Fresh concerns triggered by the devastating glacial collapse along the Nepal-China border are unlikely to sway Beijing’s plans to go ahead with the construction of a mega dam on the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo, or the Brahmaputra River, in a seismically active region in Tibet near the border with India.

On July 23, 2026, a month before the August 26 flash flood and mudslides, China released its 15th Five-Year Plan for renewable energy, which called for advancing the construction of major projects, including the Yarlung Zangbo Lower Reaches Hydropower Project, as the mega dam project is referred to in China.

Underscoring the importance accorded to the plan, China’s Vice Premier Zhang Guoqing visited Nyingchi in Tibet, near the border, in April this year. “We must shoulder the principal responsibility for project‑building and build this landmark mega project of the new era,” he was quoted as saying, adding that the government would “put quality first, safety as the foundation, strictly enforce construction standards and ecological‑environmental‑protection requirements, and keep construction progress subordinate to quality and safety.”

‘Project of the century’

At a groundbreaking ceremony in July 2025, China’s second-ranked leader and Premier Li Qiang, who travelled to Nyingchi, announced the start of construction of what he called “the project of the century”. A total investment of 1.2 trillion Yuan (around ₹14 lakh crore) was announced for the construction of five power stations.

Since then, there has been little public information about the project, although Mr. Zhang’s visit this year shed some light on how the project will go forward, including the setting up of the new State-run China Yajiang Group to run the entire project, which he inspected.

China has already opened one major dam on the middle reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo at Zangmu. A State media report earlier this month lauded the construction of the dam, saying it had “provided a solution to nearly 26 percent of electricity demand in Southwest China’s Xizang [Tibet] Autonomous Region”, the report said, detailing an elaborate “fishway” designed to help fish move between upstream and downstream sections. The report quoted design engineer Zhang Lianming as saying the fishway would likely be used for future projects.

In June this year, a “final acceptance meeting” of the Zangmu project was held, declaring that the dam, which started construction in 2010, had generated 22.2 billion kilowatt-hours of energy “equivalent to saving approximately 7.4 million tonnes of standard coal and cutting carbon dioxide emissions by around 22.2 million tonnes”.

The energy generation of the new project near the India border, where the course of the Yarlung Zangbo stunningly falls over the “great bend” and turns towards India, is expected to easily dwarf Zangmu.

While there have been no official projections, Chinese analysts project 60 GW installed capacity and 300 billion kilowatt-hours of power a year, more than three times the Three Gorges.

While the project has been described as a “run-of-the-river” dam, it will also involve the construction of a reservoir. This is likely to be located in the town of Mainling, upstream of Nyingchi, a prefecture-level city that is also home to a key airport, according to an analysis published on Wednesday by David Fishman, a Shanghai-based analyst writing on energy who looked at reports of relocations to ascertain the likely location. The water will be diverted at the top of the great bend into an approximately 40-km-long tunnel, Mr. Fishman wrote on his Substack, “Crossing the River”, as its descending force powers five 12-GW powerhouses before rejoining the river.

India’s concerns

Of concern to India is how much water is likely to be stored in the reservoir and how the tunnel will affect downstream flows, as well as possible broader ecological impacts. The lack of information has posed an obstacle in assessing the possible impact.

Later this month, India and China will hold a meeting of the Expert-Level Mechanism on Trans-border Rivers. However, the sharing of hydrological data, officials say, has not been regular and has on occasion been suspended during difficult periods in relations.

Asked about the project, China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun said last year that Beijing “always maintained a highly responsible attitude toward transboundary river development and has rich experience in hydropower project development”. He said the “construction of the project is beneficial for disaster prevention and mitigation throughout the entire river basin and will not have adverse effects on downstream areas”.

“China has conducted hydrological reporting, flood control, and disaster reduction cooperation with relevant downstream countries and has also engaged in necessary communication regarding the project,” he said.

Published – September 05, 2026 09:37 pm IST

Sarbananda Sonowal.
| Photo Credit: R. RAGU

Adding to the concerns expressed by Chief Ministers of Assam and Arunachal Pradesh over China’s proposed new dam over the Brahmaputra river in Tibet, Union Minister of Ports, Shipping and Waterways Sarbananda Sonowal on Friday said that India’s rights should be protected.

At the second meeting of the Inland Waterways Development Council (IWDC) presided over by Mr. Sonowal here, the Inland Waterways Authority of India announced investments worth more than ₹50,000 crore in the next five years and also revealed a series of new initiatives across 21 inland waterway States worth over ₹1,400 crore.

“Our rights have to be well guarded and well protected,” Mr. Sonowal said to a question from The Hindu on the issue of China’s new dam. Officials in the know said that the exact nature and extent of the impact on India as a lower riparian nation has to be studied but it is bound to have an impact given the scale and size of the project.

If the dam comes up, the Brahmaputra ecosystem will become completely fragile, Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma had said earlier. “If the dam construction starts in China, the entire ecosystem that thrives on the Brahmaputra will reduce by 60%. This is disastrous for the entire Northeastern region,” he said earlier this week.

The Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) has stated that it conveyed its “concerns” to China about the proposed mega hydropower project in the upstream Yarlung Tsangpo, which is the Tibetan name of Brahmaputra that flows through Arunachal Pradesh and Assam. “As a lower riparian State with established user rights to the waters of the river, we have consistently expressed, through expert-level as well as diplomatic channels, our views and concerns to the Chinese side over mega projects on rivers in their territory,” MEA spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said last week.

According to Chinese media, Beijing has approved the construction of the world’s largest dam, estimated at $137 billion on the Brahmaputra river in Tibet close to the Indian border.

Major upgrade of waterways

At the second edition of IWDC, which is the apex meet for policy deliberation on the promotion and propagation of inland waterways in the country, Mr. Sonowal said that over ₹23,000 crore has been earmarked for development of new national waterways and green shipping initiatives in inland waterways.

The first edition of the IWDC meeting was held in Kolkata last year.

A major policy initiative in the form of Riverine Community Development Scheme was mooted at the second edition of IWDC to improve the socio-economic well-being of coastal communities by developing infrastructure, promotion of trade and tourism along with riverine ecosystem, providing skill enrichment trainings and upgrading traditional knowledge of river of the communities in an attempt to upgrade the quality of lives of the people living by the banks of the national waterways.

“IWDC has anchored a new vista for cooperative federalism as both the governments at Union and the States discussed, deliberated, debated and dwelled on multiple aspects for strengthening of inland waterways. Historically, the role of inland waterways has been paramount for civilisations,” Mr. Sonowal stated. He said they are attempting to rejuvenate the support system of inland waterways so that railways and roadways can be decongested while also providing a viable, economic, sustainable and efficient mode of transportation for both passengers and cargo operators.

The day-long deliberations saw the Ministry explaining various initiatives launched and attempting to troubleshoot issues that have been held up, as senior officials were present and representatives from various States, including some Transport Ministers, raised their issues and sought clarifications.

Top performing cargo vessel owners were awarded for their role in the use of national waterways for movement of goods. The Central Database Module and issuance of certificates was launched with an aim to smoothen out the process of certification for vessel owners.

In an effort to ensure seamless and sustainable movement of Inland vessels and also ensure its safety, the National River Traffic and Navigation System (NRT&NS) has been launched.

Mr. Sonowal made several announcements including 1,000 green vessels to be launched in the next five years to boost green shipping in inland waterways, expansion of Kochi’s Water Metro Project to 15 cities of India including Guwahati, ship repair facilities to be established at more national waterways, 62 new jetties across States to ramp up inland waterways transport, Quick Pontoon Opening Mechanism to be installed at all operational national waterways for seamless passenger movement as well as eight amphibian dredgers and four cutter suction dredgers to maintain fairway of waterways.