminates carbon dioxide from energy vegetation and factories and retail outlets it underground in deep geological reservoirs. This has confirmed doable, but it surely raises considerations that leaks would possibly contaminate aquifers, hurt folk fitness and in the end fail to hold carbon out of the circumstance.

The era is also expensive and depends upon the proximity of appropriate reservoirs for vault.

Direct breeze seize, designed to tug carbon out of the breeze, is still in its early stages however offer the good thing about having the ability to shed current ranges of carbon dioxide within the circumstance. This, too, is pricey, at upward of $600 per metric ton of carbon dioxide captured these days, however innovators are getting funding from the U.S. government.

There also are herbal techniques to take away carbon. Planting trees, for instance, can take away carbon without delay from the circumstance, however that is not enough. If all of the land to be had for reforestation have been replanted, it will nonetheless not be enough to opposite stream international warming tendencies.

Ocean fertilization is any other geoengineering hack supposed to spice up carbon sequestration, however research is at an early stage. The methodology supplies vitamins reminiscent of iron to extend the expansion of phytoplankton, which importance dissolved carbon from the circumstance to develop their shells and tissue. Nevertheless it may additionally have unintended effects for the meals chain that might hurt ocean generation.

The prison void

Past protection, any other remarkable query comes to duty.

There’s a just right anticipation that geoengineering supposed to backup one area would hurt others. That’s as a result of ocean and climate methods are globally interconnected.

So, who gets to decide which initiatives can advance forward? Presently, that’s a prison void.

There is not any regulatory framework that may decide who’s liable if one thing is going mistaken. Multinational alliances, particular person states, companies or even affluent prosperous folks can act independently without consulting anyone. Within the tournament of damage that crosses nationwide limitations, there’s these days deny unclouded trail for recourse.

Hanging the fitting stability

None of that is to mention that the sector must brush aside geoengineering.

Carbon dioxide removing tactics, reminiscent of planting bushes and extending soil carbon sequestration – protecting extra natural carbon in fruitful grounds – might handover extra advantages to ecosystem services by way of expanding species range and boosting agricultural productiveness. Those are all sure results and must be a part of a world situation reaction.

Some methods of stratospheric aerosol injection would possibly keep away from the destruction of ozone and feature decrease generation spans within the circumstance. On the other hand, extra rigorous analysis, clear international governance and strong legal and ethical frameworks to supremacy dangers and assure fairness are wanted first.

I consider all of the applied sciences will have to be complemented by way of deep and sustained efforts to reduce emissions and transform the power device to keep away from the worldwide affects of sea-level get up, hovering temperature, droughts, storms, floods, fires, famine, species extinction and extending human war.

As Riley Duren, a systems engineer from NASA, mentioned in an interview with the dimension company: “Geoengineering is not a cure. At best, it’s a Band-Aid or tourniquet; at worst, it could be a self-inflicted wound.”