Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) building in Mumbai.
| Photo Credit: Reuters

Benchmark equity indices declined in early trade on July 5 amid profit-taking after a record rally in the last few trading sessions and selling in blue-chips HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank.

The 30-share BSE Sensex plunged 504.27 points to 79,545.40. The NSE Nifty slipped 105.30 points to 24,196.85.

Among the 30 Sensex companies, HDFC Bank, Mahindra & Mahindra, Titan, Tata Steel, ICICI Bank, IndusInd Bank, Power Grid, and Kotak Mahindra Bank were the major laggards.

Sun Pharmaceuticals, JSW Steel, Larsen & Toubro, Hindustan Unilever, Reliance Industries, Infosys and Tech Mahindra were among the gainers.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net buyers in the capital markets on Thursday, as they purchased shares worth ₹2,575.85 crore, according to exchange data.

“FIIs’ huge long position in the index derivatives and strong buying in the cash market can support the market in the near term. An important trigger may come from the U.S. jobs data expected on Friday.

“If the jobs data show a loosening labour market and a slowing economy, it can lead to rate cuts by the Fed in September,” V.K. Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services, said.

In Asian markets, Seoul quoted higher, while Tokyo, Shanghai and Hong Kong traded lower.

“Most markets in the Asia-Pacific region traded lower due to the absence of cues from U.S. peers, with investors keenly awaiting the non-farm payroll data to be published later on Friday,” Avdhut Bagkar, Technical and Derivatives Analyst at StoxBox, said.

U.S. markets were closed on Thursday on the occasion of Independence Day.

Global oil benchmark Brent crude declined 0.37% to $87.11 a barrel.

On Thursday, the 30-share BSE Sensex scaled an intraday record high of 80,392.64 in early trade. Later, the Sensex closed 62.87 points or 0.08% higher at 80,049.67, its all-time closing high.

The broader Nifty also hit an intra-day record high of 24,401 in early trade before closing almost flat. The 50-issue index rose by 15.65 points or 0.06% to settle at a record 24,302.15.

Image used for representational purpose.
| Photo Credit: Reuters

The rupee appreciated 8 paise to 83.37 against the U.S. dollar in early trade on June 28, supported by a positive trend in domestic equities and foreign fund inflows.

Forex traders said the strength of the American currency in the overseas market and elevated crude oil prices weighed on the local unit and restricted the appreciation bias.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.42 and gained further ground to trade at 83.37 against the greenback in initial deals, registering an increase of 8 paise from its previous closing level.

On Thursday, the rupee appreciated 12 paise to settle at 83.45 against the U.S. dollar.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading higher by 0.15% at 106.06, ahead of the crucial U.S. inflation reading this evening.

Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, were trading 0.47% higher at $86.80 per barrel, as fears of supply disruptions from Russia and the Middle East on continued war offset slowing demand.

On Thursday, there were good inflows taking the rupee higher from Wednesday’s closing level, said Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury and Executive Director, Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP.

“Inflows are expected on Friday as well, it being the month-end and quarter-end and could take the rupee higher towards 83.35. Exporters may wait to sell while importers may buy the dips,” Mr. Bhansali added.

In the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex advanced 347.48 points, or 0.44%, to 79,590.66 points. The broader NSE Nifty rose 114.55 points, or 114.55%, to 24,159.05 points.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net buyers in the capital markets on Thursday, as they purchased shares worth ₹7,658.77 crore, according to exchange data.

Image used for representational purpose.
| Photo Credit: Reuters

Business activity in India expanded at a faster clip this month from May thanks to gains in manufacturing and services, according to a business survey that also showed the pace of job creation was at its strongest in over 18 years.

Robust gains in both sectors at the end of the first fiscal quarter meant a strong start to India’s economy this financial year after it expanded by 8.2% last year – the fastest expansion among major countries – partly led by buoyant manufacturing.

HSBC’s flash India Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index , compiled by S&P Global, rose to 60.9 in June from last month’s final reading of 60.5.

That marked nearly three years above the 50-level separating growth from contraction on a monthly basis.

“The composite flash PMI ticked up in June, supported by rises in both the manufacturing and service sectors, with the former recording a faster pace of growth,” noted Maitreyi Das, global economist at HSBC.

The manufacturing index showed bigger gains to 58.5 from 57.5 in May while the dominant services industry’s reading rose slightly to 60.4 this month from 60.2, adding to the continued expansion in India even as the global economy slows.

That was backed by a strong expansion in both manufacturing output and orders as well as business gains among services firms.

New export orders expanded for a 22nd consecutive month in June and remained robust, though the pace eased slightly after record growth last month.

Robust demand prompted companies to hire more people, with overall employment generation rising at the fastest pace since April 2006. Job creation among manufacturers was higher than in the services sector.

Boosting jobs will remain the biggest challenge for the Narendra Modi government which got elected for a rare third term earlier this month, a Reuters poll showed.

Meanwhile, price increases at firms have eased since May, boding well for the outlook on retail inflation. Rises in services input costs eased to a four-month low, while the pace of increases in prices charged to clients was broadly unchanged.

“Input cost inflation eased slightly in June, but remained elevated with panellists citing increases in labour and material costs. The output price index suggests manufacturing firms were able to pass on higher costs to customers,” added Ms. Das.

“Optimism about future output weakened in June, but remained above the historical average.”

Even though business optimism weakened to a three-month low, the outlook for the coming year remained positive as companies expect output gains based on proposals in the pipeline, efficiency gains and forecasts for favourable exchange rates.

Representational image of the seal of the Board of Governors of the United States Federal Reserve System
| Photo Credit: AP

United States Federal Reserve officials will likely make official what’s been clear for many weeks: With inflation sticking at a level above their 2% target, they are downgrading their outlook for interest rate cuts.

In a set of quarterly economic forecasts they will issue after their latest meeting ends, the policymakers are expected to project that they will cut their benchmark rate just once or twice by year’s end, rather than the three times they had envisioned in March.

The Fed’s rate policies typically have a significant impact on the costs of mortgages, auto loans, credit card rates and other forms of consumer and business borrowing. The downgrade in their outlook for rate cuts would mean that such borrowing costs would likely stay higher for longer, a disappointment for potential homebuyers and others.

ALSO READ | Recalcitrant jumbo: Editorial on inflation

Still, the Fed’s quarterly projections of future interest rate cuts are by no means fixed in time. The policymakers frequently revise their plans for rate cuts — or hikes — depending on how economic growth and inflation measures evolve over time.

But if borrowing costs remain high in the coming months, they could also have consequences for the presidential race. Though the unemployment rate is a low 4%, hiring is robust and consumers continue to spend, voters have taken a generally sour view of the economy under President Joe Biden. In large part, that’s because prices remain much higher than they were before the pandemic struck. High borrowing rates impose a further financial burden.

The Fed’s updated economic forecasts, which it will issue Wednesday afternoon, will likely be influenced by the government’s May inflation data being released in the morning. The inflation report is expected to show that consumer prices excluding volatile food and energy costs — so-called core inflation — rose 0.3% from April to May. That would be the same as in the previous month and higher than Fed officials would prefer to see.

ALSO READ | Rationale behind raising interest rates

Overall inflation, held down by falling gas prices, is thought to have edged up just 0.1%. Measured from a year earlier, consumer prices are projected to have risen 3.4% in May, the same as in April.

Inflation had fallen steadily in the second half of last year, raising hopes that the Fed could achieve a “soft landing,” whereby it would manage to conquer inflation through rate hikes without causing a recession. Such an outcome is difficult and rare.

But inflation came in unexpectedly high in the first three months of this year, delaying hoped-for Fed rate cuts and potentially imperiling a soft landing.

In early May, Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank needed more confidence that inflation was returning to its target before it would reduce its benchmark rate. Powell noted that it would likely take more time to gain that confidence than Fed officials had previously thought.

Last month, Christopher Waller, an influential member of the Fed’s Board of Governors, said he needed to see “several more months of good inflation data” before he would consider supporting rate cuts. Though Mr. Waller didn’t spell out what would constitute good data, economists think it would have to be core inflation of 0.2% or less each month.

Mr. Powell and other Fed policymakers have also said that as long as the economy stays healthy, they see no need to cut rates soon.

“Fed officials have clearly signaled that they are in a wait-and-see mode with respect to the timing and magnitude of rate cuts,” Matthew Luzzetti, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank, said in a note to clients.

The Fed’s approach to its rate policies relies heavily on the latest turn in economic data. In the past, the central bank would have put more weight on where it envisioned inflation and economic growth in the coming months.

Yet now, “they don’t have any confidence in their ability to forecast inflation,” said Nathan Sheets, chief global economist at Citi and a former top economist at the Fed.

“No one,” Mr. Sheets said, “has been successful at forecasting inflation” for the past three to four years.

Image used for representational purpose.
| Photo Credit: Reuters

The rupee recovered from the lower level and appreciated 7 paise to 83.44 against the U.S. dollar in early trade on June 5, taking cues from domestic equity markets and lower crude oil prices overseas.

Forex traders said the rush for value-buying triggered an uptrend in equity markets, boosting the local currency which saw a steep decline on June 4 after the general elections results showed a less-than-expected majority for the BJP-led NDA.

Also read | Markets bounce back in early trade after massive drop on value-buying at lower levels

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.50 and recovered some lost ground to trade at 83.44 against the greenback, registering a rise of 7 paise from its previous close.

On Tuesday, the domestic currency settled at 83.51 against the dollar.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.09% higher at 104.14.

Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, slipped 0.03% to $77.50 per barrel.

On the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex climbed 172.89 points to 72,251.94 in early trade. The NSE Nifty went up 39.25 points to 21,923.75.

Both the indices ended more than 6% lower on Tuesday amid fear selling after the counting of votes showed disappointing results for the BJP-led NDA in the Lok Sabha elections with the alliance facing losses in its strongholds in the Hindi heartland, although it is expected to form the government with about 290 seats.

Foreign investors were net sellers of Indian equities on Monday as they offloaded shares worth ₹12,436.22 crore on a net basis. FIIs bought shares worth ₹26,776.17 crore and sold equities worth ₹39,212.39 crore in the cash segment.

Image used for representational purpose.
| Photo Credit: Reuters

The rupee appreciated by 3 paise to 83.10 against the U.S. dollar on May 28, tracking a positive trend in domestic equities and weakness of the American currency in the overseas market.

Forex traders rupee is likely to trade with a positive bias tracking a positive trend in domestic equities and expectations of fresh foreign inflows, however, a recovery in crude oil prices may cap a sharp upside.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.14 and gained further ground to trade at 83.10 against the greenback, registering a gain of 3 paise from its previous closing level.

On Monday, the rupee pared its initial gains and settled for the day lower by 3 paise at 83.13 against the U.S. dollar.

The opening for the rupee on Tuesday was flattish and the $/₹ pair should move within a narrow range of 83.00 to 83.20, said Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury and Executive Director, Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP.

Importers need to keep buying in dips, as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may possibly not allow a big move downside for the pair, Mr. Bhansali added.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading at 104.42, lower by 0.12%.

Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, advanced 0.24% to $83.30 per barrel.

Going ahead, “the performance of Indian equities is expected to be a significant driver for the rupee, especially as investors position themselves ahead of the Lok Sabha election results scheduled for June 4,” said CR Forex Advisors MD Amit Pabari.

Given these factors, the rupee is expected to appreciate to around 82.80–82.50 in the near term, with medium-term projections ranging between 82.20 and 82.00, Mr. Pabari added.

On the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex was trading 124.2 points, or 0.16% higher at 75,514.70 points. The broader NSE Nifty rose 47.95 points or 0.21% to 22,980.40 points in initial trade.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on Monday, as they offloaded shares worth ₹541.22 crore, according to exchange data.

Image used for representational purpose.
| Photo Credit: Reuters

The rupee appreciated by 12 paise to 83.17 against the U.S. dollar on May 24, tracking a bullish trend in domestic equities, wherein benchmark indices scaled new peaks.

Forex traders attributed the rally to ₹2.11 lakh crore record dividend by the RBI to the government for the fiscal ended March 31. It was more than double the budgeted expectation, helping shore up revenue ahead of a new government taking office.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.26 and gained further ground to trade at 83.17 against the greenback, registering a gain of 12 paise from its previous closing level.

The forex market was closed on Thursday on account of ‘Buddha Purnima’.

On Wednesday, the rupee appreciated by 2 paise to settle at 83.29 against the U.S. dollar.

After a trading holiday on Thursday, the Indian rupee was on a strong footing following a big transfer of ₹2.11 lakh crore in the form of dividend from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to the Union government, which would improve not only government finances but also allow leverage to spend more on infrastructure, said Anil Kumar Bhansali Head of Treasury and Executive Director Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading at 105.11, higher by 0.01%.

Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, advanced 0.05% to $81.40 per barrel.

“The overall outlook for the rupee appears strongly positive, with the Nifty 50 reaching an all-time high. These factors indicate that India remains a focal point for investors, with potential for the rupee to appreciate.

“In the short term, the rupee is expected to approach levels of 83.00 to 83.10, while the medium-term target is projected to range between 82.80 and 82.50,” CR Forex Advisors MD Amit Pabari said.

On the domestic equity market, both the benchmark indices scaled new peaks. The 30-share BSE Sensex was trading 51.21 points, or 0.07% higher at 75,469.25 points. The broader NSE Nifty breached the 23,000 level in initial trade.

Moreover, the market capitalisation of listed companies on the NSE surpassed $5 trillion (Rs 416.57 trillion) on Thursday on a day when the Nifty 50 index touched an all-time high of 22,993.60.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net buyers in the capital markets on Thursday, as they purchased shares worth ₹Rs 4,670.95 crore, according to exchange data.

File picture of former DPIIT secretary Ramesh Abhishek, whose premises have been raided by the Enforcement Directorate
| Photo Credit: Kamal Narang

The Enforcement Directorate on Tuesday raided the premises of retired IAS officer and former Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT) secretary Ramesh Abhishek as part of a disproportionate assets linked money laundering probe against him, official sources said.

The ED case stems from a recent CBI FIR registered by the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) against the 1982-batch officer. He was raided by the CBI in February.

Mr. Abhishek retired in 2019 from the DPIIT (erstwhile Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion).

The ED is searching the premises of Mr. Abhishek as part of a money laundering investigation, the sources said.

The CBI had alleged in its FIR that Mr. Abhishek enriched himself “illicitly” after retirement by receiving “huge amounts” as consultation fee from private companies whose matters he had dealt while in service.

The CBI and ED have also booked his daughter Vanessa.

The retired officer also held the post of chairman, Forward Markets Commission, and the CBI case was booked against him on a reference from anti-corruption ombudsman Lokpal.

The Lokpal has alleged that the father-daughter duo received big amounts as professional fee from various entities and organisations with whom the former IAS officer had official dealings as the secretary or the chairman.

Representational image of a traffic signal in the foreground of the Bombay Stock Exchange on Dalal Street. File

Equity benchmark indices declined in early trade on Tuesday in line with weak trends from Asian markets and fresh foreign fund outflows.

The BSE Sensex declined 218.11 points to 73,787.83. The NSE Nifty dipped 97.45 points to 22,404.55.

Among the Sensex components, Nestle, Mahindra & Mahindra, Bajaj Finserv, Axis Bank, Hindustan Unilever and ICICI Bank were the major laggards.

Tata Steel, Power Grid, Tata Steel and Asian Paints were among the gainers.

In Asian markets, Seoul, Shanghai and Hong Kong were trading lower while Tokyo quoted in the positive territory.

Wall Street ended mostly higher on Monday.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) offloaded equities worth Rs 92.95 crore on Saturday, according to exchange data.

Global oil benchmark Brent crude declined 0.56% to $83.24 a barrel.

The BSE benchmark climbed 88.91 points or 0.12% to end at 74,005.94 in a special trading session on Saturday. The NSE Nifty advanced 35.90 points or 0.16% to 22,502.

The National Stock Exchange (NSE) and BSE conducted a special trading session in the equity and equity derivative segments on May 18 to check their preparedness for handling major disruptions or failures at the primary site.

Among individual stocks, Nestle India fell over 2%, walking back gains made in the previous session, as the shareholders of the local arm voted against a royalty hike to Swiss parent Nestle SA.

The KitKat chocolate maker was the top loser on the benchmark Nifty.

Bharat Electronics rose 9% to a record high after reporting a 30% jump in March-quarter profit.

Oil India rose about 4% to an all-time high after reporting a rise in fourth-quarter profit.

Markets were closed on May 20 due to the fifth phase of the Lok Sabha elections in Mumbai.

Image used for representational purpose.
| Photo Credit: Reuters

The rupee appreciated 3 paise to 83.42 against the U.S. dollar in early trade on May 6, supported by a firm trend in domestic equities.

Forex traders said the strength of the American currency in the overseas market and foreign fund outflows weighed on the local unit and restricted the up move.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.43 against the greenback. It later touched 83.42 in initial trade, registering a rise of 3 paise from its previous close.

On Friday, the rupee inched up 1 paisa to settle at 83.45 against the U.S. dollar.

Indian rupee has not been able to make a dent against the dollar as FPIs and oil companies continue to buy U.S. dollars and ensure it remains range bound, as RBI protects it from depreciation beyond 83.50, said Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury and Executive Director Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading at 105.16, higher by 0.13%.

“The dollar was broadly steady as a soft U.S. jobs report boosted traders that the U.S. may still cut rates twice in 2024,” Mr. Bhansali said.

Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, rose 0.23% to $83.15 per barrel.

On the domestic equity market front, the 30-share BSE Sensex climbed 434.04 points or 0.59% to 74,312.19 in early trade. The NSE Nifty advanced 91.60 points or 0.41% to 22,567.45 points.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on Friday, as they offloaded shares worth ₹2,391.98 crore, according to exchange data.

Meanwhile, India’s forex reserves dropped $2.412 billion to $637.922 billion as on April 26, in the third consecutive weekly decline in the reserves, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said on Friday.

In the previous reporting week, the overall reserves had declined $2.28 billion to $640.33 billion.