Ahead of the 30th edition of the climate talks scheduled in Belem, Brazil, in November, major emitters appear to be dithering on declaring updated climate goals. Only 29 out of 195 countries have so far submitted their updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC). These are voluntary targets, updated every five years by countries to regulate fossil fuel emissions. So far, all countries that are signatory to the United Nations climate convention have submitted NDCs detailing emission targets upto 2030.

The European Union, a bloc of 27 member nations, and historically the group that has been a leader in advocating that countries undertake ambitious cuts to fossil fuel production, is yet to evolve consensus among its member countries on what their NDCs should be.

EU members are set to vote this week on two climate agreements. One of them is an internal, legally binding commitment to reduce emissions — relative to 1990 — by 90% by 2040, and be on the path to carbon neutrality by 2050. The other is to agree on a 2035 target, to time with the NDC requirements of COP30 (30th Conference of Parties).

The Hindu has learnt from multiple sources familiar with the EU’s climate negotiations that there was “disagreement” among its member countries that were yet to be ironed out, with some major EU member countries, including France and Germany, preferring that a vote on the matter be postponed. They indicated, however, that the EU would announce its updated NDC before COP30 commences on November 10. The EU has a rotating presidency with Denmark, currently in charge and looking to evolve consensus among members for an ambitious climate agreement.

The Russia-Ukraine war, the withdrawal of the United States from the Paris Agreement, the Trump tarrifs, the growing prominence of right-wing political parties, and increased spending on defence budgets has been skimming “attention away” from climate goals.

This year — 10 years after the Paris Agreement — with Andre Lago, COP President and veteran Brazilian diplomat, saying that this would be an “implementation” COP rather than stressing on a headline-grabbing cover text to signal forward movement on ambition, new coalitions on a leadership role appear to be forming.

While the U.S.’s Democratic Party-led administrations have historically been an ally to the European Union’s climate goals, the turned political climate in the U.S. has seen the EU look elsewhere for support.

This July, the EU, and China, the latter being the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases to the EU’s fourth, released a joint statement on climate that the Paris Agreement was the “cornerstone of international climate cooperation,” and that they were “committed to…Submitting before COP30 their respective 2035 NDCs covering all economic sectors and all greenhouse gases and in alignment with the long-term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement”.

The 2015 Paris Agreement, which 195 countries have ratified, requires countries to submit updated NDCs every five years to show the steps undertaken by them to keep average temperatures from rising, “as far as possible”, above 1.5C by the end of the century, and certainly below 2C.

Countries were expected to submit their NDCs in February but have an official deadline of the September 30, or during the ongoing United Nations General Assembly session in New York.

This year, the updated NDCs of countries are expected to be a major theme at the COP in Brazil.

While China, along with India — the world’s third largest polluter — has consistently argued for its “right” to use fossil fuel for economic development, China’s profile as a supplier of critical minerals necessary in manufacturing batteries and photovoltaic cells meant that it could no longer “afford to be seen as not championing an accelerated shift away from fossil fuel”, a person familiar with the climate administration at the EU said.

The EU has said that it was on track and “closing in collectively” on a 55% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions over 1990 levels, as committed in the European Climate Law, and was reaching a share of at least 42.5% of renewable energy by 2030.

India too is yet to declare its updated NDC though it has said it is on track towards achieving it. This includes reducing its GDP emissions intensity by 45% over 1990 levels, ensuring half its electricity capacity is from non-fossil fuels, and creating a carbon sink of 2.5-3 billion tonnes by increasing forest cover.

The United Nations’ climate bureau held an urgent meeting on Tuesday (July 29, 2025) over concerns that sky-high accommodation prices for this year’s COP30 climate summit in Brazil could price poorer countries out of the negotiations, according to diplomats and a document seen by Reuters.

Brazil is preparing to host this year’s UN climate summit in November in the rainforest city of Belem, where nearly every government in the world will gather to negotiate their joint efforts to curb climate change.

Concerns about logistics have dogged preparations for COP30. Developing countries have warned that they cannot afford Belem’s accommodation prices, which have soared amid a shortage of rooms.

In an emergency meeting of the U.N. climate body’s “COP bureau” on Tuesday (July 29, 2025), Brazil agreed to address countries’ concerns about accommodation and report back at another meeting on August 11, said Richard Muyungi, chair of the African Group of Negotiators, who called the meeting.

“We were assured that we will revisit that on the 11th, to get assurances on whether the accommodation will be adequate for all delegates,” Mr. Muyungi told Reuters after the meeting.

He said African countries wanted to avoid trimming their participation because of the cost.

“We are not ready to cut down the numbers. Brazil has got a lot of options in terms of having a better COP, a good COP. So that is why we are pushing that Brazil has to provide better answers, rather than telling us to limit our delegation,” Mr. Muyungi said.

Another diplomat familiar with the meeting said complaints about affordability came from both poor and wealthy nations.

An agenda for Tuesday’s (July 29, 2025) meeting, seen by Reuters, confirmed it was convened to address “operational and logistical preparations for the Climate Change Conference in Belem” and the African Group of Negotiators’ concerns on the matter.

Brazil’s Foreign Ministry did not immediately reply to a request for comment. Brazilian officials organising the summit have made repeated assurances that poorer countries will have access to accommodation they can afford.

A spokesperson for the UN’s climate body, UNFCCC, declined to comment on the meeting.

Cruise ship hotels

Brazil is racing to expand the 18,000 hotel beds usually available in Belem, a coastal city of 1.3 million, to host the roughly 45,000 people projected to attend COP30.

The government this month said it had secured two cruise ships to provide 6,000 extra beds for delegates. It also opened bookings to developing countries for more affordable accommodation at daily rates of up to $220.

That is still above the “daily subsistence allowance” the UN offers some poorer nations to support their participation at COPs. For Belem, the figure is $149.

Two UN diplomats showed Reuters quotes they had received from hotels and property managers in Belem for rates of around $700 per person per night during COP30.

Officials from six governments, including wealthier European nations, told Reuters they had not yet secured accommodation because of high prices, and some said they were preparing to reduce their participation.

A spokesperson for the Dutch government said it may need to halve its delegation compared with recent COPs, when the Netherlands sent around 90 people during the two-week event, including envoys, negotiators and youth representatives.

Poland’s deputy climate minister Krzysztof Bolesta told Reuters earlier this month: “We don’t have accommodation. We’ll probably have to cut down the delegation to the bone.”

“In an extreme event, maybe we will have to not show up,” he said.