New Delhi:

In his New Year speech a week ago, Chinese President Xi Jinping threatened that “no one can stop the reunification” of Taiwan with China. As President Xi delivered his speech, the People’s Liberation Army Navy carried out military drills to show its might to Taiwan and the rest of the democratic world.

Much of the military manoeuvres were carried near the islands of Kinmen and Matsu – which are a sovereign territory of Taiwan and barely 5.3 nautical miles (10 km) and 10 nautical miles (19 km) respectively from the coast of mainland China. In comparison, these islands are 150 nautical miles (280 km) and 114 nautical miles (211 km) from the coast of Taiwan.

Despite being right on the coastline with mainland China, it is interesting to note that Beijing has never been able to take over these Taiwanese islands in battle. In fact, China has lost two battles decisively to Taiwan.

PRC vs ROC

China and Taiwan are separated by the Strait of Taiwan – a waterway that connects the South China Sea to the East China Sea between the two nations.

Before 1949, China was known as the Republic of China and was founded on the ideology of democratic values. It was led by the Kuomintang Party, founded in 1912 and advocated by its founder and ideologue Sun Yat-sen, who organised the party on a values of democratic centralism. Years later, during the civil war with communist forces led by Mao Zedong, the Kuomintang was led by Chian Kai-shek, a co-founder of the party and then President of the Republic of China.

The Chinese civil war ended in 1949 with a victory of Mao Zedong’s communist movement and defeat of Chiang Kai-shek’s ruling Kuomintang party, which had to flee to Taiwan. Mao Zedong declared that the Republic of China will henceforth be known to the world as People’s Republic of China – a communist country.

The Kuomintang and its democratic ideals took shelter in the island nation of Taiwan, whose official name is still the Republic of China – a democratic nation.

This is the way it has remained for the last 76 years, despite multiple attempts by communist forces to decimate democracy and wipe out its ideals from Taiwan and its territories – all of which have failed.

China, now considered a global superpower, still aims to make Taiwan its own, and Xi Jinping, who currently leads the Chinese Communist Party desires to fulfill what Mao Zedong couldn’t.

THE BATTLE OF KINMEN

Towards the end of the civil war, when victory over Mainland China was certain, Mao Zedong’s Communist Party decided to launch a crushing offensive against Taiwan – the final frontier yet to be conquered. So fervent their hatred for the Kuomintang and its democratic ideals that the Communist Party wanted to eradicate every square inch of the Republic of China. Beijing’s stance to take over Taiwan “at all cost” stems from the policy that as long as there is a Republic of China, there is a chink in the armour, from where an uprising, a civil war or the spread of another ideology is possible.

Taking over Taiwan would mean leaving the mainland and sending troops overseas to the island nation and going to war with them in their own territory – a move that would not be easy. Mao Zedong decided that to finally take over Taiwan, it is a must to first take over is islets and territories which are located closer to the mainland – namely the Kinmen and Matsu.

Kinmen consists of two large islands and thirteen islets. Being the closer of the two Taiwanese territories, Mao Zedong decided to target these first. Greater Kinmen – the largest island – became the primary target. But its geography was an advantage to the Taiwanese forces. Its eastern side has mountainous terrain and its coastline rocky and rugged makes it a challenge for an external threat. its western side, facing mainland China has beaches which are easier for an enemy to breach in times of war – and for Beijing logistically suitable too.

The Chinese Army decided to do this in two bursts – the first comprising roughly 10,000 soldiers who would reach the island and set up a garrison, then wait for reinforcements to arrive – another 10,000 soldiers. This they thought would be enough to overpower the Taiwanese forces, which were estimated to be of a similar strength in numbers. China assumed that the Taiwanese forces would be demoralised with the fall of mainland China and would be easy to defeat. But that wasn’t to be.

Anticipating such a move by communist China, Taiwanese forces had lined up the coastline with nearly 7,500 landmines. The beaches were secured to stop any form of amphibious transport and the rest of the island was fortified with strategically placed mines, traps, and hundreds of bunkers.

Taiwan had also prepared well for such an attack by strengthening its infantry as well as its armoured divisions, including two tank regiments. The battle began on October 25, with China aiming to wrest control of the island in three days. So began the Battle of Kimen, which is officially known as the Battle of Guningtou.

The land mines and traps led to heavy Chinese casualties and the armoured divisions of the Taiwanese forces gave a crushing blow to the Chinese troops. The amphibious transport vessels were damaged by anti-amphibious weapons and ended up being beached on the island. Their failure to return to the mainland meant that the next round of soldiers could not be sent in time.

The artillery firing from mainland China did not help much. Meanwhile the Taiwanese air force and navy began a counter-offense by first damaging all the Chinese boats near the Kinmen islands. Soldiers of the Chinese Army faced heavy casualties against the US-made machine guns and tanks which the Taiwanese soldiers used.

At the end of day one itself, the Chinese army lost more than half its soldiers and more than 70 per cent of its ammunition and transport. with its boats and amphibious vessels destroyed, the troops were isolated. The Taiwanese military also further strengthened its positions by vastly cutting off Guningtou.

The next day reinforcements managed to reach with approximately 1,000 Chinese soldiers joining the battle. But by then the Taiwanese were on the offense and with US-made M5A1 Suart light tanks aiding the infantry, took control of Guningtou, which was under communist control at the time.

By the end of day two, the Chinese troops ran out of food and supplies. The following morning Taiwanese soldiers overpowered the communist forces and more than 5,000 soldiers were kept as prisoners of war. Not only was Kinmen retained by Taiwan, but the communist forces lost the control of Guningtou too. It was a humiliating defeat for Mao Zedong and People’s Republic of China – a name declared just earlier that month.

Throughout the 1950s and beyond, multiple invasions were attempted by China, but each attempt failed. The United States has on several occasions come to the aid of Taiwan as China’s influence grew, but China never dared attack the US navy directly as Beijing did not want direct war with Washington.

Even today, China considers Taiwan a renegade island province – one that it must take over “at all costs”. Beijing has repeatedly said it will not renounce the use of force to bring Taiwan under its control. Its war drills are increasing in scale and frequency with the latest manoeuvres as recently as New Year’s day.
 

China claims Taiwan as part of its own territory and has refused to rule out using force to bring the island under its control. File
| Photo Credit: Reuters

China deployed fighter jets and drones as part of a “joint combat readiness patrol” around Taiwan on Sunday (October 27, 2024), Taipei said, hours after Beijing slammed the latest round of US arms sales to the island.

The U.S. State Department on Friday (October 25, 2024) approved a $2 billion arms sale package for Taiwan, including advanced surface-to-air missile systems and radar. The deal awaits approval by Congress.

Taiwan’s Defence Ministry said it detected 19 Chinese aircraft on Sunday (October 27, 2024), including fighter jets and drones, near the island over a nearly four-hour period as part of Beijing’s “joint combat readiness patrol” with warships.

It was the third such patrol reported by Taiwan’s Defence Ministry this month.

“Taiwan’s Military closely monitored the situation with joint intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance systems, deploying aircraft, naval vessels, and shore-based missile systems as an appropriate response,” the Ministry said.

It came a day after Beijing’s Foreign Ministry said the latest arms package “seriously violates China’s sovereignty and security interests, seriously damages China-U.S. relations, and endangers peace and stability” in the strait.

“China strongly condemns and firmly opposes it and has lodged solemn representations with the U.S.,” a Ministry spokesperson said in a statement late Saturday (October 26, 2024).

It added that Beijing would “take all necessary measures to firmly defend national sovereignty, security and territorial integrity”.

Taipei’s Defence Ministry expressed its “sincere gratitude” for the sale on Saturday (October 26, 2024), saying it would “help the Military continue to improve its defence resilience and jointly maintain peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait”.

China claims Taiwan as part of its own territory and has refused to rule out using force to bring the island under its control.

Beijing maintains a near-daily presence of fighter jets, drones and warships around the democratic island, and held large-scale war games in its vicinity this month.

Earlier this month, Taiwan detected a record 153 Chinese aircraft in one day.

The U.S. is Taipei’s key partner and provider of weapons despite having no official diplomatic ties with the democratic island.

In September, Beijing sanctioned U.S. defence companies in retaliation for Washington’s approval of the sale of military equipment to Taiwan.

Taiwanese armoured vehicles roll down a street in Kinmen on May 24, 2024. China warned on May 24 that Taiwan’s leadership was pushing the self-ruled island into “a perilous situation of war and danger” and that it would go “further” if provoked, as Beijing conducted military drills around the territory.
| Photo Credit: AFP

China ended two days of war games around Taiwan, in which it simulated attacks with bombers and practiced boarding ships, and Taiwan’s defence ministry detailed on Saturday the surge of Chinese warplanes and warships involved.

Chinese State television’s military channel said late on Friday the drills had concluded. A commentary in the official People’s Liberation Army Daily said they had lasted for two days from Thursday to Friday, as previously announced.

China’s Defence Ministry did not answer calls seeking comment on Saturday.

China, which claims democratically governed Taiwan as its own territory, launched the “Joint Sword – 2024A” exercises three days after Lai Ching-te became Taiwan’s President, a man Beijing says is a “separatist”.

Beijing said the exercises were “punishment” for Mr. Lai’s Monday inauguration speech, in which he said the two sides of the Taiwan Strait were “not subordinate to each other”, which China viewed as a declaration the two are separate countries.

Mr. Lai has repeatedly offered talks with China but been rebuffed. He says only Taiwan’s people can decide their future, and rejects Beijing’s sovereignty claims. Taiwan’s government has condemned the drills and said it will not be cowed by Chinese pressure.

On Friday 46 Chinese military planes crossed the Taiwan Strait’s median line, which previously served as an unofficial barrier between the two sides, Taiwan’s Defence Ministry said on Saturday. It said it had detected a total of 62 Chinese aircraft and 27 navy ships.

The aircraft, including advanced Su-30 fighters and nuclear-capable H-6 bombers, flew in the strait as well as down into the Bashi Channel, which separates Taiwan from the Philippines, the ministry said.

On Friday it published footage taken by Taiwanese air force planes of a Chinese J-16 fighter and an H-6 but did not say exactly where it was taken.

China has over the past four years regularly staged military activities around Taiwan, including large-scale war games in 2022 and in 2023.

The People’s Liberation Army Daily commentary, published as “the voice of the military”, said Mr. Lai was determined to act as a “pawn” for external forces to curb China’s development.

“If Taiwan independence separatist forces insist on going their own way or even take risks, the PLA will obey orders and take decisive action to resolutely smash all separatist plots,” it said.

India is studying possible responses to a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan following discreet inquiries from the US on how the country could contribute in the event of a war, according to senior government officials.

About six weeks ago, Defense Chief General Anil Chauhan – the top military commander – commissioned a study to examine the wider impact of any war over the island that also involves the US and its allies, and what action India could take in response, according to two senior Indian officials, who asked not to be named since discussions are private. The order came after the US raised the issue in several different forums, they said.

The study will assess various war scenarios and provide options for India in case a conflict breaks out, they said. Some military commanders believe that strong statements may suffice as a response in case the war is short, but ultimately that will not be enough if the conflict drags on like Russia’s war in Ukraine, the officials said.

India’s preparation for a potential war over Taiwan shows how its policy of “multi-alignment” will be tested in the event of a drastic deterioration of US-China ties. Under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India has forged its own path on international relations, effectively hedging its bets by developing close ties to the US while refusing to join international sanctions on Russia.

Yet tensions with China have also flared along their disputed Himalayan border, contributing to a deterioration in relations that may have prompted President Xi Jinping to skip the Group of 20 summit this weekend in New Delhi. India has strengthened defense ties with the US in recent years, joining the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue along with Japan and Australia – a band of democracies intent on countering China’s growing influence.

One option the Indian military will study involves serving as a logistics hub to provide repair and maintenance facilities for allied warships and aircraft, as well as food, fuel and medical equipment for armies resisting China, the officials said. A more extreme scenario, they added, would assess the potential for India to get directly involved along their northern border, opening a new theater of war for China.

While no deadline has been set to complete the study, the Indian military is under orders to finish it as soon as possible, one of the officials said. The options prepared will be available for PM Modi and other political leaders to make a final call on any action should the need arise, the official said.

The Defence and Foreign ministries didn’t respond to emailed questions. The US State Department didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

“By hyping up the Taiwan question, creating tensions and provoking confrontation, the US attempts to turn the Taiwan question into an international issue,” Mao Ning, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, told reporters in Beijing on Friday. “This is highly dangerous.”

India and China have mobilized thousands of troops, artillery guns, tanks and missiles closer to the unmarked border running some 3,500 km, roughly the length of the US-Mexico boundary. Diplomatic talks have yielded little, with China last month releasing a new map claiming India-controlled territory that Foreign Minister S Jaishankar described as “absurd.”

India has publicly resisted efforts to make the Quad appear like a military alliance, and remains reliant on Russia – China’s most important diplomatic partner – for weapons that would be used in any regional war. Even so, it has quietly sought better relations with Taiwan: Three former Indian military chiefs who stepped down in the past year all visited Taiwan last month.

Five years ago, India and the US signed a Logistics-Exchange Memorandum of Agreement, a foundational pact to allow refueling and replenishing of warships and aircraft, as well as access to bases when required.

Even though India is examining military options, it remains unlikely that the nation would get involved directly in a war over Taiwan, according to Lisa Curtis, senior fellow and director of the Indo-Pacific Security Program at the Washington-based Centre for a New American Security, who earlier worked with the National Security Council, CIA and the State Department. It’s possible India may provide access to places like the Andaman and Nicobar Islands near Southeast Asia, she added.

“If there were to be some kind of conflict or crises in the Taiwan Strait, I think India’s position would be to stand back and not get militarily involved,” she said. “Even though they may support Taiwan with statements and humanitarian assistance, I think they would be very weary about providing any kind of military assistance to the United States.”

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)