Raipur:

The BJP, which was in power in Chhattisgarh for 15 years under the leadership of Raman Singh, suffered a massive defeat at the hands of Congress in the 2018 assembly polls.

Apart from strong anti-incumbency, charges of corruption, lack of coordination between party organisation and the government led by it, and OBCs voting in favour of the Congress were attributed as some of the prominent reasons for its defeat five years ago.

In the 2018 elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) fielded 14 candidates hailing from Sahu community, a numerically dominant Other Backward Classes (OBC) community, but 13 of them bit the dust.

The BJP last year appointed party MP Arun Sao, who hails from Sahu community, as its state unit chief, and this move may work in its favour this time.

There are 90 seats in the Chhattisgarh assembly. The BJP has declared candidates on 21 seats for the upcoming assembly polls and most of them are representatives of panchayat bodies, which shows the party is gearing up for the electoral fight with its second-rung leaders replacing the old faces.

The party has announced to fight the elections under collective leadership without projecting any one person as its chief ministerial face, thereby sidelining the three-time Chief Minister Raman Singh.

Here is a SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the BJP in Chhattisgarh.

What Are BJP’ Strengths In Chhattisgarh?

The popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi is likely to work in the party’s favour in the state. After suffering a severe drubbing from the Congress in 2018, the BJP made an impressive comeback by capturing nine out of 11 Lok Sabha seats in 2019 in the state riding high on the strong image of PM Modi.

The Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), which had distanced itself from the BJP’s state unit in 2018, is visibly active on the ground this time.

The BJP is trying to tread on its traditional Hindutva line by highlighting the incidents of communal violence that occurred in Bemetara and Kabirdham districts during the present Congress regime and alleged religious conversions in tribal-dominated areas.

BJP’s Weaknesses In Chhattisgarh

Absence of a strong second-rung leadership in the saffron party in the state.

BJP’s long-used political issues pertaining to cows and Lord Ram have been snatched by the Congress.

In July 2020, Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel launched the Godhan Nyay Yojana (GNY) to procure cow dung at Rs 2 per kg, constructed Gauthans (places in villages where cows are kept in day-time) in villages, which are being converted into Rural Industrial Parks.

To keep the memories of contexts related to Lord Ram and Mata Kaushalya alive, the state government has undertaken the ‘Ram Van Gaman Tourism Circuit’ project and started developing nine places on the route (in Chhattisgarh) taken by Lord Ram during his 14-year exile, as tourist destinations. The government has so far erected tall statues of Lord Ram in four of these places.

BJP’s Opportunities In Chhattisgarh

People from assembly constituencies in the state’s rural parts are disenchanted with the BJP after it failed to keep up some of the promises it made to them during its 15-year rule.

There is perceptible anger among people against the ruling Congress over alleged scams in Chhattisgarh Public Service Commission and liquor trade.

Alleged differences among frontline Congress leaders appear to have disappeared at the top, but tension still persists at the bottom level. According to poll observers, rumblings within the Congress may benefit the BJP.

The BJP feels that the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and Sarva Adivasi Samaj candidates will eat into the support base of Congress.

Threats BJP Faces In Chhattisgarh

The Congress currently holds 71 seats in the 90-member assembly, while the BJP’s count is 13. The Congress had bagged 68 seats in 2018 and polled 42.8 per cent votes, 10 per cent more than the BJP. According to poll observers, the BJP faces a tough challenge to bridge this huge margin and cross the majority mark of 46 seats.

The Congress has strongly promoted regionalism in Chhattisgarh in the last five years to counter the nationalism strategy of the BJP, which happened for the first time in the state. Congress claims native population of Chhattisgarh was pushed to the edge in all spheres and no OBC, Scheduled Tribe (ST) and Scheduled Caste (SC) leaders were given prominence in the government during the 15-year rule of Raman Singh.

According to experts, the Congress government’s pro-farmer schemes may prove to be a big challenge for the BJP. Three flagship schemes – Rajiv Gandhi Kisan Nyay Yojana, Godhan Nyaya Yojana (cow dung procurement schemes) and Rajiv Gandhi Gramin Bhomihin Krishi Majdoor Krishi Nyay Yojana – have helped the ruling Congress to visibly consolidate its position in rural and semi-urban areas of the state in the last five years.

The BJP-led Centre is facing heat in Chhattisgarh on issues like inflation and uneven operation of passenger trains from the last one-and-a-half years. 

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

Raipur:

The Congress registered a landslide victory in the 2018 Chhattisgarh assembly elections because of the “strong” anti-incumbency against the BJP that had ruled the state for 15 years between 2003 and 2018. The Congress currently holds 71 seats in the 90-member state assembly and is aiming to win 75 seats in the upcoming elections riding on the Bhupesh Baghel-led government’s pro-farmers, pro-tribals, and pro-poor schemes.

The ruling party is also eyeing to cash in on CM Baghel’s popularity as he has a significant hold over the Other Backward Classes (OBC) and rural voters.

What Are Congress’ Strengths In Chhattisgarh?

Implementation of several welfare schemes, including Rajiv Gandhi Kisan Nyay and Godhan Nyay Yojana, catering to farmers and rural population, unemployment allowance, and procurement of millets and various forest produce at support price.

CM Baghel has developed his image as a son of the soil, enhancing his popularity among the native population. He has a significant hold over the Other Backward Classes (OBC) and rural voters.

In the last five years, the party has strengthened its organisational set-up till the booth level. Around 3 lakh youths associated with the Rajiv Yuva Mitan Club scheme could help the party in mobilising voters in its favour. This scheme is aimed at connecting young people of the state with creative works, developing leadership skills, and making them aware of their social responsibilities.

The Congress won bypolls held to five assembly seats in Chhattisgarh after 2018, consolidating its position in the state.

Congress’ Weaknesses In Chhattisgarh

There is factionalism and infighting in the grand old party’s state unit. In the last five years, CM Baghel’s bete noire in the party TS Singh Deo raised a banner of revolt multiple times. Finally, the party had to placate him by appointing him as the deputy chief minister earlier this year. Another leader Mohan Markam, a former state Congress president, was also not on good terms with Mr Baghel. But he was inducted into the state cabinet a few months back. Despite all this, the internal bickering is far from over.

The government is facing allegations of corruption in coal transportation, liquor sale, District Mineral Foundation (DMF) fund utilisation, and Public Service Commission recruitment in the state.

Some incidents of communal violence and clashes over religious conversion occurred in the state during the present regime, giving an opportunity to the opposition BJP to build a narrative against the Congress of being anti-Hindu.

Congress’ Opportunities In Chhattisgarh

The BJP has failed to mount an effective attack on the Congress in the last nearly five years.

 Leadership issue in the BJP: After the 2018 assembly polls, the BJP has changed its state chief thrice and also changed its leader of opposition in the state assembly last year. The saffron party has also virtually sidelined Raman Singh, whose last tenure as CM between 2013 and 2018 was rocked by alleged civil supplies scam and chit fund scam.

The Congress has been continuously targeting the BJP, claiming its central leadership does not have faith in the party’s frontline leaders in the state.

Weak BJP district units that failed to counter Congress’ narrative against the BJP-led Centre at the local level.

Threats Congress Faces In Chhattisgarh

Unfulfilled promises, including liquor ban and regularisation of contractual employees, may attract the wrath of people in various constituencies.

The ‘Modi factor’ gives the BJP an edge over rival parties.

Entry of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and Sarwa Adivasi Samaj (an umbrella body of tribal organisations) into the elections may damage the vote bank of the Congress.

Of the 68 Congress MLAs who were elected in 2018, a total of 35 were first timers and most of them are now facing opposition from the public over their performance. 

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)