Beijing:

The disappearance of China’s defence minister, the latest in a string of upheavals in the country’s top ranks, is stoking uncertainty about President Xi Jinping’s rule as an internal security clampdown trumps international engagement. The growing unpredictability could affect the confidence other countries place in the leadership of the world’s second-biggest economy, diplomats and analysts say.

Defence Minister Li Shangfu, who has missed meetings including with at least one foreign counterpart since he was last seen in late August, is under investigation in a corruption probe into military procurement, Reuters reported on Friday.

Newly installed Foreign Minister Qin Gang vanished with scant explanation in July, the same month as an abrupt shake-up of the military’s elite Rocket Force, which oversees China’s nuclear arsenal.

As Xi, China’s commander-in-chief has focussed inward, he caused concern among foreign diplomats this month by missing a Group of 20 summit in India, the first time he has skipped the global leaders’ gathering in his decade in power.

Faced with the growing uncertainties, some diplomats and analysts are calling for a hard look at the true nature of Xi’s regime.

“Clear-eyed assessments are needed – this isn’t just a question of whether China is a partner or a competitor, it is a source of economic, political and military risk,” said Drew Thompson, a former Pentagon official who is now a scholar at the National University of Singapore.

Due to a lack of transparency surrounding the changes, various explanations were plausible “and this feeds the crisis of confidence that is brewing around China,” Thompson said.

China’s Foreign Ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Saturday.

Regarding Defence Minister Li’s disappearance and investigation, a ministry spokeswoman told reporters on Friday she was not aware of the situation. The State Council and Defence Ministry did not respond to requests for comment.

Since his appointment in March, Li has been the public face of China’s expanding military diplomacy, expressing concern over U.S. military operations during a high-profile security conference in June and visiting Russia and Belarus in August.

He had been expected to host an international security meeting in Beijing in October and represent the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) at a meeting in November of regional defence chiefs in Jakarta.

With corruption long permeating China’s military and state institutions, some analysts and diplomats believe Xi’s anti-graft crackdowns mark political purges across the Communist Party.

“Regardless of the reason… the sense that this could keep happening could have an impact on foreign actors’ confidence in engaging with their Chinese counterparts,” said Helena Legarda, lead analyst with the Mercator Institute for China Studies in Berlin.

The Li upheaval is unusual for its speed and its reach into Xi’s hand-picked elites.

“This is all so sudden and opaque. One thing we can now see is that proximity does not equate to patronage in Xi’s world,” said Singapore-based security analyst Alexander Neill, an adjunct fellow with Hawaii’s Pacific Forum think-tank.

CONTINUITY RISK

Although not in a direct command position, Li serves on Xi’s seven-person Central Military Commission and is one of China’s five state councillors, a cabinet position that outranks regular ministers. Some scholars believe he is close to General Zhang Youxia, who sits above him on the commission and is Xi’s closest ally in the PLA.

Li, sanctioned by Washington in 2018 for an arms deal with Russia, shunned a meeting with U.S. Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin at Singapore’s Shangri-la Dialogue security conference in June, where a handshake marked their closest interaction.

Austin and other U.S. officials are keen to resume high-level talks between the two militaries regional tensions roil. But Beijing counters that it wants Washington to be less assertive in the Asia-Pacific.

Regional envoys say deeper Chinese military diplomacy is vital, particularly with the U.S. but also with other powers, as China increasingly deploys forces around Taiwan – the democratically governed island it claims – and across disputed parts of the East and South China Seas.

If Li’s fate “reflects Xi’s increasingly inward focus, it is not good for those of us who want greater openness and lines of communications with China’s military,” said one Asian diplomat.

As the PLA has an unprecedented level of military engagements with Southeast Asian forces this year, the recent swift changes back in Beijing “spur speculation and some concern about the continuity of policy”, said political scientist Ja Ian Chong at the National University of Singapore.

“A shake-up of the military at this time is likely to draw attention, given the heightened activity of the PLA near Taiwan and the East China Sea, as well as stepped-up paramilitary activity in the South China Sea, since such actions create potential risk of accidents, escalation and crises,” Chong said.

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

Chinese Defence Minister Li Shangfu. File
| Photo Credit: AP

The U.S. government believes China’s Defence Minister Li Shangfu is the subject of an investigation by Beijing and has been relieved of his duties, the Financial Times reported late Thursday citing American officials.

The report came shortly before high-ranking diplomat Rahm Emanuel, the U.S. ambassador to Japan, stated on social media that Mr. Li “hasn’t been seen or heard from in 3 weeks,” and that the minister might have been placed under house arrest.

It is the latest sign of potential turmoil in Beijing after Chinese foreign minister Qin Gang inexplicably disappeared and was ousted from his post in July.

China also replaced the leadership of its Rocket Force, the army unit that oversees its nuclear arsenal, in July, with its former commander Li Yuchao not seen in public for weeks before the change and official media Xinhua giving no explanation for his removal.

Asked by AFP on Friday whether Li Shangfu was under investigation, a Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman said she was “not aware of the situation you raise.”

The Times reported that three U.S. officials as well as two people briefed on intelligence said the United States determined Li Shangfu had been stripped of his duties as minister.

It was not clear what made President Joe Biden’s administration conclude that Mr. Li was under investigation. The White House has not publicly addressed the matter.

Mr. Li traveled to Russia in August to attend a security conference near Moscow on August 15. Two days later, the government of Belarus released handout photographs of Mr. Li meeting with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko in Minsk.

Mr. Li has refused to hold meetings with U.S. counterparts until Washington lifts sanctions on him, imposed by then-president Donald Trump in 2018 for his procurement of Russian military technology.

The latest apparent removal of an elite Chinese official from public view led Ambassador Emanuel, who has been openly critical of Chinese President Xi Jinping, to fuel speculation about the issue on September 7 and again one week later.

“President Xi’s cabinet lineup is now resembling Agatha Christie’s novel And Then There Were None. First, Foreign Minister Qin Gang goes missing, then the Rocket Force commanders go missing, and now Defence Minister Li Shangfu hasn’t been seen in public for two weeks,” Mr. Emanuel posted last week on X (formerly Twitter) using the hashtag #MysteryInBeijingBuilding.

On Thursday, in another post on his official ambassador account that appeared to openly provoke the Xi government, he questioned whether Beijing authorities have restricted Mr. Li’s movements.

“1st: Defence Minister Li Shangfu hasn’t been seen or heard from in 3 weeks. 2nd: He was a no-show for his trip to Vietnam,” he wrote.

“Now: He’s absent from his scheduled meeting with the Singaporean Chief of Navy because he was placed on house arrest???… Might be getting crowded in there.”

Mr. Emanuel is a former White House chief of staff who earned a reputation in Washington for his ferocious style and hardball politics.

The remarks come at a time of heightened trade and geopolitical tensions between Washington and Beijing.