A woman checks her wedding dress at a bridal shop in Luliang, in northern China’s Shanxi province on February 11.
| Photo Credit: AFP

The story so far: There has been a major decline in the number of couples who are registering to marry in China. As per the Chinese Ministry of Civil Affairs, in 2024, across China, only 6.1 million couples registered, a drop of 20.3% compared to 2023 figures. This is the lowest number of registrations since 1986. As the general cost of living and urban unemployment has risen, with almost 44% of urban women not wanting to marry, marriages in China are declining.

What is the problem?

While stand-alone this may not appear as a very pertinent challenge, coupled with the consistent decline in population, it gets compounded. China’s population has been declining consistently for the last three years and in 2022 the number of deaths exceeded birthrates. The primary reason for this is the one-child policy, introduced in the 1980s and implemented with great zeal. Chinese President Xi Jinping has tried to reverse the trend by introducing the two-child policy in 2016, which was later modified to a three-child policy in 2021. However, the policy shift has failed to have any major impact. Furthermore, the desire for a male child has led to an unbalanced sex-ratio as well.

Does China have an ageing people?

The declining population has now become a demographic challenge for Mr. Xi. As a result of these policies, China has witnessed a steady decline in the number of working age people (19-59 years). People above 60 years make up 22% of the Chinese population today and maybe 50% by 2050. This has also intensified the pension pressure, as the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) predicts that the pension fund may run out by 2035. In order to postpone such reality, the government has increased the retirement age from 60 to 63 for men and to 55 for women. This would be a temporary solution because if the gap continues to rise, it will provide only a limited respite. The falling birthrates have also increased the demand for care giving and healthcare, while a lot of kindergartens have been shutting down.

The reducing population and the challenges which this leads to directly impacts the economic future and stability of the Chinese government. Even though the government has been attempting to lure people with financial support, the cost of raising a child is proving an insurmountable deterrent to the people.

What is Chinese government doing?

Rather than accepting the reality of the situation and its far-reaching impact, the Xi government is still attempting to resolve this with policies and diktats. Such an approach showcases that the government is still looking for ways to change ground realities with the help of top-down processes without acknowledging that these issues need to be accepted as social reality, and thus need people-centric solutions which echo with Chinese society today.

For example, while delivering a speech at the Women’s Federation of China, Mr. Xi called on the women to, “actively cultivate a new culture of marriage and childbearing and strengthen guidance on young people’s view on marriage, childbirth and family”. This statement underscores the gap between the Communist Party of China (CPC) and society in China today. The CPC has a long history of interfering in the lives of Chinese women, with the most prominent example being the one-child policy. The CPC under Mr. Xi is still looking at ways to control and command society. It strongly believes that the people should undertake tasks which are commanded by the party with the premise that it knows what is best for the nation. These policies seem to be directed towards safeguarding the power of the party, and not to the needs of the larger society.

Gunjan Singh is Associate Professor at OP Jindal Global University.

Luliang, China:

Moments after registering their marriage, Zhang Gang and Weng Linbin posed in front of a red backdrop adorned with a Chinese government emblem, fanning out the wad of cash they had received as an incentive to wed.

Zhang’s home city of Luliang in northern Shanxi province is one of many places in China where local authorities are offering a slew of inducements to coax couples into tying the knot.

The 1,500-yuan ($205) reward the couple received is part of official efforts to boost the country’s population, which fell for the third straight year in 2024.

The sum is half a month’s average wage for Luliang’s urban population — and more than the monthly average wage for its rural citizens, according to official data.

“I think this policy is quite effective in improving the current marital and romantic situation,” Zhang told AFP.

“When I mentioned this policy to my friends, they all thought it was great.”

More generally, though, authorities are fighting a tide of reluctance from young people.

Last year marriages dropped by a fifth compared to 2023, data released Monday showed.

When it comes to having children, experts say that higher costs — especially for education and childcare — and the challenging employment market for recent graduates are among factors discouraging would-be parents.

When Luliang’s cash incentive for marriage was announced online, many commented that the amount wouldn’t be enough to justify the commitment.

The reward — which has an age cut-off of 35 for women — is just the flashiest part of the package.

The former mining city is also offering subsidies and medical insurance contributions for registering newborns.

Married couples in Luliang are given 2,000 yuan for their first registered child, 5,000 for their second and 8,000 for their third.

Wedding rush?

At a Luliang marriage registry office on Wednesday, a festival day, a steady stream of couples were taking advantage of the nuptial bounty, which kicked in on January 1.

The sound of an automatic money counter whirred persistently as lovebirds were handed stacks of fresh 100-yuan bills.

An official at the registry told AFP that since New Year’s Day, their office alone had seen over 400 couples get marriage certificates.

At one point the office ran out of cash, said 36-year-old Wang Yanlong, who came to pick up his money this week after getting married in early January.

However, this apparent wedding rush might be deceptive.

“My colleague who was preparing to get married next year decided, because of this benefit, to do it this year,” said 34-year-old newlywed Li Yingxing.

Zhang and Weng said they were planning to marry earlier but waited for the bonus, and a registrar in another Luliang district told AFP that many couples had done similarly.

Few good men

An advertisement for the 1,500-yuan reward sits among testimonies from happy clients in matchmaker Feng Yuping’s office in Luliang.

Most of her clients are women, but the 48-year-old was pessimistic about the prospects of them finding a husband even with the new incentives.

“A man working at a state-owned enterprise might have a bachelor’s degree, but he won’t even look at a girl with a master’s degree in the civil service,” Feng said.

“There are still a lot of problems with men’s attitudes towards marriage.”

Feng said that often women are better educated, with a good job, but are rejected because of their age.

Some are turning off marriage altogether.

“Women now have their own stable income,” Feng said. “They may be less interested in getting married. And there aren’t many good men.”

The result has been a decline in Luliang’s population.

“The birth rate has dropped seriously,” Feng said, citing examples of kindergartens closing because of lack of demand.

Widespread incentives

Luliang’s predicament is common across China, with the ageing population a major preoccupation of Beijing.

The government released a report in October listing incentives similar to those in Luliang

Shangyou county in Jiangxi province has been giving out cash rewards for each family that has a second or third child, the report said.

Meanwhile, subsidies that can reach around 165,000 yuan for families with three children in Tianmen, Hubei province were credited by media with reversing a decline in birth rates last year — though the data is still limited.

In Luliang, even those who said the new measures might encourage more couples to get hitched thought the perks were secondary to people’s decision to marry or not.

“The cost of marriage for young people is indeed very high, and it is a factor,” said Zhang.

“However, I believe that as long as young people are in love, they will inevitably walk down the aisle together.”

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)